Trends shaping education 2019
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Did you ever wonder whether education has a role to play in preparing our societies for an age of artificial intelligence? Or what the impact of climate change might be on our schools, families and communities? Trends Shaping Education ( http://www.oecd.org/edu/trends-shaping-education-22187049.htm) examines major economic, political, social and technological trends affecting education. While the trends are robust, the questions raised in this book are suggestive, and aim to inform strategic thinking and stimulate reflection on the challenges facing education – and on how and whether education can influence these trends. This book covers a rich array of topics related to globalisation, democracy, security, ageing and modern cultures. The content for this 2019 edition has been updated and also expanded with a wide range of new indicators. Along with the trends and their relationship to education, the book includes a new section on future’s thinking inspired by foresight methodologies. This book is designed to give policy makers, researchers, educational leaders, administrators and teachers a robust, non specialist source of international comparative trends shaping education, whether in schools, universities or in programmes for older adults. It will also be of interest to students and the wider public, including parents.
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Trends shaping education 2019
- 2. 2 Trends Shaping Education 2019 Stimulate reflection about the future of education Determine robust data on trends Intention and purpose Inform strategic thinking Policy makers • Ministry retreats, strategic thinking workshops Researchers/teacher educators • Inclusion in teacher education curriculums, education futures Students • Tool in classrooms, strategic thinking for associations Educational practitioners • Futures thinking, global mega-trends
- 3. 3 Trends Shaping Education Spotlights Workshops Tailor-made for countries • Contact the Trends team to develop a workshop Upcoming spotlights • Financial education in a digital world • Play Most recent • Writing in a changing world • EdTech Structure • 1 to 1 ½ days • 20 to 25 educational leaders and policy makers Outcomes • Strengthening futures thinking capacity • Identifying challenges and opportunities for medium- long term High usability • Concise information • Practical examples of policies from other countries
- 4. 4 Trends Shaping Education 2019 1 Shifting global gravity Modern culturesPublic matters Security Living longer, living better 5432 Five thematic chapters: “Systems” “Individuals”
- 5. GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEING MODERN CULTURES Chapter 1 Global mobility Research & Development Global markets Sustainable consumption Wealth & Inequality Growing middle class Shifting global wealth Air transport R&D spending E-waste Artificial Intelligence Migration Global value chains
- 6. Shifting global gravity 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 2017 2023 2029 Headcount(billions) %ofworldpopulation World middle class share of world population World middle class World population The global middle class on the rise Estimates of the size of the global middle class, percentage of the world population (left axis) and headcount (right axis), 1950-2030 Figure 1.2 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 7. Shifting global gravity 0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Freight(million-tonkilometres) Passengerscarried(billions) Passengers, OECD members Passengers, world Freight, OECD members Freight, world Ready for take-off? Increasing air transport of people (left axis) and freight (right axis), 1970-2017 Figure 1.3 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 8. Shifting global gravity 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 Millionsofpeople Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania More people on the move Estimates of international migrant stock by region of destination, 1990-2017 Figure 1.5 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 9. Shifting global gravity 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Numberofpatents The growth of AI technologies Number of patents in artificial intelligence technologies, 1991-2015 Figure 1.10 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 10. And education? Connecting education and globalisation Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en • Providing high quality early childhood and care for all • Building human capital; addressing issues of brain drain • Attracting top researchers • Supporting partnerships for innovation • Developing activities for young scientists and innovators • Providing targeted training for recent arrivals • Adapting instruction and assessment methods to reflect cultural diversity • Recognising prior learning and qualifications • Building capacity to understand the perspectives of others • Fostering skills to take action for collective well-being and sustainable development Global competence Mobility Inequality The knowledge economy
- 11. Chapter 2 GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEING MODERN CULTURES Civic participation Inequality Group rights Rurality Multiculturalism Income gap Online news Sovereignty referendums Employment City networks Tax havensDemographics Sovereignty
- 12. Public matters Income gap continues to grow Trends in real household incomes by percentile, OECD average, 1985-2015 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Bottom 10% Mean Median Top 10% Figure 2.1 Index 1985 = 1 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 13. Public matters Declining voter turnout in OECD countries Change in average voting rates per decade in OECD countries, 1990s and 2010s 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %ofvotingturnout 1990s 2010s Figure 2.3 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 14. Public matters Reading the news online: Is this for real? Individuals using the Internet (last 3 months) for reading/downloading the news online, 2005 and 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %ofInternetusers 2005 2017 Figure 2.4 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 15. Public matters Objective: 50/50 Number of countries with laws defining gender quotas in national legislatures worldwide, 1990-2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1990 1991 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Numberofcountries Legislated Candidate Quotas Reserved seats Figure 2.8 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 16. And education? Connecting education and democracy Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en • Involving multiple stakeholders in decision-making • Supporting networks to compensate for capacity gaps across the system • Developing the potential of all pupils • Challenging stereotypes • Fighting segregation and other exclusionary policies •Highlighting democratic rights and civic engagement •Strengthening analytical and critical thinking skills to assess and use information •Promoting participatory governance for schools and classrooms • Providing high-quality early childhood education and care for all • Increasing connections between different educational pathways • Funding and incentives for the most disadvantaged students Equity Democratic citizenship Modern governance Inclusive- ness
- 17. Chapter 3 GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEING MODERN CULTURES Nuclear testing Householddebt and savings CyberEconomic NationalEnvironmental Health Antibiotic resistance Roadsafety Security experts Natural disasters Jobsecurity War and conflict
- 18. Security in a risky world The rise of superbugs Average proportion of infections caused by bacteria resistant to antimicrobial treatment for eight antibiotic- bacterium combinations in 2005, 2015 and 2030 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 %ofinfections 2005 2015 2030 Figure 3.2 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 19. Security in a risky world Too big for your (data) breaches? World’s biggest data breaches by method of leak (billions of records lost), 2004-2018 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Recordslost(billions) accidentally published hacked inside job lost / stolen device or media poor security Figure 3.3 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 20. Security in a risky world Eye of the storm: increasing natural disasters worldwide Number of recorded events, 1900-2018 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Numberofevents Figure 3.7 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 21. Security in a risky world Household savings and debt Household savings (% of disposable income, left axis) and household debt (% of disposable income, right axis), OECD average, 1970-2016 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Debtas%ofdisposableincome Savingsas%ofdisposableincome Savings (left axis) Debt (right axis) Figure 3.9 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 22. And education? Connecting education and security What are some of the ways security trends interact with education, and how can education affect these trends? Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en • Strengthening financial literacy • Providing effective skills development for lifelong learning • Supporting apprenticeship models with diverse types of employers (including digital skills) • Fostering “green” fields of study • Promoting eco-friendly institutions • Supporting R&D in innovative green technology •Developing digital skills •Better use of technology in teaching and learning •Building partnerships with industry leaders, law enforcement and responsible hackers • Building health literacy for all ages • Ensuring safety standards in schools and play spaces • Fostering tolerance, trust and resilience Protecting mind and body Safe- guarding cyberspace Securing financial well-being Preserving the environ- ment
- 23. Chapter 4 GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEING MODERN CULTURES Dementia Pensions “Elderhood”Work Ageing: New challengesSilver economy Healthy ageing Medical advancements Active retirees Civic engagement Purchasing power Retraining / reskilling Digital fraud
- 24. Living longer, living better 70 is the new 60 Total gains in life expectancy at birth, OECD countries, 2000-2016 Figure 4.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Estonia Korea Turkey Ireland Slovenia Latvia Portugal CzechRepublic SlovakRepublic Denmark Hungary Poland Israel Luxembourg France OECDaverage Norway Spain Finland Austria Canada Switzerland UnitedKingdom NewZealand Netherlands Australia Belgium Italy Lithuania Germany Greece Japan Iceland Sweden Chile Mexico UnitedStates years Gains in healthy life expectancy Additional gains in life expectancy Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 25. Living longer, living better The dementia threat People with dementia per 1 000 population (all ages), 2017 and estimates for 2037 Figure 4.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Mexico Turkey SlovakRepublic Korea Poland CzechRepublic Israel Hungary Ireland UnitedStates Chile Slovenia Iceland Canada Luxembourg NewZealand Australia Latvia Lithuania Estonia OECDaverage Norway Netherlands Denmark UnitedKingdom Switzerland Belgium Austria Sweden Finland Spain Greece France Portugal Germany Italy Japan SouthAfrica Indonesia India China Brazil Russian… Numberofpeople 2017 2037 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 26. Living longer, living better Time to retire? Average years in retirement across OECD countries, 1970-2016 Figure 4.5 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 1970 1985 2000 2015 15 years on average in 1970 22 years on average in 2016 Women 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 1970 1985 2000 2015 11 years on average in 1970 18 years on average in 2016 Men Time in retirement Retirement age Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 27. Living longer, living better Going digital Different Internet uses by age group (last 3 months), OECD average, 2008, 2013 and 2017 Figure 4.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2008 2013 2017 2008 2013 2017 2008 2013 2017 2008 2013 2017 ...daily or almost every day ...for finding information about goods and services ...for seeking health information ...for Internet banking %ofindividualsusingtheInternet... Younger adults (16-24) Adults (16-74) Older adults (55-74) Difference younger-older Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 28. And education? Connecting education and ageing Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en • Engaging students of all ages in volunteering • Sharing the wisdom of older generations in classes • Supporting innovative learning arrangements within schools and communities • Addressing obesity, smoking, sleep deprivation • Offering training in caring for fragile elders • Supporting excellence in medical research and science • Teaching social and emotional skills for all ages • Providing targeted teacher education on well-being • Combatting loneliness and challenging age discrimination • Ensuring all age groups have access to education that covers their learning and life needs • Promoting continuous professional development of teachers and school leaders Lifelong learning Social and emotional well-being Inter- generational learning Physical health and lifestyles
- 29. Chapter 5 New family structures Meat production Gender in work Ethical consumption Modern families Virtual becoming reality The connected economy Gig economy Gender equity Labour force participation Shareconomy Electric vehicles Youth empowerment GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEING MODERN CULTURES
- 30. Modern cultures Access to access Number of mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, OECD average, 2009-2017 Figure 5.1 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Numberofsubscriptions Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 31. Modern cultures Freeing up work? Combined registered users of Upwork and Freelancer, 2005-2016 Figure 5.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Millionusers Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 32. Modern cultures Partners in time Number of OECD countries granting paid paternity leave, 1975-2016 Figure 5.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Numberofcountries Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 33. Modern cultures Mass self-communication and creative expression Individuals using the Internet (last 3 months) for uploading self-created content on sharing websites, 2008 and 2017 Figure 5.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 16-24 25-55 55-74 %ofinternetusers Age group 2008 2017 Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en
- 34. And education? Connecting education and modern cultures Source: OECD (2019),Trends Shaping Education 2019, https://doi.org/10.1787/trends_edu-2019-en • Welcoming all families in schools • Providing teachers with the tools to teach diverse classrooms • Helping schools communicate with all households • Fostering positive attitudes to ICT, especially for female and disadvantaged students • Strengthening digital skills • Integrating pedagogical and digital knowledge of teachers • Upholding respect among students • Promoting trust between parents, teachers and administrators • Developing zero tolerance for discrimination in educational settings • Preparing students to become entrepreneurs • Teaching creativity • Using collaborative problem-solving in and beyond the classroom Creativity and entrepre- neurship Values and attitudes Diverse families Digital divide
- 35. Thank you! For more information: http://www.oecd.org/education/ceri/trends-shaping-education.htm
Editor's Notes
- Note: Northern America includes Bermuda, Canada, Greenland, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, USA and Mexico.
- Note: Data refer to the number of IP5 patent families in artificial intelligence (AI), by filing date and inventor's country, using fractional counts. AI refers to the "Human interface" and "Cognition and meaning understanding" categories in the ICT patent taxonomy as described in Inaba and Squicciarini (2017). 2014 and 2015 figures are estimated based on available data for those years.
- Some answers are obvious and immediate, for example the impact of technology on learners, and conversely, the potential for educators to harness the possibility of technology. Others operate on a longer term, for example the need to establish awareness for sustainability and global connectedness
- Note: Income refers to real household disposable income. OECD average refers to the unweighted average of the 17 OECD countries for which data are available: Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. Some data points have been interpolated or use the value from the closest available year.
- Note: Countries are ranked in descending order by the average voting rates for the period 2010-18, covering national parliamentary elections from 2010 to the latest year with data available. Voting in Australia, Belgium and Luxembourg is compulsory. Vote was also compulsory in Chile until 2012 (the two elections comprised in this graph for the 2010s period, 2013 and 2017, were thus held under voluntary suffrage.
- Note: Where the data for countries were not consistently available in the same years, figures from the closest year are used.
- The figure includes only quotas introduced at the national level. It does not include voluntary party quotas because the adoption year varies across parties in a given country.
- Some answers are obvious and immediate, for example the impact of large numbers of refugees on classrooms, and conversely, the potential for educators to harness the strength in diversity. Others operate on the longer term, for example encouraging civic participation in early years to foster engagement in democratic processes in adulthood.
- Note: * indicates country is missing more than 50% of observations, across all eight antibiotic-bacterium pairs, between 2005 and 2015. Countries are sorted left to right based on ascending resistance proportions in 2015.
- Note: includes those from drought, floods, biological epidemics, extreme weather, extreme temperature, landslides, dry mass movements, extra-terrestrial impacts, wildfires, volcanic activity and earthquakes.
- Note: OECD average refers to the average of 32 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Estonia, Finland, France, United Kingdom, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxemburg, Latvia, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, New Zealand, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Sweden and the United States
- Some answers are obvious and immediate, for example, the impact of cyber risks on students, and conversely, the potential for educators to teach digital resilience. Others are longer term, for example, the need to build school buildings that can withstand extreme weather events.
- Note: Countries are ranked in descending order of life expectancy gains.
- Note: OECD average is based on data for 26 OECD countries. Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom
- Some answers are obvious and immediate, for example, the impact of dementia, and conversely, the need for further research on brain diseases. Others possess an importance in the longer term, for example increasing life expectancy at birth and the time spent in retirement.
- Note: Includes extrapolated figures for Upwork based on most recent annual growth rates. Registered number of users for the two platforms combined.
- Note: The figure is based on average data for 26 OECD countries. These include Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom
- Some answers are obvious and immediate, for example, the impact of women in the workforce, and conversely, the need for high quality early childhood education and care. Others operate in the longer term, such as trends in sustainable consumption.