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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                          20th December 2012
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.                        5945 remains a sore point
 BSE SENSEX                    19476.00             0.57
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5929.60             0.56
                                                              Mirroring the positive global market cues the domestic
                                                              markets witnessed a gap up opening. However, markets
 NIFTY DEC. FUT.                5946.90             0.30
                                                              failed to capitalize on morning gains and came off the highs
 India VIX                        14.47             0.20
                                                              for the day on back of profit taking and selling pressure.
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                        Follow up buying remained absent at higher levels as Nifty
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3        failed to test the 5945 resistance level. However, the markets
Support           5885          5816            5747
                                                              managed to move higher in last hour of trade on back of
                                                              short covering and selective buying support. The markets
Resistance        5945          6135            6313
                                                              ended the day with moderate gains to close near the highs
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                         for the day. The top gainers for the day were Sun Pharma,
50 Day SMA                     5733.58        ◄Positive       ONGC, Tata Motors, Asian Paints, Wipro, Tata Steel, Maruti,
100 Day SMA                    5569.74
                                                              Bajaj Auto, Jindal Steel and Ambuja Cements.
200 Day SMA                    5364.77                        Technically, the market breadth remained positive
   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE
                                                              amidst lower volumes, indicates lack of participation t
                                                              higher levels. The smart pull back rally continued on the
Advances                            1651               677
                                                              bourses. The prevailing technical positive conditions still
Declines                            1310               474
                                                              hold good. The SRSI and KST have moved above their
Same                                 144                 45   respective averages. Moreover, the Stochastic is already
Total                               3105             1196     placed above its average. The MACD and KST are placed
A/D Ratio                        1.26 : 1          1.43 : 1   in the positive territory. The Nifty remains placed above
                                                              its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *                   Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day
               19/12/12        18/12/12        % Chg.         SMA and 200-day SMA, the later being called the ‘Golden
BSE                    2901         3475            -16.52    Cross breakout’. These positive conditions would lead to
NSE                    8444         8203              2.93    further buying support. However, the prevailing technical
Total                 11345       11678              -2.86    negatives continue to hold good and would weigh on the
                                                              market sentiment at higher levels The negative
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                   divergence pattern formed on the Nifty still holds good.
               19/12/12        18/12/12        % Chg.         Moreover, the MACD has slipped below its average.
BSE                  2518.75     3065.71            -17.84    These negative technical conditions would lead to
NSE              14122.78       13446.14              5.03    selling pressure, especially at higher levels. The market
NSE F&O         122207.74 192649.23                 -36.56    sentiment remains cautious as the Nifty index continues
Total           138849.27 209161.08                 -33.62
                                                              to trade below the 5945 resistance level. Now, it is
                                                              important that the Nifty witnesses buying support for the
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *              Nifty to test the 5945 level and move above it. It Nifty fails
               19/12/12        18/12/12        % Chg.         then it could test the 5800-5750 level in the near future.
Index Fut.           209703      463897             -54.80
                                                              Pull back rallies should be used as an opportunity to
                                                              create short positions until the Nifty spot index closes
Stock Fut.           686957      774169             -11.27
                                                              above the 5950 level. In the meanwhile the markets
Index Opt.        2835374       4768539             -40.54
                                                              would take cues from the Parliament session, global
Stock Opt.           339752      462420             -26.53    markets, Rupee and the crude prices. The support levels
Total             4071786       6469025             -31.78    for Nifty are placed at 5816, 5747 and 5665. The Nifty faces
NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE                                 resistance at 5885, 5945, 6135 and 6313 levels.

Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                   Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                    Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                   www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                   Stop
                                                   Initiation       Stop           Loss
      Stock             Close          Action        Price         Loss *           (%)           Target          Target (%)   Remarks
Adani Enterprises        291.70    Buy Above            293.00      287.50           1.88           305.00              4.10
Asian Paints           4429.85     Buy Above           4435.00     4372.00           1.42         4575.00               3.16
                                                                                                                               TGT of
                                                                                                                               2150
                                                                                                                               Achieved
                                                                                                                               given Buy
                                                                                                                               @ 2085 on
Bajaj Auto           2143.05   Buy Above         2147.00 2116.00                     1.44         2215.00               3.17   14/12/12
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.

                                                              Intra-day Resistance                           Intra-day Support
      Indices              Close         Pivot Point         R1       R2         R3                   S1            S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                    19476               19471      19521      19567             19663        19425           19374      19278
S&P CNX NIFTY                   5930               5927          5942       5955           5984            5914         5898       5869
NIFTY DEC. FUT.                 5947               5948          5961       5974           6000            5934         5922       5895




                                                Stocks To Watch Out Today
Aban, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Adani PowerAllahabad Bank, , Apollo Tyre, Bajaj Auto, Bajaj Holdings, Bank of India,
BEL, BPCL, Canara Bank, Cipla, Colgate, Federal Bank, GAIL, GE Shipping, GSPL, HCL Tech; Hero Motocorp, Hindalco,
Indian Hotels, Infosys Tech; JIndal Steel, Jain Irrigation, LIC Hsg; lupin, McLeod Russel, Oil India, ONGC, PTC, REC, SAIL, ,
SCI, Sesa Goa, Sintex, Sobha, Sun Pharma, Tata Chem; Tata Motors, Tata Steel, TCS, Wipro, Yes Bank
Axis Bank, Balrampur Chini, Cairn, Dabur, Essar oil, India Cement, ITC, L&T, OnMobile, Siemens, TTK Prestige



                                                           Keynote Capitals Ltd.
               The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                           www.keynotecapitals.com
NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                      www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 201212

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 20th December 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. 5945 remains a sore point BSE SENSEX 19476.00 0.57 S&P CNX NIFTY 5929.60 0.56 Mirroring the positive global market cues the domestic markets witnessed a gap up opening. However, markets NIFTY DEC. FUT. 5946.90 0.30 failed to capitalize on morning gains and came off the highs India VIX 14.47 0.20 for the day on back of profit taking and selling pressure. S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels Follow up buying remained absent at higher levels as Nifty Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 failed to test the 5945 resistance level. However, the markets Support 5885 5816 5747 managed to move higher in last hour of trade on back of short covering and selective buying support. The markets Resistance 5945 6135 6313 ended the day with moderate gains to close near the highs Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY for the day. The top gainers for the day were Sun Pharma, 50 Day SMA 5733.58 ◄Positive ONGC, Tata Motors, Asian Paints, Wipro, Tata Steel, Maruti, 100 Day SMA 5569.74 Bajaj Auto, Jindal Steel and Ambuja Cements. 200 Day SMA 5364.77 Technically, the market breadth remained positive Market Breadth * BSE NSE amidst lower volumes, indicates lack of participation t higher levels. The smart pull back rally continued on the Advances 1651 677 bourses. The prevailing technical positive conditions still Declines 1310 474 hold good. The SRSI and KST have moved above their Same 144 45 respective averages. Moreover, the Stochastic is already Total 3105 1196 placed above its average. The MACD and KST are placed A/D Ratio 1.26 : 1 1.43 : 1 in the positive territory. The Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The Volume (Lacs Shares) * Nifty’s 50-day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day 19/12/12 18/12/12 % Chg. SMA and 200-day SMA, the later being called the ‘Golden BSE 2901 3475 -16.52 Cross breakout’. These positive conditions would lead to NSE 8444 8203 2.93 further buying support. However, the prevailing technical Total 11345 11678 -2.86 negatives continue to hold good and would weigh on the market sentiment at higher levels The negative Turnover ( ` Crores) * divergence pattern formed on the Nifty still holds good. 19/12/12 18/12/12 % Chg. Moreover, the MACD has slipped below its average. BSE 2518.75 3065.71 -17.84 These negative technical conditions would lead to NSE 14122.78 13446.14 5.03 selling pressure, especially at higher levels. The market NSE F&O 122207.74 192649.23 -36.56 sentiment remains cautious as the Nifty index continues Total 138849.27 209161.08 -33.62 to trade below the 5945 resistance level. Now, it is important that the Nifty witnesses buying support for the F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * Nifty to test the 5945 level and move above it. It Nifty fails 19/12/12 18/12/12 % Chg. then it could test the 5800-5750 level in the near future. Index Fut. 209703 463897 -54.80 Pull back rallies should be used as an opportunity to create short positions until the Nifty spot index closes Stock Fut. 686957 774169 -11.27 above the 5950 level. In the meanwhile the markets Index Opt. 2835374 4768539 -40.54 would take cues from the Parliament session, global Stock Opt. 339752 462420 -26.53 markets, Rupee and the crude prices. The support levels Total 4071786 6469025 -31.78 for Nifty are placed at 5816, 5747 and 5665. The Nifty faces NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE resistance at 5885, 5945, 6135 and 6313 levels. Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target Target (%) Remarks Adani Enterprises 291.70 Buy Above 293.00 287.50 1.88 305.00 4.10 Asian Paints 4429.85 Buy Above 4435.00 4372.00 1.42 4575.00 3.16 TGT of 2150 Achieved given Buy @ 2085 on Bajaj Auto 2143.05 Buy Above 2147.00 2116.00 1.44 2215.00 3.17 14/12/12 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 19476 19471 19521 19567 19663 19425 19374 19278 S&P CNX NIFTY 5930 5927 5942 5955 5984 5914 5898 5869 NIFTY DEC. FUT. 5947 5948 5961 5974 6000 5934 5922 5895 Stocks To Watch Out Today Aban, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Adani PowerAllahabad Bank, , Apollo Tyre, Bajaj Auto, Bajaj Holdings, Bank of India, BEL, BPCL, Canara Bank, Cipla, Colgate, Federal Bank, GAIL, GE Shipping, GSPL, HCL Tech; Hero Motocorp, Hindalco, Indian Hotels, Infosys Tech; JIndal Steel, Jain Irrigation, LIC Hsg; lupin, McLeod Russel, Oil India, ONGC, PTC, REC, SAIL, , SCI, Sesa Goa, Sintex, Sobha, Sun Pharma, Tata Chem; Tata Motors, Tata Steel, TCS, Wipro, Yes Bank Axis Bank, Balrampur Chini, Cairn, Dabur, Essar oil, India Cement, ITC, L&T, OnMobile, Siemens, TTK Prestige Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com