Evolution of animal production in africa and other emerging markets

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Presented by Danilo Pezo at the Africa Livestock Conference and Exhibition (ALICE), Kampala, Uganda, 28–30 June 2014

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  • Nice presentation. However please note that mortality from PPR in goats and sheep in India is shown 'Zero', which is incorrect!
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Evolution of animal production in africa and other emerging markets

  1. 1. Evolution of animal production in Africa and other emerging markets Danilo Pezo ILRI Country Representative in Uganda African Livestock Conference and Exhibition (ALICE 2014) Kampala, Uganda, 18th - 20th June 2014
  2. 2. Animal agriculture to 2050: TRENDS GLOBAL TRENDS: The Livestock Revolution • Livestock demand and production are increasing rapidly in developing countries, and will continue to rise • Where and how most livestock commodities are produced, sold and consumed is changing significantly
  3. 3. Consumption of livestock products to 2050 • Globally: An overall increase in per capita daily consumption of livestock products of 37% compared to 2000 • Commodities differ: – A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption – A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption • Regions differ: – In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC – In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC Herrero et al. 2014
  4. 4. % change in consumption of animal products: 2000–2030 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry meat Eggs China Russia Brazil India SSA High income 843% % FAO 2011
  5. 5. Projections of livestock production increases: 2000–2050 • In half a century, total livestock commodity production is projected to increase by 92%: +106% for monogastric meat (pig and poultry) and poultry eggs +88% for ruminant meat (cow, sheep, goat, camel, water buffalo) +85% for milk • With big regional differences Herrero et al. 2014
  6. 6. % change in production of animal products: 2000–2030 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry meat Eggs China Russia Brazil India SSA High income % FAO 2011
  7. 7. Import and export of meat (000s metric tonnes) -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 SSA India Brazil Russia China ExportImport Beef Pork Poultry FAPRI 2012
  8. 8. 8 Production Systems
  9. 9. Monogastric production systems in Africa are in rapid transition to industrial 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 smallholder industrial Europe Latin America Africa/Middle East Herrero et al. 2014 Over 30% of African monogastric production will still be smallholder in 2050
  10. 10. Ruminant production systems  Mixed systems are an important source of ruminant meat o Europe: 42% mixed temperate o Latin America: 48% mixed humid o Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid  For milk: o Over 50% of milk comes from mixed systems, regardless of the region o Big increases in milk production by 2050 continue to be in mixed systems, especially in Africa and the Middle East
  11. 11. Smallholder mixed crop-livestock keepers are competitive East African dairy • 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd • Efficient use of forages results in lower milk production costs • Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers have same levels of efficiency and profits Ugandan pig systems • 90% of production in hands of smallholders (< 3 sows or <5 fattening pigs) • Smallholders have lower unit costs • Industrial pig production highly dependent on mixed feeds. • Great opportunities for productivity increases, if diseases (i.e., ASF, parasites) are controlled, and farmers have better access to information. • High demand for pork, and still increasing IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2013
  12. 12. Trajectories of growth for the livestock sector Strong growth Intensifying and increasingly market oriented often transforming smallholder systems Fragile growth Where remoteness, marginal land resources or agro climatic vulnerability restrict intensification High growth with externalities Intensified livestock systems with diverse challenges including the environment and human health
  13. 13. Policies Animal health ★Vaccines ★Diagnostics ★Delivery systems Markets & institutions ★New business arrangements ★Good access to markets Human H & N ★Risk- not rule-based regulations ★Controlled zoonoses ★Balanced diets Environment ★Improved feed efficiency = < GHGE ★Waste management Feed ★Judicious biomass use ★Improved feeds/feed strategies ★Viable feed markets Genetics ★Improved local breeds ★Breeds well-matched to environments Trajectories of growth for the livestock sector
  14. 14. • Animal diseases results in low productivity, high mortality rates, consequently are responsible for important economic losses • As livestock systems intensify in developing countries, diseases may increase • Zoonotic diseases kill 2.2 million each year and sickens 2.4 billion Young Adult Cattle 22% 6% Shoat 28% 11% Poultry 70% 30% Otte & Chilonda IAEA Annual mortality of African livestock (About half due to preventable or curable diseases) Animal diseases: a key constraint in Africa
  15. 15. Annual losses from selected diseases: Africa and South Asia BMGF 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Billion$lostyearly South Asia Africa Africa South Asia
  16. 16. Animal health markets: Opportunities in developing countries • Proper delivery systems for smallholder farmers (i.e., vaccination, technical assistance, etc.) • Simple biosecurity measures • Quality assurance for veterinary medicines • Appropriate packaging/marketing (e.g., drugs in smaller packages) • Surveillance for drug resistance
  17. 17. Animal feed markets: Trends in developing countries to 2030 • Use of crop residues is decreasing, but still comprises >50% of livestock diets in SSA and South Asia • Use of crop by-products (e.g., oilcakes) and concentrates is increasing, but remains <10%, except in India dairy (25%) • Use of planted forages is increasing • Use of compounded feeds bought from markets is increasing World Bank 2012
  18. 18. Animal feed markets: Opportunities in developing countries • Feed technologies – Food-feed crops – Proper management of forage resources, including fodder trees – Better use of available feeds – Via processing (chopping) – Feed mixtures (rations) – Strategic supplementation • Institutional and market issues • Feed regulatory policies
  19. 19. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI. better lives through livestock ilri.org Thank you!

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