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Climate Change:
A National and Marine
Perspective
David Woolf
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton
Outline
• Global/Regional Warming and Sea Level Rise
– Temperature Change
– Sea level Change
• Changes in Weather Patterns
– Changes in Occurrence
– Changes in Wave Heights
• THC Collapse
– Ocean Circulation
– Temperature Change
– Sea Level Change
• Summary
Global Sea Level Rise
Changes in
Weather
Patterns
Our Variable Winters: The NAO
• Strong influence on European Climate
• Not necessarily connected with Global Change
• Definite influence on many surface parameters
Variability in Wintertime Wave Climate
• Variations in wave
height coherent over
large distances in
response to major
modes of atmospheric
variability
• North Atlantic
Oscillation, NAO
• East Atlantic Pattern,
EAP
NAO
EAP
Variability in Weather Patterns
• Future Climate
Changes can be
expressed as changes
in main patterns, e.g.
• North Atlantic
Oscillation, NAO
• East Atlantic Pattern,
EAP
• NAO predicted to go
positive
THC
Collapse?
Slowing of Atlantic conveyor:
~30%
0
5
10
15
20
25
Volume
transport
(Million cubic
metres per
second)
1957 1981 1992 1998 2004
Year
~30%
After Bryden et al (Nature, 2005)
Combined effect of Greenhouse
Gases and THC Collapse
Sea Level Rise with THC Collapse
Summary
• Global Warming is Real
• But the detail is uncertain. Expect the
Unexpected
• Probable outcomes include sea level
rise and an increase in storminess.
Thus affecting
Coastal Defences
Offshore Engineering
Renewable Energy

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2006 03 National Predictions - David Woolf, National Oceanographic Centre

  • 1. Climate Change: A National and Marine Perspective David Woolf National Oceanography Centre, Southampton
  • 2. Outline • Global/Regional Warming and Sea Level Rise – Temperature Change – Sea level Change • Changes in Weather Patterns – Changes in Occurrence – Changes in Wave Heights • THC Collapse – Ocean Circulation – Temperature Change – Sea Level Change • Summary
  • 3.
  • 6. Our Variable Winters: The NAO • Strong influence on European Climate • Not necessarily connected with Global Change • Definite influence on many surface parameters
  • 7. Variability in Wintertime Wave Climate • Variations in wave height coherent over large distances in response to major modes of atmospheric variability • North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO • East Atlantic Pattern, EAP NAO EAP
  • 8. Variability in Weather Patterns • Future Climate Changes can be expressed as changes in main patterns, e.g. • North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO • East Atlantic Pattern, EAP • NAO predicted to go positive
  • 10. Slowing of Atlantic conveyor: ~30% 0 5 10 15 20 25 Volume transport (Million cubic metres per second) 1957 1981 1992 1998 2004 Year ~30% After Bryden et al (Nature, 2005)
  • 11. Combined effect of Greenhouse Gases and THC Collapse
  • 12. Sea Level Rise with THC Collapse
  • 13. Summary • Global Warming is Real • But the detail is uncertain. Expect the Unexpected • Probable outcomes include sea level rise and an increase in storminess. Thus affecting Coastal Defences Offshore Engineering Renewable Energy