Presentation in April 2015 to the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies about applying a futures perspective to anticipating the futures of conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.
The Third Era explores the forces shaping the futures of constitutional governance and suggests ways to begin reframing how we approach designing constitutional governance.
Presentation on Modernization Theory for PS 212 Culture and Politics in the Third World at the University of Kentucky, Summer 2007. Dr. Christopher S. Rice, Instructor.
The Third Era explores the forces shaping the futures of constitutional governance and suggests ways to begin reframing how we approach designing constitutional governance.
Presentation on Modernization Theory for PS 212 Culture and Politics in the Third World at the University of Kentucky, Summer 2007. Dr. Christopher S. Rice, Instructor.
Contemporary Globalisation is the collapsing of time and space with all the opportunities and challenges this presents for the social and economic development of the global community
The flip-side: world where financial melt-down, global warming, health pandemics and unchecked social media compromise the promise of a new global age – where is law in all of this?
Challenge for governance (domestic and global) to create a regulatory framework to assist the transition from a world focused on material profit to one valuing social sustainability. The North and South Worlds are grappling with this challenge
Cultural Evolution Society 2016 Voter's ManualJoe Brewer
The inaugural election will be held online starting on Monday, July 11th and ending six weeks later on August 22nd. During this time, CES members will have the opportunity to fill out a ballot to select their preferred candidates for the 13 positions on the Executive Committee.
You can use this manual to do the following:
1. Learn about the selection process for nominating and recruiting candidates for this election.
2. Read personal statements from each of the candidates to make informed decisions about which candidate you prefer for each officer position.
The first section, titled Full Disclosure of Election Procedures, explains the steps we took to ensure a fair election while striving to meet an ambitious set of diversity criteria. It is written in the spirit of radical transparency and inclusion to get this society started with the openness and integrity that will be essential to our long-term success as a multidisciplinary scientific (and practitioner) community.
This is followed by another section, called Get to Know Your Candidates, that provides brief bios and personal statements from the 23 candidates running for office in this election. Use these materials to become familiar with the excellent lineup of people who have expressed the passion and commitment to run for one of the officer positions: president, secretary, treasurer, member-at-large, or student representative.
This manual was prepared by the CES Elections Committee to assist with inaugural elections. We hope you find it helpful as you vote for the first Executive Council of the Cultural Evolution Society.
In studies of the networks of citations between scientific papers, Derek de Solla Price showed in 1965 that the number of links to papers—i.e., the number of citations they receive—followed a Pareto distribution or power law. Recent interest in scale-free networks started in 1999 with work by Albert-László Barabási and colleagues who mapped the topology of a portion of the Web, finding that some nodes, which they called "hubs", had many more connections than others and that the network as a whole had a power-law distribution of the number of links connecting to a node...
Contemporary Globalisation is the collapsing of time and space with all the opportunities and challenges this presents for the social and economic development of the global community
The flip-side: world where financial melt-down, global warming, health pandemics and unchecked social media compromise the promise of a new global age – where is law in all of this?
Challenge for governance (domestic and global) to create a regulatory framework to assist the transition from a world focused on material profit to one valuing social sustainability. The North and South Worlds are grappling with this challenge
Cultural Evolution Society 2016 Voter's ManualJoe Brewer
The inaugural election will be held online starting on Monday, July 11th and ending six weeks later on August 22nd. During this time, CES members will have the opportunity to fill out a ballot to select their preferred candidates for the 13 positions on the Executive Committee.
You can use this manual to do the following:
1. Learn about the selection process for nominating and recruiting candidates for this election.
2. Read personal statements from each of the candidates to make informed decisions about which candidate you prefer for each officer position.
The first section, titled Full Disclosure of Election Procedures, explains the steps we took to ensure a fair election while striving to meet an ambitious set of diversity criteria. It is written in the spirit of radical transparency and inclusion to get this society started with the openness and integrity that will be essential to our long-term success as a multidisciplinary scientific (and practitioner) community.
This is followed by another section, called Get to Know Your Candidates, that provides brief bios and personal statements from the 23 candidates running for office in this election. Use these materials to become familiar with the excellent lineup of people who have expressed the passion and commitment to run for one of the officer positions: president, secretary, treasurer, member-at-large, or student representative.
This manual was prepared by the CES Elections Committee to assist with inaugural elections. We hope you find it helpful as you vote for the first Executive Council of the Cultural Evolution Society.
In studies of the networks of citations between scientific papers, Derek de Solla Price showed in 1965 that the number of links to papers—i.e., the number of citations they receive—followed a Pareto distribution or power law. Recent interest in scale-free networks started in 1999 with work by Albert-László Barabási and colleagues who mapped the topology of a portion of the Web, finding that some nodes, which they called "hubs", had many more connections than others and that the network as a whole had a power-law distribution of the number of links connecting to a node...
Presentation on my theory-driven scenario method from the Scenario 2015: Improving Scenario Methodology conference held at Warwick Business School, December 14-15, 2015.
Cultural Contradictions of Scanning in an Evidence-based Policy EnvironmentWendy Schultz
An overview of the tensions that arise when attempting to embed a futures perspective, in the form of horizon scanning, in organisations with an evidence-based culture.
Crazy Futures aka Rx for Leadership Scotomas (why plausibility is maladaptive)Wendy Schultz
Short slidedeck on overcoming mental boundaries and expanding conceptual horizons in considering what possible futures may emerge, as a means to avoiding decision blindspots and black elephants / black swans.
Crazy Futures I an exploration on the necessity of pushing your thinking past...Wendy Schultz
Don't merely consider what you think is plausible - recognise that you may not have the whole story on emerging changes, and that what's emerging may shatter the bounds of what's currently 'plausible'. Get creative, test assumptions, test values and worldviews.
Collapse Scenarios, drawn from the Futures special issue on extinction scenar...Wendy Schultz
A prospective client asked for a presentation on societal collapse, with roughly a 400-year time horizon. As I had heard that Prof. Bruce Tonn was editing a special issue of Futures on extinction scenarios, I requested access to the essays ahead of publication. He kindly assented, and I drew on several of the essays to create this slidedeck of "collapse" scenarios (I wasn't asked to take the stories to complete extinction). Some of the stories I wanted to tell were not well-represented in the essays of the special edition, and so I drew on other resources as well. Finally, I chose to interpret "collapse" as "the end of the world as we know it," and thus also included a post-Singularity, nanotech, "mutable world" scenario. Please feel free to contact me (wendy@infinitefutures.com) if you have any questions.
China Impact in the New Asia Convergence Shermon Cruz
A decade ago, many have projected that China, with her intent of catching up with the West, will rise and surprise the world in gigantic ways.
Today, China is perceive as the epitome of grand narrative and vision that work. It is obvious that China is no longer a subsidiary matter but the larger issue that everyone has to grapple with.
There are more questions than answers but the interest of this paper tried to probe these questions: Will the rest of Asia benefit from what we call the rise of China? What are the hard and soft prospects in light of China’s expanding influence? Will these prospects create new opportunities for Asia and thus create the new Asia convergence? Or China being China wins it all leaving behind the prospects of other Asian nations to grow?
China has always defied our expectations and will continue to do so. But one thing or perhaps more things are certain: China’s dreams and visions of the future may be the most powerful in the world and Asia could use it as leverage in creating an alternative path for Asia.
BOOK DISCUSSION : NEW CONFESSIONS OF AN ECONOMIC HITMANRiri Satria
My presentation on book review discussion "The New Confessions of An Economic Hitman", organized by Indonesian Economics Scholars Assocation (Ikatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia), Jakarta chapter (20/05/2016)
James gander book philosophical diversions where are we goinggander01
Highlights of a book from award-winning author James Gander attack the coming unprecedented changes in population size, mobility, worldwide communications, cultural interactions, and unsustainable economic and environmental challenges, and shares observations that will promote solutions.
Brief presentation on world peace
They work hard
They are seldom appreciated
They do not get their due share from society
And no one likes them complaining
Even as they are abused… often by their own
Their lives akin to a languished and abused beast of burden, they are the women of Pakistan. This is a political party giving a voice and hope to women, though men and transgenders are equally welcome. We, the women of Pakistan, strongly believe that we have suffered, and are still suffering, as per our “About” page which gives a bit of a historical and statistical perspective too. Please join us on Facebook
12 Crore / 120 Million Women … are not a joke!
Our Mission
Reclaim Pakistan from the thugs, looters and self serving elites – the so called politicians, turn it around into a model state for the whole world to see. Adopting best practices from all over the world that serves our people best; implementing the same effortlessly with a competent team, in a transparent, accountable environment which nurtures creative problem solving and innovation.
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Normalization With Cuban Characteristics: How Might Cuba Navigate Normalizati...Larry Catá Backer
Cuba has constructed a tightly woven framework of macro-economic policy and political structures around a unique application of European Marxist-Leninism. That framework has proven durable even in the face of substantial economic crisis and a political situation increasingly subject to internal pressures. Closer working ties with the United States will only exacerbate the tensions and contradictions of the current system. If Cuba means to keep a Marxist-Leninist political structure, something will have to evolve.
Dynamic Stability: US Strategy for a World in Transitionatlanticcouncil
We have entered a new era in world history, a post-post-Cold War era that holds both great promise and great peril for the United States, its allies, and everyone else. We now can call this a "Westphalian-Plus" world, in which nation-states will have to engage on two distinct levels: dealing with other nation-states as before, and dealing with a vast array of important nonstate actors. This era calls for a new approach to national strategy called "dynamic stability."
The authors of this paper—Atlantic Council Vice President and Scowcroft Center Director Barry Pavel and Senior Fellow Peter Engelke, with the help of Assistant Director Alex Ward—kick off the Atlantic Council Strategy Paper series by telling the United States to seek stability while leveraging dynamic trends at the same time. The central task facing America is "to harness change in order to save the system," meaning the preservation of the rules-based international order that has benefited billions around the world, including Americans themselves, since 1945. Within its pages, the paper outlines the components of strategy in a swiftly-changing world.
Seattle Chinese Chamber of Commerce - The US-China RelationshipBenjamin Shobert
What can we say about this key relationship in light of the 2016 Presidential election? What changes should we anticipate? How do we work together to ensure trade and investment between the two countries continues to grow?
In this report we analyze the public discourse on poverty, inequality, charity, and aid to show how to get beyond the broken narratives that have hindered foundations and NGO's for the last three decades.
Recommendations are given for running campaigns based on our key findings...
US, Pakistan, India Relationship and a Positive New World Order
Promote (if) any ideas appeal to you
I’m a firm believer in the competence, resilience & emotional intelligence of women
Hence I launched www.WomenAreVotes.com with a GLOBAL VISION-an initiative to encourage and motivate women to leadership
This is all about empowering women to think LOCALIZED SOLUTIONS and ultimately the corridors of power for blanket solution to chronic problems
My vision for this is global, Rotary is global, hence I invite Rotarians to join me in encouraging and motivating women of the world
Donate to charity during this holiday seasonSERUDS INDIA
For people who have money and are philanthropic, there are infinite opportunities to gift a needy person or child a Merry Christmas. Even if you are living on a shoestring budget, you will be surprised at how much you can do.
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-to-donate-to-charity-during-this-holiday-season/
#charityforchildren, #donateforchildren, #donateclothesforchildren, #donatebooksforchildren, #donatetoysforchildren, #sponsorforchildren, #sponsorclothesforchildren, #sponsorbooksforchildren, #sponsortoysforchildren, #seruds, #kurnool
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Monitoring Health for the SDGs - Global Health Statistics 2024 - WHOChristina Parmionova
The 2024 World Health Statistics edition reviews more than 50 health-related indicators from the Sustainable Development Goals and WHO’s Thirteenth General Programme of Work. It also highlights the findings from the Global health estimates 2021, notably the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy and healthy life expectancy.
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
ZGB - The Role of Generative AI in Government transformation.pdfSaeed Al Dhaheri
This keynote was presented during the the 7th edition of the UAE Hackathon 2024. It highlights the role of AI and Generative AI in addressing government transformation to achieve zero government bureaucracy
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
CBO’s Outlook for U.S. Fertility Rates: 2024 to 2054
Scenarios, Black Swans, and Assumptions
1. Scenarios, Black Swans,
and Assumptions
A futures approach to anticipating conflict and cooperation in the
Asia-Pacific Region
Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies
APCSS, April 27, 2015
2. Richard Kaipo Lum, PhD
Vision Foresight Strategy LLC
“Reframing the future.”
www.visionforesightstrategy.com
richard@visionforesightstrategy.com
3. The Image of the Future. Fred Polak.
“No problem so persistently defies our skill at drawing
boundaries as the problem of the future, and no problem
presses quite so hard on our intellectual horizons.”
4. 1. Consider the role of images of the future
2. Look at assumptions and black swans
3. Explore different scenarios
4. Think about opportunities for collaboration
Objectives
6. Understand and anticipate change in society…
and then help others make desired and more
preferred changes.
7. “…system-changing, disruptive events are far more
common than most people imagine… And yet most
businesspeople behave as if they live in a continuous
environment, as if their business plans and projections
are going to be relatively linear.”
Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence. Peter Schwartz.
13. The Image of the Future. Fred Polak.
“Awareness of ideal values is the first step in the
conscious creation of images of the future and therefore
in the conscious creation of culture, for a value is by
definition that which guides toward a “valued” future.
The image of the future reflects and reinforces these
values.”
14. The Dominance of Imagery
Images of the future frame
expectations and priorities
Dominant images reveal the
conflicts that decision makers
expect and thus foster
15.
16. Modernity + Asia
Modernity absorbs the rising
economies, which rebalances the
world order.
This is China as a "responsible
stakeholder“ and a validation of the
liberal economic order and
Westphalian hard-boundaries political
map with which we are familiar. This
image expects the gradual, partial
expansion of representation in Chinese
government as it liberalizes and a
subsequent multiplicity of alliances
throughout the Indian Ocean rim.
17. The Middle Hegemony
China is the new dominant power and
the new role model
An instinctive image for hegemonic
power realists, this image is about the
decline of the West and the triumph of
China. It sees Chinese client-states
throughout the hemisphere, paying
21st century forms of tribute to
Beijing. In this image there is a further
weakening of the Westphalian norms
and the spread of nonrepresentative
governance models. The Confucian
worldview is ascendant and China
dictates policy from the Western
Pacific to the Arabian Gulf.
18. Fractured World
The international order “loosens,” with
states losing power to non-state
actors.
This image encompasses the various
“new middle ages” analogies that have
periodically gained ground since the
1970s. The stable, normalized society
of sovereign states unravels, leaving
behind multiple forms of polities with
a new multiplicity of cross-cutting
identities, loyalties, and power
relationships. Non-state actors and
non-state polities assume new roles
alongside remaining states.
21. • Blind Spots: places where you’re not looking
• Black Swans: low probability, high impact
• Wild Cards: random, external to the domain
Types of Surprises
22. The classic black swan
The fragility of knowledge and the limitations on our ability to use
experience and past observations to know the future.
"BlackSwan" by Ltshears - Own work. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons
23. Real Life Black Swans
Fall of
USSR
East Asian
financial
crisis
US
fracking
revolution
2011
tsunami
and
Fukushima
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis#/media/File:Asian_Financial_Crisis_EN-2009-05-05.png
28. Forecast Possibilities
• Moving forward from the
present
• Miss the complex dynamics
of the real world
• Miss the developments and
emergent patterns that
models can’t predict
Provoke New Thinking
• Leap to the future
• Allow us to consider
possibilities that linear
reasoning won’t reveal
• Enable us to consider things
outside of standard models
Different Uses for Scenarios
29. Status Quo Redux
• Constrained but
ongoing economic
and political
competition
alongside
continuing
cooperation in the
Asia-Pacific region.
Asia-Pacific Cold
War
• Deepening regional
bipolarization and
militarization,
driven by a
worsening US-China
strategic and
economic rivalry in
Asia
Pacific Asia-Pacific
• Increased US-China
and regional
cooperation and
tension reduction
Asian Hot Wars
• Episodic but fairly
frequent military
conflict in critical
hotspots, emerging
against a cold war
backdrop as
described in the
Asia-Pacific Cold
War scenario
Challenged
Region
• A region beset by
social, economic,
and political
instability and
unrest separate
from US-China
competition
Carnegie Scenarios
Most likely Least likely
Conflict and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Strategic Net Assessment. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
30. • Variables are classic macro-level elements from
mainstream security discourse
• State-centric
• Issues like climate change relegated to least
likely scenario
• Implicitly linear technology forecasts
• No consideration of technological revolutions
Unpacking Assumptions
31. While details change, the “security landscape” is always easily
recognizable
The scenarios entertain no meaningful systems change
These were attempts at “forecasting” rather than
“provocation”
Upshot: Fairly Conservative Scenarios
35. A Sampling of Emerging Issues
Anonymous Hybrid airships Digital fab Bioproduction Cryptocurrency
IoT UAVs for HA Cubesats IBM Watson Adaptive
Learning
36. Targeting Assumptions
• Complex issues – Confluence of Crises
• Non-state actors – Crowdsourced Order
• Tech revolutions – The Sixth Wave
• Disruptive technology – Quantum dark
37. Confluence of Crises
A confluence of climate change,
natural disasters, and non-state
actors produce a fractured regional
order.
• Climate change, IDPs, and refugees
• More frequent and severe events
• Rise in nationalism, protectionism
• Proliferation of violent non-state
actors: insurgencies, piracy
• Rise of human trafficking, black
markets; recruiting for VNSAs
• Still-stable states more forceful in
closing their borders
38. Crowdsourced Order
Empowered non-state actors begin
crowdsourcing a rules-based order in the
Indo-Pacific.
• Empowered, non-violent non-state
actors want to exercise greater
influence
• Competing Chinese and US agendas
seen as destabilizing
• Proliferation of “DIY ISR” networks
• Open source, transparency
• Greater, more effective collaboration
between NSAs than between states
• Crowdsourcing, crowdfunding
• Private companies solving complex
social challenges
• Non-national, non-state navy
39. The Sixth Wave
First industrial
revolution
Age of Steam and
Railways
Age of Steel,
Electricity, and
Heavy Engineering
Age of Oil, the
Automobile, and
Mass Production
Age of Information
and
Telecommunications
Age of digital biology
and nanoscale
science
A technological revolution of digital
biology and nanoscale science rewires
global economic life.
• Digital fab, bioproduction, and
automation
• Powerful means of production diffuse
across communities
• Nanoscale science enable cheap
substitutions of precious metals
• Political economies of resource-rich
states with poor governance are
undermined
• Attempts at anti-technology repression,
control of information
• Disruption to global industrial models,
trade and shipping patterns, geopolitics
40. Quantum Dark
Cryptography and autonomous
organizations create a new layer of
social, economic, and political
complexity.
• Quantum computing and
cryptographic technology
• Smart contracts and distributed
autonomous organizations
• Crypto-citizens, dark nations
• Dark tools proliferate across the
developing world, serving BoP needs
• Corporations try to use dark tools to
exert greater control over consumers
• Individuals, groups, and companies
evade state surveillance and control
42. Cooperation
Confluence of Crises Shared challenges, interdependence; Creating regional
resilience, anti-fragility
Crowdsourced Order Extending capabilities and influence through NSA partners
The Sixth Wave Leapfrogging economic well-being; Supporting
development and diffusion of new economic models
Quantum Dark Anticipating new hidden – and autonomous – layers of
economic life
Shared Foresight and Multistate Cooperation