Unleashing Tanzania’s livestock potential
Iain Wright, Deputy Director General-Research,
International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya
Livestock Expo and National Milk Week
Arusha, Tanzania
30 May 2018

Overview
• The global livestock sector
• Opportunities and challenges for Tanzania
• How Tanzania can respond
• Required investments and returns from recent
livestock sector analysis
• Contributions by ILRI and partners

Five of the top ten global agricultural
commodities by value are animal source foods
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Rice, paddy Milk, whole
fresh cow
Meat, pig Maize Wheat Meat,
chicken
Meat, cattle Potatoes Eggs, hen, in
shell
Sugar cane
Global commodity values (USD)
(average values 2005-2014; animal source foods: USD 825 billion)

0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
High growth in demand for livestock products in
developing countries – projections to 2030
2000 - 2030
4
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
Estimates of the % growth in demand for animal source foods in different World regions, comparing 2005 and 2030.
Estimates were developed using the IMPACT model, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI.
Beef Pork
Poultry Milk

Demand for milk imports – growing fastest
in SSA
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5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
S.Asia SE. Asia SSA S.America High income
USD million

Livestock build global and national economies
• The livestock sector contributes an
average of 40% of the agricultural
GDP globally (livestock is 15-80% of
agricultural GDP in developing
countries)
• The market value of animal-source
foods in Africa in 2050 is estimated
at USD151 billion
• Livestock value chains provide
large numbers of jobs
Herrero et al. 2014

Agenda 2030’s Sustainable Development Goals
• Livestock contribute to all 17 of the SDGs and
directly to at least 8 of the goals.

Tanzania
• Opportunities and challenges
• How Tanzania can respond
• Required investments and returns from recent
livestock sector analysis

Livestock and development drivers in Tanzania
Trends and
contribution
• An important but
underutilized resource:
– Contributes 7% to GDP,
ranks fourth after crops
(12%)
– Over 50% of rural hh earn
income from livestock (22%
of hh income)
– Ownership by hhs: chickens
(86% ); cattle (35%); pigs
(9%) others (10%)
– Traditional breeds with low
productivity dominate
across species (98%)

Unleashing the potential requires more investments
Tanzania livestock and its economy
• Third highest livestock numbers in Africa
contribute only 13% to ag GDP (7% of total
GDP)
• Tanzania cattle/dairy example:
– 28m cattle
– Dairy contributes 1.5% of total GDP
– 0.72 m improved dairy
– 2 billion litres/yr
– History of low private and public
investments, hence the Livestock Master
Plan developed by MALF and ILRI
Comparison with livestock economies elsewhere
• Kenya, livestock is 42% of ag GDP (12% to
total GDP)
• Kenya cattle/dairy example:
– 18m cattle
– Dairy contributes 8% to total GDP
– 4m improved dairy (Africa’s largest); 5
billion litres/yr
– Long history of private and public
investments (e.g., AI subsidy for 10 years
in the 70’s - 80’s
• Other African examples:
- Girinka in Rwanda: >10-fold increase in milk
production in 15 years; now now contributing
6% to GDP;
- 5m beef cattle in Botswana

Leveraging “Livestock”-Led Industrialization:
Tanzania Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) for 2016-31)

LSA and LMP Background
 Ministry Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries (MALF)
and the International Livestock Research Institute
(ILRI) used the Livestock Sector Investment and
Policy Toolkit (LSIPT) - bio-economical simulation
models - to assess the current state of livestock
development in Tanzania.
 Model used to assess the potential impact over 15–
20 years of proposed combined technology and
policy interventions, referred to as the livestock
sector analysis (LSA).
 Livestock Masterplan for 2017-22 developed

LSA Results: 3 Key Commodity Value Chains and Cross-
cutting Activities for Transformation
Analysis of the three major livestock
commodities which can potentially contribute to
economic growth through industrialization:
 Dairy
 Red meat (from cattle, sheep, and goats)
 White meat (chicken & pigs)
All commodities showed positive returns to
investments and profitability

Red Meat Scenario
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1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2016 2021 2026 2031
Red Meat
Demand Supply with current investment
Supply with additional investment

White Meat Scenario
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2016 2021 2026 2031
White meat
Demand Supply with current investment
Supply with additional investment

All Meat Scenario with Additional
Investment in Red and White Meat
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2016 2021 2026 2031
All meat
Demand Supply with current investment
Supply with additional investment

Currently (2015/16) there are 25 meat processing plants. There
is a need to construct additional meat processing plants to meet
the expected supply;
 Extra capacity for 5000 sheep and 900 cattle per day
Red meat industries and relevant policies

Red meat industries and relevant policies.
 Government implementation and oversight of
international sanitary standards to promote red
meat trade
 Implementation of practical and affordable systems
of animal ID and traceability
 Regulations to ensure food safety and animal
health through monitoring of abattoirs and disease
surveillance

Red meat product (Leather)
• Large animal population offers opportunities in processing of
hides and skins - 2.8 million hides and 2.1 million skins
annually.
• Only 40% of the installed capacity was used. Therefore
Tanzania have huge stock of raw materials for leather
industries, which will potentially contribute to sector and
economic growth.
• Utilisation of processing capacities and construction of two (2)
new semi-processing and finished leather products processing
plants in five years is recommended.

Milk Gap Projection and Investment
Scenario Results
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2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2016 2021 2026 2031
Milk
Demand Supply with current investment
Supply with additional investment

Milk industries and relevant policies
 Investment in milk processing by the private sector
 Now there are 74 dairy plants operating at 30% capacity which
produce mainly short shelf life products like pasteurized and
fermented milk, yoghurt, etc.
 Investment Long Shelf Life dairy product processing needs to be
undertaken especially during the rainy season or flush periods of
high milk supply
 The key policy changes needed are incentives to increase
investment in milk processing and milk quality standards
enforcement

Examples of ongoing ILRI and partner efforts
in Tanzania
Increasing Productivity
African Chicken Genetic Gains (ACGG)
African Dairy Genetic Gains (ADGG)
East Coast Fever – scaling out
vaccination
Value Chain Development
East Africa Dairy Development Project
MilkIT
Maziwa Zaidi (MoreMilk)
Policy
Livestock Masterplan
Dairy Development Forum
Sustainable Rangeland Management
Project
Environment
Greening Livestock

Example of acting together:
Tanzania Dairy Development Forum

Example of acting together:
Tanzania Dairy Development Forum
• Acting together catalyze
innovation and transform
smallholder systems to
meet growing demand
• If we don’t act soon,
importers will.
Key actors

Sustainable Rangeland Management
Project
• Implemented by ILRI with the MOLF, National Land Use Planning
Commission, regional and district governments, local NGOs and
communities (funded by IFAD and Irish Aid).
• Scaling up joint village land use planning and mapping livestock
routes

• Trends show global and Africa’s
livestock industry is growing rapidly
• Significant opportunities exist for
Tanzania’s livestock sector
• More investments in research and
development are required to
address challenges and take
successes to scale
• Acting now, together and
coherently, Tanzania can unleash its
huge potential to become a leader
in livestock production in Africa
Key messages

This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.
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ILRI thanks all donors and organizations who globally supported its work through their contributions
to the CGIAR system