At least 55%—this is the reductions target proposed by the European Commission for greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2030. There is no turning back from increasingly demanding climate policy. In its latest analysis, Forum Energii shows how Poland can meet this policy. The EU GHG emissions-reduction target does not mean that every country has to contribute equally. Keeping to the common goal but through different efforts, Poland’s contribution should be a reduction of between 44% and 51% of GHG emissions compared to 1990. This is a highly ambitious but achievable goal. In the analysis How can Poland achieve increased GHG emission-reduction targets by 2030?, we define the flagship projects in the power sector, transport, and heating.

1. HOW CAN POLAND ACHIEVE INCREASED
GHG EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETS BY 2030?
www.forum-energii.eu

2. Objectives of the analysis
•• We determine the GHG emission reductions resulting from the so-called flagship projects, i.e. actions
that are inevitable and around which social and political consensus can be built.
•• We estimate Poland's share in the EU's 55% target.
•• We count the reduction gap to be supplemented by other, not yet defined projects in industry,
agriculture and forestry.

3. 2030–new EU climate target
0
1990 2005 2018 2030
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
ANNUAL EU-27 GHG EMISSIONS IN RELATION TO THE EU 55% GHG REDUCTION TARGET
million tonnes of CO2
eq
POWER AND HEATING SECTOR TRANSPORT AGRICULTURE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY AND CONSTRUCTION OTHERS
-55%
2702 million tonnes
1683 million tonnes
remain to be reduced
Note: the category 'Others' mainly includes combustion of fuels not included in other sectors.
Source: based on data of the Eurostat, EEA.

4. Total annual GHG emissions in Poland and EU-27 in 2018
Note: the category 'Others' includes the other EU-27 countries.
Source: based on the data of Eurostat.
GHG emissions per capita [t]
Poland 10.87
Germany 10.34
Spain 7.12
Italy 7.08
France 6.64
EU average 8.42
ANNUAL TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS IN THE EU-27
0
OTHERS
1286.04
858.37
444.82 427.53 412.86
334.26
GERMANY FRANCE ITALY POLAND SPAIN
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400 million tonnes of CO2
eq

5. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
65.27
31.73
OTHERAGRICULTUREMANUFACTURING
INDUSTRY
AND CONSTRUCTION
TRANSPORTHEATING
AND DISTRICT-HEATING
SECTOR
POWER SECTOR
million tonnes of CO2
eq
72.60
33.12
92.14
117.70
GHG emissions structure in Poland by sectors in 2018
Note: the category 'Other' mainly includes combustion of fuels not included in other sectors.
Source: based on the data of Eurostat, EEA.

6. Changes in GHG emissions in Poland over the years
Source: based on the data of EEA.
million tonnes of CO2
eq
-13%
+3%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

7. FLAGSHIP PROJECTS

8. Our approach
Note: the result is corrected with actual reductions in the ETS sector for which 2019 verified data are already available. In the ETS, emissions decreased by 16.3 million tonnes
of CO2
eq compared to 2018.
•• We take into account the GHG emission reductions in Poland achieved in the period 1990-2018–13%.
•• We define flagship projects in the power sector, transport, heating and industry.
•• We calculate the projected decrease in emissions resulting from the implementation of these projects.
•• We define the reduction gap to be filled by other projects.

9. What are flagship projects?
•• Concrete actions that not only meet the emission reduction targets, but are necessary
from the perspective of:
– energy security (e.g. falling domestic coal production);
– the need for investment in energy efficiency and new generation sources;
– improving air quality.
•• Partly the flagship projects have already been declared important and to be implemented
by the government.

10. 1990 2018 2030
million tonnes of CO2
eq
178.7
117.7
59.7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
200
180
GHG EMISSIONS IN THE POWER SECTOR
-34.1%
-66.6%
Own estimates and calculations based on: Eurostat, EEA.
•• By 2030: replacement of coal, especially lignite by RES and partly natural gas;
•• Emissions reduction in this sector–66.6%.
Flagship project–change of mix in the power sector

11. •• Nearly complete phase-out of lignite capacities, shutdown of the last units by 2032;
•• Significant reduction of hard coal power;
•• Filling the coal gap in Poland with renewable sources and partially with gas.
Based on: Forum Energii, Modernising the European lignite triangle, 2020; 2032 lignite phase-out scenario.
What does it mean?

12. •• Moving away from coal in households to 2030 and partially in the heating
system; improving the energy efficiency of buildings;
•• Emissions reduction in the sector–48.5%.
Own estimates and calculations based on: Eurostat, EEA, URE.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
GHG EMISSIONS IN THE HEATING SECTOR
-14.3%
-48.5%
1990 2018 2030
million tonnes of CO2
eq 84.7
72.6
43.6
Flagship project–clean heat

13. •• End of hard coal in households by 2030;
•• Limiting the share of coal in system heating; full abandonment of coal by 2035;
•• Increase in the share of RES in the entire heat supply area to 39% in 2030;
•• 24% reduction in final energy consumption by 2030 compared to 2015 levels.
Based on: Forum Energii, Clean heat 2030. Strategy for heating, 2019; scenario IV.
What does it mean?

14. GHG EMISSIONS IN TRANSPORT
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 million tonnes of CO2
eq
+214.4%
+81.5%
20.77
65.3
37.7
1990 2018 2030
Own estimates and calculations based on: Eurostat, EEA.
•• Electrification of transport;
•• Slowing and reducing emissions compared to current levels.
Flagship project–electrification of transport

15. •• Electrification of transport, especially in cities;
•• Expansion of the charging infrastructure;
•• Promotion of rail and public transport; facilities for bicycles and pedestrians;
•• Tax policy reform;
•• Preparation of a roadmap for the decarbonisation of transport.
Based on: Transport Environment, Emission reduction strategies for the transport sector in Poland, 2018.
What does it mean?

16. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 million tonnes of CO2
eq
GHG EMISSIONS FROM MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
-25.9%
-40%
1990 2018 2030
42.8
25.7
31.7
Flagship project–innovative industry
Own estimates and calculations based on: Eurostat, EEA, NECP.
•• Increasing the energy efficiency of processes, less energy-intensive materials,
products that can be recycled;
•• Emissions reduction in the sector–40%.

17. •• Process energy efficiency improvements;
•• Less energy-intensive materials;
•• Recyclable products;
•• Industry decarbonisation strategy, taking into account the specificity of individual branches.
Estimates of emission reductions in idustry based on Poland's national energy and climate plan for 2021-2030.
What does it mean?

18. GHG emission reductions through flagship projects
Source: based on the data of Eurostat, own calculations.
The implementation of the flagship projects will allow to reduce GHG emissions by 42%.
TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS IN ALL SECTORS
1990 2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500 million tonnes of CO2
eq 475.08
275.91
-42%

19. EU target of 55% and Poland's contribution
44-51%
We estimate that Poland should reduce GHG
emissions compared to 1990, taking into
account the principle of a common goal, but
differentiated efforts.
42%
GHG emission reductions resulting from the
implementation of flagship projects in the power
sector, heating, transport and industry.
2-9%
The emission gap that we must fill with activities
in industry, agriculture and forestry.

20. Conclusions: 55%–only without panic
The target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% until 2030 is ambitious but achievable.
By adopting flagship projects, we can implement strategic goals for Poland and become part
of the EU climate policy.
Actions already taken (and those planned) in the power industry, heating and transport sectors
support the policy of the state. These trends need to be reinforced.
However, there are areas where no emission reduction strategies are in place–these are
industry and agriculture. Urgent action is needed here.

21. Recommendations
ALL SECTORS MUST PLAY A ROLE IN REDUCING EMISSIONS
ADOPTION OF FLAGSHIP PROJECTS
SETTING SECTOR GOALS
REVISION OF THE NATIONAL CLIMATE AND ENERGY PLAN

22. AUTHORS:
ALEKSANDRA GAWLIKOWSKA-FYK, PHD
MICHAŁ BORKOWSKI
www.forum-energii.eu