Dr. Ana María Loboguerrero
Head of Global Policy Research
Transforming Food Systems
under a Changing Climate

HELPING SET GLOBAL AGENDAS

VISION FOR TRANSFORMED FOOD SYSTEMS
We envision a world in
which all people,
including future
generations, are well-
nourished and food
secure, achieved
through transformed
food systems that are
sustainably managing
current and future
stresses, climatic and
non-climatic
Capacities
Empowerment
climate-related hazards
and natural disasters
Emissions reductions and
capturing of GHG,
sustainable land-use and
the protection of
ecosystems
&
To
+

http://bit.ly/AgTransform

CCAFS DonorsSIX KEY ELEMENTS FOR TRANSFORMING FOOD
SYSTEMS UNDER A CHANGING CLIMATE
Gender equality,
capacity and enabling
policy
and institutions
Actions to enhance gender
and social equality
Incentives, policies and
institutions to catalyze actions
Enhancing capacity for
implementation
Digitally
enabled
climate-
informed
services
Big data and ICT
Applications
Two-way extension
Early response
systems
Adaptive safety nets
Climate-
resilient and
low-emission
practices and
technologies
Effective research and
Innovating systems
Scaling up best practice
Innovative
finance to
leverage public &
private sector
investments
De-risking private finance
Insurance incentivizing
technology uptake
Reshaping
supply chains,
food retail,
marketing and
procurement
New models of
business to-
business
coordination
New diets and
consumer choices
Managing food
loss and waste
Strong farmer
and consumer
organizations
and
networking
Empowering farmers
and consumers Promoting local action
Transformation
elements
Cross-cutting
element
Actions
Key:
ABC

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5. Smarter consumption
patterns
1. Next generation technologies
to drive transformation
2. Differentiated adaptation and
development pathways
3. Policy enabling
environments that facilitate the
transition
4. Aligning finance to drive
the transformation
CCAFS DonorsBUSINESS UNUSUAL: DRIVING INNOVATION TO
ACHIEVE TRANSFORMATION AT SCALE
Alberto Millan
CCAFS
Sonja Vermuelen WWF
Phillip Thornton CCAFS
Lindsay Stringer
University of Leeds
Tonya Rawe
CARE

CCAFS Donors1. BLUE-SKY TECHNOLOGIES
Technological change can
generate:
1. Very rapid sea changes
in social and cultural
systems
2. Transformation in
agriculture and food
systems
Current agricultural
technology options will not
be able to feed 9 billion
people and reach the
sustainable development
goals simultaneously
Some
examples
Robotics in
agriculture
Artificial
Products
Robotics in
agriculture
Drones
Artificial
intelligence
Biofortified
crops
Genetic
modification
assisted
domestication of
new crops
Vertical
agriculture
Biologicals
replacing artificial
inputs
Molecular
printing


CCAFS Donors1. BLUE-SKY TECHNOLOGIES
Impact
on
SDGs
Artificial
Products
Robotics in
agriculture
Drones
Artificial
intelligence
Biofortified
crops
Genetic
modification
assisted
domestication of
new crops
Vertical
agriculture
Biologicals
replacing artificial
inputs
Molecular
printing
Others…
IMPLEMENTATION

CCAFS Donors2. ADAPTATION AND DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS
FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF FARMERS
Market-oriented producers
Subsistence-oriented producers
Global integration
Environmentalawareness
1
3
2
4
4 WEF basic future Scenarios
Adaptation and
Development
pathways
More resilient and
adaptable to climate
change AND contribute
fewer greenhouse gas
emissions
2 transformation pathways for different farmers:

CCAFS Donors2. ADAPTATION AND DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS
FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF FARMERS
Are
these
pathways
truly
transformative?
Challenging the
status quo in the
system
Implications
for fairness across
the food system
Implications
for other systems
and the SDGs
Implications
for adaptation,
mitigation and
development trade-offs
DISCUSSION

CCAFS Donors3. Policy-enabling environments that
facilitate the transition
Role of policy
Levels of policy
Interactions
Creating incentives
Removing barriers
Shaping equitable access to resources for different actors
Need for policy response at all levels, from municipal to global.
Interaction among these policy levels
Food systems policy can touch a number of other systems

CCAFS Donors3. Policy-enabling environments that
facilitate the transition
Food systems typologies
Key
challenges
Actors Policy ideas
Key Trade-
offs &
equity/
inclusion
challenges
Source: Gómez and Ricketts (2013)

CCAFS Donors4. Aligning finance to transform food systems
under a changing climate
Climate change affects all
sectors of the economy
and agriculture in particular!
key trends and
unforeseen
developmentsScenario-based
approach for forward-
looking assessments
can be critical for a
“default future” and to
adopt new strategies
Important to identify
Transition risks may affect their portfolios.
Resulting from the transition to low-carbon
and resilient global food systems

CCAFS Donors4. Aligning finance to transform food systems
under a changing climate
24 global industry leaders and
experts from public and private sectors
Develop a set of forward-looking impact scenarios that can support decision
makers in assessing how the transformation to low-carbon and resilient global food systems in
2040 might look, and the best avenues to finance it.
OBJECTIVE:
Deepen the dialogue and propose
innovative solutions on how
financiers can foster
the transformation of global food
systems to meet current and future
challenges in relation to poverty,
food security, climate and
environmental issues.

CCAFS Donors5. What is the role of changing diets in the
transformation of the global food system?
Diets are an outcome of people’s choices: “consumer behavior”. Choices are both individual
and collective.
Levers with particular potential for near-term change
in diets will depend on the political economy at
national and global levels.
Historically there have been substantial changes in people’s diets and diets remain in flux.
Appropriate actions to change diets will address not just consumers
themselves, but all parts of the food system

CCAFS Donors5. What is the role of changing diets in the
transformation of the global food system?
Interesting contradictory positions in the global discourse
Diets and food
waste are
understood as
“demand-side
issues”.
Consumers’ adoptions of
new behaviors have been seen
primarily as a marketing or
education issue, while farmers’
and businesses’ adoptions of
new behaviors have been seen
as an issue of economic
incentives.
Solving malnutrition
has been
treated largely as a
supply issue, while
solving obesity has
been treated largely as
a behavioral issue.

Context-specific transformative actions
at all scales tailored to geography,
socio-economic and cultural dynamics
and agro-ecology are needed
CCAFS DonorsMAIN MESSAGES
Systemic shifts that activate adaptation
and transformational pathways that
support different types of food systems
across the globe are needed
Technologies for transformed food
systems in 2 dimensions: (a)
Appropriate technologies for adoption
and implementation at massive scale;
(b) Good-bet blue-sky technologies
appropriate
Enabling environment to achieve
transformation will include policies and
institutions that generate the right
incentives towards transformation

Strong organizations along the value
chains making use of the digital era and
promoting changes in food
consumption that can contribute to a
sustainable development will be
needed
Any kind of transformation will be
disruptive and as a consequence
winners and losers will be part of it.
Trade-offs between actors at current
and different time frames must be
acknowledged!
Public and private sector actors will
seize the numerous development,
business and finance opportunities that
climate change and the transformation
of global food systems represent
CCAFS DonorsMAIN MESSAGES
Comprehensive actions will be
required across the entire food
system!!

a.m.loboguerrero@cigar.org
Thank you