The document discusses techniques for evaluating and selecting aircraft. It provides 5 methods:
1) Value analysis compares aircraft specifications to price through statistical analysis.
2) Cost per trip and cost per seat matrix is commonly used but can be biased by manufacturers.
3) U curve technique models costs of capacity vs frequency to define optimal capacity.
4) Optimum operating curve models costs to define an airline's optimal operating parameters.
5) Profit and unutilized market share matrix models multi-stop routes, considering profits and unused capacity to select aircraft. The document argues airlines should independently evaluate their needs rather than rely on manufacturer analyses.
this is head to head study for aircraft evaluation and selection, it address, value analysis, cost per trip vs cost per seat, U curve techique, and optimum operating curve
Allocate the right aircraft capacity, it is new approach , addressing, Rask and cask or catk, by using the concept of U curve technique, for two costs , i.e cost of offering seat and cost losing the opportunity, resulting in right capacity and optimum frequency
Is Low Cost Carrier Profitable, this time we hold differents senarios by varing load factors and fares, the network is huge and large 128 sectors. hope to enjoy
What make airlines gain profits while the others fall in losses !!!
How LCC creates profits in a recession time ….
Is Airline Industry a profitable Industry !!!
What are various strategies in such cases…
And how to survive in this miss !!!!!!!
Evolving Airport Competition - Competition & Pricingkopila
The presentation shows the competition that evolves between neighbouring airports. It also examines the strategies which airport operators can adopt to make the airport more competitive for their businesses. The second part deals with User Development Fee (UDF) pricing and application of crystal ball simulation on UDF.
This virtual simulation program was developed to help airline management teams understand competitive market dynamics and improve problem solving and decision-making skills.
Find out more at: http://www.iata.org/airline-business-simulation
this is head to head study for aircraft evaluation and selection, it address, value analysis, cost per trip vs cost per seat, U curve techique, and optimum operating curve
Allocate the right aircraft capacity, it is new approach , addressing, Rask and cask or catk, by using the concept of U curve technique, for two costs , i.e cost of offering seat and cost losing the opportunity, resulting in right capacity and optimum frequency
Is Low Cost Carrier Profitable, this time we hold differents senarios by varing load factors and fares, the network is huge and large 128 sectors. hope to enjoy
What make airlines gain profits while the others fall in losses !!!
How LCC creates profits in a recession time ….
Is Airline Industry a profitable Industry !!!
What are various strategies in such cases…
And how to survive in this miss !!!!!!!
Evolving Airport Competition - Competition & Pricingkopila
The presentation shows the competition that evolves between neighbouring airports. It also examines the strategies which airport operators can adopt to make the airport more competitive for their businesses. The second part deals with User Development Fee (UDF) pricing and application of crystal ball simulation on UDF.
This virtual simulation program was developed to help airline management teams understand competitive market dynamics and improve problem solving and decision-making skills.
Find out more at: http://www.iata.org/airline-business-simulation
HOW TO MEASURE AIRCRAFT TYPE CAPACITY? AN INNOCENT QUESTION WITH BIG CONSEQUE...DanielSALLIER
In this contribution I will introduce a new unit to measure aircraft type capacity. Aircraft type capacity is a quantity used in long term fleet forecast the type Airbus and Boeing are publishing every year or in long term forecast of movements by (generic) aircraft types the airports have to perform for future infrastructure dimensioning (terminals, aprons, stands, etc.). Aircraft capacity is downscaled at cabin level (1st, business class, etc.) leading to the contribution analysis of the different market segments to flights revenue/profit.
Aircraft type capacity has been stated in number of seats for ever. Unfortunately the seat count of an aircraft type is a very unsteady data to play with: airlines operate different seat counts even for the same aircraft type which keep changing all the time. Isn't it an inadequate unit leading to incorrect measurements which result in misleading analysis at the very origin of bad decisions?
To start with, we will have a critical look at how the aircraft type capacity is measured by the major players of the air transport industry. Then we will look at how cabin area could prove to be a far more adequate unit. Then we will question different ways of measuring it so that it can allow direct and consistent comparisons between different aircraft types. To finish with we will look at how seat counts and cabin areas can relate to each others and illustrate with an example how to reassess market segment income/profit contribution per flight.
This presentation address two case studies,
Thai Air Domestic, and Air Asia, to study the difference between the models by developing the learning curve of both airlines.
Airline Start up is hard issue for investors, today airline try to survive in this high competitive industry, this presenting address new tools that guide and put airline in the right way
With increasing fuel prices, what was previously a mere ideal or means of increasing the maximum passenger carrying capacity to maximize the amount of revenue has now become a vital economic and environmental investment.
Find also more relevant presentations here: http://bit.ly/aircraft-seating
A Regional Airline interconnecting the Middle EastMohammed Awad
This presentation address the main challenges for airline, Decided the Right Aircraft capacity for point to point airline operating Model, and profit maximization for multi stops operating airline model using the concept of optimization ( U curve Concept )
Explains in detail what Revenue Passenger Kilometer & Yield is. There are 7 examples to illustrate the explanations. There are 2 exercises to test the reader's knowledge.
Check Interval Escalation, this is a hard topic for airlines, it mostly deliver and governed by aircraft manufactures, it needs a strong back ground in statistics, but it has a great impact on maintenance cost, and it is not widely familiar and implemented in the airline industry.
This is a network analysis addressing yemenia network, considering SANAA as the main hub of the airline, it use U curve, and developing optimum operating curve for yemenia - yemen airways
The term overbooking is usually related with the reservation system of an airline, which means booking a number of passengers
than the offering capacity of the aircraft, to minimize the effect of no-show passengers percentage, as this no-show is in the last
minute before takeoff of the flight means losing a secure revenue to be earned and losing seats that can be utilized or resold for
that same flight, so the process is a balancing between the two terms overbooking and no-show, the income of the first compensate
the lose caused by the second.
These articles published in CAMA, having the following titles 1- Accuracy of Forecasting Model (Coefficient of Determinations vs. Signal Tracking ) 2- Head To Head Analysis, A320 Family VS B737NG (Value Analysis) 3- Forecasting by Objectives ( Airport Forecasting ).
Overbooking policy for airline is one of the main channels that enhance revenue and improve profit; it should be carefully implemented to avoid any negative effects of denied boarding impact especially on the brand name for the airline. It should be address the best strategy that minimize cost between no-show cost and denied boarding cost, by implement cost based overbooking model ( U curve technique )
Airport Forecasting, is a collection articles which published in CAMA magazine, most of the airports of the world are forecasted, by using a new concept, and approach i.e Max/Min signal tracking approach, while the accuracy of the model is addressing by mapping to main elements – Displacement and Rotational in the accuracy matrix. Hope to enjoy !
Engine Stock Control Using the concept of U curve technique, it is delivering the best solution based on Aircraft on ground cost and holding and inventory cost of the engine
Profit Maximization is addressing Multi-stop operating model of Airlines, it shows how to max. profit in terms of CASK and RASK analysis, delivering the best seniario to select the aircraft then the best result to operate the right segment
HOW TO MEASURE AIRCRAFT TYPE CAPACITY? AN INNOCENT QUESTION WITH BIG CONSEQUE...DanielSALLIER
In this contribution I will introduce a new unit to measure aircraft type capacity. Aircraft type capacity is a quantity used in long term fleet forecast the type Airbus and Boeing are publishing every year or in long term forecast of movements by (generic) aircraft types the airports have to perform for future infrastructure dimensioning (terminals, aprons, stands, etc.). Aircraft capacity is downscaled at cabin level (1st, business class, etc.) leading to the contribution analysis of the different market segments to flights revenue/profit.
Aircraft type capacity has been stated in number of seats for ever. Unfortunately the seat count of an aircraft type is a very unsteady data to play with: airlines operate different seat counts even for the same aircraft type which keep changing all the time. Isn't it an inadequate unit leading to incorrect measurements which result in misleading analysis at the very origin of bad decisions?
To start with, we will have a critical look at how the aircraft type capacity is measured by the major players of the air transport industry. Then we will look at how cabin area could prove to be a far more adequate unit. Then we will question different ways of measuring it so that it can allow direct and consistent comparisons between different aircraft types. To finish with we will look at how seat counts and cabin areas can relate to each others and illustrate with an example how to reassess market segment income/profit contribution per flight.
This presentation address two case studies,
Thai Air Domestic, and Air Asia, to study the difference between the models by developing the learning curve of both airlines.
Airline Start up is hard issue for investors, today airline try to survive in this high competitive industry, this presenting address new tools that guide and put airline in the right way
With increasing fuel prices, what was previously a mere ideal or means of increasing the maximum passenger carrying capacity to maximize the amount of revenue has now become a vital economic and environmental investment.
Find also more relevant presentations here: http://bit.ly/aircraft-seating
A Regional Airline interconnecting the Middle EastMohammed Awad
This presentation address the main challenges for airline, Decided the Right Aircraft capacity for point to point airline operating Model, and profit maximization for multi stops operating airline model using the concept of optimization ( U curve Concept )
Explains in detail what Revenue Passenger Kilometer & Yield is. There are 7 examples to illustrate the explanations. There are 2 exercises to test the reader's knowledge.
Check Interval Escalation, this is a hard topic for airlines, it mostly deliver and governed by aircraft manufactures, it needs a strong back ground in statistics, but it has a great impact on maintenance cost, and it is not widely familiar and implemented in the airline industry.
This is a network analysis addressing yemenia network, considering SANAA as the main hub of the airline, it use U curve, and developing optimum operating curve for yemenia - yemen airways
The term overbooking is usually related with the reservation system of an airline, which means booking a number of passengers
than the offering capacity of the aircraft, to minimize the effect of no-show passengers percentage, as this no-show is in the last
minute before takeoff of the flight means losing a secure revenue to be earned and losing seats that can be utilized or resold for
that same flight, so the process is a balancing between the two terms overbooking and no-show, the income of the first compensate
the lose caused by the second.
These articles published in CAMA, having the following titles 1- Accuracy of Forecasting Model (Coefficient of Determinations vs. Signal Tracking ) 2- Head To Head Analysis, A320 Family VS B737NG (Value Analysis) 3- Forecasting by Objectives ( Airport Forecasting ).
Overbooking policy for airline is one of the main channels that enhance revenue and improve profit; it should be carefully implemented to avoid any negative effects of denied boarding impact especially on the brand name for the airline. It should be address the best strategy that minimize cost between no-show cost and denied boarding cost, by implement cost based overbooking model ( U curve technique )
Airport Forecasting, is a collection articles which published in CAMA magazine, most of the airports of the world are forecasted, by using a new concept, and approach i.e Max/Min signal tracking approach, while the accuracy of the model is addressing by mapping to main elements – Displacement and Rotational in the accuracy matrix. Hope to enjoy !
Engine Stock Control Using the concept of U curve technique, it is delivering the best solution based on Aircraft on ground cost and holding and inventory cost of the engine
Profit Maximization is addressing Multi-stop operating model of Airlines, it shows how to max. profit in terms of CASK and RASK analysis, delivering the best seniario to select the aircraft then the best result to operate the right segment
Airlines can be define by a three parameters i.e Passengers, Fares , and Network Distance, yes there another important factor which is cost which can be define as step function to develop the optimum operating curve of the airline
Most of my published aviation articles are uploaded, this time it is Engish version, addressing Aircraft Evalution, Traffic Forecasting, Engine Stock Control and many unique topics
Today, most of the organizations quite advanced in involving multiple applications of strategic management.
In this paper I have tried to describe an effective and working Ryanair’s competitive strategy, approach and factors have accounted for Ryanair’s success. I also analyzed what are Ryanair’s distinctive capabilities and how they are implementing various strategies to attract and retain customers.
Filling the gap, it is concern a new idea in aviation industry, we can define an airline by three main factors, i.e Passengers demand, Market Fare, and Network distances, that is Stage Length, while Cost is consider as step function, the study shows there is a gap in locating the learning curve of the company to the typical operation one by using optimization techniques.
Airline Revenue - Case Study and Industry AnalysisFrank A.
Airlines are facing increased pressure to cut costs and optimize revenue. Technology and other innovative ideas will be presented to harness all the resources necessary to be as efficient and cost effective as possible. The advent of Big Data for the Airline industry is coming at exactly the right time. Just over 100 years in the making, the industry is poised to flourish. New entrants and globalization of the world economy through communication mediums are giving rise to demanding business models that strive to get and keep market share. It will be imperative for all industry players to use data and integrate into all cost saving and profit based business initiatives. This paper illustrates and investigates many spheres of the airline industry including all the facets where airlines may increase revenue, streamline processes, cut costs, and become as cost efficient as possible.
From Lose To Profit
It is a simulate case from Air To Land, three technique are applied
1- U curve Technique to define the right capacity
2- Defining the Right Fare Strategy.
3- Profit Maximizing
Aden Local Network is addressed in this study, many sectors are make profits, others are not.
Hope to enjoy
Overbooking policy for airline is one of the main channels that enhance revenue and improve profit; it should be carefully implemented to avoid any negative effects of denied boarding impact especially on the brand name for the airline. It should be address the best strategy that minimize cost between no-show cost and denied boarding cost, by implement cost based overbooking model (U curve technique)
Breakeven analysis and route profitability, for SAH-BAH-SAH using A320 aircraft, in this article we define fixed cost, variable costs and revenue. A program is developed and a dynamic impact and effect of changing Fare, Distance, Capacity, and market demand will immediately reflects in final results in defining the breakeven point and minimum passengers required.
This is a hard task for airlines, it just done only by manufactures, it is complicated topic, and need a huge efforts from all. Maintenance, Distributions, test, analysis, statistics,
The world of search engine optimization (SEO) is buzzing with discussions after Google confirmed that around 2,500 leaked internal documents related to its Search feature are indeed authentic. The revelation has sparked significant concerns within the SEO community. The leaked documents were initially reported by SEO experts Rand Fishkin and Mike King, igniting widespread analysis and discourse. For More Info:- https://news.arihantwebtech.com/search-disrupted-googles-leaked-documents-rock-the-seo-world/
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...dylandmeas
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey through Full Sail University. Below, you’ll find a collection of my work showcasing my skills and expertise in digital marketing, event planning, and media production.
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern BusinessesSynapseIndia
Stay ahead of the curve with our premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions. Our expert developers utilize MongoDB, Express.js, AngularJS, and Node.js to create modern and responsive web applications. Trust us for cutting-edge solutions that drive your business growth and success.
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Business Valuation Principles for EntrepreneursBen Wann
This insightful presentation is designed to equip entrepreneurs with the essential knowledge and tools needed to accurately value their businesses. Understanding business valuation is crucial for making informed decisions, whether you're seeking investment, planning to sell, or simply want to gauge your company's worth.
Memorandum Of Association Constitution of Company.pptseri bangash
www.seribangash.com
A Memorandum of Association (MOA) is a legal document that outlines the fundamental principles and objectives upon which a company operates. It serves as the company's charter or constitution and defines the scope of its activities. Here's a detailed note on the MOA:
Contents of Memorandum of Association:
Name Clause: This clause states the name of the company, which should end with words like "Limited" or "Ltd." for a public limited company and "Private Limited" or "Pvt. Ltd." for a private limited company.
https://seribangash.com/article-of-association-is-legal-doc-of-company/
Registered Office Clause: It specifies the location where the company's registered office is situated. This office is where all official communications and notices are sent.
Objective Clause: This clause delineates the main objectives for which the company is formed. It's important to define these objectives clearly, as the company cannot undertake activities beyond those mentioned in this clause.
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Liability Clause: It outlines the extent of liability of the company's members. In the case of companies limited by shares, the liability of members is limited to the amount unpaid on their shares. For companies limited by guarantee, members' liability is limited to the amount they undertake to contribute if the company is wound up.
https://seribangash.com/promotors-is-person-conceived-formation-company/
Capital Clause: This clause specifies the authorized capital of the company, i.e., the maximum amount of share capital the company is authorized to issue. It also mentions the division of this capital into shares and their respective nominal value.
Association Clause: It simply states that the subscribers wish to form a company and agree to become members of it, in accordance with the terms of the MOA.
Importance of Memorandum of Association:
Legal Requirement: The MOA is a legal requirement for the formation of a company. It must be filed with the Registrar of Companies during the incorporation process.
Constitutional Document: It serves as the company's constitutional document, defining its scope, powers, and limitations.
Protection of Members: It protects the interests of the company's members by clearly defining the objectives and limiting their liability.
External Communication: It provides clarity to external parties, such as investors, creditors, and regulatory authorities, regarding the company's objectives and powers.
https://seribangash.com/difference-public-and-private-company-law/
Binding Authority: The company and its members are bound by the provisions of the MOA. Any action taken beyond its scope may be considered ultra vires (beyond the powers) of the company and therefore void.
Amendment of MOA:
While the MOA lays down the company's fundamental principles, it is not entirely immutable. It can be amended, but only under specific circumstances and in compliance with legal procedures. Amendments typically require shareholder
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LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024Lital Barkan
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Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptxWorkforce Group
Cultivating and maintaining discipline within teams is a critical differentiator for successful organisations.
Forward-thinking leaders and business managers understand the impact that discipline has on organisational success. A disciplined workforce operates with clarity, focus, and a shared understanding of expectations, ultimately driving better results, optimising productivity, and facilitating seamless collaboration.
Although discipline is not a one-size-fits-all approach, it can help create a work environment that encourages personal growth and accountability rather than solely relying on punitive measures.
In this deck, you will learn the significance of workplace discipline for organisational success. You’ll also learn
• Four (4) workplace discipline methods you should consider
• The best and most practical approach to implementing workplace discipline.
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Aviation articles - Aircraft Evaluation and selection
1. Civil Aviation & Meteorology Authority (Yemen) April - June 2012, issue 15
Aircraft Evaluation & Selection
Airports Forecasting
Socotra Lovers Destination
www.camamagazine.com
Aviation Empire Invading the Sky
Emirates
United Arab
2. 22 study
Aircraft Evaluation & Selection
U
sually civil aircraft manufacture companies
implementing the best optimum solutions
for airlines, as they are try to convince
these airlines by the preference of their products
(aircrafts) namely Airbus Industries, Boeing
Group, Embraer , and ATR. While the recent
fierce competitive between Airbus and Boeing to
capture a major market share in aviation industry.
So consequently both parties recruit the
best expertise in marketing and sales skilling
techniques to secure transactions of millions
dollars and any failures from any party means
losing these millions. And accordingly they
use cost per trip and cost per seat matrix as
an important tool for evaluating and selecting
aircrafts, and to position their products in the
competitive market, so each one developed his
own analysis, that governs by the slogan “we
are the best in the airline industry” leading to an
contrary results for Airbus industries and Boeing
Group as shown in figure (1), this encourage
us to wrap up and list the modern economic,
scientific techniques for aircraft evaluation and
selection.
The Problem
By studying cost per trip and cost per seat
matrix for Airbus Industries and Boeing
Group we get contrary matrixes, as each
party insist by preference of their products
(Aircrafts) in spite, the analysis address the
same stage length, for the same type of
aircrafts, but with a different assumption of
the manufactures as shown in figures (1).
Mohammed Salem Awad
Research Scholar – Aviation Management
Figure (1) Cost per trip vs per seat Matrix For Boeing & Airbus
737-700
A319
-10%
-10%
+10%
+20%
Datum
+10% +20% +30%Datum
A320
A321
737-800 757-200
MD-83 MD-90
Relative direct operating cost per seat
The technology gap
Relative direct operating cost per trip
Fokker 100
98
-15
-15
0
15
30
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
MD-95
106
737- 600
1108
737- 700
126
A319
124
MD-88
142
A320 -200
150
A321 -200
183
A321 -100
183
737-800و
162
-14%
-8%
Relative direct operating cost
Relative
cost per
seat, %
Relative trip cost, %
500nm average sector
500nm average sector
CAMA Magazine | issue 15 | June, 2012
3. 23study
Summary
The study pointed out the importance of these techniques for Aircraft evaluation and
selection. Also we don’t recommend to relay on what aircraft manufacture suggest, as
they are marketing their product to secure selling their aircraft, as by the end of the day,
they are looking to secure the aircraft selling bids. So accordingly airlines should acts to
evaluates their needs based on their demand and operating network to define the optimum
operating curve, which reflects and consider as the thumb that define the airline, and its
existing fleet, which positioning and evaluate the current fleet financially, also it is indicate
clearly the preference and importance of optimum operating curve and profit – unused
market share matrix for evaluation and selection of aircrafts.■
Figure (2) Value Analysis
Aircraft Price
RelativeValues
Disappointment
Attractive
Figure.(4). U Curve Technique
CostinUS$
C Total Cost
Selected Parameter
A Cost of Services
B Cost
of Lose
Opportunity
Figure (5) Optimum Operating Curve
A321
A318
A320
A319
B737-800
B737-700
Capacity(Seat)
Cost per ATK
Figure (6) Decision Matrix - Right Aircraft
RelativeMarketOpportunity
A330-200
A310-300
B737-800
0.1
-0.1
0.4-0.4-0.8-1.2 0.8 1.2
0.2
-0.2
0.3
-0.3
0.0
Route: JED - SAH - DXB - CGK
Relative Profit
relative cost per tripSource: Corporate Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Evaluation
Decrease
aircraft
size
15%
15% 20%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
-5%
-10%
-10%
Type X shortened
Type X
New
Technology
Increase
aircraft
size
RELATIVEUNITCOST(PERSEAT)
unattractive
area
Type X shortened
Figure (3) Cost per Trip and Cost per Seat Matrix
Profit and Unutilized Market Share Matrix
The pre-mentioned methods (2, 3, and 4) are
applicable for point to point operating model
while this method can be use for multi stops
operating model, the cost element is already
calculated with the profit and the market
size include with unutilized market share.
So these two main elements can position
this matrix to define the right aircraft and the
right sector to operate. As in shown (6).
The main advantage of this approach is
to position the fleet of the company by
defining the existing cost and configuration
with the corresponding value of optimum
operating curve. As shown in figure (5).
Value Analysis
It is one of a main statistical analysis in
aviation science, which addressing and reflect
the technical parameters of the proposed
aircraft with respect of its price according to
the relation of coefficient of correlation, so a
graphical analysis is constructed and a best
line of fit is established which divide the area
into two parts, the upper one is attractive,
while the lower one is disappointment,
and accordingly it is easy to compare and
the select the best aircraft based on their
technical performance with respect the
market price as it is shown in figure (2).
Methods of Aircrafts Evolution and Selection
Actually cost per trip and cost per seat
matrix is a main important method for aircraft
evaluation in the recent time but there are
many unmentioned methods that are not
public yet, so basically the outcomes of
evaluation methods stand for what an analyst
looking for to explore it for top management,
some of these methods are listed below:
• Value Analysis
• Cost per Trip and Cost per Seat Matrix
• U Curve Technique
• Optimum Operating Curve
• Profit and Unutilized Market Share Matrix
Cost per Trip and Cost per Seat Matrix:
This is the classical method implementing by
aircraft manufactures, and it is an approved
and public method that used widely, so it
is a tool for the aircraft manufactures to
convince the airlines by the preference of
their products, usually an expert team is
assigned to collect, analysis data of the airlines
in two financial cost elements first is Cost of
Seat and the second is Cost per trip for the
design network, and they work it out so that
it adapts and fits their benefits, this is clearly
shown in figure (1) the contrary of Airbus
Industries and Boeing Group, while the basic
used of this method is shown in figure (3).
U Curve Technique
This is a mathematical model, where the
decision making is done based on the lowest
cost level, there curve is driven basically by two
cost elements, the first one is cost of offering
service (cost of offering seat) while the second
one is the cost of losing opportunity (cost of
losing revenue due to unavailability of seat)
where the right aircraft capacity can be define
by the market size (passengers demand),
applicable fare, and average stage length.
The main characteristics of this analysis
is solving the dilemma of capacity or
frequency as these two factors having a
great impact on operation of airlines, so by
increasing the capacity of aircraft, we are
expected the reduction in frequencies and
vice versa so the analysis can be define
the right capacity with optimum frequency
in one shoot. As it is shown in figure (4).
Optimum Operating Curve
Airlines can be define by its own
main three parameters:
First: Market Size
Second: Applicable Fares
Third: Average Stage Length
While the operating cost is used as step
function with defined stages (0.1 to 1) and
accordingly we can define and develop an
optimum operating curve of the airline.
Table No. (1): Comparison of the Aircraft Evaluation Techniques
No. Methodology Implementing situation Mathematical
Model
Power of
Analysis
1 Value analysis Studying technical specification Statistical Model XXX
2 Cost per trip and cost per seat Matrix Point to point operating model Spread Sheet
Solution
XXXX
3 U Curve Technique Point to point operating model Linear Program XXXXX
4 Optimum Operating Curve Point to point operating model Linear Program XXXXX
5 Profit and Unutilized Market Share Matrix Multi-stops operating Model Linear Program XXXXX
Comparison of the Aircraft Evaluation Techniques
CAMA Magazine | issue 15 | June, 2012
4. 30
Prepared by: Mohammed Salem Awad
Researcher in Aviation science
“The golden rule is that
there are no golden
rules”
George Bernard Shaw
Airports Forecasting
Figure (1). Recommended Forecasting Methods
Measuring Forecast Accuracy
Coefficient of Determination (R2 ) Vs Signal Tracking ( S. T.)
Usually in practicing forecast, the golden rule for fitting data is to define R2 as the best
indicator, this statement is not perfectly right ... why !!!!! It may indicate that, there is
relation between two sets of data, but not with minimizing errors, this can be explained
clearly by Turkish Airline data as shown in the figure (1),
The process started by a normal forecasting procedure and by test the Goodness of Fit
and calculating R2, then reduce the forecasting results by 500 and test the Goodness
of Fit by calculating R2, again reduce the forecasting results now by 1000 and test the
Goodness of Fit by calculating R2 . You will find that R2 is same for the three trails
which is (97%) this prove that R2 just indicate a relation between two set of data.
While there is another factor that refine the final results this factor is S. T. (Signal
Tracking). Which control and set to the acceptable level (Zero).
so Error = Actual Passengers – Forecast
Or et = At – Ft
while there are many other factors as:
Mean Forecast Error (MFE)
For n time periods where we have actual demand and forecast values:
Ideal value = 0;
MFE > 0, model tends to under-forecast
MFE < 0, model tends to over-forecast
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
For n time periods where we have actual demand and forecast values:
While MFE is a measure of forecast model bias, MAD indicates the absolute size of the
errors
Tracking Signal
Used to pinpoint forecasting models that need adjustment
As long as the tracking signal is between –4 and 4, assume the model is working
correctly.
In this analysis, we control the value of Tracking Signal to be Zero while R is evaluated
normally provided that it should be greater than 80%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
01-Jan-09
01-Mar-09
01-May-09
01-Jul-09
01-Sep-09
01-Nov-09
01-Jan-10
01-Mar-10
01-May-10
01-Jul-10
01-Sep-10
01-Nov-10
01-Jan-11
01-Mar-11
01-May-11
01-Jul-11
01-Sep-11
01-Nov-11
01-Jan-12
01-Mar-12
01-May-12
01-Jul-12
01-Sep-12
01-Nov-12
01-Jan-13
01-Mar-13
01-May-13
01-Jul-13
01-Sep-13
01-Nov-13
No.ofPassengersx1000
TIME
Turkish Airline - Traffic Forecasting 2012
Forecast -500
Forecast-1000
Actual
Forecast
All are same ( R2 ) = 97 %
S.T.= are different
2012(F) = …………… PAX
CAMA Magazine | issue 15 | June, 2012
5. 31AIRPORTS Forecasting
Airports Forecasting:
Airport forecasting is an important issue in
Aviation industry. It becomes an integral parts of
transportation planning. It sets targets and goals
for the airports, either for long term or medium term
planning. The primary statistical methods used in
airport aviation activity forecasting are market share
approach, econometric modeling, and time series
modeling.
Model Used:
Based on a historical data of the airports, (3 years
on monthly bases) the mathematical model is
developed where its fairness and goodness of fit can
be defined by two important factors:
R
2
(Coeff. Of Determination) > 80%
S. T (Signal Tracking) ..(-4 < S.T. < 4)
This time we set (S.T.) to Zero
Airport Performances:
There are many factors that may measure the airport
performance, mainly:
1) Number of Passengers
2) Aircraft Movement and;
3) Freight
SANA’A Airport
Sana’a International Airport or El Rahaba Airport
(Sana’a International) (IATA: SAH, ICAO: OYSN) is
an international airport located in Sana’a, the capital
of Yemen. Recently Yemen passes in a transition
phase, as results a democracy. This situation effects
on 2011 data base.
So the basic analysis addressing 2008, 2009, and
2010. And the forecasted period are 2011 and 2012.
But in this issue we are addressed the Domestic
segment.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 688,596 Pax
Peak Periods: not properly defined
Annual Growth : 19 %
The Model is good as R = 77%
Aircraft Movement Forecasting 2012 = 19,983
Peak Periods: not properly defined
Annual Growth: 29%.
The Model is hardly fitted as R = 73%
Freights &Mails Forecasting 2012 = 689 Tone. Peak
Periods: not properly defined
Annual Growth: - 5 %.
The Model reflects a lot of discrepancies as R = 45%
with a negative trends and growth, so results should
be take in caution.
yemen Airports
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
NoofPassengers
TIME (Month)
SANA'A Airport (Seasonlity Model)
Domestic Passengers Forecasting 2012
Forecast
Actual
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
01-Jan-08
01-Mar-08
01-May-08
01-Jul-08
01-Sep-08
01-Nov-08
01-Jan-09
01-Mar-09
01-May-09
01-Jul-09
01-Sep-09
01-Nov-09
01-Jan-10
01-Mar-10
01-May-10
01-Jul-10
01-Sep-10
01-Nov-10
01-Jan-11
01-Mar-11
01-May-11
01-Jul-11
01-Sep-11
01-Nov-11
01-Jan-12
01-Mar-12
01-May-12
01-Jul-12
01-Sep-12
01-Nov-12
Freight+Mails
TIME (Month)
SANA'A Airport (Seasonlity Model)
Freight & Mails inTonne Forecasting 2012
Forecast
Actual
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
01-Jan-08
01-Mar-08
01-May-08
01-Jul-08
01-Sep-08
01-Nov-08
01-Jan-09
01-Mar-09
01-May-09
01-Jul-09
01-Sep-09
01-Nov-09
01-Jan-10
01-Mar-10
01-May-10
01-Jul-10
01-Sep-10
01-Nov-10
01-Jan-11
01-Mar-11
01-May-11
01-Jul-11
01-Sep-11
01-Nov-11
01-Jan-12
01-Mar-12
01-May-12
01-Jul-12
01-Sep-12
01-Nov-12
NoofLanding
TIME (Month)
SANA'A Airport (Seasonlity Model)
Aircraft Movement Forecasting 2011-2012
Forecast
Actual
R
2
= 45%
S.T.= -0.00
2012(F)= 689
Annual Growth: - 0.05
R
2
= 73%
S.T.= -0.00
2012(F)= 19,983
Annual Growth= 0.29
R
2
= 77%
S.T.= -0.00
2012(F)= 688,596
Annual Growth: 0.19
CAMA Magazine | issue 15 | June, 2012
6. 32 AIRPORTS Forecasting
ARABIC Airports
Doha International Airport
(IATA: DOH, ICAO: OTBD) is the only commercial
airport in Qatar.. There are 60 check-in gates, 8
baggage claim belts and over 1,000 car parking
spaces.. As of 2010, it was the world’s 27th busiest
airport by cargo traffic. The existing airport will be
replaced in early 2013 when the first phase of New
Doha International Airport is expected to open. The
new airport is located 4 km from the current facility.
It covers 5400 acres (approx. 2200 hectares) of land
and will be able to handle 12.5 million passengers
per year after the first phase of construction is
completed. The airport is currently ranked as a
3-star by Skytrax.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 19,841,946 Pax
Annual Growth: 13%
The Model is fairly fitted as R
2
= 96%.
Queen Alia International Airport
(IATA: AMM, ICAO: OJAI) is Jordan’s largest
airport that is situated in Zizya ()زيزياء area, 20 miles
(32 km) south of Amman. The airport has three
terminals: two passenger terminals and one cargo
terminal. It is the main hub of Royal Jordanian
Airlines, the national flag carrier, as well as being a
major hub for Jordan Aviation. It was built in 1983
and is named after Queen Alia, the third wife of the
late King Hussein of Jordan.
Passenger Forecasting 2012= 5,623,315 Pax
Annual Growth: 4%
The Model is fair fitted as R
2
= 88%.
Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport
(formerly Beirut International Airport; IATA:
BEY, ICAO: OLBA; is located 9 kilometres (5.6
mi) from the city centre in the southern suburbs
of Beirut, Lebanon and is the only operational
commercial airport in the country. It is the hub for
Lebanon’s national carrier, Middle East Airlines.
It is also the hub for the Lebanese cargo carrier
Trans Mediterranean Airways, as well as the charter
carriers Med Airways and Wings of Lebanon. The
airport was selected by “Skytrax Magazine” as the
second best airport and aviation hub in the Middle
East; it came behind Dubai International Airport.
Passenger Forecasting 2012= 5,669,461 Pax
Annual Growth: 3%
The Model is fairly fitted as R
2
= 94%.
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
NoofPassengers
TIME (Month)
QAIA Airport (Seasonlity Model)
Passengers Forecasting 2012
Forecast
Actual
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
NoofPassengers
TIME (Month)
Beirut Airport (Seasonlity Model)
Passengers Forecasting 2012
Forecast
Actual
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
NoofPassengers
TIME (Month)
Beirut Airport (Seasonlity Model)
Passengers Forecasting 2012
Forecast
Actual
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2,200,000
NoofPassengers
TIME (Month)
Doha Airport (Seasonlity Model)
Passengers Forecasting 2012
Forecast
Actual
R
2
= 94%
S.T.= 0.00
2012(F)= 5,669,461
Annual Growth= 0.03
R
2
= 88%
S.T.= 0.00
2012(F)= 5,623,315
Annual Growth= 0.04
R
2
= 96%
S.T.= 0.00
2012(F)= 19,841,946
Annual Growth= 0.13
CAMA Magazine | issue 15 | June, 2012
7. Geneva International Airport
(IATA: GVA, ICAO: LSGG), formerly known as
Cointrin Airport and officially as Genève Aéroport,
is an airport serving Geneva, Switzerland. It is
located 4 km (2.5 mi) northwest of the city centre. It
is a major hub for EasyJet Switzerland and Darwin
Airline, a lesser hub for Swiss International Air Lines
and the former hub of Swiss World Airways, which
ceased operations in 1998. Geneva International
Airport has extensive convention facilities and
hosts an office of the International Air Transport
Association (IATA) and the world headquarters of
Airports Council International (ACI).
Passenger Forecasting 2012= 13,622,031 Pax
Annual Growth: 6%
The Model is fairly fitted as R
2
= 91%
Sydney (Kingsford Smith) Airport (also known as
Kingsford-Smith Airport and Sydney Airport)
(IATA: SYD, ICAO: YSSY) (ASX: SYD) is located in
the suburb of Mascot in Sydney, Australia. It is the
only major airport serving Sydney, and is a primary
hub for Qantas, as well as a secondary hub for
Virgin Australia and Jetstar Airways. Sydney Airport
is one of the oldest continually operated airports
in the world, and the busiest airport in Australia,
handling 36 million passengers in 2010 and 289,741
aircraft movements in 2009. It was the 28th busiest
airport in the world in 2009. Currently 47 domestic
destinations are served to Sydney direct.
Passenger Forecasting 2012= 36,346,492 Pax
Annual Growth: 2%
The Model is fairly fitted as R
2
= 84%
Annual Growth: 6.1%
The Model is fair fitted as R
2
= 96%
Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International
Airport
(IATA: YUL, ICAO: CYUL), formerly known as
Montréal-Dorval International Airport, is located on
the Island of Montreal. It is the busiest airport in
the province of Quebec, the third busiest airport in
Canada by passenger traffic and fourth busiest by
aircraft movements, with 13,660,862 passengers in
2011 and 217,545 movements in 2010. and it is one
of the main gateways into Canada with 8,436,165
or 61.7% of its passengers being on non-domestic
flights.
Passenger Forecasting 2012= 14,251,824 Pax
Annual Growth: 5%
The Model is fair fitted as R2
= 97%
33AIRPORTS Forecasting
international Airports
2,400,000
2,600,000
2,800,000
3,000,000
3,200,000
3,400,000
NoofPassengers
TIME (Month)
Sydney Airport (Seasonlity Model)
Passengers Forecasting 2012
Forecast
Actual
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
NoofPassengers
TIME (Month)
Montréal Airport (Seasonlity Model)
Passengers Forecasting 2012
Forecast
Actual
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
NoofPassengers
TIME (Month)
Genève Airport (Seasonlity Model)
Passengers Forecasting 2012
Forecast
Actual
R
2
= 84%
S.T.= 0.00
2012(F)= 36,346,492
Annual Growth= 0.02
R
2
= 91%
S.T.= 0.00
2012(F)= 13,622,031
Annual Growrh = 0.06
R
2
= 97%
S.T.= 0.00
2012(F)= 14,251,824
Annual Growth= 0.05
CAMA Magazine | issue 15 | June, 2012