Paire of introductory presentations for MIoIR course "Scenarios for Research" (run by Rafael Popper and Ozcan Saritas)

6. Futures Studies Networking Priority Informing Setting Decisions Three Facets of Foresight Prospectives Participation FORESIGHT Planning

12. Knowledge of Actual and Potential Evolution Competitors Clients Suppliers Collaborators Regulators Financiers Markets Social & Institutional Env Natural & Physical Env Process Technology Management Organisational Structure/ Design Routines Techniques Human Resources Product Technology & Design Health and Safety Sustainability Business Ethics CSR Science & Technology Location

13. Knowledge of Actual and Potential Evolution Internal Environment External Environment Strategies Formal versus informal foresight; Routine versus emergency; Internal “versus” External Trend detecting and watching – main trends, weak signals Envisaging possible and plausible futures Opportunities as well as challenges - Coping with, changing, creating the future

14. Functions of Foresight Public Relations Building Markets Influencing other stakeholders – Regulators, financiers, business partners, Standards-setters… Building a shared vision of a desirable future – or one to avoid at all costs Selecting priorities Designing strategies, assessing robustness Different functions may require different legitimation and expertise Exchanging knowledge, creating awareness

15. Swiss Re - SONAR

16. Swiss Re - SONAR

18. Some examples

20. Daimler Chrysler From Frank Ruff

21. Daimler Chrysler From Frank Ruff

25. Contrasts Scenarios, Vignettes, Profiles: Scenario – covers a wide range of features of the future, provides a multidimensional overview. Vignette - illustrates one element of the scenario in detail, usually through a narrative. Focuses on one dimension, others contextual. Profile - skeletal description of future in terms of key parameters.

37. Scenarios Used in “Flooding and Coastal defence” Study So: scenarios used in one study can be used to “seed” work in other studies – deskwork and/or groupwork

38. Scenarios Used in “Flooding and Coastal defence” Study

39. Scenarios Used in “Flooding and Coastal defence” Study

45. Modelling e-skills

47. Genius scenarios - Joseph Coates 2025 Early 2000s – flat screens from office/domestic furniture or decorative tool for work & entertainment; International Global Warming Federation transfers technologies in response to global warming; breakthrough in battery technology for electric vehicles, giving range of 250 kilometres per charge; US formal industrial policy promoting greater industrial concentration; … US Energy Transition Act, mandating reduced energy use & providing tax incentives for switch to renewables; Human genes & functions fully matched, testing for susceptibility to genetic-based traits & diseases (many more are located than anticipated) with near certainty possible, eventually becomes routine. 2004 – Genetic Recording Act, safeguards for people’s genetic information reduces social resistance to genetics testing. 2006 – Authentication & Certification Act, requires certification of images with respect to authenticity or extent of doctoring. 2007 – Lima Space Weapons Treaty , preserves space as a weapons-free zone. 2009 – Adoption of global patent system . 2009 – ISO establishes materials characterisation standards covering composites & other advanced materials, enabling greater recycling & reclamation, easier materials choice & development of new applications.. 2010 – Recognition of prenatal psychology as a scientific discipline, establishment of practices of prenatal intervention for mental stimulation & personality shaping. 2010s – Rise of the Quality of Life movement , emphasising improved everyday life, aesthetics & amenities of home & community.

49. 1970s WORLD FUTURES: THE GREAT DEBATE – Deskwork Example ( Inward Scenarios) Futures capturing major controversies in literature - not necessarily desirable futures : thus a PROFILE approach Profile 1 Profile 3 Profile 2 Profile 4 High Growth Low Growth How could world economic development mean: What would it be like? How do we get there? Worldviews Low Equality High Equality

62. Some examples (1) ESRC Genomics Scenarios

64. Multiple Approaches for Determining Priorities

65. Framework for thinking about social research in relation to scientific (and other?) knowledge: Research can examine Social Structures, Processes, and Relations contributing to and resulting from: The production and ‘distribution’ of knowledge The application of knowledge in new products, processes, etc The social reception of knowledge in cultural discourse, etc The utilisation of new products and processes to achieve social and economic ends; influences on users and subjects of knowledge and associated instrumentalities

69. Social Science Research Priorities – How? & What? How?: Priorities related to Research Organizations and Process What?: Priorities related to Genomics Research Issues for Social Science:

73. End of Presentation