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Climate Change:
Implications for the South West
Sarah Hendel-Blackford
SWCCIP Manager & Coordinator
8 June 2006
• Observed climate change in the South West
• The regional response: SWCCIP work
• Future predictions and implications for the
South West
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research
Global warming over next 40 years does not depend on emissions
scenarios:
Annual-meantemperaturerise,degC
High emissions
Medium-high
Medium-low
Low emissions
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research
Regional Response:
SWCCIP’s mission is to investigate, inform and advise on the
impacts of climate change in SW England
• Established 2001: Chaired by Environment Agency and
Government Office South West, partnership between key
regional stakeholders
• Emphasis on Adaptation
• 2003: “Warming to the Idea”, SW Climate Change Impacts
Scoping Study
The SW climate change study set
out to:
- Describe climate change scenarios for
the SW
- Identify the likely impacts of such change
- Suggest actions needed to respond to
impacts.
www.oursouthwest.com/climate
SWCCIP sector group work
• Agriculture
• Biodiversity
• Housing and Construction
• Local Government
• Tourism
• Utilities
SW anticipated changes
Summary of anticipated changes likely to affect the south west
(2050s and 2080s):
Summer:
2050s: Warmer by 1.5 -3.5ºC, drier by 15 to 30%
2080s: Warmer by 2-5.5ºC, drier by 25 to 55%
Winter:
2050s: Milder by 1.0-2.0ºC, wetter by 10 to 30%
2080s: Milder by 1.5-3.5ºC, wetter by 5 to 15%, snowfall decrease by 70 to 90%
Source: WTI 2003 adapted from UKCIP02
“If you think you’re too small to make a difference, try going to
bed with a mosquito”
What you can do:
• Find out more: www.oursouthwest.com/climate
• Raise awareness and plan for future changes
• Case studies?
sarah.hendel-blackford@environment-agency.gov.uk
Conclusions:
• Climate change is a “now” issue
• (In)Action has long-term implications
• Climate change requires adaptation and mitigation

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2006 04 Regional Perspective - Sarah Hendell-Blackford, SW Climate Change Impacts Partnership

  • 1. Climate Change: Implications for the South West Sarah Hendel-Blackford SWCCIP Manager & Coordinator 8 June 2006
  • 2. • Observed climate change in the South West • The regional response: SWCCIP work • Future predictions and implications for the South West
  • 3. Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research
  • 4. Global warming over next 40 years does not depend on emissions scenarios: Annual-meantemperaturerise,degC High emissions Medium-high Medium-low Low emissions Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research
  • 5. Regional Response: SWCCIP’s mission is to investigate, inform and advise on the impacts of climate change in SW England • Established 2001: Chaired by Environment Agency and Government Office South West, partnership between key regional stakeholders • Emphasis on Adaptation • 2003: “Warming to the Idea”, SW Climate Change Impacts Scoping Study
  • 6. The SW climate change study set out to: - Describe climate change scenarios for the SW - Identify the likely impacts of such change - Suggest actions needed to respond to impacts. www.oursouthwest.com/climate
  • 7. SWCCIP sector group work • Agriculture • Biodiversity • Housing and Construction • Local Government • Tourism • Utilities
  • 8. SW anticipated changes Summary of anticipated changes likely to affect the south west (2050s and 2080s): Summer: 2050s: Warmer by 1.5 -3.5ºC, drier by 15 to 30% 2080s: Warmer by 2-5.5ºC, drier by 25 to 55% Winter: 2050s: Milder by 1.0-2.0ºC, wetter by 10 to 30% 2080s: Milder by 1.5-3.5ºC, wetter by 5 to 15%, snowfall decrease by 70 to 90% Source: WTI 2003 adapted from UKCIP02
  • 9. “If you think you’re too small to make a difference, try going to bed with a mosquito” What you can do: • Find out more: www.oursouthwest.com/climate • Raise awareness and plan for future changes • Case studies? sarah.hendel-blackford@environment-agency.gov.uk
  • 10. Conclusions: • Climate change is a “now” issue • (In)Action has long-term implications • Climate change requires adaptation and mitigation