Shinzo Abe, former Prime Minister of Japan, was assassinated on July 8, 2022. He was shot twice from behind with a homemade firearm while giving a campaign speech. Abe was transported to a hospital but died from internal bleeding. The suspected shooter, Tetsuya Yamagami, is a 41-year-old former member of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces who said he was dissatisfied with Abe. The assassination may impact Japanese politics and geopolitics in Northeast Asia, especially regarding issues like nationalism and territorial disputes.

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Geopolitics.Λsia
Assassination of Shinzo Abe
and geopolitical implication

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• On 8 July 2022, Abe was making a speech on behalf of Councillor Kei Satō, a Liberal Democratic Party candidate running for re-
election, ahead of upcoming upper house elections scheduled on Sunday, 10 July. At approximately 11:30 a.m. JST (UTC+9), Abe was
shot at twice from behind with a double-barrelled improvised firearm, a homemade shotgun, and collapsed. The pellets were deep
enough to reach his heart.
• Abe was initially conscious and communicative right after he was shot. He was transported to a local hospital by an emergency
helicopter with a wound on the right side of his neck and internal bleeding under his left chest and was reported to have no vital signs
when he arrived at Nara Medical University Hospital in Kashihara. At a press conference held from 2:45 p.m., Prime Minister Fumio
Kishida said Abe was in a critical condition and that "doctors [were] doing everything they [could]”. Abe died at the hospital at 5:03
p.m., five hours after the shooting.
• Info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Shinzo_Abe
• Footage: https://mobile.twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1545256825238470657

3. What we know about the suspect so far?
• Tetsuya Yamagami (⼭上徹也), 41 years old, from Nara, former
member of the Maritime Self-Defense Force from 2002 to 2005.
• National broadcaster NHK said quoting police that the suspected
shooter is believed to have made the gun himself. While the security
was trying to nab the assailant at the scene of the attack, he did not
make an attempt to run away.
• When questioned, he said that he was dissatisfied with Abe so
decided to kill him.
• Kyodo later reported citing police that the shooter said he had “no
grudge against Abe's political beliefs”.
• According to earlier updates from NHK and Kyodo, Abe appeared to
be in “cardiorespiratory arrest” - a term used in Japan to describe a
feared death before it is officially confirmed by a coroner.
• A crisis management center was established at the prime minister's
office. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who was in Yamagata Prefecture
for the election campaign, cancelled his remaining schedule in order to
return to Tokyo.All other members of the incumbent cabinet were also
called back to Tokyo, with the exception of Foreign Affairs Minister
Yoshimasa Hayashi who was in Indonesia for G20 meetings, according
to Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno.
• https://www.timesnownews.com/world/shinzo-abe-shot-what-we-
know-so-far-about-shooter-tetsuya-yamagami-article-92739793
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4. (Former assessment on Japanese politics on September 5, 2020)

5. LDP’s Political Factions
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• Japan's former prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has visited a controversial war memorial just days after stepping down.
• Mr Abe posted a picture of himself at the Yasukuni Shrine, telling his followers he had gone there to inform the spirits of his resignation.
• He largely stayed away from the shrine, which honours Japan's war dead, but also convicted war criminals, during his time as prime
minister.
• Mr Abe's 2013 visit angered China and South Korea.
• Japan's occupation of its two neighbours ended with its defeat in 1945 and the conclusion of the Second World War.
• Visits by Japan's leaders to the shrine have previously been seen as a lack of remorse for its militaristic past. Neither China nor either of
the Koreas has reacted to this latest visit as yet.
• https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54216632

7. Japanese Right Wing (右翼団体, uyoku dantai)
• The Japan First Party, ⽇本第⼀党, Nippon Dai-ichi Tō, is one such group with traction in recent years. The political group
was formed by civil servant turned activist Makoto Sakurai. Sakurai originally led the 在⽇特権を許さない市⺠の会 zainichi
tokken o yurusunai shimin no kai (Association of citizens against the special privileges of foreigners) party which espoused
extreme anti-Korean views. After the party was branded a xenophobic hate group, Sakurai formed The Japan First Party.
• While political beliefs differ among the groups, they are often said to hold in common three philosophies: the advocation of
kokutai-Goji (retaining the fundamental character of the nation), hostility towards communism and Marxism, and hostility
against the Japan Teachers Union. Traditionally, they view Russia (and previously the Soviet Union), China, and North Korea
with hostility over issues such as communism, the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands and the Kuril Islands, and the kidnappings of
Japanese citizens by North Korea.
• "Sane Thinkers School" (正氣塾, Seikijuku) – a group based in Nagasaki Prefecture set up in 1981. Responsible for a
number of violent incidents, including the 1991 near-fatal shooting of the mayor of Nagasaki who stated that Emperor
Hirohito was responsible for the war.
• https://japantoday.com/category/features/opinions/what-%27uyoku-dantai%27-and-japanese-alt-right-groups-want
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uyoku_dantai ; https://www.vice.com/da/article/3b7b7b/uyoku-dentai-japans-growing-far-
right-movement
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8. Japanese Politics
• Current Government’s parties, LDP and Komeito,
command 293 seats in the lower house of national Diet.
• While key opposition parties, CDP/SDP (social liberal
wing), Ishin (right wing), DPP (conservative liberal), JCP
(left wing) and others, considered weak, can command
only 95 seats
• There is minimal momentum for the recent opposition
parties to recover since DPJ’s rising to power during
2009 - 2012 after the departure of the renowned Ichirō
Ozawa, the author of the famous book, “Blueprint for a
New Japan” (⽇本改造計画, Nihon Kaizō Keikaku).
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9. Data demonstrates political implication of
assassination
Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new data set of assassination attempts on all world leaders
from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify assassination’s
effects. We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find
that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of institutional change,
inform theories of conflict, and show that small sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history.
Our tests provide evidence that small elements of randomness - the path of a bullet, the timing of an explosion, small shifts in a
leader’s schedule - can result in substantial changes in national outcomes.
https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/jones-ben/htm/Assassinations%20Paper.pdf
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10. Possible implication of assassination
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The assassination of a political leader is among the highest-profile acts of political violence, and conventional wisdom holds that such events
often have substantial political, social, and economic effects on states. We investigate the extent to which the assassination of a head of state
affects political stability through an analysis of all assassinations of heads of state between 1952 and 1997. We examine the political
consequences of assassination by assessing the levels of political unrest, instability, and civil war in states that experience the assassination
of their head of state. Our findings support the existence of an interactive relationship among assassination, leader- ship succession, and
political turmoil: in particular, we find that assassinations’ effects on political instability are greatest in systems in which the process of leader-
ship succession is informal and unregulated.
DOI: 10.1177/0022002707310855

11. According to the joint staff office of Japan’s Ministry of Defence, the three vessels were spotted some 70km south of Yonaguni on July 1 and
made their way northeast through waters between Yonaguni and Iriomote Island.
The vessels were identified as the Udaloy-class destroyer Marshal Shaposhnikov, the Gremyashchiy-class corvette Gremyashchiy and a
Dubna-class tanker.
They sailed between the two Japanese islands in a waterway off Taiwan’s eastern county of Hualien on July 1 and 2 and moved into the East
China Sea, the office said.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/russian-warships-sailing-near-taiwan-090438726.html
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12. Geopolitical Assessment
• No clear motivation from the suspect so far, whether it’s from political motivation or from
personal reason. Need to wait for the police’s investigation.
• The suspect seems to plot the assassination for a long time with skillful. His background with
the Maritime Self-Defense Force enhances success hit rate. Until his pass away, Shinzo Abe
had still possessed high political influence inside LDP so far.
• Japan still has “hidden” right wings in the society awaiting to emerge to the surface.
Assassination is not a new thing, possibly trickers for more aggressive natinional agenda in the
future.
• Is highly likely to impact geopolitical rupture in Northeast Asia, in which it may reinforce the
existing Russo-Ukrainian War and global inflation. Possibly an early warning signal for major
geopolitical order shift.
• Negative view on global investment and geopolitical risk in the next 12-18 months
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