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Daily Technical Outlook

                                                                                                           3rd December 2012
         Indices *             Close          % Chg.                         Momentum continues…
 BSE SENSEX                    19339.90             0.88
                                                              Mirroring the positive global market cues the domestic
 S&P CNX NIFTY                  5879.85             0.94
                                                              markets witnessed a firm opening helping the markets move
 NIFTY DEC. FUT.                5909.05             0.68
                                                              higher. Though, nervousness prevailed ahead of the IIP
 India VIX                        15.15             -1.43     numbers and profit taking was witnessed, the markets
        S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels                        managed to bounce back from lower levels on back of inline
                                                              IIP numbers. Follow up buying support and short covering
                 Level 1       Level 2         Level 3
                                                              was witnessed at higher levels, which helped the markets
Support           5816          5747            5665
                                                              capitalize on morning gains. The markets showed no signs of
Resistance        5885          5912            5945          weakness as Nifty moved closer to the 5885 resistance level
 Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY                         but failed to move above it. The markets ended the day with
50 Day SMA                     5677.38        ◄Positive
                                                              modest gains to close near the highs for the day. The top
                                                              gainers for the day were Ultratech Cemco, Jindal Steel,
100 Day SMA                    5483.71
                                                              BHEL, ONGC, IDFC, Bank of Baroda, Hindalco, BPCL, Kotak
200 Day SMA                    5335.73
                                                              Bank and Tata Steel.
   Market Breadth *             BSE             NSE
Advances                            1687               736
                                                              Technically, the market breadth remained positive
                                                              amidst higher volumes, which augurs well for the
Declines                            1286               419
                                                              markets. The prevailing positive technical conditions
Same                                 116                 37
                                                              helped the markets move higher. These conditions still
Total                               3089             1192     hold valid and would help the markets move further
A/D Ratio                        1.31 : 1          1.76 : 1   higher. The MACD, KST, Stochastic and RSI all are
                                                              already placed above their respective averages.
             Volume (Lacs Shares)         *
                                                              Moreover, the MACD and KST have moved in the positive
               30/11/12        29/11/12        % Chg.
                                                              territory. The Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA,
BSE                    3373         3154              6.94    100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. More so the Nifty’s 50-
NSE                   12648       11187             13.07     day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and
Total                 16021       14341             11.72     200-day SMA, the later being called the ‘Golden Cross
                                                              breakout’. These positive conditions would lead to
             Turnover ( ` Crores)         *                   further buying support and regular bouts of short
               30/11/12        29/11/12        % Chg.         covering would be witnessed. However, the sole
BSE                  2965.40     3341.97            -11.27    prevailing technical negative the Stochastic, which is
NSE              20385.99       19419.44              4.98    placed in the over bought zone, would lead to profit
NSE F&O         117333.79 303821.87                 -61.38    taking at regular intervals. The ADX line and +DI line are
Total           140685.18 326583.28                 -56.92
                                                              moving higher and +DI line is placed above the 37 level
                                                              indicating buyers are gaining strength. The market
         F&O Contracts Traded (NSE)            *              sentiment remains upbeat as Nifty nears the 5885
               30/11/12        29/11/12        % Chg.         resistance level. Now, it is important that the Nifty
Index Fut.           334876      738304             -54.64    witnesses follow up buying support at higher levels for
Stock Fut.           681838     1624517             -58.03
                                                              the Nifty to test the 5912-5945 resistance levels. In the
                                                              meanwhile the markets would take cues from the on
Index Opt.        2678544       7612483             -64.81
                                                              going parliament session, global markets, Rupee and the
Stock Opt.           272941      473042             -42.30
                                                              crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at
Total             3968199      10448346             -49.14    5816, 5747, 5665, 5554 and 5447. The Nifty faces resistance
NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE                                 at 5885, 5910 and 5945 levels.

Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net                   Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in


                                                                   Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                                   www.keynotecapitals.com
Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days)
                                                                                    Stop
                                                     Initiation       Stop          Loss                     Target
      Stock             Close           Action         Price         Loss *          (%)       Target         (%)              Remarks
Allahabad Bank           143.65        Buy Above             144         141.30      2.11          150          3.91
Apollo Tyre                84.60       Buy Above              85          82.75      2.65           90          5.88
Aurobindo Pharma         188.00        Buy Above             189         184.50      2.12          199          5.57
Bank of Baroda           762.60        Buy Above             764         753.00      1.44          788          3.14
Godrej Inds            307.20   Buy Above            308      299.00                 2.92          328          6.49
* Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis.

                                                                Intra-day Resistance                         Intra-day Support
       Indices             Close          Pivot Point          R1       R2         R3                   S1          S2         S3
BSE SENSEX                   19340                 19300       19413        19486          19672        19227          19113       18927
S&P CNX NIFTY                   5880                5864          5901       5922           5979         5843           5807        5750
NIFTY DEC. FUT.                 5909                5901          5934       5959           6017         5876           5843        5785




                                             Stocks To Watch Out Today
Allahabad Bank, Apollo Tyre, Ashok Leyland, Aurobindo Pharma, Axis Bank, Bajaj Holdings, BoB, BoI, Bharat Forge, Bharti
Airtel, BHEL, Cummins, Dabur, DCB, Fortis, GAIl, Godrej Inds; Grasim, GSPL, HCL Tech; HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hindalco, IDBI,
IDFC, Indusind Bank, IFCI, IGL, ITC, Jindal Steel, Kotak Bank, KTK Bank, LIC Hsg; Lupin, M&M, MRF, NTPC, ONGC, Opto
Circuit, Oriental Bank, Pantaloon Retail, PFC, PTC, Punj Lloyd, RCom; REC, Rel. Capital, Rel. Infra, SBI, Sesa Goa, SIB;
Syndicate Bank, Tata Chem; Tata Power, Tata Steel, TCS, Titan, UCO Bank, Ultratech Cemco, Uniphos, Voltas, Wipro,
Idea, Jet Airways, Maruti, Oil India, United Spirits, ZEEL



                                                             Keynote Capitals Ltd.
              The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                             www.keynotecapitals.com
NOTE:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS
SMA – Simple Moving Average
EMA – Exponential Moving Average
WMA – Weighted Moving Average




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                                                       Keynote Capitals Ltd.
          The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322
                                                      www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote technicals daily report for 031212

  • 1. Daily Technical Outlook 3rd December 2012 Indices * Close % Chg. Momentum continues… BSE SENSEX 19339.90 0.88 Mirroring the positive global market cues the domestic S&P CNX NIFTY 5879.85 0.94 markets witnessed a firm opening helping the markets move NIFTY DEC. FUT. 5909.05 0.68 higher. Though, nervousness prevailed ahead of the IIP India VIX 15.15 -1.43 numbers and profit taking was witnessed, the markets S&P CNX NIFTY Technical Levels managed to bounce back from lower levels on back of inline IIP numbers. Follow up buying support and short covering Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 was witnessed at higher levels, which helped the markets Support 5816 5747 5665 capitalize on morning gains. The markets showed no signs of Resistance 5885 5912 5945 weakness as Nifty moved closer to the 5885 resistance level Simple Moving Averages S&P CNX NIFTY but failed to move above it. The markets ended the day with 50 Day SMA 5677.38 ◄Positive modest gains to close near the highs for the day. The top gainers for the day were Ultratech Cemco, Jindal Steel, 100 Day SMA 5483.71 BHEL, ONGC, IDFC, Bank of Baroda, Hindalco, BPCL, Kotak 200 Day SMA 5335.73 Bank and Tata Steel. Market Breadth * BSE NSE Advances 1687 736 Technically, the market breadth remained positive amidst higher volumes, which augurs well for the Declines 1286 419 markets. The prevailing positive technical conditions Same 116 37 helped the markets move higher. These conditions still Total 3089 1192 hold valid and would help the markets move further A/D Ratio 1.31 : 1 1.76 : 1 higher. The MACD, KST, Stochastic and RSI all are already placed above their respective averages. Volume (Lacs Shares) * Moreover, the MACD and KST have moved in the positive 30/11/12 29/11/12 % Chg. territory. The Nifty remains placed above its 50-day SMA, BSE 3373 3154 6.94 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. More so the Nifty’s 50- NSE 12648 11187 13.07 day SMA remains placed above Nifty’s 100-day SMA and Total 16021 14341 11.72 200-day SMA, the later being called the ‘Golden Cross breakout’. These positive conditions would lead to Turnover ( ` Crores) * further buying support and regular bouts of short 30/11/12 29/11/12 % Chg. covering would be witnessed. However, the sole BSE 2965.40 3341.97 -11.27 prevailing technical negative the Stochastic, which is NSE 20385.99 19419.44 4.98 placed in the over bought zone, would lead to profit NSE F&O 117333.79 303821.87 -61.38 taking at regular intervals. The ADX line and +DI line are Total 140685.18 326583.28 -56.92 moving higher and +DI line is placed above the 37 level indicating buyers are gaining strength. The market F&O Contracts Traded (NSE) * sentiment remains upbeat as Nifty nears the 5885 30/11/12 29/11/12 % Chg. resistance level. Now, it is important that the Nifty Index Fut. 334876 738304 -54.64 witnesses follow up buying support at higher levels for Stock Fut. 681838 1624517 -58.03 the Nifty to test the 5912-5945 resistance levels. In the meanwhile the markets would take cues from the on Index Opt. 2678544 7612483 -64.81 going parliament session, global markets, Rupee and the Stock Opt. 272941 473042 -42.30 crude prices. The support levels for Nifty are placed at Total 3968199 10448346 -49.14 5816, 5747, 5665, 5554 and 5447. The Nifty faces resistance NOTE - * - Source – BSE & NSE at 5885, 5910 and 5945 levels. Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research), Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Jaldi 5 (Short Term Technical Ideas for 5 Trading Days) Stop Initiation Stop Loss Target Stock Close Action Price Loss * (%) Target (%) Remarks Allahabad Bank 143.65 Buy Above 144 141.30 2.11 150 3.91 Apollo Tyre 84.60 Buy Above 85 82.75 2.65 90 5.88 Aurobindo Pharma 188.00 Buy Above 189 184.50 2.12 199 5.57 Bank of Baroda 762.60 Buy Above 764 753.00 1.44 788 3.14 Godrej Inds 307.20 Buy Above 308 299.00 2.92 328 6.49 * Stop Losses are to be considered strictly on closing basis. Intra-day Resistance Intra-day Support Indices Close Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3 BSE SENSEX 19340 19300 19413 19486 19672 19227 19113 18927 S&P CNX NIFTY 5880 5864 5901 5922 5979 5843 5807 5750 NIFTY DEC. FUT. 5909 5901 5934 5959 6017 5876 5843 5785 Stocks To Watch Out Today Allahabad Bank, Apollo Tyre, Ashok Leyland, Aurobindo Pharma, Axis Bank, Bajaj Holdings, BoB, BoI, Bharat Forge, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Cummins, Dabur, DCB, Fortis, GAIl, Godrej Inds; Grasim, GSPL, HCL Tech; HDFC, HDFC Bank, Hindalco, IDBI, IDFC, Indusind Bank, IFCI, IGL, ITC, Jindal Steel, Kotak Bank, KTK Bank, LIC Hsg; Lupin, M&M, MRF, NTPC, ONGC, Opto Circuit, Oriental Bank, Pantaloon Retail, PFC, PTC, Punj Lloyd, RCom; REC, Rel. Capital, Rel. Infra, SBI, Sesa Goa, SIB; Syndicate Bank, Tata Chem; Tata Power, Tata Steel, TCS, Titan, UCO Bank, Ultratech Cemco, Uniphos, Voltas, Wipro, Idea, Jet Airways, Maruti, Oil India, United Spirits, ZEEL Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. NOTE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ABBREVATIONS SMA – Simple Moving Average EMA – Exponential Moving Average WMA – Weighted Moving Average Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai, India – 400028. Tel: 3026 6000 / 2269 4322 www.keynotecapitals.com