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The changing livestock sector in developing countries: the
context for animal genetic research
Shirley Tarawali
Animal Gen...
Key messages
•
Demand for animal source foods is increasing rapidly - almost
all the increase is in developing countries
•...
Animal source foods: 4 of 5 highest value global commodities
FAOSTAT 2015
(values for 2013)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
1...
Drivers of change: population
Anticipated change 2013 – 2050
Asia: +20%
Africa: +113%
Europe: -4%
2015 GDP growth forecast
Percentage urban, 2014
Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Millionmetrictonnes
% growth in demand for livestock
products
2000 - 2030
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Pork
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Poultry
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Milk
...
The challenge: Is attaining global food security and
sustainable food production possible?
How will the world feed itself ...
Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today
Chronic disease
likely to cost $35
trillion by 2030
11% of GNP lost
annua...
Food insecurity and under nutrition remain
persistent
• 72 developing countries have reached the
2015 MDG 1 target of halv...
As much as half of the agricultural GHG emissions
come from animals
GHG per kg of animal protein produced varies
hugely: B...
What’s special about animal/smallholder food?
•
90% of animal products are
produced and consumed in the
same country or re...
Various sources:
BMGF, FAO and ILRI
Smallholders still dominate
livestock production in many countries
Region
(definition ...
Demand for livestock commodities in developing
economies will be met – the only question is how
Scenario #1
Meeting livest...
Sustainable animal food systems
are a must
•
Productivity and efficiency:
– Sufficient food with lower
environmental foot ...
Replacing the 90% of locally produced animal
commodities is not feasible
•
Economically
•
Africa’s food import bill (2013)...
Research for development solutions
•
Food & nutritional
security
•
Poverty eradication
•
Environment &
human health
Polici...
Livestock genetics in the midst of
this complexity
Improved
genetics
Improved
productivity
Lower disease
risk
Reduced
emis...
Using production from different genotypes
and production systems to assess gaps
A
A
A
A
B = reproduction
only
C = health
o...
Using productivity data combined
with modelling to assess gaps
Gains from dairy technology interventions:
Value of change ...
The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given ...
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The changing livestock sector in developing countries: The context for animal genetic research

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Presented by Shirley Tarawali at the Workshop on Animal Genetic Research for Africa (Biosciences for Farming in Africa), Nairobi, 10-11 September 2015

Published in: Science
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The changing livestock sector in developing countries: The context for animal genetic research

  1. 1. The changing livestock sector in developing countries: the context for animal genetic research Shirley Tarawali Animal Genetic Research for Africa (Biosciences for Farming in Africa), Nairobi, 10-11 September 2015
  2. 2. Key messages • Demand for animal source foods is increasing rapidly - almost all the increase is in developing countries • Despite this, food and nutritional challenges remain • Human health and environmental challenges associated with animal source foods important • Much animal protein is produced by smallholders in developing countries • Opportunities for research in general, animal genetics in particular to contribute to sustainable, positive transitions
  3. 3. Animal source foods: 4 of 5 highest value global commodities FAOSTAT 2015 (values for 2013) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Net production value (Int $) billion Production(MT)millions Cow milk has overtaken rice
  4. 4. Drivers of change: population Anticipated change 2013 – 2050 Asia: +20% Africa: +113% Europe: -4%
  5. 5. 2015 GDP growth forecast
  6. 6. Percentage urban, 2014
  7. 7. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries are outpacing those of developed 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Millionmetrictonnes
  8. 8. % growth in demand for livestock products 2000 - 2030 8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Pork 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Poultry 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Milk FAO, 2011 Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030
  9. 9. The challenge: Is attaining global food security and sustainable food production possible? How will the world feed itself sustainably by the time the population stabilizes about 2050? • 60% more food than is produced now will be needed • 75% of this must come from producing more food from the same amount of land • The higher production must be achieved while reducing poverty and addressing environmental, social and health concerns • This greater production will have to be achieved with temperatures that may be 2−4 degrees warmer than today’s • Demand for animal source foods rising fastest
  10. 10. Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today Chronic disease likely to cost $35 trillion by 2030 11% of GNP lost annually in Africa and Asia from poor nutrition
  11. 11. Food insecurity and under nutrition remain persistent • 72 developing countries have reached the 2015 MDG 1 target of halving the proportion of hungry people • Hunger remains an everyday challenge for • almost 795 million people worldwide, including 780 million in developing regions 2014-2016
  12. 12. As much as half of the agricultural GHG emissions come from animals GHG per kg of animal protein produced varies hugely: Big opportunities to mitigate Herrero et al. 2013
  13. 13. What’s special about animal/smallholder food? • 90% of animal products are produced and consumed in the same country or region • Most are produced by smallholders • Over 70% of livestock products are sold ‘informally’ • 500 million smallholders produce 80% of the developing world’s food • 43% of the agricultural workforce is female
  14. 14. Various sources: BMGF, FAO and ILRI Smallholders still dominate livestock production in many countries Region (definition of ‘smallholder’) % production by smallholder livestock farms Beef Chicken meat Sheep/goa t meat Milk Pork Eggs East Africa (≤ 6 milking animals) 60-90 Bangladesh (< 3ha land) 65 77 78 65 77 India (< 2ha land) 75 92 92 69 71 Vietnam (small scale) 80 Philippines (backyard) 50 35
  15. 15. Demand for livestock commodities in developing economies will be met – the only question is how Scenario #1 Meeting livestock demand by importing livestock products Scenario #2 Meeting livestock demand by importing livestock industrial production know-how Scenario #3 Meeting livestock demand by transforming smallholder livestock systems
  16. 16. Sustainable animal food systems are a must • Productivity and efficiency: – Sufficient food with lower environmental foot print: Animal health, genetics, feeding • Animal source foods: – Safe, not wasted and consumed in appropriate quantities • Emerging challenges: – Zoonotic diseases – Anti-Microbial Resistance
  17. 17. Replacing the 90% of locally produced animal commodities is not feasible • Economically • Africa’s food import bill (2013): US $ 44 billion • About one fifth is livestock (highest after cereals): • Meat: US $ 5 billion; Milk: US $ 4 billion • Business as usual: the import bill doubles • Or for livelihoods • Almost 1 billion rely on livestock for livelihoods • 43% of the agricultural workforce is female
  18. 18. Research for development solutions • Food & nutritional security • Poverty eradication • Environment & human health Policies, institutions and markets Sustainable livestock systems Feed resources Animal genetics and breeding Livestock healthCapacity development
  19. 19. Livestock genetics in the midst of this complexity Improved genetics Improved productivity Lower disease risk Reduced emissions intensity Less zoonoses Respond to new challenges Direct: climate; markets; ……… Indirect: vectors – disease…….. Targeting: by system; commodity Delivery and ‘maintenance’ Information
  20. 20. Using production from different genotypes and production systems to assess gaps A A A A B = reproduction only C = health only B C Effects of different management strategies on the increase in value of annualized milk off-take
  21. 21. Using productivity data combined with modelling to assess gaps Gains from dairy technology interventions: Value of change in milk yields only
  22. 22. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI. better lives through livestock ilri.org

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