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Julian R - Vulnerability analyses progress CIAT April 2012


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Presentation made to the Crop Wild Relative project colleagues, in the progress meeting held at CIAT in early April 2012

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Julian R - Vulnerability analyses progress CIAT April 2012

  1. 1. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
  2. 2. Wheeler 2012. NCC.
  3. 3. The approach
  4. 4. Modelling changes in crop suitability • EcoCrop: how does it work?It evaluates on monthly basis if thereare adequate climatic conditionswithin a growing season for …and calculates the climatic suitability of thetemperature and precipitation… resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
  5. 5. Input dataModel training• Present-day climates from WorldClim• Crop distribution data (GBIF, other sources)• An idea of the crop’s ecology, its distribution, and growing season duration• Some literature reviewModel projection• 24 different climate models (2030, SRES-A1B), to sample uncertaintiesAdaptation strategy testing• Genetic adaptation by broadening ecological ranges
  6. 6. Preliminary analyses (~2009)Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
  7. 7. Sorghum
  8. 8. Cassava
  9. 9. New analyses: 26 crops + maize
  10. 10. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
  11. 11. Potato Current SuitabilityKiling temperature (°C) -0.80 Growing season (days) 120Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00 Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50
  12. 12. Potato Current Suitability and Presence
  13. 13. Potato Current Climatic Constraints
  14. 14. Potato Future Suitability and Change 2030s SRES-A1B 2030s SRES-A1B
  15. 15. Potato Breeding PrioritiesWater availability Temperatures
  16. 16. Regional impacts
  17. 17. Suitability changesCrop Comparison
  18. 18. Suitability changesCrop Comparison in Africa
  19. 19. Suitability changesCrop Comparison in Latin America & Caraïbes
  20. 20.