5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. Developing a Continental Potential
Conflict Landscape for Establishing
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Response Context:
Case Study Africa
Timothy L. Haithcoat
Geographic Resources Center, University of Missouri, USA
Erik Mueller
Department of Geography, University of Missouri, USA

2. Conflict is a natural and typical
phenomenon in every type of human
relationships, at every level
• People get involved in conflicts because their interests or their values are
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
challenged, or because their needs are not met.
• There are several basic human needs that are typically met
– Food
– Water
– Shelter
Intra-personal, local,
intra-state, inter-state,
global
Ayse Kudar, Social Assessment, Seminar presentation on conflict, 2002

3. Conflict is a natural and typical
phenomenon in every type of human
relationships, at every level
• People get involved in conflicts because their interests or their values are
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
challenged, or because their needs are not met.
• There are several basic human needs that are typically met
– Food
– Water
– Shelter
• There are several basic human needs that are especially pertinent to
conflict and conflict mitigation:
– Recognition
– Development (and self-actualization)
– Security
– Identity
– Community
Intra-personal, local,
intra-state, inter-state,
global
Ayse Kudar, Social Assessment, Seminar presentation on conflict, 2002

4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Major Proposition of Conflict Theories
• Society is not a system in equilibrium but a nebulous structure of
imperfectly coordinated elements
• Change and conflict are continuous and normal; inherent
predispositions to change vary in scope, nature, intensity and
degree
• Every society, at every moment, experiences social conflict
• Every element within a society contributes to its change
• Every society rests on constrain of some of its members by others
• Social universe is the setting within which the conflict of life are
acted out
Ayse Kudar, Social Assessment, Seminar presentation on conflict, 2002

5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
http://www.systemicpeace.org/conflicttrends.html

6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
http://www.systemicpeace.org/warlist.htm

8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
CONFLICT
The propensity of any two groups to have
conflict increases as social differences between
them (in language, religion, race, ethnicity, and
cultural style) increase
Ayse Kudar, Social Assessment, Seminar presentation on conflict, 2002

10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Grain Size of Analysis
• Wanted a global model
• Needed a data construct / cataloging unit
• Created a Hexagon tessellation

11. Types of Conflict Evaluated
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
ACLED Database
• Armed Conflict Location & Event Data
• 1997 through 2013 – 17 years
• Split into 4 year increments for model development and
subsequent testing and refinement

12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
VIOLENCE
• Direct violence --killing and beating--happens in
interpersonal and inter-group situation
• Structural violence--poverty, hunger, repression and social
alienation--is associated with uneven life chances and is
built into most society
– Oppression and discrimination are symptoms of structural
violence
– Absence of direct violence is no guarantee for the lack of
structural violence; not all forms of structural violence lead to
direct violence
Ayse Kudar, Social Assessment, Seminar presentation on conflict, 2002

13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Case Study - Africa
Africa chosen: Available data for entire continent
Including:
Base Layers Derived Layers Validation
Land cover Roughness ACLED
Roads Accessibility
Ethnicity Isolation
Boundaries Opportunity
Population Quality of Life
Elevation Persecution
Resources Water
Hydrology English
Languages Development

14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Road Density

15. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Ethnicity

16. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Language

17. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Geospatial Tools
• Topological Overlay: Identity; Union
• Network Analysis
• Interpolation
• Zonal Statistics
• Cross Tabulate
• Point Density; Line Density

18. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
……
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Cross Tabulate- Land Cover
……
……

19. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Zonal Statistics - Elevation
……
……
……

20. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Conflict Landscape Beta1

21. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
ACLID Database

22. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Conflict Landscape B1-ACLID

23. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaster Risk Reduction
Research Gaps:
1) The need to initiate ongoing monitoring of the socio-cultural
parameters / dynamics to track areas of conflict concern.
2) The development of an understanding of the socio-cultural
context of the risk both in terms of the geophysical but also
the geopolitical
3) The development, integration, and use of geospatial models
and geostatistics to support decision making.
– In developing this understanding it is critical to gain perspective and
insight on model interactions through sensitivity analysis and the
understanding of error and its possible cascading effects.

24. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaster Risk Reduction
Education & Training:
It is critically important to systematically integrate:
1. Geospatial modelling and visualization within the education,
training and exercising environments to strengthen their
analytical capacity
2. Conflict and socio-cultural analysis into disaster management
and risk assessment
This will develop the skills and understanding of both geospatial and
socio-cultural data and its proper use to support decisions. This includes
the visualization of confidence in the resulting decision based on the
inputs used.

25. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaster Risk Reduction
Implementation & Training:
• Consideration of conflict reduction strategies for
countries with a high propensity for conflict
• Give water conflicts renewed operational focus
• Complement analyses of “vulnerable groups” with
“conflict groups”; introduce less static concepts to social
group analyses to include social, cultural, ethnic and
other cohesive groups
• Re-evaluate social dynamics of “border” issues and
ethnicity
• Re-assess role of cultural factors, especially religion, in
plans and implementations

26. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaster Risk Reduction
Policy:
In developing a more complete understanding of both the
physical and socio-cultural context a policy dialogue can
occur.
A statement can be developed to ensure that the socio-cultural
context (and its associated cascading ramifications)
are incorporated into the initial disaster response,
mitigation, and rebuilding plans so that stability (resiliency)
can be truly achieved and maintained.

27. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
A final activity to be focused on?
The concept of
disaster risk
modeling should
be incorporated
into the stability
/ fragility indices
used by others to
assess a state’s
resiliency.