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Transforming dairy value chains

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Transforming dairy value chains

  1. 1. Transforming dairy value chains Jimmy Smith Director General, International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya AGRF (African Green Revolution Forum), Nairobi, 8 September 2016 African Green Revolution Forum_,
  2. 2. By 2050 the world will consume 1 billion tonnes of dairy/year Demand in Africa, especially E.Africa triples Meeting demand through importation is bad news - For foreign exchange bill - For employment - And livelihoods 0 10000 20000 30000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Value of milk imports USD million Sub Saharan Africa Kenya: About 400,000 jobs in dairy (2004) 70% milk from smallholders, sold informally Combining policy, technology, institutions and market research solutions: More milk, higher quality milk More jobs in milk production and marketing Ready to scale in SSA Over 10 million households Investments: development banks; governments AND Research: Technical backstopping Tailoring and targeting solutions (highlands; peri-urban) In Kenya: benefits for small-‐scale producers, traders and consumers over USD33 million a year. Baseline over 1997-2039 NPV: USD 230 million; IRR 55%
  3. 3. Milk demand and consumption levels differ in developed and developing countries 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2005/07 2050 Demand for milk million t/annum Developing Developed 0 50 100 150 200 250 2005/07 2050 Milk consumption kg/capita/annum Developed Developing recommended
  4. 4. Consumption of livestock products to 2050 • Globally: An overall increase in per capita daily consumption of livestock products of 37% compared to 2000 • Commodities differ: – A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption – A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption • Regions differ: – In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC – In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC Herrero et al. 2014
  5. 5. % increase in production of livestock products: 2000–2050 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Raw milk Monogastric meat & eggs Ruminant meat Europe Latin America Africa/Middle East % Herrero et al. 2014
  6. 6. BMGF, FAO, ILRI Smallholders still dominate livestock production in many countries Region (definition of ‘smallholder’) % production by smallholder livestock farms Beef Chicken meat Sheep/goat meat Milk Pork Eggs East Africa (≤ 6 milking animals) 60-90 Bangladesh (< 3ha land) 65 77 78 65 77 India (< 2ha land) 75 92 92 69 71 Vietnam (small scale) 80 Philippines (backyard) 50 35
  7. 7. Ruminant production systems • Mixed systems are an important source of ruminant meat in 2000 and 2050 – Europe: 42% mixed temperate – Latin America: 48% mixed humid – Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid • For milk: – Over 50% of milk comes from mixed systems, regardless of the region – Big increases in milk production by 2050 continue to be in mixed systems, especially in Africa and the Middle East
  8. 8. Smallholder mixed crop-livestock keepers are competitive East African dairy • 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd • Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers • Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers have same levels of efficiency and profits Vietnam pig industry • 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals • Pig producers with 1-2 sows have lower unit costs than those with more than 4 sows • Industrial pig production could grow to meet no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years • Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012
  9. 9. Demand for milk imports – growing fastest in SSA 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 S.Asia SE. Asia SSA S.America High income
  10. 10. Steinfeld et al. 2006 Big productivity gaps, largely due to poor animal health, persist between rich and poor countries Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk
  11. 11. This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence. better lives through livestock ilri.org

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