Russo - Ukrainian War Update II: How the fox wars read through the fog of war

1. usso - krainian War Updates II:
How the fox wars read though the fog of war
Kan Yuenyong
[as of February 26, 2022, GMT+7; D-Day+2]
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2. https://www.understandingwar.org/
backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-8
• Russian forces entered major Ukrainian cities—including Kyiv and
Kherson —for the first time and carried out additional air and
missile strikes on military and civilian targets.
• Russian forces entered the outskirts of Kyiv on the west bank of
the Dnipro River as Russian sabotage groups in civilian clothing
reportedly moved into downtown Kyiv.
• Ukrainian forces have successfully slowed Russian troops on the
east bank of the Dnipro, forcing them to bypass the city of
Chernihiv after stout resistance. Russian airborne forces have
concentrated in southeastern Belarus, likely for use along the
Chernihiv-bypass axis toward Kyiv in the next 24 hours.
• Russian forces will likely envelop Kharkhiv in the next 24 hours
after failing to enter the city through frontal assaults on February
24-25.
• Russian forces have achieved little success through frontal
assaults or envelopments against Ukrainian forces in Donbas but
may not have intended to do more than pin Ukrainian forces in the
east.
• North of Crimea, Russian forces fully captured Kherson and are
likely on the verge of seizing Melitopol in the east. Unconfirmed
reports indicate that Russian forces bypassed Kherson earlier and
headed directly for Mykolaiv and Odessa.
• Russian forces may be assembling in Stolin, Belarus, to open a
new line of advance against Rivne in western Ukraine.
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3. Other Assessments
https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1497235770259746821 https://mobile.twitter.com/newsmap_pl/status/1497514780524830721
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4. UNSC vote on a draft resolution condemning Russia’s
aggression against Ukraine, based on resolution 3314
Condemn Russia’s Invasion (for Ukraine)
Albania, Brazil, France, Gabon, Ghana, Ireland,
Kenya, Mexico, Norway, United Kingdom,
United States of America
(co-sponsored by 81 member states)
• The resolution has been rejected because of veto power from a permanent member of UNSC
• Next stage, might trigger “Obligatory Abstention” from permanent members, but with “soften language” and constructive resolution
• https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2022/02/ukraine-vote-on-draft-resolution.php
• https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2014-04/in_hindsight_obligatory_abstentions.php
Abstain
China, India, United Arab Emirates
Against and Vetoes
Russia
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5. Recent Sanctions Against Russia
• (February 23, 2022) The US has imposed sanction one Nord Stream 2 AG and its corporate officers
• (February 24, 2022) (1) Severing the connection to the U.S. financial system for Russia’s largest financial
institution, Sberbank, including 25 subsidiaries, by imposing correspondent and payable-through account
sanctions. (2) Full blocking sanctions on Russia’s second largest financial institution, VTB Bank (VTB),
including 20 subsidiaries. (3) Full blocking sanctions on three other major Russian financial institutions:
Bank Otkritie, Sovcombank OJSC, and Novikombank and 34 subsidiaries. (4) New debt and equity
restrictions on thirteen of the most critical major Russian enterprises and entities. (5) Additional full blocking
sanctions on Russian elites and their family members: Sergei Ivanov (and his son, Sergei), Nikolai
Patrushev (and his son Andrey), Igor Sechin (and his son Ivan), Andrey Puchkov, Yuriy Solviev (and two real
estate companies he owns), Galina Ulyutina, and Alexander Vedyakhin.
• SWIFT sanction (considered to be “nuclear option”) is on table and might be further discussed (recently
objected by Germany, Italy and Hungary). Recently the German congress has pressured the Chancellor to
adopt the SWIFT sanction.
• The sanctions pose severe effect over Russian economy, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
International_sanctions_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
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6. Interesting China’s Reaction
• (1) ICBC stopped issuing U.S. dollar-denominated letters of credit for purchases of physical Russian commodities
ready for export, and (2) Bank of China Ltd. has also curbed financing for Russian commodities based on its own risk
assessment, see https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/chinese-state-banks-restrict-financing-for-
russian-commodities
• This perhaps because Putin didn’t notice any invasion plan over Ukraine to Chinese authorities, despite several
warnings from Washington whom shared its intelligence report, see: https://news.yahoo.com/u-officials-repeatedly-
urged-china-132921273.html
• This is because Putin is only the major power to officially visit and endorse Beijing Winter Olympic and thus a joint
statement on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development, February 4,
2022, http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770.
• However, Beijing issues a position on (1) the United States and NATO have long turned a blind eye to Russia’s
legitimate security concerns, and have repeatedly negated their promises to Russia, (2) Russia should have high-level
negotiation with Ukraine,(3) China has long held the basic position of respecting all countries’ sovereignty and territorial
integrity, and abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, and (4) reject Cold War mentality, take seriously
and respect the reasonable security concerns of all countries and reach a balanced, effective and sustainable European
security mechanism through negotiation, see https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202202/
t20220225_10645701.html
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7. –Carl von Clausewitz
“War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on
which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser
uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a
skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.”
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8. Recent Interpretation On Russian Military Strategy
• Shock and Awe: Starting from massive air raid and sabotage over adversaries’ electronic and communication
channel in order to control air supremacy, and thus sending massive ground force, therefore, it’s a military doctrine
based on the use of overwhelming power, dominant battlefield awareness, overpowering maneuvers, and
spectacular displays of force to paralyze an adversary's perception of the battlefield and destroy its will to fight.
• Soviet Deep Battle: encompassed manoeuvre by multiple Soviet Army front-size formations simultaneously. It was
not meant to deliver a victory in a single operation; instead, multiple operations, which might be conducted in
parallel or successively, would induce a catastrophic failure in the enemy's defensive system. Deep battle
envisaged the breaking of the enemy's forward defenses, or tactical zones, through combined arms assaults, which
would be followed up by fresh uncommitted mobile operational reserves sent to exploit the strategic depth of an
enemy front.
• Modern Warfare: Employs precision strike and several small tactical military units, must be equipped and
cooperated with enhance command and control (C2), the most advanced C2 is within The Joint Artificial Intelligence
Center (JAIC)’s edge computing by neuromorphic processors, the Joint All Domain Command and Control (JADC2),
and a wireless mesh network (WMN). This is to gain advantage over adversaries’ anti-access/area denial (A2/AD).
Latest modern warfare might operate with technologies such as exoskeleton technologies, military robot and drone,
and self-healing armor patches. Russian Military modernization such as Rutnik program -> Sotnik, spine skeleton
gear, rostec (vertical & horizontal integration in military complex) still can’t match with the US.
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9. Recent Assessment on Russian Operation over Ukraine
• It seems Moscow tries to blend the mentioning three strategies together.
Started with traditional psyops, cyber-warfare, and deception.
• But initial precision strikes seemed to be very minimal (compared to Gulf
war), perhaps because lack of enough funding, and therefore it will ruin
civilians rather than military target
• Russian military faces strong resistant from Ukrainian military (and also
civilian volunteer), reflects strong Ukrainian identity and patriotism
• Ukrainian military, despite smaller units and limited equipments, but can
use modern warfare better than the Russian military and applying
smartly with asymmetric tactical operation recently
• If Russian military can’t capture Kyiv and can’t pacify Ukrainian military
within 7 days military operation, it will be an uphill task to achieve
military objective
• Even the Russian military can capture Ukraine, the next phase of war will
be urban warfare and insurgency which is very difficult to suppress,
considering Syrian civil war and Nazi German-occupied Ukraine.
Considered from “will to fight” from most Ukrainian civilians this is highly
possible. The US and the West will support the finance and equipments. g Geopolitics.Λsia
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https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/
1497520235179556864

10. The New Russian Bear Trap?
• Many officials and analysts suspect Putin plans to go big, trying to grab
as much of the country as possible. That’s led to the distinct possibility
that Washington might aid a Ukrainian insurgency, especially if Russia’s
military takes all or much of Ukraine.
• During the 1980s, Washington armed and funded Afghan rebels trying
to push the Soviet Union out of their country. The Soviets eventually
left, but the violence in the country didn’t stop as Afghan militias turned
on each other, eventually giving rise to the Taliban.
• Funding and arming Ukrainian insurgents is the type of plan that could
get significant support in Congress, but it’s also an effort that requires
patience and long-term thinking.
• There is a discussion over the new Russian bear trap among
geopolitical strategist in Washington, but it’s in disputed because of
ethical issue, needs to be patient to wait for a very long time frame, and
also the strategy might be cancelled from the new president
• See https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/biden-troops-russia-
ukraine-00011049
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“That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of
drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to
regret it? The day that the Soviets officially crossed the border, I
wrote to President Carter, essentially: “We now have the
opportunity of giving to the USSR its Vietnam war." Indeed, for
almost 10 years, Moscow had to carry on a war that was
unsustainable for the regime , a conflict that bought about the
demoralization and finally the breakup of the Soviet empire.” -
Zbigniew Brzezinski, https://dgibbs.faculty.arizona.edu/
brzezinski_interview

11. Putin, the rational thinker or the madness?
• Many profiles of Putin have missed the mark, labeling him as a “thug” or seeing
him as a mere tool of larger, more intricate power structures or groupings, such
as the siloviki, Russia’s military, law-enforcement, and intelligence communities.
Such analyses of Putin’s political behavior have at times led to a lack of
predictive power regarding Russia’s actions or to heightened emotional
predictions of a new Cold War or military conflict between Russia and the West.
A careful reading of Putin’s writings, interviews, and speeches offers analysts a
treasure-trove of material, which can – if soberly assessed –reveal the many
faces of Vladimir Putin, including those of a politician, intelligence officer, martial
artist, and diplomat.
• As a leader, Putin has made great strides in bringing Russia out of its political
and economic morass of the 90s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union,
which he has referred to as “one of the greatest tragedies of the 20th century.”
While rising oil and natural gas prices during the 2000s positively impacted
Russia’s economy, allowing for a rise in standards of living, Putin’s sense of
organization, discipline, and deft management of domestic policy also played a
significant role in Russia’s political and economic restoration.
• Many have tended to see Putin as merely tactical, rather than strategic, but such
a view is mistaken. Seeing such labels as dichotomous, rather than as two sides
of the same coin, loses sight of Putin’s adaptability regarding foreign-policy
challenges, such as the Ukraine, Georgia, Syria, China, India, the U.S., and
Europe. At times, Putin has shown masterful flexibility, often reversing course
and shifting priorities, while not deviating from key strategic concerns and his
sense of Russia’s national interest.
• See Ich Putin - Ein Porträt: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TL40p3CJ88
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/the-many-
faces-of-vladimir-putin-a-political-psychology-profile
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12. SIU’s comprehensive “Meta-Geopolitics” Framework
https://www.geopolitics.asia/white-paper
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