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Global health and sustainable food security: Why the livestock sectors of developing countries matter

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Presented by Jimmy Smith at the Global Animal Health Conference on Developing Global Animal Health Products to Support Food Security and Sustainability, Arlington, Virginia, 17−18 October 2013

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Global health and sustainable food security: Why the livestock sectors of developing countries matter

  1. 1. Global health and sustainable food security Why the livestock sectors of developing countries matter Global Animal Health Conference Developing global animal health products to support food security and sustainability Arlington, Virginia, 17-18 October 2013 Jimmy Smith, Director General, ILRI
  2. 2. Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in the following slides are those of the individual presenter and should not be attributed to Drug Information Association, Inc. (‘DIA’), its directors, officers, employees, volunteers, members, chapters, councils, Special Interest Area Communities or affiliates, or any organization with which the presenter is employed or affiliated. These slides are the intellectual property of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). They are licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution-NoncommercialShare Alike 3.0 Unported Licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
  3. 3. Key messages 1 2 GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY Smallholder livestock systems contribute now and in the future GLOBAL LIVESTOCK MARKETS  Demand for livestock in developing countries is rising fast 3 4 GLOBAL ANIMAL HEALTH Global food security depends on better animal health GLOBAL ANIMAL HEALTH MARKETS Animal health markets are big markets in developing countries
  4. 4. Global Food Security
  5. 5. Food security and sustainability How will the world feed itself sustainably by the time the population stabilizes about 2050? • 60% more food than is produced now will be needed • 75% of this must come from productivity − not land − increases • The higher production must be achieved while reducing poverty and addressing environmental, social and health concerns • This greater production will have to be achieved in the face of temperatures 2−4 degrees warmer than today’s
  6. 6. Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today hungry people vulnerable to food insecurity inadequate diets overconsumers balanced diets Malnutrition is costly. FAO estimates the costs of malnutrition to be as high as US$3.5 trillion a year
  7. 7. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries outpace that of developed countries 300 Million metric tonnes 250 200 150 developing developed 100 50 0 1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 FAO 2006
  8. 8. Global food production: From where? Developing-country mixed crop-livestock systems, most of them smallholders, supply the large proportion of livestock products Herrero et al. 2009
  9. 9. Smallholder livestock keepers are competitive East African dairy • 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd • Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers • Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers have same levels of efficiency and profits Vietnam pig industry • 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals • Pig producers with 1-2 sows have lower unit costs than those with more than 4 sows • Industrial pig production could grow to meet no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years • Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012
  10. 10. Global Livestock Markets
  11. 11. 4 out of 5 of the highest value global commodities are livestock FAOSTAT 2013
  12. 12. Percentage increase in demand for livestock products 120 2000 to 2040 100 80 Meat Milk Eggs 60 40 20 0 Developing Countries Developed Countries Far higher growth in demand will occur in developing countries IFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model results
  13. 13. Global trade of livestock products (million tonnes, milk excluded) 14 12 10 8 1967 2007 6 4 2 0 pig meat beef eggs poultry meat sheep and goat meat Adapted from FAO 2012
  14. 14. Global trade of livestock products (million tonnes, milk included) 100 90 80 70 60 50 1967 2007 40 30 20 10 0 pig meat beef eggs milk poultry sheep meat and goat meat Adapted from FAO 2012
  15. 15. Global Animal Health
  16. 16. Smallholders can commercialize Smallholders can continue to most provide livestock products in most developing countries only if the following animal health problems are addressed: • Poor market access − Reduce food safety problems that reduce market participation by smallholders • Low productivity − Reduce endemic animal diseases that lower productivity • Zoonotic diseases − Lower zoonotic disease transmissions that threaten small-scale livestock producers in poor countries as well as human health in all countries
  17. 17. Food safety in developing countries • Most milk, meat and eggs are sold in informal markets • We need to manage the risks (of illness) while retaining the benefits (to livelihoods, food/nutrition security) of informally sold livestock foods • Perceptions can be misleading: e.g., handling cattle or drinking milk is as risky as eating vegetables Percent of milk marketed in informal markets Country Percent Kenya 86 Tanzania 95 Uganda 90 Rwanda 90 Ethiopia 95 Malawi 95 Zambia 90
  18. 18. Food safety in developing countries • Gender issues are important issues in food safety • Health advice is most useful when it is context-specific, based on evidence, and developed in and with local communities • Social incentives (‘good parents do x . . .’) and risk- rather than rule-based approaches work best • Relatively simple and cheap interventions can lead to substantial improvements in food safety
  19. 19. Innovations, incentives and institutions for managing food-borne diseases • Develop and test technologies • Train, brand and certify informal actors • Development local capacity Novel lateral flow assays for cysticercosis Women butchers sell safer meat than men
  20. 20. Big productivity gaps, largely due to poor animal health, persist between rich and poor countries Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk Steinfeld et al. 2006
  21. 21. Annual losses from selected diseases – Africa and South Asia 8 7 Billion $ lost yearly 6 Africa South Asia 5 4 South Asia 3 Africa 2 1 0 Estimates from BMGF
  22. 22. Animal disease is a key constraint in Africa • Animal disease is a key constraint: Remove it and animal productivity increases greatly • As livestock systems intensify in developing countries, diseases may increase Annual mortality of African livestock (About half due to preventable or curable diseases) Young Adult Cattle 22% 6% Shoat 28% 11% Poultry 70% 30% Otte & Chilonda, IAEA
  23. 23. A deadly dozen zoonotic diseases each year kill 2.2 million people and sicken 2.4 billion Annual deaths from all zoonoses Annual deaths from single-agent zoonoses 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Almost all losses are in developing countries
  24. 24. Greatest burden of zoonoses falls on one billion poor livestock keepers Map by ILRI, from original in a report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
  25. 25. Emerging zoonotic disease events, 1940−2012 Map by IOZ, published in an ILRI report to DFID: Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, 2012
  26. 26. Costs of emerging zoonotic disease outbreaks (US$ billion) Period Cost (conservative estimates) 1998−2009 38.7 2002−2004 41.5 1998−2009 80.2 6 outbreaks excluding SARS − Nipah virus (Malaysia) − West Nile fever (USA) − HPAI (Asia, Europe) − BSE (US) − Rift Valley fever (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia) − BSE (UK) costs 1997−09 only SARS Total over 12 years Giving an annual average of US$6.7 billion World Bank 2012
  27. 27. African swine fever threatens US$150-billion global pig industry 2007 199 8
  28. 28. Global Animal Health Markets
  29. 29. Animal health markets in developing countries: Significant and growing • Global animal health = multi-billion-dollar industry • Global human health market = $1,000 billion • Global animal health market (livestock + pet + other) = $20 billion • Global livestock health market = $13 billion • Africa and South Asia = $0.5 billion • Market shares = drugs 63%, vaccines 25%, feeds 15% • Africa = +15.7% year-on-year growth (2nd after Latin America)
  30. 30. Animal health markets: Where is the demand? 15 countries make up more than 85% of the global animal health market: • Europe: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK • Asia: Japan, China, India, Korea • Americas: Canada, USA, Brazil, Mexico • Oceania: Australia Developing and emerging countries are increasingly important
  31. 31. Animal health markets: India • 500 million livestock, 1 billion poultry • Livestock sector is 2nd-largest contributor to GDP (6%) • World’s biggest dairy producer • Animal health market annual growth over 8% • Worth $370 million in 2008: 52% cattle, 38% poultry
  32. 32. Animal health markets: Opportunities in developing countries • Appropriate packaging/marketing (e.g., drugs in smaller packages) • Delivery systems for small farms • Surveillance for drug resistance • ‘One Health’ approaches and ‘Rational Drug Use’ for both people and animals • ‘Game-changing products’: e.g., vaccines for Newcastle disease and East Coast fever • Quality assurance for veterinary medicines
  33. 33. Key messages 1 2 GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY Smallholder livestock systems contribute now and in the future GLOBAL LIVESTOCK MARKETS  Demand for livestock in developing countries is rising fast 3 4 GLOBAL ANIMAL HEALTH Global food security depends on better animal health GLOBAL ANIMAL HEALTH MARKETS Animal health markets are big markets in developing countries
  34. 34. Last words The risks of ignoring pressing animal health issues in the developing world are huge: − Lost livelihoods and food in developing countries − Reduced global food security − Impaired human health in all countries The opportunities for improving animal health in developing countries are just as big: − A significant and rapidly growing market achieved with appropriate approaches
  35. 35. Better lives through livestock ilri.org The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.

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