This document summarizes the IMCORE project case study on climate change adaptation in the Severn Estuary. The project aims to enhance adaptation by improving the science base, exploring better integration of science and policy, increasing awareness of impacts and options, and developing guidelines. Key findings include sea levels projected to rise 30-40cm by 2080 with small increases in storm surge heights. There is uncertainty around future storminess and rainfall. Emerging policies show a focus on mitigation and flood risk, but coastal issues are less addressed. Top concerns for planners are development and flood risk. Upcoming workshops will explore adaptation scenarios.

1. Climate change futures on the
Severn Estuary:
the IMCORE project
Rhoda Ballinger, Cardiff University

2. IMCORE Project
“Innovative Management of Europe’s
Changing Coastal Resource”
Aims:
• To promote a transnational, innovative
& sustainable approach to reducing the
impacts of climate change on coastal
resources
• To develop adaptation strategies for
coastal sites across North West Europe
• To demonstrate the effectiveness of
various approaches to climate change
adaptation
www.imcore.eu
UKCIP’s Adaptation Wizard

3. The Severn Estuary Case Study
Main aim:
• To enhance the capacity for climate change
adaptation in the Severn Estuary

5. The Severn Estuary Case Study
Subsidiary aims:
• To enhance the science base on climate change
for planning of the Severn Estuary
• To explore mechanisms for enhancing science-
policy integration
• To increase awareness of climate change impacts
and adaptation options
• To create IMCORE guidelines for adaptation for
the Severn Estuary

6. Enhancing the science base

7. Enhancing the science base
• Severn Estuary Climate
Change Research Advisory
Group (SECCRAG)
• Development of citation
database & associated
research
• Support & contribution to
the State of the Estuary
Report

8. Trends – sea level
Chepstow
Medium Emissions Scenario
www.ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk
Whole estuary rise
30 – 40 cm by 2080

9. Trends - storminess
• Some evidence of more
storms over last 2 decades
BUT not above levels of the
1920s
• Little evidence of increase
in intensity or frequency of
storms over the UK in the
future
• Risk to estuary is from
higher sea levels plus an
intense storm event
Very small increase in storm surge
height (0.8mm/yr until 2050)
Medium Emissions Scenario
www.ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk

10. Trends – key message!
There is much uncertainty
in predicting future climate
• Global Climate Computer Models
are not 100% accurate
• Our knowledge of the climate is
incomplete
• Climate varies naturally
• Future greenhouse gas emissions
are difficult to predict

11. Exploring mechanisms for enhancing
science-policy integration

12. Exploring mechanisms for enhancing
science-policy integration
• evaluation of climate
change science within
planning & policy
documents
• survey with planning
community

13. Climate Change Policies & Measures
Several
developed
Climate
Change
Strategies
Majority
have
mitigation &
adaptation
measures
Different climate
change science
content in strategies

14. Increasing awareness of climate
change & adaptation options

15. Increasing awareness of climate
change & adaptation options
• RTPI conference (June
2010)
• Education pack &
schools’ workshops
Beacons YoCCo project
• Easy-to-read summaries
of Severn climate change
science
– Report cards
– Website

16. • Report cards:
– General climate change
implications
– Sea level, storminess, wave
climate & storm surges
– Rainfall events & projections

17. Developing guidelines for adaptation

18. Developing guidelines for adaptation
• Informed by:
– planning desk study & survey with
planning community
– Scenario workshops
– Delphi survey
• Informing an adaptable and sustainable
planning response for the Severn Estuary
in the context of coastal climate change
over the next 30 years
– Review of existing guidelines on climate
change, SMP and flood risk for local
authorities

19. Summary: Emerging Policy Trends
Going Up
• Strong emergence of
explicit climate change
policies within
emerging plans
• focus remains on
mitigation
• High numbers of flood
risk policies in both
adopted and emerging
plans
Going Down
• ‘Dropping off’ of coastal–
related policies within
emerging plans
• Few references to
Shoreline Management
Plans in existing plans
-none in emerging plans
• Few refs to Severn
Estuary Strategy in
existing plans & none in
emerging plans

20. Planners’ Critical Issues in addressing
climate change adaptation
12
6
3
2
1
1
1
1
Development & Flood Risk
Nature Conservation
Renewable Energy Generation
Building Design
Cross-Border Working
Sustainability of Coastal Towns
Transport
Archaeology
Development & Flood Risk
“…Number one is flooding…huge issue…”;
“…flooding is our big concern…”;
“…we have a small hamlet…really in
danger…”;
“…so much of our urban development is in
very vulnerable locations...”

21. Forthcoming events
• Severn Estuary Futures
Scenario Workshops
– Cardiff 15 October
– Bristol 18 October
• YoCCo Beacons workshop
with local schools
– 22 October (Barry)
• Severn Estuary Climate
Change Research Advisory
Group (SECCRAG)

22. Thank you
SEP IMCORE website:
http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/partnership/imcore.html
Beacons Young People’s Climate Change Forum
- The YoCCo Forum project:
http://www.severnestuary.net/yocco/index.html
Contact:
Dr Rhoda Ballinger BallingerRC@Cf.ac.uk