Presented by Jimmy Smith, Director General, ILRI, at the Food Tank Webinar, 19 October 2016

1. Wherefore livestock?
Does animal agriculture have a role in future
food systems?
Jimmy Smith, Director General,
International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya
Food Tank Webinar
19 October 2016

2. Key messages
• Globally, demand for animal source foods is rising
rapidly; livestock commodities have the highest
production value; animal production has significant
environmental and human health impacts
• ‘Unpacking’ global information reveals many
opportunities for animal agriculture to contribute
to:
• Inclusive, sustainable economic growth
• Equitable livelihoods
• Nutritious and healthy diets
• Sustainable ecosystems

3. Animal sourcefoods: 5of6highest valueglobal
commodities (total valueofthese5=US Int$715 billion)
FAOSTAT 2015
(values for 2013)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Production(MT)millions
Netproductionvalue(Int$)billion
net production value (Int $) billion production (MT)
Cow milk has
overtaken rice

4. Huge increases over 2005/7 amounts
of cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050
From 2bn−3bn
tonnes cereals each year
From 664m−1bn
tonnes dairy each year
From 258m−460m
tonnes meat each year

5. Animal agriculture and the environment
14.5% anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
70% of total freshwater use is for agriculture, of
which 31% is for livestock
30% global terrestrial biomes – livestock raising
33% all croplands – livestock feed

6. Animal agriculture: food safety, AMR and
diet
0% 50% 100%
UK
Netherlands
India
Vietnam
USA
China
Animal source food
Produce
Other
Animal
sources foods
cause food
borne diseases

7. Unpacking
Demand and supply

8. Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050
Millionmetrictonnes
developing
developed

9. 0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
% growth in demand for livestock
products to 2030
2000 - 2030
9
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
Figure 1. Estimates of the % growth in demand for animal source foods in different World regions, comparing 2005 and 2030.
Estimates were developed using the IMPACT model, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI.
Beef Pork
Poultry Milk

10. BMGF, FAO, ILRI
Smallholders still dominate
livestock production in many countries
Region
(definition of
‘smallholder’)
% production by smallholder livestock farms
Beef Chicken
meat
Sheep/goat
meat
Milk Pork Eggs
East Africa
(≤ 6 milking
animals)
60-90
Bangladesh
(< 3ha land)
65 77 78 65 77
India
(< 2ha land)
75 92 92 69 71
Vietnam
(small scale)
80
Philippines
(backyard)
50 35

11. Livestock and livelihoods
• Almost a billion people rely on livestock
for livelihoods
• Over 100 million landless people keep
livestock.
• For the vulnerable, up to 40% of benefits
from livestock keeping come from non-
market, intangible benefits, mostly
insurance and financing.
• In the poorest countries, livestock manure
comprises over 70% of soil fertility
amendments.
• Many employed in local informal livestock
product markets
• 90% of animal products are produced and
consumed in the same country or region
• Over 70% of livestock products are sold
‘informally’

12. Smallholders: part of the development
Not sentimentality or a belief in “small is beautiful”
Based on the evidence and the dual objectives of
 increasing animal source food supply to consumers
 supporting rural development and livelihoods
The evidence:
 They produce the bulk of the livestock (and half of crop) products in
developing countries so need to be part of increase supply strategy
 They continue to be competitive so wont go away on their own
 Does not detract from investing in larger commercial systems

13. Unpacking
Value
Economic growth

14. A valuable market: examples
• Livestock: 40% GDP and growing
• Market value of animal source foods
in Africa in 2050 estimated as US $
151 billion
• Globally disease reduces livestock
productivity by 25% - valued at US
$300 billion per year
• Annual global investment of US $ 25
billion in one health approaches
could save as much as US $100
billion annually
Herrero et al. 2014

15. Demand for livestock commodities in developing
economies will be met – the question is how
Scenario #1
Meeting livestock demand by
importing livestock products
Scenario #2
Meeting livestock demand by
importing livestock industrial production know-how
Scenario #3
Meeting livestock demand by
transforming smallholder livestock systems

16. Demand for milk imports – growing fastest
in SSA
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
S.Asia SE. Asia SSA S.America High income
USD million

17. Employment – for all - matters
1 044
344
735
208 48 94
AFRICA N AMERICA EUROPE
2010
2 478
433
707
452 52 72
AFRICA N AMERICA EUROPE
Total Population
Youth
2050
Regional projections to 2050, of total and
youth (15 to 24) populations in millions

18. Global ramifications
18

19. Smallholder mixed crop-livestock keepers
are competitive
East African dairy
• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy
herd
• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers
• Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers
have same levels of efficiency and profits
Vietnam pig industry
• 95% of production is by producers with less than 100
animals
• Pig producers with 1-2 sows have lower unit costs
than those with more than 4 sows
• Industrial pig production could grow to meet
no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years
• Smallholders will continue to provide most of the porkIFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012

20. Unpacking
Livestock and the environment

21. Global greenhouse gas efficiency
per kilogram of animal protein produced
Large livestock production inefficiencies
in the developing world present an opportunity
Herrero et al PNAS
Improving the feeding and breeding of India’s smallholder dairy cattle
would save some 120 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent each year

22. With improved grazing management and enriched pastures,
the world’s grasslands could store about 600 MT of C02
equivalent each year.

23. Supporting dairy NAMAs in Kenya and
Tanzania
GHG emissions from African livestock excreta were lower than IPCC tier 1
emission factors and cattle breed makes a difference to emissions

24. Unpacking
Livestock and human health

25. Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today
chronic hunger
inadequate diets
overweight
obese
balanced diets
Chronic disease
likely to cost $35
trillion by 2030
11% of GNP lost
annually in Africa
and Asia from
poor nutrition

26. Animal source foods: valuable for human
nutrition, critical in early life
Milk, meat and eggs:
• 13% of the energy and 28% of the protein consumed globally
• For the undernourished consumption of far too little of such foods
presents a major threat to their health and wellbeing.
• Animal source foods contain:
• essential macronutrients (high quality protein and some fatty acids)
• micro nutrients (notably: calcium, vitamin A, B12, iron, zinc, and riboflavin)
• some are lacking in plant based foods; some are naturally more bioavailable in
animal products
• Milk: improves childrens’ growth, preventing stunting
• Meat: improves cognitive ability (long term)

27. • Branding & certification of milk vendors in
Kenya & Guwahti, Assam led to improved
milk safety.
• It benefited the national economy by $33
million per year in Kenya and $6 million in
Assam
• 70% of traders in Assam and 24% in Kenya
are currently registered
• 6 milllion consumers in Kenya and 1.5
million in Assam are benefiting from safer
milk
Positive solutions for food safety:
risk not hazard based; capacity development

28. Key messages
• Globally, demand for animal source foods is rising
rapidly; livestock commodities have the highest
production value; animal production has significant
environmental and human health impacts
• ‘Unpacking’ global information reveals many
opportunities for animal agriculture to contribute
to:
• Inclusive, sustainable economic growth
• Equitable livelihoods
• Nutritious and healthy diets
• Sustainable ecosystems

29. This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.
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ILRI thanks all donors and organizations who globally supported its work through their contributions
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