Presentation by Michael Phillips at the Global Forum for Innovations in Agriculture (GFIA), Abu Dhabi, 9-11 March 2015.

1. Aquaculture Futures:
Supply and demand trends
Aquaculture Discovery Day,
Global Forum for Innovations in Agriculture (GFIA), Abu
Dhabi, 9-11 March 2015
Michael Phillips

2. Wealth and population growth are major drivers for
animal-source food consumption, including fish

3. Fish is essential for food and nutrition
security

4. Fish is essential for food and nutrition
security
Percentages of animal-based protein consumed in 2009
(100% = 31 g / capita / day)

5. Fish is most important in Africa and Asia

6. Wild fish stocks have peaked
Million tons
Note: “Wild catch” includes finfish, mollusks, crustaceans, and other aquatic animals from
marine and freshwater ecosystems. It excludes all aquaculture. Source: WRI/FAO (2014).

7. Aquaculture has emerged to meet fish demand
Million tons
Sources: WRI (2014) FAO (2012a), FAO (2012b), FAO (2013), FAO (2014).

8. Aquaculture is diverse
Production (2012), 100% = 66.6 million tons
Source: WRI (2014)

9. Nearly 90 percent of aquaculture production is in Asia
Tons (2012)

10. Aquaculture production must more than double by
2050 to satisfy projected fish demand
Million tons
Sources: Production data 1961–2010: FAO (2014a), FAO (2014b).
Aquaculture production projections 2011–2050: Authors’ calculations
assuming a linear growth rate of 2 Mt per year.

11. Aquaculture growth to 140 Mt by 2050 could
contribute to economic development
Source: Authors’ calculations based on FAO (2014) and World Bank,
FAO, and IFPRI (2013).
$308BFarm gate value / year
176MLivehoods

12. Aquaculture projections by 2030
• Middle East and Africa – 1.1 to 1.9 mt
• Africa - 0.30 to 0.46 mt
Source: World Bank (2014)

13. Growth in demand and need

14. Aquaculture converts feed to food efficiently
Percent or “units of edible output per 100 units of feed input”
Sources: Terrestrial animal products: Wirsenius et al. (2010), Wirsenius (2000). Finfish and shrimp:
WRI (2014) analysis, based on USDA (2013), NRC (2011), Tacon and Metian (2008), Wirsenius
(2000), and FAO (1989).
Note: “Edible output” refers to the calorie and protein content of bone-free carcass.

15. “Blue Frontiers” interventions for
sustainable growth of aquaculture
• Innovation
• Regulations and policy
• Technologies and management
• Monitoring and compliance
• Consumers, markets.
+ Investment

16. Innovations: sustainable intensification
and growth of aquaculture
• Land, water and energy
• GHG emissions
• Seed quality and genetics
• Feeds and feeding
• Fish diseases
• Environmental impacts
• Knowledge sharing and
technology delivery
• SME investment models

17. Regulations and policy
• Regulatory and public policy for sustainable investment and growth
• Self regulation and private standards

18. Consumers: the potential of fish
Bangladesh
•20 million people, particularly women
and children, suffer from deficiencies of
vitamin A, iron, and zinc
•Small indigenous fish in household
ponds provide a ready source
•Increasing the productivity of the 4
million ponds by 10 kg of small “Mola”
fish provides the daily Vitamin A
requirements for 7 million children

19. Investment: “Blue” investments
• US$50-70 billion in infrastructure needed by 2030
• Investment in SMEs

20. Outcomes
• Bring research to
scale through
commercial
investment
• Nurture early-stage
aquaculture SMEs and
prepare them for
commercial
investment
Impacts
• Successful businesses
producing affordable,
nutritious food for the
poor
• Better livelihoods for
those who rely on
fisheries & aquaculture
A WorldFish incubator

21. $20M 200,000
Investment
by 2020
Women and men
with improved
livelihoods by
2020
100,000
Hectares under
sustainable
practices by
2020
The WorldFish Incubator: Goals

22. Summary
• Aquaculture needs to grow to meet
future fish demand globally
• Investment into aquaculture growth in
Africa is critically important
• Fish is a nutrient rich animal source
food with low environmental impact
• Provides employment and income in
rural and peri-urban communities
• Investment and business opportunities

23. Thank You