The document summarizes a presentation given by Fatima Toor of Lux Research on bifacial photovoltaic modules. It discusses how current crystalline silicon module technologies will not meet efficiency and cost targets to achieve $1 per watt system prices. Bifacial silicon modules are presented as a technology that can beat these targets by reaching 30% efficiency at a manufacturing cost of $0.36 per watt by 2030, enabling system prices below $1 per watt. The presentation outlines Lux Research's analysis of bifacial modules' potential for commercial feasibility and technology disruption compared to other photovoltaic technologies.

1. 2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
$1/W System Price: How Bifacial Modules
will Beat the Needed Efficiency and Cost
Targets
FatimaToor, Ph.D.
Research Analyst
Lux Research, Inc.
May 26th, 2014

2. 2
2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
Agenda
Photovoltaic (PV) MarketTrends
Defining the Need for PV Innovation
Bifacial Modules as the Winning Crystalline Silicon ModuleTechnology

3. 3
2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
100% Overcapacity in 2012…..however 2015 will
Bring Supply Constraint
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Module
Supply/
Demand
(MW)
Supply -Tier 1 Supply -Tier 2 Supply -Tier 3 Demand
Source: Lux Research
Q4 2013 SupplyTracker

4. 4
2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
Crystalline Silicon Will Dominate the PV Module
Demand
Source: Lux Research

5. 5
2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
Cost, Efficiency, and Price are the Fundamental Drivers
of the Photovoltaic Industry
Price & Profit
Margin
Incentives &
Demand
Cost & Module
Efficiency
Source: Lux Research

6. © Lux Research
6
2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
Projected Utility-scale Installation Prices Will Not
Reach SunShotTargets withToday’sTechnologies
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Installed
system price
($/W)
CdTe mc-Si Target
$0.90/W
$0.27/W $0.13/W
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

7. © Lux Research
7
2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
Incumbent ModuleTechnologies in 2013 Are Far aboveTarget
Cost and Efficiency Needed to Reduce System Prices Below $1/W
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Module Cost
($/W)
Module Efficiency (%)
Target module efficiency and cost necessary to reach $1/W system price
Below target
Above target
CdTe
CIGS
mc-Si
c-Si
TF-Si HCPV
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

8. © Lux Research
8
2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
Disruptive x-Si PVTechnologies Include, (A) Bifacial Solar Cells,
(B) Silver-free Solar Cell Metallization, and (C) Epitaxial Silicon
Solar Cells
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

9. © Lux Research
9
2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
Key Research Labs and Corporations Developing
Disruptive x-Si PVTechnologies
Key Innovations
Champion Cell Efficiency
(%)
Leading Research Groups
Large Corporations and
Start-ups
Bifacial solar cells
21.3% (Front)
19.8% (Rear)
Rohatgi (GeorgiaTech), Harney
(ISC-Konstanz), Warta
(Fraunhofer),Yang (JiaoTong
University)
ITRI, LG Electronics,
Hitachi, Panasonic,
Gamma Solar,Trina
Silver-free
metallization
23.5% (Electroplated copper)
Glunz, (Fraunhofer), Poortmans
(IMEC), Lee (Sejong University),
Lemiti (Lyon University)
SunPower, SolarWorld,
First Solar/TetraSun,
Solexel, Silevo, Hyundai
Heavy Industries,Total,
Kaneka,Technic, Rena,
Schmid
Epitaxial Si 20.6%
Poortmans (IMEC), Minowa
(Tokyo Institute ofTechnology),
Willeke (Fraunhofer), Bergmann
(University of Stuttgart)
Solexel, Silevo, Applied
Materials, Integrated
Photovoltaics,
AmberWave, Crystal Solar
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

10. © Lux Research
10
2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
Standard Mono-Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) Modules will
be BelowTarget with 21% efficiency at $0.46/W in 2030
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

11. © Lux Research
11
2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
Bifacial x-Si Modules will Beat the Efficiency and Cost
Targets Needed for $1/W System Price
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

12. © Lux Research
2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
2x2 PV’sTechnology Disruption Grid to Evaluate
Future-Facing PVTechnologies
Commercial FeasibilityTechnology Potential
• Manufactured Efficiency
Potential (40%)
• Materials Cost (25%)
• Durability/Lifetime (25%)
•Throughput Impact (10%)
• Process Maturity (40%)
• Scalability (30%)
• Material Similarity (20%)
• Capital Cost (10%)
Vertical Axis Horizontal Axis
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

13. © Lux Research
13
2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
Bifacial x-Si Modules will Lead the Way in PV
Innovation
Source: Lux Research Report, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation”

14. 14
2nd Bifacial PVWorkshop in Chambery, France
Easy to Scale and Manufacture, Bifacial x-Si Modules
will enable Cheap Solar Electricity Generation
PV innovation across the value chain is necessary for
• manufacturers to differentiate products and maintain sustainable
profit margins
• solar electricity to become cost competitive to coal and natural gas
x-Si bifacial modules have the potential to reach 30% efficiency at $0.36/W
manufacturing costs by 2030 enabling below $1/W system price at
sustainable margins (>=15%) for module manufacturers
With minor additions to the existing cell production lines a lot can be gained
by manufacturing bifacial modules relative to the incumbent one-sided x-Si
modules

15. Thank you
FatimaToor, Ph.D.
Research Analyst
+1 (617) 502-5318
fatima.toor@luxresearchinc.com