This workshop took place in January 2019 in Dublin, Ireland. It was organised by the Department of Culture, Heritage and the Gaeltacht in conjunction with Carrig, the Irish Green Building Council and Lincoln University. The objective of the workshop was to discuss the potential impacts of climate change on Ireland’s built and archaeological heritage, and prioritise the short- and long-term adaptation actions needed. Speakers: - Peter Cox, Carrig Conservation - Michael MacDonagh, Chief Archaeologist, Department of Culture, Heritage and the Gaeltacht - Sean O’Leary, DCCAE - Dr Stephen Flood, UCC - Paul Nolan, ICHEC - Dr Cathy Daly, University of Lincoln

1. Stakeholder Workshop 2
Wednesday, 23 January 2019
Dublin
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGY
FOR BUILT AND ARCHAEOLOGICAL HERITAGE

2. The Team
•Peter Cox, Managing Director of Carrig and Intellectual Oversight and
Team Lead of Project
•Dr Caroline Engel Purcell, Head of Research at Carrig and Project
Coordinator / Built Heritage Researcher
•Clara Chan, Case Study Researcher & Graphic Design
Carrig Conservation (Project Lead)
•Dr Cathy Daly, Senior Lecturer in Conservation and Lead
Project Researcher
University of Lincoln (Research Partner)
•Marion Jammet & Pat Barry, Stakeholder and Public Consultation
Coordination & Facilitation
Irish Green Building Council (Coordination Partner)
•Faith Wilson (Ecologist), Impact Screening Reports for SEA and AA
•Margaret Gowen (Archaeologist), Consult on the Priority Impact
Assessment and Draft Adaptation Sectoral Plan
Additional Expertise

3. Running Order
◦ 13.30 Registration & Networking
◦ 13.55 Welcome
Peter Cox, Carrig Conservation
◦ 14.00 Introduction
Michael MacDonagh, DCHG
◦ 14.05 National Adaptation Framework
Seán O’Leary, DCCAE
◦ 14.20 Sectoral Adaptation Guidelines
Dr Stephen Flood, UCC
◦ 14.35 Ireland’s Changing Climate –
What can we expect?
Paul Nolan, ICHEC
◦ 14.50 Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation
Plan for Built & Archaeological Heritage –
Progress to date
Dr Cathy Daly, University of Lincoln
◦ 15.05 Q&As
◦ 15.15 Group Discussions
◦ 16.45 Group Feedback & Closing
Peter Cox, Carrig Conservation

4. Planning for a Climate Resilient Ireland
Climate Adaptation and the National Adaptation
Framework
Seán O’Leary
Climate Adaptation, Soils, GMOs and Chemicals Division, DCCAE

5. 5 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
Agenda
• Climate Change Adaptation and Climate Policy
• National Adaptation Framework
o Sectoral Adaptation Plans
o Adaptation Planning Resources
o Local Authority Adaptation
• National Adaptation Framework Governance

6. 6 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
IPCC 1.5⁰C Report
• Global mean temperature currently 1⁰C above pre-industrial
levels and rising 0.2⁰C per decade; will exceed 1.5⁰C by
around 2040
• Many impacts of climate change are ‘locked-in’ for decades
to come
• 2ºC global warming, compared to 1.5ºC global warming, will
produce more intense, and more frequent, extreme events
and higher risks than previously thought for the global
economy and global biodiversity

7. 7 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
IPCC 1.5⁰C Report

8. 8 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
Climate Change Adaptation
• In addition to efforts to reduce the rate and intensity of
climate change (mitigation), planned process of adjustment
to climate change and its effects (adaptation) is required
• The aim of adaptation is to reduce the vulnerability of our
environment, society and economy and increase resilience
• Brings opportunity through green growth, innovation, jobs
and ecosystem enhancement as well as improvements in
areas such as water and air quality

9. 9 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
Climate Policy
Sectoral Adaptation Plans
and Local Adaptation
Strategies
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
April 2014: Ireland’s
National Policy Position on
Climate Action and Low
Carbon Development
Climate Action
and Low Carbon Development
Act, 2015
2019
Annual Transition
Statement
2017
July 2017: February 2018: April 2018:
January 2018: September 2019

10. 10 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
Climate Change Impacts
Source: Page 33 National Adaptation Framework
Source: Page 29 National Adaptation Framework

11. 11 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
National Adaptation Framework
• Context is 2014 National Policy
Position and Climate Action and
Low Carbon Development Act
2015
• Approved by Government in
December 2017 and published
in January 2018
• Builds on non-statutory 2012
National Climate Change
Adaptation Framework

12. 12 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
NAF Overview
• Assess the key risks and vulnerabilities of climate change -
local authorities/regions/key sectors
• Implement climate resilience actions
• Ensure climate adaptation considerations are mainstreamed
into all local, regional and national policy making

13. 13 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
NAF Overview
• Under the Framework, seven Government Departments (or Agencies, where
appropriate) with responsibility for twelve priority sectors are required to
prepare sectoral adaptation plans
• Sectoral plans to be submitted to Government for approval by 30 September
2019 (Government Decision)
• Sectoral adaptation plans are to be prepared in line with the Climate Act,
NAF and “Sectoral Planning Guidelines for Climate Change Adaptation”
published in 2018
• Local Authorities to prepare Local Adaptation Strategies by same date
• Local adaptation strategies will also be prepared in line with the Act, NAF and
published “Local Authority Adaptation Strategy Development Guidelines”

14. 14 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
Sectors
Minister of the Government to submit a Sectoral Adaptation Plans to
Government by 30 September 2019
Seafood
Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine
Agriculture
Forestry
Biodiversity
Minister for Culture, Heritage and the Gaeltacht
Built and Archaeological Heritage
Transport infrastructure Minister for Transport, Tourism and Sport
Electricity and Gas Networks
Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment
Communications Networks
Flood Risk Management Minister of State at the Office of Public Works
Water Quality
Minister Housing, Planning and Local Government
Water Services Infrastructure
Health Minister for Health

15. 15 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
Sectoral Plans
Completed plans could include actions that:
• Mainstream adaptation into sectoral plans and policies
• Identify and understand the key vulnerabilities, risks and opportunities facing their sectors
• Ensure that plans related to emergencies assigned to a sectoral department as lead
Government department under the Strategic Emergency Planning Guidelines are climate
proofed
• Identify and collect information on the costs and benefits of adaptation within their sectors
• Build capacity within their sectors to cope with climate change
• Identify and address key research gaps within their sectors
• Improve coordination with the local government sector
• Develop appropriate monitoring and verification systems within their sectors

16. 16 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
Local Authorities
• Key player – implementation
• Workshops/Seminars –
2014/2015/2016
• Regional Approach – 4 Climate
Action Regional Offices
• Funding secured - €10m over 5
years

17. 17 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
Local Authorities - CAROs

18. Atlantic
Seaboard North
Mayo County
Council
Dublin Metropolitan
Dublin City Council
Atlantic
Seaboard South
Cork County
Council
Eastern & Midlands
Kildare County Council
Local Authorities - CAROs

19. 19 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
Sectoral and Local Authority
Guidelines
• Sectoral Planning Guidelines for Climate Change
Adaptation were published in May 2018
• Local Authority Adaptation Strategy Development
Guidelines published in December 2018
• Prepared with Climate Ireland
• Aim to ensure coherent and consistent approach
to adaptation planning is adopted at national and
local levels and draw on existing sources of
climate and adaptation information
• Supported by online tools hosted on
www.climateireland.ie

20. 20 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
Governance and Implementation
• Framework includes 12
Key Actions and a
number of Supporting
Objectives
• Revised National
Adaptation Steering
Committee overseen by
High Level Climate
Action Steering Group

21. 21 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
Next Steps/Challenges
• Mainstream adaptation into sectoral plans and policies
• Identify and understand key vulnerabilities, risks and opportunities
• Identify and collect information on the costs and benefits of
adaptation
• Build capacity within sectors to cope with climate change
• Improve coordination across sectors (i.e. Local Government/Central
Government)
• Effective short and long term response across whole of government
• Develop appropriate monitoring and verification systems
• Identify and address key research gaps

22. 22 An Roinn Cumarsáide, Gníomhaithe ar son na hAeráide & Comhshaoil | Department of Communications, Climate Action & Environment
Conclusion
• 12 Sectoral Adaptation Plans to be prepared by 30
September 2019
• Resources – Climate Ireland, Adaptation Planning
Guidelines
• 4 Climate Action Regional Offices established supporting
preparation of Local Adaptation Strategies and engagement
with sectors

23. Thank You
NationalAdaptationFramework@dccae.gov.ie

24. SECTORAL
ADAPTATION
GUIDELINES:
AN OVERVIEW
Stephen Flood, Barry
O’Dwyer, Paul Alexander &
Jeremy Gault.
MaREI Centre, ERI,
University College Cork, Ireland.
Climate Change Adaptation Sectoral Plan for Built
and Archaeological Heritage – Workshop 1. January
1st, 2019: Ballinasloe Library, Ballinasloe.

25. Funded by:
2011
2013
Phase 1
System Design
Phase 2
Local Authorities
Phase 3
Sectoral
2015
Supporting
National,
Sectoral and
Local Level
Adaptation
Planning
Climate Ireland
Operational
2017/2018
Delivered by:
INTRODUCTION: CLIMATE IRELAND

26. IRELAND’S ONLINE SOURCE OF CLIMATE & ADAPTATION
INFORMATION (HTTP://WWW.CLIMATEIRELAND.IE)
DEVELOPING CAPACITY &
SUPPORTING PLANNING
INTRODUCTION: CLIMATE IRELAND

27. INTRODUCTION: SECTORAL ADAPTATION
PLANNING GUIDELINES
• Iterative and 6 Step
Adaptive Management
Framework;
• Flexible (e.g. Qualitative
and Quantitative
Information).
• Supported by Climate
Ireland’s Sectoral
Adaptation Tool (beta).

28. SECTORAL PLANNING FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATION
As a minimum, these plans will present evidence of a clear understanding
and description of the risks presented by climate change to the sector,
their vulnerability to such risks and actions both to address the risks and
ensure the climate resilience of the sectors (NAF, 2018).
• Team Building
• Capacity Building
• Sectoral Analysis
• Vulnerability Assessment
• Current
• Future
• Sectoral Impact
• Prioritise
• Case Study Development
• Identifying, Assessing &
Appraising Options
• Prioritisation and Selection
• Implementation Planning
• Documentation
• Planning : Monitoring &
Assessment

29. PREPARING THE GROUND
Team Building:
The Adaptation Team should consist of both a Core and Planning Team.
Capacity Building:
Develop shared understanding of climate change, adaptation and
planning.
Engagement, Collaboration and Analysis:
Identify and engage with stakeholders, communicate the process,
goals and parameters
`
`
`

30. BENEFITS OF STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
• Developing a better understanding of current and
future impacts, vulnerabilities and risk (Step 2, 3 & 4);
• Identification of potential synergies and conflicts
associated with proposed adaptation measures
(Step 5);
• Securing buy-in for the adaptation plan, including in
implementation, monitoring and evaluation;
• Develop an informed stakeholder community to
support subsequent iterations of the planning
process.

31. STAGED APPROACH TO CLIMATE IMPACT
ASSESSMENT

32. STAGED APPROACH TO CLIMATE IMPACT
ASSESSMENT
1. Climate Impact Screening:
- Broad understanding of sectoral
vulnerability to ongoing and
potential future climate impacts;
- Collect all relevant preliminary
information to allow for
prioritisation.
2. Prioritisation:
- According to level of
impact/vulnerability, sectoral
aims and objectives.
2. Priority Impact Assessment:
- Develop a more detailed
understanding of climate impacts
and vulnerabilities considered a
sectoral priority.
Adopts a Vulnerability Based Approach
to hazards which is flexible in terms of
available data sets.

33. 1. High Level/National
Messages
2. Prioritisation
3. Regional & Local Climate Information
Employing Climate
Information for
Adaptation – A
Tiered Approach
1. Climate Impact Screening
Aim: Develop wide-ranging understanding
Current
Potential Future
2. Prioritisation (Objectives)
Aim: Make it relevant/Contextualise
Current
Potential Future
3. Priority Impact Assessment
Aim: Detailed Understanding
Current Potential Future

34. CLIMATE IMPACT SCREENING: VULNERABILITY
Scoping for impacts and
sensitivities:
Exposure (Where?):
• Specific
• Location/Area,
• Regional
• National
Sensitivity (What/who?):
• Customers (Young;
Old)
• Infrastructure
• Service Delivery
• Legislative/Policy
Adaptive Capacity
(Ability to offset adverse
Impacts)
• Flood prevention
• Planning
• Emergency Response

35. Projected changes in levels of precipitation for
the period 2041-2060 , compared with the
period 1981-2000 (adapted from Nolan, 2015)
CLIMATE IMPACT SCREENING:
FUTURE VULNERABILITY

36. ASSESSING PRIORITY CLIMATE IMPACTS
• Develop a more detailed
understanding through case
studies of priority climate impacts;
• Provide information on existing
vulnerability (including
information on any thresholds);
• Provide an assessment of
potential future impacts based
on spatial & temporal variations in
projected changes in key climate
parameters and impacts (where
available);
• Include information on projected
changes in sensitivities and
sectoral aims aims and
objectives;
• Highlight data deficits/gaps.
Between 1990 and 2030 €3.5billion
will be invested in afforestation.

37. DEVELOP YOUR PLAN
Type of Action: Action:
Capacity Building • Vulnerability Assessment;
• Identify and address key research gaps within their sectors;
• Improve co-ordination with the local government sector.
Business Case
Development
• Cost-benefit analysis;
• Monitoring and Systems.
Understanding/
Awareness
• Communication;
• Public engagement.
Mainstreaming/
Climate Proofing
• Include climate considerations in all policy and plans;
• Emergency Plans.
• Establish goals, sequence objectives;
• Identify and prioritise adaptation options (Build Capacity
and Deliver Adaptation Action);
• Implementation plan and documentation (Barriers and
enablers).

39. http://www.climateireland.ie
stephen.flood@ucc.ie
@ClimateIreland
Thank you for your attention

40. Ireland’s changing
climate – what can
we expect?
Paul Nolan
Alastair McKinstry
paul.nolan@ichec.ie

41. • Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC)
• Met Éireann
• Research Funded by the DCCAE & EPA
• Main area of research is Simulating Future Climate Change
Presentation Outline:
• Global Climate Projections
• Regional Climate Projections for Ireland
Overview

42. Global Climate Modelling (EC-Earth)
• The impact of increasing greenhouse gases on future climate change can be
simulated using Global Climate Models (Earth System Models)
• EC-Earth is one such Earth
System model
– European Consortium,
29 partners.
– One of over 25 “IPCC-
class” climate models.
• Irish Centre for High-End
Computing (ICHEC) & Met
Éireann are partnered in
developing and running the
model.
• Results contributed towards the CMIP5 project and the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5)
• Currently working on CMIP6 simulations and Ireland’s contribution to IPCC AR6
Report .

43. Annual
Temperature
Change as simulated
by the EC-Earth
simulations.
Annual mean
Temperature minus
1961-1990 mean

44. Annual Rainfall
Change (%) as
simulated by the
EC-Earth
simulations.
Annual change
calculated w.r.t.
1961-1990 mean

45. Downscaling the EC-Earth Data
• The spatial resolution of the global models are constrained by
computational resources. It is not possible to assess the impacts of
climate change at a regional level.
Global Model
to Regional Model
• We used Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to dynamically downscale
the coarse information from the global models.

46. Downscaling
Improvements

47. 2. Regional Climate Model Validations
Observations WRF-ERAInterim 18km

48. Observations WRF-ERAInterim 6km
2. Regional Climate Model Validations

49. 2. Regional Climate Model Validations
Observations WRF-ERAInterim 2km

50. RCM Projections For Ireland
• The future climate of Ireland was simulated at high spatial
resolution for the 40-year period 2021-2060
• For reference, the past climate was simulated for the period
1961-2005
• Difference between the two periods provide a measure of
climate change

51. RCM Projections for Ireland
- the Ensemble Method (Uncertainty)
• Climate change projections are subject to uncertainty, which
limits the value of individual projections.
• To address this issue of uncertainty, an ensemble of Regional
Climate Models (RCMs) was run.
• Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the
projections can be quantified, proving a measure of
confidence in the predictions.

52. RCM Projections for Ireland
- the Ensemble Method (Uncertainty)
90th Percentile: “Very Likely” 66th Percentile: “Likely”

53. RCM Projections for Ireland
- the Ensemble Method
Global Climate Models Regional Climate Models

54. RCM Projections for Ireland
- the Ensemble Method
EC-Earth (3)
HadGEM2-ES
ECHAM5 (4)
CGCM3.1
MIROC5
MPI-ESM-LR
CNRM-CM5
CLM3
COSMO-CLM4
COSMO-CLM5
WRF
Global Climate Models Regional Climate Models

55. RCM Projections for Ireland
- the Ensemble Method
Global Climate Models Regional Climate Models
Future Climate
Emission Scenarios
B1, A1B, A2,
RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5
EC-Earth (3)
HadGEM2-ES
ECHAM5 (4)
CGCM3.1
MIROC5
MPI-ESM-LR
CNRM-CM5
CLM3
COSMO-CLM4
COSMO-CLM5
WRF

56. RCM Projections For Ireland
• Running such a large ensemble was a substantial computational
task and required extensive use of the ICHEC & ECMWF
supercomputer systems over 3 to 4 years.
• The RCP4.5 and the B1 scenario simulations were used to create a
medium-low emission ensemble while the RCP8.5, A1B and A2
simulations were used to create a high emission ensemble.

57. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections
Mean Annual 2m Temperature Change

58. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections
Summer Day-time Temperature Change

59. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections
Number of “Heat Waves” over 20-year period

60. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections
Winter Night-time Temperature Change

61. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections
Frost Days (T2M min < 0℃)

62. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections
Annual Length of the Growing Season

63. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections
Annual Precipitation Change (%)

64. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections
Summer Precipitation Change (%)

65. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections
Projected Change in Heavy Rainfall Events (%)

66. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections

67. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections

68. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections

70. Extreme Storm Track Projections
(Small Increase Over Ireland by Mid-Century)
1976-2005 Mid-century RCP8.5

71. Key Findings/Projection Areas for consideration and further investigation
Mean temperature
increase of 1-
1.6℃. 𝐋𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭 increase in
the east
Ability to predict change at a regional level allows for a more
precise and targeted (geographically) strategy for adaptation
Summer day temperatures
increase of over 2℃
Effect on likelihood and severity of heat waves (public health
impact)
Frost nights decease of
~50%
Impact on agriculture, pest control and plant growth
Growing season increase of
over 35 days/year
Open opportunity to grow new types of crops (agricultural
planning)
Large projected drying
during summer
More frequent and severe droughts - implication re. water
resource management and agriculture
Increase heavy rainfall
events during autumn &
winter
Increased likelihood and severity of flooding - need to improve
reliability of regional forecast for flood management
Wind energy decrease for
all seasons (except winter)
Wind energy likely to decrease, may require re-thinking of
strategy re. diversification of renewable courses (solar and wind)
across the year

72. “Ensemble of regional climate model
projections for Ireland”
http://www.epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/clim
ate/research159ensembleofregionalclimatemo
delprojectionsforireland.html
• Results have contributed towards
numerous governmental climate
change reports
• An updated report is currently under
preparation.
• Future time period extended to
1975-2100.
• Future climate simulated under all
4 RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 & 8.5)
Thank you

73. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections
Annual Wind Energy Projected Change (%)

74. Mid-Century (2041-2060) Projections
Summer Wind Energy Projected Change (%)

76. The Albedo “Positive” Feedback

77. EC-EARTH Sea Surface Temperature & Sea Ice Projections

78. STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOPS
BALLINASLOE & DUBLIN
22-23 JANUARY 2019
Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for
Built and Archaeological Heritage
Cathy Daly University of Lincoln

79. The Approach
Department of Communications, Climate Action &
Environment
Sectoral Planning Guidelines for Climate Change
Adaptation (May 2018)
6 Step Process
Preparing
the Ground
Climate
Impact
Screening
Setting
Priorities
Priority
Impact
Assessment
Develop
the Plan
Implement,
Evaluate &
Review

80. Progress so far
1. Preparing the
Ground
Schedule of meetings,
consultations and works to
ensure the development of an
effective adaptation plan
Establish Core Team.
Confirm stakeholder groups.
Prepare for stakeholder
consultation.
2. Climate
Impact
Screening
Overview of sectoral
vulnerability to projected
climate change
Climate Impact Chain (based
on background report and
additional information).
3. Prioritisation Identify key priorities for
adaptation in the sector
Highlight the climatic changes
and impacts that will have the
greatest sectoral
consequences
Prepare for and hold 2
stakeholder meetings in Dublin &
Galway.
Use screening in Step 2 and
stakeholder feedback to rank
priorities.

81. Next phase
4. Priority Impact
Assessment
Case study illustration of priority
impacts & a more detailed
understanding of vulnerabilities
for different scenarios
(4-5 based in Ireland)
Gather and develop case
studies based on Steps 2 & 3,
stakeholder input, research and
GIS data sources.
Develop instructional diagrams.
5. Develop the
Plan
Identification of adaptation
goals, sequencing of
objectives and actions to
implement the plan
Develop sectoral plan based on
the Background Study, Steps 2-4
and a review of adaptation
plans from other sectors and EU
countries.
Consult stakeholders via email
on the proposed goals,
objectives and actions.
6. Evaluate,
Revise &
Disseminate
Final draft plan released for
public consultation and impact
screening reports written for the
SEA and AA
Disseminate, track & evaluate
progress of the plan
Host a public and stakeholder
consultation on the draft plan,
summarise feedback and revise
the plan based on the
feedback.
Draft impact screening reports
for SEA and AA.

82. Draft Adaptation Plan Outline
1. Introduction: Scope & Focus; Process & Methodology - Cathy
2. Co-Benefits – Cathy/Caroline
3. Strategic Environmental Assessment and Appropriate Assessment - Faith
4. Climatic Trends in Ireland – Cathy
5. Built and Archaeological Heritage Sector Profile – Caroline
6. Vulnerability of Ireland’s Built and Archaeological Heritage to Climate Change - Cathy
7. Case Study Impacts Assessment - Clara
8. Cross Sectoral Issues - Cathy
9. Current Planning & Management Measures – Peter
10. Adaptation Goals & Objectives – Cathy
11. Adaptation Action Plan - Cathy
12. Monitoring & Review – Cathy/Dept

83. Impacts of Climate Change for Ireland’s
built and archaeological heritage
Direct
1. Catastrophic (sudden)
2. Cumulative (slow onset)
Indirect
1. Mitigation
2. Adaptation
Latin Quarter area of Galway, 2013

84. Climate Stimuli Impact
Sectoral Consequences
Built Heritage (including landscapes)
Sectoral Consequences
Archaeology
Higher temperatures
 Hotter summers
 Warmer winters
 Prolonged dry periods
 Longer growing season
 Accelerated micro-biological activity
 Altered rate of chemical reactions
 Ocean acidification
DIRECT
Challenges:
 Increased biological growth &/or changes in species (pests & mould)
 Increased urban pollution effects, chemical processes of deterioration (summer)
 Increased thermal weathering
 Increased risk of fires
 Loss/gain plant species
Opportunities
 Reduction in freeze thaw weathering
Challenges:
 Accelerated deterioration
 Desiccation of organics
 Change in vegetation cover
 Deterioration of peatlands
 Increased risk of fires
Opportunities
 Discovery of sites (crop marks)
INDIRECT
Challenges:
 Maladaptation of occupied buildings
 Changing land use (agriculture & renewables)
Opportunities:
 Increased recreational use
Challenges:
 Changing land use (agriculture & renewables)
Opportunities:
 Increased recreational use
Extreme precipitation
&
storms
 Flooding
 Increased water flow
 Altered water table
 Change in humidity cycles
 Increase in penetration of water and
time of wetness
 Changes in soil chemistry
 Deterioration of water quality
DIRECT
Challenges:
 Salt weathering
 Microbiological growth
 Rising damp
 Subsidence / landslip
 Changes in surface deposition & washing of pollutants
 Soiling
 Surface erosion & abrasion
 Physical damage, loss & collapse
 Tree throw
Challenges:
 Landslide
 Erosion
 Silting
 Pollution/contamination
 Rock fall
 Tree throw
 Altered preservation conditions
 Collapse/subsidence
Opportunities:
 Discovery through erosion
INDIRECT
Challenges:
 Damaging flood defences
Challenges:
 Damaging flood and drainage works
Climate Stimuli Impact
Sectoral Consequences
Built Heritage (including landscapes)
Sectoral Consequences
Archaeology
Sea level rise
&
storm surge
 Coastal erosion
 Coastal flooding
 Increased wave heights
 Saline intrusion
 Wind transported salts
 Wind driven sand
DIRECT
Challenges:
 Mechanical erosion
 Salt weathering
 Sand blasting
 Erosion of foundations
 Physical damage, loss & collapse
 Rising damp accompanied by salts
Challenges
 Saline intrusion (soils and water table)
 Altered preservation conditions
 Erosion & exposure (sand dunes, underwater and intertidal)
 Submersion (marine, intertidal)
 Sedimentation (intertidal, marine)
Opportunities
 Discovery of sites
INDIRECT
Challenges:
 Maladaptation (damaging coastal defences)
 Reputational loss (where losses are severe and public confidence in heritage sector is
reduced)
Challenges:
 Maladaptation (damaging coastal defenses)
 Reputational loss (where losses are severe and public confidence
in the heritage sector is reduced)

85. Coastal Heritage
…includes land based sites, intertidal sites and underwater or submerged sites
Direct impacts include sea level rise (SLR), storm events and greater wave energy leading
to flooding, saline intrusion, coastal erosion and coastal squeeze
Maladaptation - Possible conflicting
demands for protection of coastal assets
Tidal influences – liable to be felt at
higher reaches of river systems, cause
flooding and rising ground water/saline
intrusion in previously immune areas
(including many historic urban centres)
https://youtu.be/IHAPJUQGwjg
Underwater archaeology – erosion,
accessibility and changing preservation
conditions
http://www.engineersjournal.ie/2017/06/06/coastal-erosion-in-ireland-a-
perspective-on-past-present-and-future-management/

86. Dunbeg Fort , Co. Kerry

87. Archaeology
…buried archaeological evidence survives due to the maintenance of conditions that inhibit
deterioration
◦ Drier summers – desiccation (organics) / oxygenation of soil (metal corrosion)
- increased incidence of fires (loss, soil erosion, sub-surface conditions)
◦ Changes in land use practices – loss of field systems, increased plough damage, faster moving
floods
◦ Dry periods followed by heavy rainfall – landslides, subsidence, bog-bursts
◦ Increasingly wet winters - damage from livestock and machinery on agricultural land
◦ Storms and high winds - tree throw, erosion (light / sandy soils, near-surface remains)
◦ Rising soil temperatures - microbiological / chemical processes
◦ Changes in water quality (saline intrusion, heavy rain) – microbiological / chemical processes
The discovery of new sites due to erosion is likely to accelerate with climate change offering
both an opportunity and a challenge to archaeologists

88. Potential Benefits / challenges - Discovery and or exposure of buried archaeological sites

89. Built heritage*
◦ Increased wind driven rain – abrasion and dissolution rates, water
penetration
◦ Altered moisture content of soils - weakened foundations, subsidence,
erosion, landslide
◦ Flooding - erode foundations, damage structural fabric
- post flood drying out - biological action, distortion and salt
damage
- post flood renovation – potential for further loss of historic fabric
◦ Storms – Structural damage
◦ Humidity – salt cycles
◦ Higher temperatures - chemical degradation reactions, Invasive pests &
spread and increase of native pests, increase in mould growth (warmer
wetter winters)
◦ Insensitive retrofitting /adaptation
*includes exposed structures or built features e.g. landscape elements and ruins as well as occupied buildings

90. Soil movement and rockfall at Skellig
Michael, 2015-2017 (OPW)
Water ingress into dining room fireplace
due to heavy rain, Ormond Castle, Co
Waterford (Daly 2014)

91. Mitigation – poorly executed deep retrofit of Victorian homes in Preston, 2013
https://passivehouseplus.ie/news/health/disastrous-preston-retrofit-scheme-remains-unresolved

92. National strategy supported by scientific research leading to local actions
ACTIONS
Stakeholder focussed
Win whatever
Informed & supported
Learning from experience
SCIENCE
Monitoring
Research
Communication
POLICY
Flexible
Anticipatory
Cross cutting
Leadership
Developing the adaptation plan requires…
1. establishing goals,
2. sequencing objectives
3. identifying and prioritising actions that can help in achieving these
…focus on actions that are ‘low regret’ and engage in a flexible
adaptation process kept under regular review

93. Maintenance Repair Proactive
conservation
Modification External
protection
Relocation
or removal
Managed loss
Level of interventionLOW HIGH
Impact on authenticityLESS MORE
Conceptual relationship between different levels of adaptive intervention and
the authenticity of heritage resources
(Graphic by Chan, C. 2018. Adapted from Historic Environment Group, 2018, p11, figure 3)
Adaptation Actions are generally classified as Grey, Green or Soft

94. Peter@carrig.ie
Caroline@carrig.ie
Cdaly@lincoln.ac.uk
clara@carrig.ie
Image from inc.com
NOW…..WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU

95. GROUP DISCUSSION

96. Question 1
Have you noticed any impacts on built and/or
archaeological heritage in your area which you
believe may be due to climate change?
Be as specific as possible

97. Question 2
In relation to the built and archaeological
heritage, which climate change impacts are
you most concerned about?

98. Question 3
Have you been involved in any actions and/or
plans intended to address climate change
impacts on built and archaeological heritage?
If so, what would be required to make that
process easier/more successful?

99. Open for submissions from 1 May – 1 June 2019
Presentation of the Draft Adaptation Plan & Public Discussion
Thursday, 16 May 2019 (tbc)
Custom House, Dublin
Further detailsto beannouncedinearlyMay through theDCHG website
Public Consultation