The document discusses various global events and trends that may occur over the next 10 years across geopolitics, economics, and technology. Some of the key points mentioned include:
- Growth falls below expectations globally and sources of power become diffuse, leading to increased economic nationalism and protectionism. Populism rises as democratic governments face strains.
- Technological innovations and sustainability efforts promote uneven but ongoing growth, with prosperity defined by access to digital resources. Regional trade blocs form amid a web of agreements. The US reduces its military footprint.
- Stagnation plagues Europe and Japan as China experiences a banking crisis. Nearly all large emerging markets fail to meet growth targets. The US emerges as the preem
Post Globalization Issues and Power shift of the CenturyZeeshanMajeed15
GlobalizationWe can define globalization as the increasing interdependence and integration of economies, markets, nations, and cultures.
OR
Globalization envisages a borderless world or seeks the world as a global village.
OR
Globalization is the flow across national borders of trade, finance, people, and of course ideas.
Power shift of the CenturyEra of globalization is ending and giving way to new power centers.
Globalization world was where interconnectedness and the people used to do the same in terms of law and approaches but now we are witnessing the clash of civilizations.
We are now going to a multipolar world where at least three big regions do things increasingly differently.
The document discusses international trade trends for Bangladesh and compares it to global and regional trade patterns. It finds that while Bangladesh's trade has grown, it is becoming more dependent on exports to large developed economies like the EU and US, making it vulnerable to economic downturns in those markets. Recent forecasts project Bangladesh's economic growth will slow to around 6% in the next two years due to declining demand from its major export partners in Europe and North America as they continue to struggle with economic crises.
This newsletter introduces a new publication called "EYE ON THE MARKETS" that will analyze macroeconomic trends, investment management, and equity market movements. The author argues that macro events have an overwhelming influence on stock markets, and periods of calm have been interrupted by market sell-offs due to crises in Europe, the US, and Asia. Investors need to carefully manage their portfolios and prepare contingency plans for different scenarios. Some positive factors are signs of recovery in corporate earnings, manufacturing, and technology, though continued global uncertainties remain.
The document discusses applying concepts of situational awareness (SA) to investing in alternative investments such as hedge funds. SA involves perceiving elements in one's environment, comprehending their meaning, and projecting their future status. The document outlines applying SA's three levels - acquiring data, evaluating the data to create an understanding, and projecting future states - to gain knowledge about macroeconomic conditions, the alternative investment industry, and individual managers. This framework can help differentiate investment choices and ensure accurate mental models are used for decision making.
one hedge fund manager can pocketed $ 1,3 bio (2014)!
This reminded me of a famous Wall Street joke – about a visitor to New York who admired the gorgeous yachts of the richest bankers and brokers. After gazing long and thoughtfully at these beautiful boats, the visitor asked wryly: “Where are the customers’ yachts?” Of course, the customers could not afford yachts, even though they dutifully followed the advice of their bankers and brokers.
The document summarizes the key findings of the Global Financial Centres Index 15 (GFCI 15). Some of the main points include:
- New York surpassed London as the top-ranked global financial center, though the difference between the two is small. Hong Kong and Singapore remained third and fourth.
- London experienced the largest drop among the top 50 centers due to issues like regulatory failures, uncertainty over EU membership, and an unwelcoming environment for foreign workers.
- Middle Eastern centers like Qatar, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi continued rising in the ranks.
- Most European centers declined as the region remains in turmoil. Offshore centers also struggled with reputation and regulation issues.
If The China Bubble Bursts: A Symposium of ViewsEcon Matters
If China's asset bubble were to burst:
1) The surrounding export hubs would be most directly affected initially, with a significant hit to global growth.
2) Foreign companies invested in China would be among the biggest victims as Chinese authorities may force wage hikes or transfers of production capacity to other countries.
3) A bursting bubble could severely damage China's banking sector through non-performing loans if regional governments and real estate investors default on debt, potentially leading to a credit crunch.
Cushman & Wakefield 2016 Capital Markets OutlookMatthew Marshall
The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016. Some key points:
- Global property investment volumes fell 2.4% in 2015, the first decline in 6 years, driven by lower volumes in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- The US saw the strongest growth at 25% and accounted for 39% of global volumes. Yields fell globally but recovery has been uneven by region.
- In 2016, core assets in major cities will remain popular. Demand will need to spread to new sectors and markets to find opportunities. Emerging markets may stabilize later in the year.
- Structural changes like
Post Globalization Issues and Power shift of the CenturyZeeshanMajeed15
GlobalizationWe can define globalization as the increasing interdependence and integration of economies, markets, nations, and cultures.
OR
Globalization envisages a borderless world or seeks the world as a global village.
OR
Globalization is the flow across national borders of trade, finance, people, and of course ideas.
Power shift of the CenturyEra of globalization is ending and giving way to new power centers.
Globalization world was where interconnectedness and the people used to do the same in terms of law and approaches but now we are witnessing the clash of civilizations.
We are now going to a multipolar world where at least three big regions do things increasingly differently.
The document discusses international trade trends for Bangladesh and compares it to global and regional trade patterns. It finds that while Bangladesh's trade has grown, it is becoming more dependent on exports to large developed economies like the EU and US, making it vulnerable to economic downturns in those markets. Recent forecasts project Bangladesh's economic growth will slow to around 6% in the next two years due to declining demand from its major export partners in Europe and North America as they continue to struggle with economic crises.
This newsletter introduces a new publication called "EYE ON THE MARKETS" that will analyze macroeconomic trends, investment management, and equity market movements. The author argues that macro events have an overwhelming influence on stock markets, and periods of calm have been interrupted by market sell-offs due to crises in Europe, the US, and Asia. Investors need to carefully manage their portfolios and prepare contingency plans for different scenarios. Some positive factors are signs of recovery in corporate earnings, manufacturing, and technology, though continued global uncertainties remain.
The document discusses applying concepts of situational awareness (SA) to investing in alternative investments such as hedge funds. SA involves perceiving elements in one's environment, comprehending their meaning, and projecting their future status. The document outlines applying SA's three levels - acquiring data, evaluating the data to create an understanding, and projecting future states - to gain knowledge about macroeconomic conditions, the alternative investment industry, and individual managers. This framework can help differentiate investment choices and ensure accurate mental models are used for decision making.
one hedge fund manager can pocketed $ 1,3 bio (2014)!
This reminded me of a famous Wall Street joke – about a visitor to New York who admired the gorgeous yachts of the richest bankers and brokers. After gazing long and thoughtfully at these beautiful boats, the visitor asked wryly: “Where are the customers’ yachts?” Of course, the customers could not afford yachts, even though they dutifully followed the advice of their bankers and brokers.
The document summarizes the key findings of the Global Financial Centres Index 15 (GFCI 15). Some of the main points include:
- New York surpassed London as the top-ranked global financial center, though the difference between the two is small. Hong Kong and Singapore remained third and fourth.
- London experienced the largest drop among the top 50 centers due to issues like regulatory failures, uncertainty over EU membership, and an unwelcoming environment for foreign workers.
- Middle Eastern centers like Qatar, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi continued rising in the ranks.
- Most European centers declined as the region remains in turmoil. Offshore centers also struggled with reputation and regulation issues.
If The China Bubble Bursts: A Symposium of ViewsEcon Matters
If China's asset bubble were to burst:
1) The surrounding export hubs would be most directly affected initially, with a significant hit to global growth.
2) Foreign companies invested in China would be among the biggest victims as Chinese authorities may force wage hikes or transfers of production capacity to other countries.
3) A bursting bubble could severely damage China's banking sector through non-performing loans if regional governments and real estate investors default on debt, potentially leading to a credit crunch.
Cushman & Wakefield 2016 Capital Markets OutlookMatthew Marshall
The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016. Some key points:
- Global property investment volumes fell 2.4% in 2015, the first decline in 6 years, driven by lower volumes in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- The US saw the strongest growth at 25% and accounted for 39% of global volumes. Yields fell globally but recovery has been uneven by region.
- In 2016, core assets in major cities will remain popular. Demand will need to spread to new sectors and markets to find opportunities. Emerging markets may stabilize later in the year.
- Structural changes like
- The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016.
- Global property investment volumes fell slightly for the first time in 6 years in 2015, down 2.4% to $1.29 trillion, driven by a pullback in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- Going forward, the focus will be on core assets that provide value to occupants. Investors will seek platforms for local intelligence and pursue opportunities such as modern flexible office, retail, and logistics space in gateway cities.
Ricardo V Lago -Interbank- Lima-22 04 2009 neiracar
Conferencia a la alta Gerencia de Intergroup en Lima el 22 de abril , 2009 sobre perspectivas de las economias mundial y peruana y oportunidades de inversion en bolsa
This document is a newsletter from Q3 2013 that includes the following articles:
- An introduction that looks back at the market recovery since the Great Recession and lessons for investors who stayed invested versus those who withdrew during the downturn.
- An announcement for a holiday party in December 2013.
- An article discussing how dire predictions often don't come true and investors should focus on positive economic factors.
- A piece about managing retirement accounts held outside of the main brokerage to get a full view of clients' finances.
- A section touting the strong economy and job growth in Houston, Texas.
- A brief discussion on whether it's a good time to start investing now rather
The global economy is expanding more slowly than expected, with problems including slumping markets, high sovereign debt, and public bond defaults. While Europe's recovery is also facing headwinds, the region has seen unexpectedly strong earnings growth from companies. Momentum in Europe is being driven by a declining euro boosting exports, lower oil prices fueling consumer spending, and stimulus from the European Central Bank. However, structural issues like high unemployment and debt levels remain challenges. The document examines opportunities in specific European companies and warns that some municipal bonds like Puerto Rico's appropriation bonds are riskier than others due to their repayment structure being subject to political discretion over funding.
NIC voorspelde gewijzigde machtsverhoudingen na pandemieThierry Debels
Het rapport 'Mapping the Global Future' van het NIC voorspelde in 2004 gewijzigde machtsverhoudingen na een pandemie. Dat scenario speelt zich vandaag af.
The document provides an overview and analysis of European fund market flows in 2013 based on data from Lipper FundFile. Some key points:
- Total estimated net sales in European funds was €183.5 billion in 2013. Bond funds saw €96 billion in sales while equity funds saw €92 billion and mixed assets funds saw €85 billion.
- Risk appetite increased in 2013 compared to 2012, leading to stronger flows into equity funds across most major European countries except Germany.
- Mixed assets funds proved popular, especially in Italy, the UK and Germany, with cross-border funds accounting for €37 billion of mixed assets sales.
- BlackRock maintained the top spot for European fund sales at €32
The document provides an economic forecast for Houston, Texas in 2009. It predicts that the Houston metropolitan area will lose 45,700 jobs, or 1.7% of its total employment, from December 2008 to December 2009. It expects job losses across many industries as national economic growth remains negative, oil prices decline sharply, and a tight credit market continues to impact the economy. However, the forecast also notes that Houston should still perform better than the national economy and avoid losses on the scale seen in previous severe recessions.
1) The document discusses the demographic challenges facing Eastern Europe as a result of rapidly aging populations and declining birth rates.
2) These demographic shifts contributed to the debt crisis by impacting patterns of saving, borrowing, and global capital flows as countries passed through different stages of the demographic transition.
3) Unless policies are implemented to raise fertility rates and extend working lives, population aging will put significant pressure on sovereign debt and public finances, with some estimates showing debt levels rising to over 300% of GDP by 2050 in developed countries.
The document summarizes key trends and uncertainties in global affairs expected between now and 2020, including:
- The rise of China and India as major global economic powers, with their GDPs projected to surpass many Western countries. How their growing influence is exercised internationally is uncertain.
- Other developing countries like Brazil and Indonesia may also become important economic players.
- Europe will remain influential if it addresses issues like aging populations and immigration, but its role is uncertain.
- Russia has potential due to energy exports but faces demographic and instability challenges limiting its global role.
- Traditional geopolitical categories may become obsolete as new global actors emerge and the world becomes less state-bound.
- In October 2008, global stock markets experienced their worst month since the 1987 crash as fears about the health of the world economy rose sharply. The S&P 500 fell over 23% during the first eight trading days alone.
- The credit crisis that began with the housing bust in the US escalated in September with Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, igniting a wave of risk aversion across markets. Selling accelerated as investors fled stocks and hedge funds were forced to dump holdings.
- Central banks around the world coordinated unprecedented interest rate cuts and liquidity measures. Governments also allocated over $3 trillion for bailouts and stimulus to stabilize markets and confidence. These actions helped pare losses by month's end.
The document discusses key economic dynamics affecting corporate success in a globalized world. It notes that since the late 18th century, international economic bonds have strengthened through increased global trade, capital flows, and investment opportunities. This has opened new markets for corporations in places like Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Asia. However, weaknesses in the US economy like a lack of competitiveness and protectionism have eroded its technological advantage relative to countries like Germany and Japan that maintain close industry-government cooperation. Macroeconomic indicators in the US like GDP, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates have also been negatively impacted by the global economic crisis. For companies to succeed in this environment requires prudence, expanding operations to benefit from economies of scale
Human beings, servants of the financial systemGRAZIA TANTA
1 - The uncontrolled expansion of the financial system
2 - The power and size of the financial sector
3 - Financial sector liabilities and their evolution
4 - Financial liabilities and minimum wages
The document summarizes how China's economic reforms that opened up the economy are now reversing as the global financial crisis spreads. State ownership of industries is increasing again as companies seek government support. The aviation, power, and automotive industries have all seen rising state control and ownership again. While nationalization elsewhere causes stock prices to fall, in China prices often rise with greater state backing. However, increased state control comes at the cost of reduced efficiency and risk of corruption.
The document discusses several topics including:
1. Investment strategies that favor cash, midstream energy MLPs, metals, municipal bonds, and mutual funds focused on dividend growth companies.
2. The causes and impacts of the 2008 financial crisis, including widespread wealth destruction and the need for government intervention to stabilize financial systems.
3. Political dysfunctions that stem from dualistic thinking and an overemphasis on differences rather than a nondual approach that celebrates unity and interconnection.
Europe a continent that turns into a peninsulaGRAZIA TANTA
We have become used to considering Europe as a continent. What if the political and economic realities transform it from an American dependency to an Asian peninsula?
The document discusses how the recession has impacted the luxury goods industry. It summarizes that:
- The luxury market has shrunk significantly as consumers can no longer afford luxury goods and attitudes towards conspicuous consumption have changed.
- Luxury brands are shifting away from mass-market strategies and logos to focus on quality and sustainability. However, emerging markets like China are becoming important growth areas.
- In developed nations, there is now a stigma against flaunting wealth given job losses. The ultra-wealthy are embracing frugality and discretion in their purchasing to avoid "luxury shame."
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
Us economy goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore timessatya saurabh khosla
The author's article that appeared in Business Times, Singapore on Oct 4, 2007 stated that USA Housing, low interest rates and derivatives will lead the global economy into a recession
An afro arab spring - socio-political trajectories in stemming the tide of th...Costy Costantinos
The financial, economic and for many, the livelihood, crisis that erupted in 2008 showed a cliffy downward freefall of economic trajectories unheard of in recent memory. The outbreak of the financial crisis provoked a broad liquidation of investments, substantial loss in wealth worldwide, a tightening of lending conditions, and a widespread increase in uncertainty. Higher borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions, coupled with the increase in uncertainty provoked a global flight to quality, caused firms to cut back on investment expenditures, and households to delay purchases of big-ticket items. Unemployment is on the rise, bringing with it a substantial deterioration in conditions for the most vulnerable. The sharp rise in commodity prices eventually resulted in The Arab Spring
The world economy has twice before enjoyed a super-cycle. It may now be
experiencing its third super-cycle.
To put it in context, it is defined here as, “A period of historically high global growth,
lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment,
urbanisation and technological innovation, characterised by the emergence of large,
new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world.”
The first super-cycle took place during the second half of the 19th century, from 1870
until 1913, the eve of the First World War. At that time, the world economy witnessed
a significant step-up in its rate of growth, rising 2.7% on average per annum in
volume, or real, terms. That was a full 1% higher than the average growth rate seen
during the previous half-century. America was the big gainer, moving from the fourthlargest
to the largest economy. The second super-cycle was after the Second World
War until the early 1970s. World growth averaged a huge 5% per annum, again in
real or inflation-adjusted terms. Japan and the Asian tigers saw the biggest gains
over this time. Japan, for instance, moved from 3% to 10% of the world economy.
- The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016.
- Global property investment volumes fell slightly for the first time in 6 years in 2015, down 2.4% to $1.29 trillion, driven by a pullback in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- Going forward, the focus will be on core assets that provide value to occupants. Investors will seek platforms for local intelligence and pursue opportunities such as modern flexible office, retail, and logistics space in gateway cities.
Ricardo V Lago -Interbank- Lima-22 04 2009 neiracar
Conferencia a la alta Gerencia de Intergroup en Lima el 22 de abril , 2009 sobre perspectivas de las economias mundial y peruana y oportunidades de inversion en bolsa
This document is a newsletter from Q3 2013 that includes the following articles:
- An introduction that looks back at the market recovery since the Great Recession and lessons for investors who stayed invested versus those who withdrew during the downturn.
- An announcement for a holiday party in December 2013.
- An article discussing how dire predictions often don't come true and investors should focus on positive economic factors.
- A piece about managing retirement accounts held outside of the main brokerage to get a full view of clients' finances.
- A section touting the strong economy and job growth in Houston, Texas.
- A brief discussion on whether it's a good time to start investing now rather
The global economy is expanding more slowly than expected, with problems including slumping markets, high sovereign debt, and public bond defaults. While Europe's recovery is also facing headwinds, the region has seen unexpectedly strong earnings growth from companies. Momentum in Europe is being driven by a declining euro boosting exports, lower oil prices fueling consumer spending, and stimulus from the European Central Bank. However, structural issues like high unemployment and debt levels remain challenges. The document examines opportunities in specific European companies and warns that some municipal bonds like Puerto Rico's appropriation bonds are riskier than others due to their repayment structure being subject to political discretion over funding.
NIC voorspelde gewijzigde machtsverhoudingen na pandemieThierry Debels
Het rapport 'Mapping the Global Future' van het NIC voorspelde in 2004 gewijzigde machtsverhoudingen na een pandemie. Dat scenario speelt zich vandaag af.
The document provides an overview and analysis of European fund market flows in 2013 based on data from Lipper FundFile. Some key points:
- Total estimated net sales in European funds was €183.5 billion in 2013. Bond funds saw €96 billion in sales while equity funds saw €92 billion and mixed assets funds saw €85 billion.
- Risk appetite increased in 2013 compared to 2012, leading to stronger flows into equity funds across most major European countries except Germany.
- Mixed assets funds proved popular, especially in Italy, the UK and Germany, with cross-border funds accounting for €37 billion of mixed assets sales.
- BlackRock maintained the top spot for European fund sales at €32
The document provides an economic forecast for Houston, Texas in 2009. It predicts that the Houston metropolitan area will lose 45,700 jobs, or 1.7% of its total employment, from December 2008 to December 2009. It expects job losses across many industries as national economic growth remains negative, oil prices decline sharply, and a tight credit market continues to impact the economy. However, the forecast also notes that Houston should still perform better than the national economy and avoid losses on the scale seen in previous severe recessions.
1) The document discusses the demographic challenges facing Eastern Europe as a result of rapidly aging populations and declining birth rates.
2) These demographic shifts contributed to the debt crisis by impacting patterns of saving, borrowing, and global capital flows as countries passed through different stages of the demographic transition.
3) Unless policies are implemented to raise fertility rates and extend working lives, population aging will put significant pressure on sovereign debt and public finances, with some estimates showing debt levels rising to over 300% of GDP by 2050 in developed countries.
The document summarizes key trends and uncertainties in global affairs expected between now and 2020, including:
- The rise of China and India as major global economic powers, with their GDPs projected to surpass many Western countries. How their growing influence is exercised internationally is uncertain.
- Other developing countries like Brazil and Indonesia may also become important economic players.
- Europe will remain influential if it addresses issues like aging populations and immigration, but its role is uncertain.
- Russia has potential due to energy exports but faces demographic and instability challenges limiting its global role.
- Traditional geopolitical categories may become obsolete as new global actors emerge and the world becomes less state-bound.
- In October 2008, global stock markets experienced their worst month since the 1987 crash as fears about the health of the world economy rose sharply. The S&P 500 fell over 23% during the first eight trading days alone.
- The credit crisis that began with the housing bust in the US escalated in September with Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, igniting a wave of risk aversion across markets. Selling accelerated as investors fled stocks and hedge funds were forced to dump holdings.
- Central banks around the world coordinated unprecedented interest rate cuts and liquidity measures. Governments also allocated over $3 trillion for bailouts and stimulus to stabilize markets and confidence. These actions helped pare losses by month's end.
The document discusses key economic dynamics affecting corporate success in a globalized world. It notes that since the late 18th century, international economic bonds have strengthened through increased global trade, capital flows, and investment opportunities. This has opened new markets for corporations in places like Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Asia. However, weaknesses in the US economy like a lack of competitiveness and protectionism have eroded its technological advantage relative to countries like Germany and Japan that maintain close industry-government cooperation. Macroeconomic indicators in the US like GDP, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates have also been negatively impacted by the global economic crisis. For companies to succeed in this environment requires prudence, expanding operations to benefit from economies of scale
Human beings, servants of the financial systemGRAZIA TANTA
1 - The uncontrolled expansion of the financial system
2 - The power and size of the financial sector
3 - Financial sector liabilities and their evolution
4 - Financial liabilities and minimum wages
The document summarizes how China's economic reforms that opened up the economy are now reversing as the global financial crisis spreads. State ownership of industries is increasing again as companies seek government support. The aviation, power, and automotive industries have all seen rising state control and ownership again. While nationalization elsewhere causes stock prices to fall, in China prices often rise with greater state backing. However, increased state control comes at the cost of reduced efficiency and risk of corruption.
The document discusses several topics including:
1. Investment strategies that favor cash, midstream energy MLPs, metals, municipal bonds, and mutual funds focused on dividend growth companies.
2. The causes and impacts of the 2008 financial crisis, including widespread wealth destruction and the need for government intervention to stabilize financial systems.
3. Political dysfunctions that stem from dualistic thinking and an overemphasis on differences rather than a nondual approach that celebrates unity and interconnection.
Europe a continent that turns into a peninsulaGRAZIA TANTA
We have become used to considering Europe as a continent. What if the political and economic realities transform it from an American dependency to an Asian peninsula?
The document discusses how the recession has impacted the luxury goods industry. It summarizes that:
- The luxury market has shrunk significantly as consumers can no longer afford luxury goods and attitudes towards conspicuous consumption have changed.
- Luxury brands are shifting away from mass-market strategies and logos to focus on quality and sustainability. However, emerging markets like China are becoming important growth areas.
- In developed nations, there is now a stigma against flaunting wealth given job losses. The ultra-wealthy are embracing frugality and discretion in their purchasing to avoid "luxury shame."
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
Us economy goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore timessatya saurabh khosla
The author's article that appeared in Business Times, Singapore on Oct 4, 2007 stated that USA Housing, low interest rates and derivatives will lead the global economy into a recession
An afro arab spring - socio-political trajectories in stemming the tide of th...Costy Costantinos
The financial, economic and for many, the livelihood, crisis that erupted in 2008 showed a cliffy downward freefall of economic trajectories unheard of in recent memory. The outbreak of the financial crisis provoked a broad liquidation of investments, substantial loss in wealth worldwide, a tightening of lending conditions, and a widespread increase in uncertainty. Higher borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions, coupled with the increase in uncertainty provoked a global flight to quality, caused firms to cut back on investment expenditures, and households to delay purchases of big-ticket items. Unemployment is on the rise, bringing with it a substantial deterioration in conditions for the most vulnerable. The sharp rise in commodity prices eventually resulted in The Arab Spring
The world economy has twice before enjoyed a super-cycle. It may now be
experiencing its third super-cycle.
To put it in context, it is defined here as, “A period of historically high global growth,
lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment,
urbanisation and technological innovation, characterised by the emergence of large,
new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world.”
The first super-cycle took place during the second half of the 19th century, from 1870
until 1913, the eve of the First World War. At that time, the world economy witnessed
a significant step-up in its rate of growth, rising 2.7% on average per annum in
volume, or real, terms. That was a full 1% higher than the average growth rate seen
during the previous half-century. America was the big gainer, moving from the fourthlargest
to the largest economy. The second super-cycle was after the Second World
War until the early 1970s. World growth averaged a huge 5% per annum, again in
real or inflation-adjusted terms. Japan and the Asian tigers saw the biggest gains
over this time. Japan, for instance, moved from 3% to 10% of the world economy.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
For all those that missed out last month in Chicago, we’ve crafted a full round up of our 3PL Summit & CSCO Forum. There’s coverage of the major sessions at the event, as well as up-to-date market research on the latest trends set to impact the industry.
Week 7 Discussion - Global Trends for the Future International Bus.docxcockekeshia
This document discusses two options - a stock split or stock dividend - for the Pear Corporation to consider to lower its stock price from over $50 per share to a more normal trading range. As the company's investment banker, the assistant would recommend a stock split because it would lower the stock price directly to allow for more trading volume and flexibility, while also enhancing current shareholder wealth and keeping long-term growth prospects intact. A stock split is generally the best strategy to accomplish all three goals.
Understanding the coming domination of Chinese Yuan mnathani
The document discusses the growing prominence of the Chinese yuan (CNY) as an alternative international reserve currency to the US dollar. It notes that China's GDP and foreign exchange reserves have grown rapidly in recent decades. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that by 2020, 28% of China's international trade will be denominated in yuan, China's capital account will be more open, and the yuan will be a freely floating currency. The document suggests the international community should consider establishing a new reserve currency to replace the dollar and reforming international financial institutions to be less US-centric.
Understanding the coming domination of chinese yuanmnathani
This document discusses the growing prominence of the Chinese Yuan as an alternative international reserve currency to the US Dollar. It notes that China's GDP and foreign exchange reserves have grown rapidly in recent decades, while its currency has steadily appreciated. It predicts that by 2020, the Yuan will be more widely used in international trade and financial markets. The document advocates for reforms to international financial institutions to give emerging economies more influence, and the introduction of a new reserve currency to replace the dominant US Dollar.
1. The Davos 2016 conference focused on the theme of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the technological changes impacting the global economy.
2. Slowing growth in China and uncertainty around a potential UK exit from the EU were key economic concerns.
3. Growing inequality, concerns over job losses due to automation, and the global migration crisis were discussed as major social issues.
4. Business leaders need to think long-term, embrace collaboration and creativity, focus on trust and authenticity, and commit to personal growth to navigate uncertainty.
This document discusses the global financial crisis that began in 2007-2008 and its impacts. It provides background on how the crisis started with the US housing market collapse and spread globally. It then summarizes recent news headlines reflecting ongoing issues and debates around global economic recovery efforts. Charts on international trade flows and GDP statistics by country are also presented.
http://pwc.to/11CB1Xq
Dans son étude « Working Capital Survey 2013 », PwC montre que la performance BFR (Besoin en Fonds de Roulement, soit la trésorerie mobilisée par l’activité) des entreprises mondiales s'est dégradée de 2 % par rapport à l'année dernière. Seule exception, les sociétés européennes ont amélioré leur situation, démontrant une corrélation entre PIB et niveaux de BFR.
Chapter 7 The Global Financial CrisisTHE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRIS.docxbissacr
Chapter 7 The Global Financial Crisis
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS HAD WIDESPREAD EFFECTS. In its early days in September 2008, a trader reacted to the numbers on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange as the Dow plummeted.
Learning Objectives
1. 7.1Evaluate the causes that contributed to creating the financial crisis
2. 7.2Review the impact of the global financial crisis on different world economies, business, employment, and global power shifts
3. 7.3Evaluate the concerns that made different countries respond in different ways to the financial crisis
Financial crises and accompanying economic recessions have occurred throughout history. Periodic crises appear to be part of financial systems of dominant or global powers. The United States was at the epicenter of the financial crisis of 2008–2009. Enjoying a unipolar moment following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the failure of Communism, the United States was confident that economic liberalization and the proliferation of computer and communications technologies would contribute to ever-increasing global economic growth and prosperity. Globalization contributed to the extraordinary accumulation of wealth by a relatively few individuals and created greater inequality. In an effort to reduce inequality in the United States, the government implemented policies that engendered the financial crisis.
As we discussed in Chapter1, is usually the leading force in the growth of globalization. The rise of great powers is inextricably linked to access to investments and their ability to function as leading financial centers, as we saw in Chapter2. Their decline is also closely linked to financial problems. Finance enables entrepreneurs to start various enterprises and to become competitors of established companies. It is also essential to innovation and scientific discoveries. Finance also facilitates risk sharing and provides insurance for risk takers. Countries that have large financial sectors tend to grow faster, their inhabitants are generally richer, and there are more opportunities. Financial globalization contributed to unprecedented growth and prosperity around the world. China and India became significant economic powers, and the industrialized countries grew even richer. Closely integrated into the financial system are banks and investment firms. When the financial system is in crisis, banks reduce lending, companies often face bankruptcy, and unemployment rises. Ultimately, as we saw in the financial crisis of 2008–2009, many banks fail.
The financial crisis triggered a global economic recession that resulted in more than $4.1 trillion in losses, saw unemployment rates that climbed to more than 10 percent in the United States and higher elsewhere, and increased poverty. Stock markets around the world crashed. American investors lost roughly 40 percent of the value of their savings. Housing prices plummeted from their record highs in 2006. Consumers reduced their spending, manufactu.
Main Streets Across the World 2015-2016David Bourla
In this report, we track over 500 of the top retail streets around the globe to bring you a ranking of the most expensive retail locations in the world, one per country using their prime rental value.
The document discusses several economic and political issues:
1) European authorities have struggled to effectively address the escalating sovereign debt crisis, providing only temporary solutions while the problems get worse.
2) The US debt level has risen significantly due to tax cuts, spending increases, and the financial crisis, reaching nearly 100% of GDP.
3) Emerging markets saw large declines as investors fled to safe havens like US treasuries, though some emerging countries remain attractive long-term investments due to growth and demographics.
4) South Africa faces economic challenges including slowing growth compared to other emerging markets, while political risks also loom over policy and foreign investment.
Global debt levels are at an all-time high of over $255 trillion as of 2019, up significantly from $200 trillion in 2011. While global growth has slowed, the growth rate of debt continues to rise, mirroring debt levels prior to previous debt crises. High debt levels have historically been correlated with periods of low interest rates and extra debt burdens that leave economies vulnerable to rate increases or declines in output. Current debt levels as a percentage of global GDP are also at their highest since the last crisis in 2008. With debt continuing to outpace economic growth, concerns are rising around the sustainability of high debt levels and the potential for another global debt crisis.
The report summarizes the findings of The Economist Intelligence Unit's 2017 Global Liveability Report, which ranks 140 cities worldwide based on their living conditions. Melbourne, Australia remains the most liveable city for the seventh year in a row, followed closely by Vienna, Austria. However, global stability scores have declined in recent years due to increasing acts of terrorism worldwide. While the top cities have remained largely unchanged, some have seen declines in their rankings due to threats of unrest or attacks. Conflict continues to severely restrict living conditions in the bottom-ranked cities such as Damascus, Syria and Tripoli, Libya.
1) The document discusses the Beijing Consensus model of development that has emerged based on China's economic growth strategies, which differ from the Washington Consensus promoted by the IMF and World Bank.
2) The Beijing Consensus emphasizes innovation, improving quality of life over just GDP, and national self-determination or sovereignty. It could replace the Washington Consensus as a development model for other countries.
3) However, the global financial crisis poses a major challenge to the sustainability of China's growth model and whether the Beijing Consensus will succeed as an alternative development path for other nations remains uncertain depending on how China weathers the crisis compared to other countries.
The document discusses the globalization of finance and its risks and challenges. It notes that while financial globalization has benefits like increased capital flows and more efficient allocation of resources, it also contributed to the global financial crisis. Countries with less integrated financial systems were less affected by the crisis. The document argues that truly global financial regulation would be difficult given that fiscal policy authority lies with independent governments, not global bodies, and coordinated regulation could impose the wrong models globally. Overall, the document provides an overview of financial globalization and examines its pros and cons based on the recent financial crisis experience.
U.S. Health Insurance Exchanges — Moving ForwardEmily Jackson
This document provides an economic forecast and analysis of global economic conditions. It discusses how the global recovery is now 3 years old but celebrations are muted as growth has been slow. Growth is forecast to be 3.1% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013. The deepening recession in the eurozone is a key factor slowing growth as debt strains continue in many countries. Recent EU agreements provide support but long-term solutions are still uncertain. Slowdowns in Europe are moderating growth in North America and Asia through reduced exports. China, India, and Brazil are taking steps to boost growth through interest rate cuts and fiscal measures. The US has potential for relative outperformance but growth is also slowing there.
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Digitaldiffusion
GLOBAL SCENARIOS
Strategic Resilience and Foresight
2. Global Scenarios
Beyond trend-line analysis
It is clear that politically driven choices and limitations can alter the trajectory of global economic growth and sustainable
development. Our structured approach to scenario analysis recognises this array of plausible contingencies and outcomes.
We go beyond trend-line forecasts to account for the societal, political and security uncertainties that can alter established
trends. Our process focuses on the most significant and uncertain drivers of change, and incorporates insights from our
bespoke work and our 1,400-strong global network of experts via focus groups, critiquing and stress-testing.
Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm which draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its
clients on their strategy and performance. Our insights and judgements on global issues enable our clients to succeed
in a world where the nexus of politics and economics, state and business is critical.
3. These ten-year scenarios for the global
political economy demonstrate Oxford
Analytica’s approach to scenario analysis:
The end of globalisation as we know it
Economic growth lags behind expectations
and the sources of global power evaporate.
Digital diffusion
In a world of diffuse global power, trade
and diplomacy consolidate around regions
but a global virtual network thrives.
A new Washington consensus
The United States emerges as the
preponderant power, but only by default.
Building blocs of growth
Unprecedented climatic volatility creates
extraordinary cost burdens – but also
opens up new avenues of global
cooperation.
It is tempting to regard past performance as a
predictor of future outcomes. Yet the extraordinary
developments of the last decade suggest the
opposite. If there is one thing we know with
certainty, it is that the world in ten years will bear
little resemblance to the one in which we live today.
Oxford Analytica regards scenario analysis as a cornerstone
of strategic planning and risk management. By considering
alternate futures and how they might be realised, we help
our clients challenge underlying assumptions, develop
more resilient strategies and position themselves to thrive
in a volatile world.
What we can we do for you
Oxford Analytica works closely with clients to identify how
they can most effectively use scenarios to improve strategy
and performance. Among our services are:
__ scenario frameworks and narratives based on your
regions and sectors of interest
__ econometric modelling and stress testing
__ interactive scenario analysis training or facilitation
workshops
__ market and portfolio analysis for asset managers
__ strategic benchmarking – uncovering the hidden
assumptions behind your organisation’s long-term
planning.
Contact us to begin the discussion:
scenarios@oxford-analytica.com
Global Scenarios
Strategic resilience and foresight
Our Global Scenarios can be
adapted for your business or created
on a bespoke basis around your
focal question or strategy.
oxan.to/scenarios
4. Extreme
weakness in
Europe and Japan
Doha round
collapses again
Diplomatic
stalemate
over Syria
Greece
gets
third bailout
Surging
populism
Trade
disputes
accelerate
worldwide
Entrenched
diversity in
economic models
Growth
divergence
between EMs
Diplomatic
confrontation
over Iran
Democratic
governments
under strain
Restrictions
on immigration
increased
Weakened
demand
in China
Promotion
of national
champions
Chinese
banking crisis
Illiberal
governments
in Europe
Oil price
volatility
EM
investment
flows reverse
Low-level
Middle East
proxy conflict
The
end of
globalisation
as we know it
Globalisation
slows
OUTCOMETIMELINE10YEARS8YEARS6YEARS4YEARS2YEARS
US
monetary
tightening
mismanaged
The end of globalisation as we know it
In a world in which economic growth is below expectations and
sources of global power evaporate, trade disputes accelerate
and populism surges.
The re-collapse of the Doha Round further marginalises the World Trade
Organisation, reducing its ability to function as an effective venue for
dispute resolution. Investment flows reverse from emerging markets
to North America, the European and Japanese economies remain
extremely weak and economic turmoil besets China in the form of a
banking crisis, followed by a sharp drop in demand.
These outcomes drive many major economies to engage
in protectionism, furthering a vicious cycle of underlying
low growth. Performance diverges most sharply among
emerging markets. This leads to entrenched diversity in
economic models, with some states increasingly relying
on national champions, while others form trade blocs
of the willing. Populism surges worldwide, straining
representative governments, particularly in Europe.
Meanwhile, an increasingly unstable Middle East
locks major powers in a persistent diplomatic
impasse and keeps oil prices volatile.
Global Scenario One
5. Greater
tech and
energy sustainability
China
cleans up
China gets
a carrier
India
liberalises
economy
China
joins TPP and
IP agreement
Contained
Middle East
Shale
revolution
crosses the
Atlantic
BoP
crises
in some
emergers
US and EU
trade treaty
UK stays
in the EU
Central
banks lead
economic
coordination
EU
growth
good enough
Russia
decays
Web
of regional
trade agreements
US
power
softens
EM
takeovers
of Western
multinationals
Rio
rises
Digital
haves and
have nots
3D
printing
kicks off
Digital
diffusion
US
immigration
reform
OUTCOMETIMELINE10YEARS8YEARS6YEARS4YEARS2YEARS
Digital diffusion
In a world of diffuse global power, trade and diplomacy consolidate
around regions but a vibrant virtual network spans the globe.
Technological innovations and energy sustainability promote robust
– albeit uneven – growth, with prosperity defined by the digital
haves and have-nots.
Regional trade agreements and the globalisation of unconventional
energy revitalise growth in the West, even as QE tapering sparks
balance of payments crises in some emerging markets. Central
banks are swift to react and coordinate, enabling the emergers to
rise once again, led by Brazil and India.
3D manufacturing becomes scalable, boosting productivity
and accelerating in-sourcing. North America achieves
energy self-sufficiency, and the United States dials
back its military footprint while expanding its soft
power presence.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s intensifying engagement
on the global stage prompts a clean-up of its
politics and its environment.
High-profile emerging market takeovers of
Western multinationals signpost a more
diverse economic balance of power.
Global Scenario Two
6. Two-tier
technology
Dependence
on US / ME
energy exports
Migration
restricted
US
achieves
energy
self-sufficiency
Saudi
succession
struggle
South Asia /
SE Asia
crisis
US
economic
resilience
Failure of
Abenomics
Euro-area
stagnation
Protests
and
crackdown
in China
End
of the
commodity
supercycle
African
growth
slips back
Russian
recession
Degradation
of global
governance
China
fraught
leadership
Agricultural
protectionism
and
self-sufficiency
Aspiring
middle class
fails to emerge
Supply
chains
contract
Crumbling
BRIC(S)
A new
Washington
consensus
China
banking crisis
OUTCOMETIMELINE10YEARS8YEARS6YEARS4YEARS2YEARS
A new Washington consensus
In this low-growth world, the United States emerges as the
preponderant power, but only by default: Europe is mired
in stagnation, China suffers severe financial and political
stresses, and nearly all other large emerging markets fail to
fulfil their promise.
A crumbling China has devastating effects for lower-income
economies in Africa and South-east Asia, whose prospects dim
as global supply chains shrink and commodity demand slides.
The aspiring global middle class fails to emerge: while
Beijing and other global cities are rocked by protests,
some societies manage to contain potential revolutions
by shifting back to basics – agricultural sustainability
and self-sufficiency. North America remains an
island of economic resilience, but the United
States has little interest in forging meaningful
global governance with such weak and
problematic allies.
Pockets of digital dynamism remain,
but in this profoundly unequal world,
technology has failed to spur social
mobility or political empowerment.
Global Scenario Three
7. US-China
bipolarity
China
and Taiwan:
one country,
two systems
Chinese
domestic
demand
gains momentum
Negotiated
solution to
the Syrian crisis
Russia
re-engages
with the
world community
TPP
concluded
GCC
reforms
deferred
Savings rate
falls in China
Start of
Europe's
recovery
Tighter
multilateral
internet
regimes
US-EU
Free Trade
Agreement
signed
Democrats
retain
White House
Post-Kyoto
climate accord
Arctic
resources
open up
Regional
hegemons
dominate
European
fiscal union
Shale gas
goes global
Europe
facilitates
skilled labour
migration
Iran-US
rapprochement
Building
blocs of growth
Natural
disasters
create
unprecedented
cost burdens
OUTCOMETIMELINE10YEARS8YEARS6YEARS4YEARS2YEARS
Building blocs of growth
Unprecedented climatic volatility creates extraordinary cost
burdens – but also opens up new avenues of global consensus and
cooperation. Decision-making is led by the United States, China
and a re-emergent European Union, which achieves fiscal union
by the early 2020s.
This world is buffeted by an array of climate-related disasters, pushing
savings rates down in China, creating supply chain disruptions
across major economies, and initially creating a higher commodity
price environment.
Yet the shared threat and rising costs of environmental
calamities also create space for greater global
convergence, paving the way for a negotiated
solution to the Syrian crisis, and eventually towards
rapprochement between the United States and Iran.
Thanks partly to the globalisation of unconventional
gas and the opening of Arctic resources, this is
ultimately a robust growth trajectory for most
major markets.
However, with Washington shifting
strategic focus towards Asia, the United
States and China ultimately face off
in a stable but highly competitive
regional balancing of economic
and geopolitical power.
Global Scenario Four
8. Case studies
A European asset management firm
Macro diligence scenarios
By integrating qualitative scenario
methodologies, econometric
modelling and stress testing, we
provided our client with ten-year
perspectives on the global political
economy. The following year, we
updated the scenarios based on
new data and reconsidered the
impact of additional contingencies.
Our approach allowed the client to calibrate its
investment strategy in key sectors of interest – and
uncover long-term growth opportunities.
Oxford Analytica has carried out customised scenario engagements for clients from a range
of sectors, including natural resources, financial services, and consumer goods – as well as for
international institutions.
A banking and financial services firm
Scenario stress testing
Alongside our client’s risk group,
we facilitated the development
of five adverse scenarios for the
global economy and assisted
in subsequent stress testing
exercises.
Our work is forming the basis for
more complex projections, which
the bank will use during upcoming
regulatory reviews.
International organisations
Scenario analysis training
We have trained teams of diplomats
and analysts at several international
organisations. The interactive
workshops are customised to focus
on the institutional and programmatic
contexts of the clients.
Participants integrate scenario
analysis into their work in
crisis management and conflict
response throughout the Middle East, sub-Saharan
Africa and other regions.
Allianz Global Investors
Scenario-driven thought leadership
We collaborated with the asset
management arm of Allianz to
explore four scenarios for the
development of the private pension
market in China.
The client included our analysis
in its Market Trends and Surveys
working paper series, which
is designed to encourage
organisations to consider alternative strategies and
contingency plans.
SCENARIO
ANALYSIS TRAINING
SCENARIO-DRIVEN
THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
MACRO DILIGENCE SCENARIOS
FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
SCENARIO
STRESS TESTING
Adding value for our clients
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