This article provides a general analysis of some topics mentioned in the last National Intelligence Council report on the World in 2025. A focus is made on China’s potential, US challenges and the way to maintain the US leadership.
Over the next quarter century, the international order is likely to change considerably. A new geopolitical and macroeconomic context will necessitate a flexible strategy to maximise India's national interest.
In this Discussion Document, an analytical framework is developed to visualise possible New World Orders at the intersection of two axes. The first axis represents five possible geopolitical trends, organised by the degree of global polarity. The second axis represents four geoeconomic trends, based on the degree of growth, automation, trade, and labour movements.
In each scenario, the proposed strategies to maximise India's national interest are determined. The most frequently-occurring strategies are used to develop an agenda that will hold India in good stead, regardless of how the world shapes up.
Domestic Economic Reforms
Liberalise major sectors, implement labour and factor market reforms. Be an attractive destination for FDI.
Focus on the employment elasticity of growth in addition to growth itself. Collaborate with foreign universities for skilling the workforce.
Build a social security net to deal with inequality, unemployment, skill obsolescence, and an aging population.
Reforms for India’s engagement with the world at large.
Three critical military shifts needed: from land to sea, from the physical to the virtual (cyberwarfare); and from manpower to firepower.
Champion the cause of globalisation as movement of labour, goods, and services is critical for India’s growth.
Retain flexibility in terms of alignment: be open to larger partnerships and global projects, as well as unilateral action.
Partner with other middle powers, especially those concerned by G2 dominance.
China's military modernization is progressing but still lags behind other powers. It aims to build an informatized military capable of winning modern wars by mid-century. However, China faces immense domestic challenges like an aging society, income inequality, corruption, and environmental degradation that demand resources. Its lack of transparency about defense spending also creates uncertainties. Going forward, China will prioritize addressing internal issues while continuing military development, but still needs time to project large forces globally.
Determinants for International Relation
Instruments for foreign policy making
National interest
Non-Alignment Movement
Dimensions in International relations
Nuclear arms race between india and pakistan risesafaidiana
India and Pakistan have had a fraught relationship since gaining independence in 1947. Their rivalry has escalated due to the nuclear arms race between the two countries. The development of nuclear weapons by both India and Pakistan has been driven by ideology, history, and the modernization of weapons internationally. It also stems from the balance of power theory, as each country seeks to offset the other's military threat. During the Cold War, their tensions were exacerbated by domestic issues like the Kashmir dispute and religious divisions, as well as foreign interventions that altered the regional power dynamic. These factors have continued influencing their fraught relationship in the post-Cold War era.
U.S.A-China Relations, Is China A Friend Or An Enemy?, Policy And Politics International Perspective Paper, H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Spring 2006
Background: The relation between U.S.A and China has changed since 1980’s. Today the U.S is the world’s most developed country, while China is the world’s largest developing country. There is a cooperative partnership in many fields between USA and China which is beneficial for both sides. During the last two decades China has practiced remarkable changes. These changes compromise almost all aspects of Chinese society, as well as China’s relations with outside world. Since starting to open up and reform its economy in 1978, China has averaged 9.4 percent annual GDP growth, one of the highest growth rates in the world. China has also attracted hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign investment and more than a trillion dollars of domestic nonpublic investment. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has also increased dramatically, rotating China into the 2nd most important recipient of FDI, after the US.
Policy And Politics International Perspective Paper, H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Spring 2006:
The Soviet economy and society declined in the following decades until General Secretary Mikhail GORBACHEV (1985-91) introduced glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring) in an effort to renovate Communism, but his initiatives unintentionally released forces that by December 1991 splintered the USSR into Russia and 14 other independent republics. Since then, Russia has struggled in its efforts to construct a democratic political system and market economy to replace the strict social, political, and economic controls of the Communist period. While some progress has been made on the economic front, recent years have seen a recentralization of power under Vladimir PUTIN and the erosion of emerging democratic institutions.
China has rapidly emerged as an economic powerhouse over the past few decades through economic reforms and liberalization. Its annual GDP growth averaged 9.7% from 1979 to 2006, making it the world's second largest economy. China has also greatly expanded its trade relations, becoming the 3rd largest trade partner of both the US and ASEAN countries. While China still faces challenges in per capita income and financial development compared to Western nations, its huge population and investment in infrastructure, technology and education have propelled its economic rise. Some experts predict China may surpass the US as the world's largest economy within the next couple decades.
Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on the Indian EconomyShradha Diwan
The document discusses the global financial crisis that began in 2007 and its impact on the Indian economy. It provides background on the crisis, explaining that a loss of confidence in securitized mortgages in the US triggered a financial crisis that spread globally. It then examines four key ways India was affected: reduced global liquidity impacted foreign investment and lending; decreased consumer demand abroad hurt Indian exports; the IT industry saw clients like Lehman Brothers collapse; and foreign investment withdrawals led stock markets and the rupee to decline sharply. The response of Indian authorities and prospects for the economy are also assessed.
Over the next quarter century, the international order is likely to change considerably. A new geopolitical and macroeconomic context will necessitate a flexible strategy to maximise India's national interest.
In this Discussion Document, an analytical framework is developed to visualise possible New World Orders at the intersection of two axes. The first axis represents five possible geopolitical trends, organised by the degree of global polarity. The second axis represents four geoeconomic trends, based on the degree of growth, automation, trade, and labour movements.
In each scenario, the proposed strategies to maximise India's national interest are determined. The most frequently-occurring strategies are used to develop an agenda that will hold India in good stead, regardless of how the world shapes up.
Domestic Economic Reforms
Liberalise major sectors, implement labour and factor market reforms. Be an attractive destination for FDI.
Focus on the employment elasticity of growth in addition to growth itself. Collaborate with foreign universities for skilling the workforce.
Build a social security net to deal with inequality, unemployment, skill obsolescence, and an aging population.
Reforms for India’s engagement with the world at large.
Three critical military shifts needed: from land to sea, from the physical to the virtual (cyberwarfare); and from manpower to firepower.
Champion the cause of globalisation as movement of labour, goods, and services is critical for India’s growth.
Retain flexibility in terms of alignment: be open to larger partnerships and global projects, as well as unilateral action.
Partner with other middle powers, especially those concerned by G2 dominance.
China's military modernization is progressing but still lags behind other powers. It aims to build an informatized military capable of winning modern wars by mid-century. However, China faces immense domestic challenges like an aging society, income inequality, corruption, and environmental degradation that demand resources. Its lack of transparency about defense spending also creates uncertainties. Going forward, China will prioritize addressing internal issues while continuing military development, but still needs time to project large forces globally.
Determinants for International Relation
Instruments for foreign policy making
National interest
Non-Alignment Movement
Dimensions in International relations
Nuclear arms race between india and pakistan risesafaidiana
India and Pakistan have had a fraught relationship since gaining independence in 1947. Their rivalry has escalated due to the nuclear arms race between the two countries. The development of nuclear weapons by both India and Pakistan has been driven by ideology, history, and the modernization of weapons internationally. It also stems from the balance of power theory, as each country seeks to offset the other's military threat. During the Cold War, their tensions were exacerbated by domestic issues like the Kashmir dispute and religious divisions, as well as foreign interventions that altered the regional power dynamic. These factors have continued influencing their fraught relationship in the post-Cold War era.
U.S.A-China Relations, Is China A Friend Or An Enemy?, Policy And Politics International Perspective Paper, H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Spring 2006
Background: The relation between U.S.A and China has changed since 1980’s. Today the U.S is the world’s most developed country, while China is the world’s largest developing country. There is a cooperative partnership in many fields between USA and China which is beneficial for both sides. During the last two decades China has practiced remarkable changes. These changes compromise almost all aspects of Chinese society, as well as China’s relations with outside world. Since starting to open up and reform its economy in 1978, China has averaged 9.4 percent annual GDP growth, one of the highest growth rates in the world. China has also attracted hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign investment and more than a trillion dollars of domestic nonpublic investment. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has also increased dramatically, rotating China into the 2nd most important recipient of FDI, after the US.
Policy And Politics International Perspective Paper, H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Spring 2006:
The Soviet economy and society declined in the following decades until General Secretary Mikhail GORBACHEV (1985-91) introduced glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring) in an effort to renovate Communism, but his initiatives unintentionally released forces that by December 1991 splintered the USSR into Russia and 14 other independent republics. Since then, Russia has struggled in its efforts to construct a democratic political system and market economy to replace the strict social, political, and economic controls of the Communist period. While some progress has been made on the economic front, recent years have seen a recentralization of power under Vladimir PUTIN and the erosion of emerging democratic institutions.
China has rapidly emerged as an economic powerhouse over the past few decades through economic reforms and liberalization. Its annual GDP growth averaged 9.7% from 1979 to 2006, making it the world's second largest economy. China has also greatly expanded its trade relations, becoming the 3rd largest trade partner of both the US and ASEAN countries. While China still faces challenges in per capita income and financial development compared to Western nations, its huge population and investment in infrastructure, technology and education have propelled its economic rise. Some experts predict China may surpass the US as the world's largest economy within the next couple decades.
Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on the Indian EconomyShradha Diwan
The document discusses the global financial crisis that began in 2007 and its impact on the Indian economy. It provides background on the crisis, explaining that a loss of confidence in securitized mortgages in the US triggered a financial crisis that spread globally. It then examines four key ways India was affected: reduced global liquidity impacted foreign investment and lending; decreased consumer demand abroad hurt Indian exports; the IT industry saw clients like Lehman Brothers collapse; and foreign investment withdrawals led stock markets and the rupee to decline sharply. The response of Indian authorities and prospects for the economy are also assessed.
The document discusses the global financial crisis, its causes and impact on various economies including Pakistan. It outlines steps taken by governments and organizations like the US, World Bank, and Pakistan to address the crisis. Suggestions include developing countries becoming less dependent on trade, spending on development rather than military for the US, and global coordination to limit contagion effects. Recovery signs include stabilizing policies by Pakistan's government and projected growth rates for countries like India and China.
The document summarizes China's economic development and reforms under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping and subsequent leaders. It discusses how Deng prioritized rapid economic growth and political stability. His reforms decentralized control, introduced market mechanisms in agriculture and encouraged foreign trade and investment. This led to strong GDP growth but also new challenges around state-owned enterprises, unemployment, and regional disparities. By the late 1990s, China was integrating more into the global economy while still facing issues around further economic and political reforms.
arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision.
arifanees.com
Information-Inspiration-Transformation
The document discusses leadership changes in China and the US and the challenges in the relationship between the two countries. It summarizes Xi Jinping's diplomatic visit to the US in February as he prepared to take over leadership in China. While there are disagreements, both countries recognize their economic interdependence and the importance of cooperation. The leadership transitions in both countries will shape how China-US relations are redefined during a time of global challenges.
Financing for Development - Unlocking Investment Opportunities by Adnan Sabir...Adnan Mirza
The document discusses the problems facing Afghanistan and proposes solutions to establish peace and development. It notes that Afghanistan has faced war for decades, hindering development. It aims to propose a sustainable peace plan. Key obstacles include terrorism, an unstable political system, lack of education, and violence preventing economic growth. The solution calls for incentivizing education, technical training, industrial reforms to help businesses, achieving security and law and order, engaging youth, and developing Afghanistan's natural resources which could generate substantial revenues if explored safely.
This document provides outlines for 13 potential essay topics with key points for each. It discusses topics such as the international economic crisis, IMF and Pakistan, education in Pakistan, environmental pollution, the Pakistani economy, Indo-Pak relations, socio-economic problems in Pakistan, terrorism, globalization, the role of IT, security in Pakistan, the role of media, and Pakistan's vision for 2020. For each topic, it lists the main ideas and supporting points that could be discussed in an essay.
This document discusses U.S. foreign policy towards Russia from 2000-2012. It examines the significance of foreign policy and outlines the key areas of study as U.S.-Russia relations and efforts to promote democracy in Russia. The main argument is that while Russia has become more democratic since the fall of the Soviet Union, relations remain tense and U.S. policy has not significantly changed. The document then outlines Russia's principal foreign policy interests in global order, security, and economic growth as well as U.S. interests in international security, the world economy, and global order.
The Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on IndiaGomathi Siva
The document discusses the global financial crisis that began with the US subprime mortgage crisis and how it impacted India. It spread from a housing crisis in the US to a global banking crisis and recession as losses created a liquidity crisis. While India's banks did not directly expose to subprime mortgages, the global liquidity squeeze dried up overseas funds for Indian banks and companies. The crisis began visibly impacting India in September 2008 through slowed exports and job losses. The government implemented policies to increase liquidity and lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and recovery is expected by late 2009 or early 2010.
Presentation delivered by Chris Leung, Chief China Economist, Executive Director, DBS Bank at the marcus evans Private Wealth Management Summit APAC fall 2019 in Macao.
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
Fabrice Jacob who is the CEO at JK Capital Management Ltd. and shared his presentation titled "Demystifying the Dragon: Myths and Realities of Investing in China" at the marcus evans European Pensions and Investments Summit on 12, May 2012.
Join the 2015 Summit along with leading regional pension investors and global asset managers in an intimate environment for a focused discussion of key new drivers shaping institutional investment strategies today.
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
The document discusses Pakistan's national security challenges from external threats. It outlines several threats: from India due to territorial disputes over Kashmir; from Afghanistan due to instability; from Iran over border issues; and from Baloch insurgents fighting for independence. It also discusses threats from sectarian terrorism within Pakistan and how terrorism has impacted relations with the US. Pakistan faces a complex set of external security challenges from its neighbors and internal threats from non-state actors that complicate its national security environment.
India and China are two large, neighboring countries with long histories and predominantly rural populations. Both countries have seen significant economic growth in recent decades. India's GDP was $4 trillion in the last reported quarter while China's GDP was $10 trillion. Currently, China has the world's largest population at over 1.3 billion people, while India is second largest with over 1.15 billion people. In the past, India and China had periods of both positive and strained relations, but relations have improved in recent decades through increased high-level visits and agreements between the countries' leaders. Both countries now see each other as important economic and geopolitical counterparts.
1) The document discusses the growing influence and engagement of India and China in Africa, describing it as a "new great game" for influence on the continent.
2) It notes that both countries are pursuing stronger economic and political ties with African nations to further their national interests and become major players in Africa's development.
3) India and China are taking different strategic approaches in Africa, with India focusing on capacity building programs in areas like healthcare, education, and infrastructure, while China seeks to secure oil and other natural resources through major investments and loans.
NIC voorspelde gewijzigde machtsverhoudingen na pandemieThierry Debels
Het rapport 'Mapping the Global Future' van het NIC voorspelde in 2004 gewijzigde machtsverhoudingen na een pandemie. Dat scenario speelt zich vandaag af.
The document discusses the weakening global economy as the euro area crisis continues, with no end in sight. While major emerging economies like China and India have also slowed, sub-Saharan Africa has maintained strong growth above 5% and could emerge as the next retail frontier. The region has an estimated $2.2 trillion spending potential by 2020 and a rising youth population, making it an attractive market for retailers. International companies are increasingly investing in sub-Saharan Africa.
Tehran NAM Summit and Future Arab PoliticsZakir Hussain
This Issue Brief deals with how NAM Summit provided opportunity to Iran to place its vital national interest and the likely scenarios in the Arab politics, partiality Iran, Syria, Islamic Quartet.
Saudi succession preparing for a tougher future - october 28 2011jaime_nyc
Crown Prince Nayef of Saudi Arabia has been selected as the new Crown Prince, succeeding Crown Prince Sultan who recently passed away. Nayef is expected to take a more conservative and security-focused approach than the current King Abdullah, potentially slowing reforms. Saudi Arabia faces significant economic challenges in the coming years due to lower oil revenues, high government spending commitments, and need for private sector growth and employment. The succession of the Saudi royal family will be an important factor in the country's ability to navigate these challenges amid pressure for further political and economic reforms.
The Next IT: A Preview of Tomorrows Innovations and Challengesnbelarbi
This article discusses possible future Information Technology innovations based on current trends. We present three concepts that will likely shape future services and impact corporations, markets and societies: Hyper-Connectivity, Social/Semantic Web, Saas/Cloud computing and Micro-eEconomy.
Beyond The Final Frontier Ii The Rising Dragonnbelarbi
Three countries have launched humans into space: Russia, the US, and China. China has made major strides in its space program, becoming only the third nation to conduct manned space missions. It has also increased its annual launches, with 11 in 2008, surpassing the US. China aims to send humans around the moon by 2015 and to the moon by 2024. It sees its growing space capabilities as a way to boost national prestige and control communications, while also posing a challenge to the historic dominance of Russia and the US in space.
The document discusses the global financial crisis, its causes and impact on various economies including Pakistan. It outlines steps taken by governments and organizations like the US, World Bank, and Pakistan to address the crisis. Suggestions include developing countries becoming less dependent on trade, spending on development rather than military for the US, and global coordination to limit contagion effects. Recovery signs include stabilizing policies by Pakistan's government and projected growth rates for countries like India and China.
The document summarizes China's economic development and reforms under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping and subsequent leaders. It discusses how Deng prioritized rapid economic growth and political stability. His reforms decentralized control, introduced market mechanisms in agriculture and encouraged foreign trade and investment. This led to strong GDP growth but also new challenges around state-owned enterprises, unemployment, and regional disparities. By the late 1990s, China was integrating more into the global economy while still facing issues around further economic and political reforms.
arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision.
arifanees.com
Information-Inspiration-Transformation
The document discusses leadership changes in China and the US and the challenges in the relationship between the two countries. It summarizes Xi Jinping's diplomatic visit to the US in February as he prepared to take over leadership in China. While there are disagreements, both countries recognize their economic interdependence and the importance of cooperation. The leadership transitions in both countries will shape how China-US relations are redefined during a time of global challenges.
Financing for Development - Unlocking Investment Opportunities by Adnan Sabir...Adnan Mirza
The document discusses the problems facing Afghanistan and proposes solutions to establish peace and development. It notes that Afghanistan has faced war for decades, hindering development. It aims to propose a sustainable peace plan. Key obstacles include terrorism, an unstable political system, lack of education, and violence preventing economic growth. The solution calls for incentivizing education, technical training, industrial reforms to help businesses, achieving security and law and order, engaging youth, and developing Afghanistan's natural resources which could generate substantial revenues if explored safely.
This document provides outlines for 13 potential essay topics with key points for each. It discusses topics such as the international economic crisis, IMF and Pakistan, education in Pakistan, environmental pollution, the Pakistani economy, Indo-Pak relations, socio-economic problems in Pakistan, terrorism, globalization, the role of IT, security in Pakistan, the role of media, and Pakistan's vision for 2020. For each topic, it lists the main ideas and supporting points that could be discussed in an essay.
This document discusses U.S. foreign policy towards Russia from 2000-2012. It examines the significance of foreign policy and outlines the key areas of study as U.S.-Russia relations and efforts to promote democracy in Russia. The main argument is that while Russia has become more democratic since the fall of the Soviet Union, relations remain tense and U.S. policy has not significantly changed. The document then outlines Russia's principal foreign policy interests in global order, security, and economic growth as well as U.S. interests in international security, the world economy, and global order.
The Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on IndiaGomathi Siva
The document discusses the global financial crisis that began with the US subprime mortgage crisis and how it impacted India. It spread from a housing crisis in the US to a global banking crisis and recession as losses created a liquidity crisis. While India's banks did not directly expose to subprime mortgages, the global liquidity squeeze dried up overseas funds for Indian banks and companies. The crisis began visibly impacting India in September 2008 through slowed exports and job losses. The government implemented policies to increase liquidity and lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and recovery is expected by late 2009 or early 2010.
Presentation delivered by Chris Leung, Chief China Economist, Executive Director, DBS Bank at the marcus evans Private Wealth Management Summit APAC fall 2019 in Macao.
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
Fabrice Jacob who is the CEO at JK Capital Management Ltd. and shared his presentation titled "Demystifying the Dragon: Myths and Realities of Investing in China" at the marcus evans European Pensions and Investments Summit on 12, May 2012.
Join the 2015 Summit along with leading regional pension investors and global asset managers in an intimate environment for a focused discussion of key new drivers shaping institutional investment strategies today.
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
The document discusses Pakistan's national security challenges from external threats. It outlines several threats: from India due to territorial disputes over Kashmir; from Afghanistan due to instability; from Iran over border issues; and from Baloch insurgents fighting for independence. It also discusses threats from sectarian terrorism within Pakistan and how terrorism has impacted relations with the US. Pakistan faces a complex set of external security challenges from its neighbors and internal threats from non-state actors that complicate its national security environment.
India and China are two large, neighboring countries with long histories and predominantly rural populations. Both countries have seen significant economic growth in recent decades. India's GDP was $4 trillion in the last reported quarter while China's GDP was $10 trillion. Currently, China has the world's largest population at over 1.3 billion people, while India is second largest with over 1.15 billion people. In the past, India and China had periods of both positive and strained relations, but relations have improved in recent decades through increased high-level visits and agreements between the countries' leaders. Both countries now see each other as important economic and geopolitical counterparts.
1) The document discusses the growing influence and engagement of India and China in Africa, describing it as a "new great game" for influence on the continent.
2) It notes that both countries are pursuing stronger economic and political ties with African nations to further their national interests and become major players in Africa's development.
3) India and China are taking different strategic approaches in Africa, with India focusing on capacity building programs in areas like healthcare, education, and infrastructure, while China seeks to secure oil and other natural resources through major investments and loans.
NIC voorspelde gewijzigde machtsverhoudingen na pandemieThierry Debels
Het rapport 'Mapping the Global Future' van het NIC voorspelde in 2004 gewijzigde machtsverhoudingen na een pandemie. Dat scenario speelt zich vandaag af.
The document discusses the weakening global economy as the euro area crisis continues, with no end in sight. While major emerging economies like China and India have also slowed, sub-Saharan Africa has maintained strong growth above 5% and could emerge as the next retail frontier. The region has an estimated $2.2 trillion spending potential by 2020 and a rising youth population, making it an attractive market for retailers. International companies are increasingly investing in sub-Saharan Africa.
Tehran NAM Summit and Future Arab PoliticsZakir Hussain
This Issue Brief deals with how NAM Summit provided opportunity to Iran to place its vital national interest and the likely scenarios in the Arab politics, partiality Iran, Syria, Islamic Quartet.
Saudi succession preparing for a tougher future - october 28 2011jaime_nyc
Crown Prince Nayef of Saudi Arabia has been selected as the new Crown Prince, succeeding Crown Prince Sultan who recently passed away. Nayef is expected to take a more conservative and security-focused approach than the current King Abdullah, potentially slowing reforms. Saudi Arabia faces significant economic challenges in the coming years due to lower oil revenues, high government spending commitments, and need for private sector growth and employment. The succession of the Saudi royal family will be an important factor in the country's ability to navigate these challenges amid pressure for further political and economic reforms.
The Next IT: A Preview of Tomorrows Innovations and Challengesnbelarbi
This article discusses possible future Information Technology innovations based on current trends. We present three concepts that will likely shape future services and impact corporations, markets and societies: Hyper-Connectivity, Social/Semantic Web, Saas/Cloud computing and Micro-eEconomy.
Beyond The Final Frontier Ii The Rising Dragonnbelarbi
Three countries have launched humans into space: Russia, the US, and China. China has made major strides in its space program, becoming only the third nation to conduct manned space missions. It has also increased its annual launches, with 11 in 2008, surpassing the US. China aims to send humans around the moon by 2015 and to the moon by 2024. It sees its growing space capabilities as a way to boost national prestige and control communications, while also posing a challenge to the historic dominance of Russia and the US in space.
Beyond The Final Frontier Iii The Indian Dreamnbelarbi
The document summarizes developments in India's space program between 2008-2009. It notes that India successfully launched 10 satellites on a single rocket in April 2008, impressing the international community. In October 2008, India launched its first lunar probe, Chandrayaan-1, to map the moon's surface. The document outlines India's ambitions to launch its own GPS and satellite imaging systems, and send its first manned mission to space in 2015 and land astronauts on the moon by 2025. It compares India's low-cost space program favorably to other countries, noting Chandrayaan-1 was the cheapest lunar mission to date.
Tegrity allows instructors to record their computer screen along with audio narration to simulate an online lecture. The document provides instructions for installing and using basic Tegrity functions like recording, pausing, and uploading presentations. Key steps include accessing Tegrity through the course site, installing the program, setting up the microphone, giving the recording a title and previewing before uploading final versions for students. The goal is to practice recording presentations until instructors feel comfortable with their online instruction skills.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your NicheLeslie Samuel
Are bloggers thought leaders? Here are some tips on how you can become one. Provide great value, put awesome content out there on a regular basis, and help others.
WAS UNS CHINAS AUFSTIEG ZUR INNOVATIONSMACHT LEHRT [EN].pdfSnarky Security
Do you remember when the West laughed at the mere thought that China was a leader in innovation? Well, the DGAP article is here to remind you that China was busy not only producing everything, but also innovating, giving Silicon Valley the opportunity to earn its money. But there are rumors about barriers to market entry and slowing economic growth, which may hinder their parade of innovations. And let's not forget about the espionage law, because of which Western companies are shaking with fear, too scared to stick their noses into the Chinese market, or because they are not really needed in this market anymore? But the West argues that despite China's grandiose plans to become self-sufficient, they seem unable to get rid of their dependence on Western technology, especially these extremely important semiconductors.
Week 7 Discussion - Global Trends for the Future International Bus.docxcockekeshia
This document discusses two options - a stock split or stock dividend - for the Pear Corporation to consider to lower its stock price from over $50 per share to a more normal trading range. As the company's investment banker, the assistant would recommend a stock split because it would lower the stock price directly to allow for more trading volume and flexibility, while also enhancing current shareholder wealth and keeping long-term growth prospects intact. A stock split is generally the best strategy to accomplish all three goals.
1. The document discusses the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China), which were grouped based on their large, fast-growing economies.
2. It is projected that by 2050, the BRIC nations will account for over 40% of the world's population and 60% of global GDP, surpassing developed economies.
3. The BRIC nations face both opportunities and challenges in continuing their economic growth, improving living standards, and increasing their influence in global politics and international organizations.
This document discusses the potential for India to emerge as an economic superpower. It outlines factors that could support India's rise, including its growing economy, large workforce, infrastructure development, and influence through diplomacy. The document also examines how Asian economies are taking on greater leadership roles globally as China's influence grows through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative. While India faces challenges around security, building strong institutions, and ensuring internal peace, its continued economic growth could allow it to one day achieve superpower status to balance China's dominance in Asia.
This document discusses the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and their growing economic influence. It notes that by 2050, the BRIC countries are expected to account for over 40% of the world's population and 60% of global GDP. Together, the BRIC nations already account for 40% of the world's population, 25.9% of the world's land area, and 40% of global GDP. The document outlines key economic and demographic statistics for each BRIC country and discusses their future challenges and opportunities to continue growing as economic powers.
China is facing several challenges amid uncertainties surrounding the world economy and politics. Among them are the world post COVID 19 pandemics, the war in Europe and the increasing in intensity by the United State of its competition and technological war against China. But China also faces several challenges from within. How will these affect the Chinese economy and how will impact Latin America and Peru?
The document summarizes key trends and uncertainties in global affairs expected between now and 2020, including:
- The rise of China and India as major global economic powers, with their GDPs projected to surpass many Western countries. How their growing influence is exercised internationally is uncertain.
- Other developing countries like Brazil and Indonesia may also become important economic players.
- Europe will remain influential if it addresses issues like aging populations and immigration, but its role is uncertain.
- Russia has potential due to energy exports but faces demographic and instability challenges limiting its global role.
- Traditional geopolitical categories may become obsolete as new global actors emerge and the world becomes less state-bound.
The APCO Geopolitical Risk Radar (AGRR) offers a timely snapshot of the global operating environment for businesses. It predicts how regional risks come together at a global level and offers a baseline from which to develop strategies to navigate, mitigate and grow through these risks.
The document discusses India's economic growth and development since independence. It notes that India has made progress reducing poverty and inequality, but still faces challenges in areas like employment and education. Several states have recently relaxed some labor laws to revive industry amid the pandemic, which could both help and hurt the economy and workers. As a manager, factors to consider regarding relaxed laws include prioritizing employee safety, supporting remote work, and engaging with customers and officials during the crisis.
This document provides an analysis of whether the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are still the key drivers of global economic growth. It notes that while the BRICS saw unprecedented growth in the 2000s, capturing a growing share of global GDP, their growth rates have significantly slowed in recent years. It suggests several factors that indicate the BRICS may continue growing but cannot recreate the same remarkable growth of the past. These include less potential for catch-up growth as incomes rise, aging populations, and challenges facing each BRICS economy. Alternative emerging markets like the "N11" could see strong growth but are unlikely to replace the BRICS as the main growth engine of the world.
This document provides an executive summary of three scenarios for China's development and relationship with the world from 2006 to 2025: Regional Ties, Unfulfilled Promise, and New Silk Road.
Regional Ties describes China focusing on developing regional ties in Asia as global trade is hindered by protectionism. Unfulfilled Promise sees China struggle with internal reforms, having negative economic and social consequences. New Silk Road depicts a flourishing China that achieves success through reforms and peaceful geopolitical integration. Key factors that will influence China's path are analyzed. The scenarios are then compared based on factors like leadership, economic performance, and social development.
Global Trends for the FutureAfter reading Global Trends 2025 A.docxlianaalbee2qly
Global Trends for the Future
After reading "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World" choose one "Relative Certainty" and one "Key Uncertainty" and express your opinion on the topic and whether or not you agree.
Microsoft word, 1-2 pages, scholarly reviewed citations,APA Format
The 2025 Global Landscape
Relative Certainties
Likely Impact
A global multipolar system is emerging with the rise of China, India, and others. The relative power of nonstate actors - businesses, tribes, religious organizations, and even criminal networks-also will increase.
By 2025 a single "international community" composed of nation-states will no longer exist. Power will be more dispersed with the newer players bringing new rules of the game while risks will increase that the traditional Western alliances will weaken. Rather than emulating Western models of political and economic development, more countries may be attracted to China's alternative development model.
The unprecedented shift in relative wealth and economic power roughly from West to East now under way will continue.
As some countries become more invested in their economic well-being, incentives toward geopolitical stability could increase. However, the transfer is strengthening states like Russia that want to challenge the Western order.
The United States will remain the single most powerful country but will be less dominant.
Shrinking economic and military capabilities may force the US into a difficult set of tradeoffs between domestic versus foreign policy priorities.
Continued economic growth-coupled with 1.2 billion more people by 2025 - will put pressure on energy, food, and water resources.
The pace of technological innovation will be key to outcomes during this period. All current technologies are inadequate for replacing traditional energy architecture on the scale needed.
The number of countries with youthful populations in the "arc of instability"1 will decrease, but the populations of several youth-bulge states are projected to remain on rapid growth trajectories.
Unless employment conditions change dramatically in parlous youth-bulge states such as Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen, these countries will remain ripe for continued instability and state failure.
The potential for conflict will increase owing to rapid changes in parts of the
greater Middle East and the spread of lethal capabilities.
The need for the US to act as regional balancer in the Middle East will increase, although other outside powers-Russia, China and India-will play greater roles than today.
Terrorism is unlikely to disappear by 2025, but its appeal could lessen if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorists that are active the diffusion of technologies will put dangerous capabilities within their reach.
Opportunities for mass-casualty terrorist attacks using chemical, biological, or less likely, nuclear
weapons will increase as technology diffuses .
This document discusses China's economic challenges and options for addressing them over the next year. China's GDP growth is expected to slow to around 6.8% in 2015 and 6.4% in 2016. China's largest economic issues are its rapidly growing debt and potential problems in the real estate sector. While China has significant resources to manage its debt, which has quadrupled since 2008, continued high growth in debt poses medium-term risks. Local government finances are also heavily tied to real estate sales and development. Over the next year, China will likely take actions like fiscal stimulus, monetary policy adjustments, and reforms, but progress on major challenges like SOEs and corruption may be limited.
Bertrand Russell and the Challenges of Contemporary Chinapkconference
This document discusses Bertrand Russell's analysis of China from 1922 and how it relates to challenges facing China today. It summarizes Russell's view that China needed a stable government, industrialization under Chinese control, and education spread. Today, China is the world's second largest economy but faces issues of rebalancing demand, environmental problems, and inequality. New challenges include an aging population, pollution, financial regulation, and ensuring its rise avoids conflict with other nations. Russell recognized China's importance and many current issues facing China remain relevant today.
This is a presentation on Worldwide Financial Crisis made by Vinod Thomas, Director-General & Senior Vice President at the Independent Evaluation Group, World Bank. In the presentation, Mr. Thomas describes the reasons for the recent financial crisis, highlights the extent of damages, and discusses policy responses to the crisis.
The document provides an overview of the global financial crisis of 2008. It discusses several key points:
- The US housing market boom from 2002-2006 led to a housing price bubble that eventually burst, contributing to the crisis. As housing prices declined sharply from their 2006 peak, foreclosures and defaults increased substantially.
- Loose monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve from 2002-2004, keeping interest rates low, fueled risky lending and the housing bubble. When rates rose in 2005-2006, the default rate on adjustable mortgages skyrocketed.
- Highly leveraged investment banks collapsed in 2008 as default rates rose due to declining lending standards. Stock prices around the world plummeted nearly 40
The document outlines eight trillion-dollar macroeconomic trends expected to drive global economic growth between now and 2020:
1. The next billion consumers - Rising incomes in emerging markets will bring over a billion new consumers into the global middle class, expanding markets.
2. Old infrastructure, new investments - Advanced economies will invest in aging infrastructure through public-private partnerships while emerging economies continue building infrastructure.
3. Militarization following industrialization - As economic power shifts to Asia, military spending and capabilities will also shift, increasing risks of conflict and opportunities for arms producers.
The document outlines eight trillion-dollar macroeconomic trends that are expected to drive global economic growth between 2010 and 2020: 1) The next billion consumers, 2) Old infrastructure, new investments, 3) Militarization following industrialization, 4) Growing output of primary inputs, 5) Developing human capital, 6) Keeping the wealthy healthy, 7) Everything the same, but nicer, 8) Prepping for the next big thing. These eight trends are estimated to increase global GDP by $27 trillion total by 2020, with the trends of developing human capital and keeping the wealthy healthy accounting for about half of the expected growth. The document also discusses some implications that businesses should consider in positioning themselves to profit from these macro
This document provides a summary of the key findings from the 2015 Global Built Asset Wealth Index report by Arcadis. Some of the main points from the summary include:
- China has overtaken the US as the country with the largest built asset wealth in the world, valued at $47.6 trillion compared to $36.8 trillion for the US. Much of China's growth can be attributed to $33 trillion in investment in built assets since 2000.
- Qatar has the highest built asset wealth per capita at $198,000, replacing Singapore which was previously highest at $192,000.
- Many developed/G7 economies like Japan, Germany, France and Russia have seen declines in their
The document discusses megatrends that will impact global health in the 21st century through the lens of COVID-19. It identifies six megatrends: 1) change in population, 2) change in geopolitics, 3) climate change and environment, 4) improvements in technology, 5) urbanization, and 6) inequalities. It examines how each megatrend has evolved and been impacted by COVID-19, and outlines challenges and opportunities going forward in shaping global health, such as promoting more equitable societies and governance partnerships through sustainable development and innovation. The 2022 PMAC conference aims to convene experts to examine these megatrends and COVID-19's influence to inform alternatives for global health.
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1. The World in 2025 according to the NIC:
Addressing US challenges
Nadir Belarbi,
Sr Business & Innovation Manager
http://www.linkedin.com/in/nadirbelarbi
nbelarbi@chicagogsb.edu
New York, USA
Abstract-This article provides a general analysis of some topics But predicting the future remains a perilous exercise as
mentioned in the last National Intelligence Council report on unexpected events may modify a defined context generating
the World in 2025. A focus is made on China’s potential, US repercussions that may exceed predictions. For instance, few
challenges and the way to maintain the US leadership. imagined the extent of the last financial crisis and its
international ramifications to Iceland and Greece. The use of
I. Predictions & Accidents complex financial instruments, didn’t allow a clear
understanding of the risks associated with these products
The National Intelligence Council (NIC) released its new and the domino reaction that followed.
Global trends report for the world at the 2025 horizon [1].
The 120 pages try to predict the state of the world in 2025 Overall, any unexpected political, social, technological or
based of current trends. The geopolitical balances are environmental event may affect the course of history and
probably easier to predict than weather changes but still, lead to new balances. Another major Earthquake, an Iranian
how can we accurately predict the state of the world fifteen nuclear test, a conflict between India and Pakistan or a large
years from now? cyber-attack against vital on-line services, are examples of
unexpected events that may have important consequences
Some predictions seem obvious because of the current on the world economy. The world future is a non-linear
trends: system where any small event may have important
repercussions. Furthermore, as trade became global, so did
• The emergence of a multipolar world with regional the risk.
powers like China, India and Russia where China
will be the main US rival and a logical shift of The intent of this article is not to analyze all the details of
Wealth from West to East. the NIC report but rather discuss some key topics related to
• The decrease of the US dominance and its influence the US leadership in the next decades.
on the world.
• The raise of unprecedented conflicts related to II. The emergence of a multipolar world
climate change and resource scarcity.
The emergence of a multipolar world is probably the most
The remaining predictions encompass changes that may significant geopolitical change since the fall the Soviet
strongly reshape the world depending on their magnitude: Union in 1991. After nearly 20 years of unchallenged
power, the US is now confronted with new Eastern regional,
• Energy transition from Oil and Gas to alternative seeking a new world status and a greater control of their
energies by 2025. economies. These new contenders are growing
• Extent and intensity of the climate changes. economically and feel the need to strengthen their positions
• The continuation of the economic globalization to impose their conditions and maintain a social and
while shifting to more protectionism in certain cases. political stability. The list of these contenders is a subset of
• Domestic Political changes in Chine and Russia. the BRIC group and mainly concentrated in the Far East:
• Nuclear proliferation in the Middle East essentially China, India and Russia, where China is without a doubt the
because of the Iranian nuclear program. new US rival.
• The possible resolution of Israel - Palestinian
conflict and the stabilization of Iraq. Unquestionably, the underdevelopment of China and India,
• The impact of demographic changes on Europe and has turned these countries into fertile lands for low cost
Japan. manufacturing and business investments. Today’s world
economy growth largely relies on the Indian and Chinese
Nadir Belarbi - 1/5
2. markets; the western ones being saturated and exhibiting China remains nevertheless the most interesting protagonist.
bleak annual growths. While India’s economy is heavily relying on agriculture and
the service industry, China is massively investing in
With currently 36% of the world population, China and advanced manufacturing, high tech and education to sustain
India are catching up with the western world at a fast pace. its fundamental research. The recent Indian achievements in
Some forecasts predict that they will reach the US GDP space launch technologies is more of a psychological step to
respectively in 2036 and 2050 [2] [3]. The size of the Chinese confirm its new international status and send a signal to its
and Indian population, the low costs of their workforce, will neighbors in regards to ballistic missiles than a element of a
continue to attract foreign investments, sustain outsourcing broader development strategy.
and fuel their organic growth.
"If you don't plan for the future, you will be distracted by
The state capitalism followed by these players will continue what happens in the short term," said Lu Yongxiang,
to control their resources and insure a domestic stability. president of CAS, the Chinese Academy of Sciences during
Beside Russia, the social structures of China and India in a news briefing in 2008 where China announced its next
particular are very complex. The fast economic growth scientific strategy for the next 50 years. The roadmap covers
mainly concentrated in large cities will have a lower impact 18 domains including agriculture, ecology and environment,
on rural areas leading to increased social tensions because of human health and ocean science [6]. Energy is probably the
income disparities among the population [4]. China and most important sector that China wants to secure in order to
India will live their post industrial revolutions eras, in a sustain its fast growth. The oil consumption grew by an
compressed time frame. Half of a century is a very short impressive 11.9% in 2008 where the country produced an
period of time to absorb these changes compared to the two average of 3,795,000 bbl/day while its consumption was
centuries that Europe had. China, India and at certain extent nearly the double at 7.999 million bbl/day [7]. Theoretically,
Russia, are raw economic and military powers that enjoy a China has a week of reserves in case of an interruption of oil
steady growth thanks to their relative political stability and imports. This discrepancy is the Red Dragon Achilles’ heel
their low cost labor force. With its large oil and gas shaping most of its foreign policy and explains the different
resources, Russia has a relatively important advantage trade agreements and diplomatic initiatives conducted in
compared to India and China, which need to fuel their Africa. In parallel, China is also massively working on a
growing economies with large energy supplies imported new generation of nuclear plants using an advanced
from abroad. These imports are already shaping the Asian pressurized water reactor (PWR) with a 55% localized part
geopolitical balances, China and India fostering their production, planned to start in 2013.
economic exchanges with their neighbors.
In 2001, the strong willingness of global western
While Russia has to face an aging population, the steady corporations to access large foreign markets, lead the World
growth of the Indian and Chinese economies will face a Trade Organization to negotiate new agreements that
structural problem. At the long term, outsourcing to China allowed China to become its 143rd member. As a result, the
and India will reach its limits. The Revaluation of the world economy has totally changed with a brutal rebalance
Chinese Yuan, increases in the labor force salaries as in of economic powers from West to East. With $2,399.2B in
Bangalore and the probable increase of oil prices will reduce foreign currency reserves and $894.8B of US Treasury
arbitrage benefits brought by Western off-shore strategies. Securities, China is unequivocally the biggest winner of the
As a consequence, other underdeveloped countries as last decade.
Indonesia, Philippines or Vietnam will become more
attractive destinations for off-shore activities but they will By contrast with the post second world war period, it's the
nevertheless not offer the same structured and stable free trade not the military balances that shaped this new
environments as in China and India. world. But as the economic crisis lingers and the
unemployment rates are expected to remain high in the next
Conversely, the Chinese and Indian large internal markets 3 to 4 years for most of the western economies, free trade
will continue to offer enough room for organic growths requirements will become unbearable. Social pressures will
through their internal consumption. While most of the world weigh on political campaigns requesting more protectionism
economies, including Russia, strongly contracted in 2009, and isolation from the world affairs but at the same time,
India and China achieved respectively an impressive 7% leading the populations to support military actions to regain
and 8.7% growth. This accelerated growth is already an economic sovereignty.
creating significant social tensions in China that will
challenge the central political authority of Beijing and set Interestingly, at the long term, the next world on the rise is
the base for more opposition groups. In India, the social likely to be shaped again by military conflicts. Force will
tensions have already morphed into political grievances likely be the only way to void unacceptable economic
where states like Telangana seek more independence [5]. agreements and important financial debts. Military power
Nadir Belarbi - 2/5
3. will thus remain an important deterrence factor even for need to be simultaneously engaged and US forces need to be
economic and financial negotiations. present in several hot spots around the world. Human and
technical intelligence techniques associated to an increased
use of unmanned aerial vehicles will allow targeted strikes
III. The decrease of the US dominance and influence on supporting tactical operations. The ability of the US military
the world forces to exhibit both traditional large-scale deployments
and small mobile tactical interventions in a very short lapse
The US has certainly the strongest brand image in the world, of time is essential to maintain the US superiority and
associating power and success. The influence of the US influence.
culture and its way of life on the world will continue in the
next decades, largely thanks to a powerful entertainment Conversely, sustaining a worldwide influence exclusively
industry, the country’s ambassador all over the world. This with military capabilities is unrealistic in this globalized
intangible value, represents a goodwill that will continue to economy. Developed countries represent economic nodes
attract talents to the US, foster startups and innovation and that attract talent, capital and innovation. They are able to
help to position the country as technological leader among finance technologic breakthroughs and stay ahead of the
the developing countries. curve. In terms of deterrence, technology plays a major role
in designing the next weapons and systems that can provide
The economic crisis and the slow recovery will nevertheless a superiority advantage to any nation. The Chinese and
slow investments, keep employment rates high and hinder Indian economies are benefiting from temporary economic
consumption which represented in 2009 nearly 71% of the arbitrage situations. Massive outsourcing programs to these
of the Gross Domestic Product. As discussed in the previous countries by western companies has fueled their economies
section, the distribution of powers in the current world is with a capital that enabled them to invest in different
largely due to new economic balances created by the free research programs to acquire and produce new technologies.
trade policies. If not tackled efficiently, the public debt and The aggressive knowledge collection by the Chinese
the federal burdens carried by the country will definitely organizations through economic or cyber espionage has
limit the renaissance of the economy and reduce the US accelerated this transmutation allowing Beijing to quickly
influence in the world. A scenario where the triple A credit catch up with the western standards [9]. The large Chinese
of the US would be demoted by Moody’s Investors Service Diaspora present worldwide and the different University
is unlikely but it is sending the wrong signal to the world [8]. exchange and common scientific programs have also
Since the last financial crisis, the US image abroad took a “legally” sustained this trend. In this perspective, a large and
hit, showing for the first time that the colossus is vulnerable. thorough cyber policy is critical to protect US assets and
The soft diplomacy policy of the current US administration intellectual capital. But besides only protecting the countries
in regards to Iran and China, is unfortunately accentuating assets, it is essential for the US to continue to lead
this perception. Diplomacy is perceived as a weakness and technological innovation.
countries like Brazil do not hesitate now to publicly oppose
US policies and recommendations like recently on Iran. During the last decade, the migration of mass production to
the East and the transformation of China into the world
The US will certainly remain the major military force for workshop, lead western economies to focus more on
the next decades but its reach will be limited by the financial services. But the recent financial crisis showed the
economic situation of the country. Large military operations limits of such specialization and the risks of heavily
and deployments will face more public resistance and may relaying on non-tangible economic assets. If manufacturing
experience budget limitations. The choice to withdraw goods with the current means of production costs less in
90,000 US troupes from Iraq by December 2011 and to China and India, only two options are available to maintain
focus more on the war against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan is a the US superiority over these emerging powers; either
sign that supporting two fronts is too complex. design enhanced manufacturing techniques to allow lower
production costs and/or manufacture new products that Asia
Moreover, nuclear weapons have changed the nature of can’t manufacture because of technical limitations. In both
military balances. Today it's probably more important for cases, innovation is the key approach to maintain a
most emerging powers to have nuclear deterrence competitive advantage. To enable that, national innovation
capabilities than an organized and structured military force. programs combining government and private interests need
Iran’s race to build a first nuclear weapon is probably a race to initiate profound changes in the way the country produces
to secure its regime rather than develop a thorough nuclear cars, planes, electronic devices, etc.
program. Large conflicts between nuclear powers have
almost disappeared and conflicts have become short and The landscape of the workforce will need to be gradually
localized involving state military forces and/or small and changed with more workers specialized in advanced
disseminated guerrilla groups. In this aspect, the US old two technologies as IT, Nanotechnologies and Biotechnologies
wars doctrine is not applicable anymore. Many enemies for example. If the country is able to produce better goods at
Nadir Belarbi - 3/5
4. lower prices, the attraction for outsourcing will decrease and According the NIC report, only six countries: Saudi Arabia,
the flow of capital to China and India will follow. The Iran, Kuwait, the UAE, Iraq (potentially), and Russia are
regeneration of the US industry as a high tech focused projected to account for 39 percent of total world oil
industry will stimulate the financial systems and boost stock production in 2025. Five of these countries are located in the
markets as these new technologies will offer tangible Middle East, reinforcing the feeling that oil supplies will
present values with understandable risks compared to increasingly originate from a region with high degree of
complex finance products. political instability. A nuclear Iran neighboring an instable
Iraq with continuous guerilla operations orchestrated by ex-
The key factor to enable this transformation of the US into a members of the Baath party, Shia factions, Al Qaeda and
knowledge society is education. U.S. data indicate that other players in the region may be a potential source of
college-educated workers are three times as productive, and disruption for the oil world supply. Moreover, the
a high school graduate is 1.8 times as productive, as a nationalization trend observed of oil and gas production
worker with less than a ninth-grade education [13]. Since companies will spread, increasing the possibility of having
1998, China is following an aggressive education state these countries using these resources as an economic and
sponsored program that lead in the four years to 165% political weapon. In this perspective, seeking new oil and
increase in high education enrolments and 152% increase in gas reserves as well as alternative energies will be critical
students studying abroad. This continuous trend may add up for the US to maintain an economic independence and an
6 percentage points to the country's annual economic growth internal stability.
rate.
On the climate changes impacts, interestingly the NIC report
The last years, several report confirmed the decline of the only analysis long-term effects of the global warming with
US in several international education rankings done by the potential water supply shortages and new lands and
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development waterways resulting from an increase of temperatures.
(OECD). In a survey done in 2006, the US ranked 21th, Nevertheless at the short term, regular abrupt climate
behind countries like Croatia, the Czech Republic, and changes are already disturbing the world economy with
Liechtenstein, and ahead of just five other OECD countries different extent. As an example, the bad weather in Europe
[10]. A tremendous effort has to be made to enhance the during the 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 summers had
public educational system, make private universities more important impacts on the price of the wheat with
accessible and continue attracting foreign talents. consequences on the price of the milk and of dairy products.
A report prepared by the FAO in 2008, showed that that the
IV. The raise of unprecedented conflicts related to world cereal production fell by 3.6 percent in 2005 and 6.9
climate change and resource scarcity. percent in 2006 due to bad weather in major producing
countries [13]. As consequence, stock levels in 2007/08
For the next decades, oil will remain the main source of reached their lowest level in three decades. More recently,
energy on earth. The steady increase in worldwide record-breaking snows which fell across the U.S. East Coast
consumption is likely to be offset by new oil fields in January and February 2010, may have shaved as much as
discoveries as in the Gulf of Mexico or Uganda and the 2 percent off all sales which nevertheless grew by 4.1% in
exploitation of untapped reserves in Iraq, Iran, Russia and at February.
a lesser extent, Alaska and the Arctic Circle. Moreover, as
the oil prices will continue to increase with economic In the next decades, unexpected and short-term climate
recovery, the use of oil shale reserves will become a viable changes will definitely have an impact on local economies
financial alternative. through decreases in production, consumption and increases
in the amount of damages caused by floods and hurricanes.
About two thirds of the oil consumed in the US is used by By 2030, the world food demand is predicted to increase by
the transportation sector. This trend will be gradually and 50% challenging low agricultural prices policies and
partially offset by the introduction of new hybrid electric pushing for an increased use of genetically modified crops.
and hydrogen engines. Pre 2008 summer scenarios on the At this scale, any climate effect on a local food production
impact of hybrid sales on the US oil consumption were at may have global consequences on the world supplies.
best showing 2.5% decrease for 1 million hybrid cars
predicted to be sold by 2025. In fact, this number was
reached in February 2009 for the combined Toyota Prius V. Demography and pandemics.
and Lexus hybrid cars sales in the US [11]. The inevitable
increase of the world oil demand mainly driven by China, Some regions of the world are aging faster than others.
fostered by financial markets speculations, will certainly Europe, Japan, Russia will face a major challenge in
lead oil prices to cross again the $100 threshold and financing their pensions and avoiding immigrants to feed
maintain this trend. their labor force. As a consequence, the European
percentage contribution to global GDP is predicted to
Nadir Belarbi - 4/5
5. plummet from 21% to 5%, in a generation [12]. Yet Europe [9] Capability of the People’s Republic of China to Conduct Cyber Warfare
and Computer Network Exploitation, Prepared for The US-China
prospects of a better life will remain a strong attraction for
Economic and Security Review Commission, Bryan Krekel ,October 9,
the large and young African unemployed population. In 2009.
such less favorable economic context, the European
countries like France, Spain and Italy will face serious [10] PISA 2006: Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, OECD
briefing note for the United States, December 4th 2007.
challenges in assimilating African populations and avoiding
social troubles. Interestingly, Japan will face a serious [11] "Toyota and Lexus Hybrids Top One Million Sales in the U.S.". The
dilemma between accepting more immigrants and Auto Channel. 2009-03-11.
preserving its national identity. Tough economic and http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2009/03/11/453029.html. Retrieved
cultural choice will have to be made to encourage parents to 2010-03-07.
have more children. [12] $123,000,000,000,000: China’s estimated economy by the year 2040.
Be warned, Robert Fogel, Foreign Policy, Jan/Feb 2010.
Finally, the last bird flu and H1N1 pandemics had
[13] High food prices: Impact and recommendations, Paper prepared by
fortunately limited consequences on the world economy and
FAO, IFAD and WFP for the meeting of the Chief Executives Board for
the number of victims. But the possibility of a global and Coordination on 28-29 April 2008, Berne, Switzerland.
virulent pandemic remains present. The absence of an
adequate vaccine and the general lack of immunity may
trigger a hundred of millions of contamination that may
result in tens of millions of deaths [1]. More than ever, Nadir Belarbi received an Engineering degree from the University of
science and medicine performance will be critical to find a Science and Technology of Oran, Algeria (1993), a Master Degree in
cure in a short time frame while keeping populations alert. Networks and Telecommunications from Paris V University & Sup
Telecom Paris, France (1994), studied 3 years of studies and research on
Intelligent Networks during a PhD program (1997) and received an
VI. Conclusion Executive MBA from the Chicago University, Booth Graduate School of
Business, USA (2008). He has worked for IBM, Air France, Groupe
As China increasingly appears as the main US contender, Danone. He currently leads Business & Innovation projects at Dannon.
the different challenges raised by the latest NIC 2025 Global
Nadir Belarbi’s research has spanned a large number of disciplines,
Trends report, underline more then ever the need for the US emphasizing information technology and telecommunications with a focus
to address some fundamental issues. First, fostering on emerging technologies. As a manager with multi-cultural skills
education is an important requirement to take the US society speaking five languages, he worked in an international environment where
to the knowledge era and foster Innovation. Second, he specialized in the coordination and lobbying of global organizations.
massive investments in new technologies are mandatory to His political and social experience ranges from heading the corporate work
maintain the US leadership, attract capital, accelerate council to participating in political and geopolitical organizations and think
economic recovery and reduce the national deficit. Third, tanks. With a major interest in Intelligence, Technology & Energy roles in
these factors will maintain the crucial US military Geopolitical, Military & Security issues, he is now managing a LinkedIn
group on Business, Innovation & Geopolitics.
superiority which strategy will have nevertheless to be
adapted to the new type of guerilla and terrorist threads that
will continue to dominate strategic regions.
References
[1] Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, National Intelligence
Council, 2008.
[2] Goldman Sachs, Economics paper No 99, Dreaming With BRICs: The
Path to 2050, 2003.
[3] Goldman Sachs, Economics paper No 152, India’s Rising Growth
Potential, 2007
[4] Social Unrest in China, CRS Report for Congress, Thomas Lum, May 8
2006.
[5] India Telangana separate state protests turn violent, BBC News, 20
January 2010.
[6] China issues 50-year science strategy, SciDevNet, July 6, 2009.
[7] CIA Online Factbook: China, cia.gov, march 7, 2010.
[8] Analysis: Greek financial crisis coming to America? By Niall Ferguson,
FT.com, February 12, 2010.
Nadir Belarbi - 5/5