5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. Optimizing ecosystem services to
reduce hydrological and ecological risks
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Derek Vollmer, ETH Zürich, Switzerland
Didit Okta Pribadi, TU München, Germany
Federica Remondi, ETH Zürich, Switzerland
Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, ETH Zürich, Switzerland
Ernan Rustiadi, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia

2. Rapid urbanization in metropolitan Jakarta
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
• Jakarta’s urban footprint has
expanded significantly since
the early 1970s
• Urban population grew at >4%
annually from 1970-2010
• GDP growth for the region
averaged 6% over same period
• Massive shift in land cover
– Forest: -71%
– Agriculture: -16%*
– Settlement: +2290%
• Projected population growth
of ~2% and GDP growth of 5-
7% per year to 2030

3. Relevance of regional ecosystem services
• Despite being heavily urbanized, the greater metropolitan area still
offers substantial ecosystem services that could be lost, or
enhanced, depending on the future course of land development
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
• Flood mitigation offers one example of a service that has
diminished, as forests are cleared and agricultural land is converted
to settlement area
• We identify eight services as being regionally significant:
Flood mitigation
Erosion prevention
Groundwater supply
Agricultural production
Tourism/recreation
Biodiversity
Forest products
Urban land

4. Inputs, outputs, work steps in ES optimization
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Extreme land use scenarios for 2030

6. Baseline and future range for regional ES
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
SERVICE METRIC BASELINE
(2012)
FUTURE RANGE
(2030)
Agricultural
production
Hectares of productive agricultural land 241,074 38,974 - 189,963
Biodiversity Habitat Quality Index 0.418 0.269 – 0.557
Erosion prevention Hectares losing >300 T soil per year 18,390 15,308 – 3,850
Flood mitigation Percent change in peak flow -- +26 to -4
Forest products
Hectares of land set aside for
production and plantation forests
32,423 10,428 – 22,307
Groundwater supply Recharge potential enhancement index 0.380 0.377 – 0.382
Recreation & cultural
amenity
Recreation Potential Index 0.158 0.090 – 0.178
Settlement (carrier) Square kilometers of settlement land 2,092 2,582 – 4,523

7. Erosion: estimated tonnes of sediment lost per year
BAU CUR SI
Bekasi
8.18 mn
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
Bekasi
6.42 mn
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
Bekasi
4.06 mn
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Cimanceuri
0.92 mn
Cisadane
14.03 mn
Ciliwung
2.83 mn
Cimanceuri
1.27 mn
Cisadane
11.14 mn
Ciliwung
2.49 mn
Cimanceuri
0.54 mn
Cisadane
3.28 mn
Ciliwung
0.80 mn

8. Peak flow estimates across the three scenarios
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

9. Detailed estimates for downstream outlet in Jakarta
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
>20% increase in peak flow for
BAU 2030 when compared to
2007 flood event

10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Quantifying the risk to regional ES
Transition probability ES Abundance ES risk
0 0.99 Low High Low High
Modeled as part of extreme
scenario development
Summing of unweighted,
normalized scores (0-100)
for each modeled ES
Unitless score used to
identify relative risk of
ES loss

11. Engaging stakeholders in weighting their preferences for
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
regional ecosystem services

12. Optimization process and sample outputs
Selection frequency
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
1000
0
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• Stakeholders’ preferences can be used to identify
the proportional targets in an ES portfolio
• Targets can focus on ES directly, or on ES at
highest risk
• Measure of cost used as
constraint in objective function
• Areas prioritized based on their
ability to satisfy objective

13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Efficiency of sector-based strategies

14. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaster Risk Reduction
• How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo
Framework for Action:
– We have developed a framework for identifying and assessing medium-term
risks to declines in ecosystem services (PA 2).
– This framework incorporates a range of knowledge that, when compiled,
provides insights into regional vulnerabilities (PA 3).
– Our emphasis on land use change helps stakeholders understand the main
underlying cause of ecosystem service decline and the corresponding risks
to human wellbeing (PA 4).
• From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further
steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction in
– Research: Deeper consideration of regional land use change as an
underlying factor
– Implementation & Practice: Collaborative regional approaches that discuss
tradeoffs and attempt to identify synergies with regards to land-based risk
reduction