IDRC14-ppp-Pablo Fdez-Arroyabe

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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IDRC14-ppp-Pablo Fdez-Arroyabe

  1. 1. Atmospheric determinants of health risks and customized early 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org warning systems FERNANDEZ DE ARROYABE, Pablo University of Cantabria, Spain Vice-president International Society of Biometeorology (ISB)
  2. 2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org INDEX • 1 - BIOMETEOROLOGY (ISB) • 2 - ATMOSPHERIC-RELATED HEALTH RISKS • 2.1 Atmosphere as a threat • 2.2 Strategies to keep alive • 3 – GLOBAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (EWS) • 3.1 EWS based on DOA Index • 3.2 EWS based on MC Index • 4 - CUSTOMIZED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS • 4.1 Biometeorological profiles • 4.2 Spatial component and new ICTs • 5 - CONCLUSIONS
  3. 3. Biometeorology is an interdisciplinary science studying the interactions between atmospheric processes and living organisms - plants, animals and humans. The ISB was founded on August 1956 with the aim of bringing together scientists from around the world who were working in the field of 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Biometeorology to exchange information and ideas
  4. 4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat WEATHER CONCEPTS CLIMATE
  5. 5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org CLIMATE CHANGE Modelling & Projections BIG UNCERTAINTIES EXTREM EVENTS Frequency and Intensity ------------------------------ RISK 1 NEW ENVIRONMENTS Emerging diseases ----------------------------- RISK 2 WEATHER VARIABILITY Forecasting LOW UNCERTAINTIES ANOMALOUS VARIABILITY but NOT Extreme ------------------------------------ RISK 3 2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat
  6. 6. 1.150 950 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat METEOROLOGICAL HOW DO WE PERCIVE THREATS? VARIABLES MORTALIDAD EN LA CAPV: AJUSTE POLINOMICO PERIODO 1986-2006 y = 0,0084x2 - 3,4835x + 1263,6 R2 = 0,8663 750 1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361 DIAS JULIANOS NUMERO DE FALLECIMIENTOS
  7. 7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat
  8. 8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat
  9. 9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat 1. Gil Romea I, Moreno Mirallas MJ. Lesiones por frío. Arch Cir Gen Dig, 2000 Sep 5. 2. Jehle D, Moscati R. The incidente of spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage with change in barometric pressure. Am J EmergMed 1994 Jan; 12 (1): 90-1. 3. Landers AT, Narotam PK. The effect of changes in barometric pressure on the risk of rupture of intracranial aneurysms. Br J Neurosurgery 1997 Jun; 11(3): 191-5.
  10. 10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat
  11. 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat
  12. 12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat
  13. 13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat
  14. 14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2.2 Biometeorological concept of health Aptitude of human beings to conciliate their vital functions with climatic and meteorological variability and change, without compromising people´s well-being. (Fdez-Arróyabe, 2012) Atmospheric change STRESS People start different strategies to get over the negative stress and preserve HEALTH ------------------ Human being is constantly suffering HEALTH CRISIS
  15. 15. STRATEGIES TO PRESERVE HEALTH = RESILIENCE 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2.2 Biometeorological concept of health • Thermoregulation, as a process associated to the hypothalamus functions and to homeostatic processes that affect human body at a microbiological level and takes places in short periods of time. • Acclimatization, as a group of compensative changes that occur in the organism due to multiple natural deviations of our environment because of seasonality or geographical reasons. It is a gradual answered, in a short/medium period of time, that starts when one person is continuously exposed to a new environmental context. • Adaptation as a biological procedure, understood as the result of a natural selection process that takes place in a long period of time in order to increase the survival changes of species. • Adaptation as a cultural, infrastructural and technological process (Burton et al. 2009). It is here where the development and complexity of social systems represents a new challenge for the scientific study of the interactions between natural and artificial atmospheric conditions and humans health. • Migration Avoiding the impact
  16. 16. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 BIO-MET PROFILE ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2 - Atmospheric-related health risks PLACE ON THE EARTH METEORO-SENSITIVITY HAZARD EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY RESILIANCE ATMOSPHERIC VARIABLES
  17. 17. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 3.1 EWS based on DOA Index DOA INDEX
  18. 18. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 3.1 EWS based on DOA Index
  19. 19. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 3.1 EWS based on DOA Index 2007, November 17th to 20th, Bilbao
  20. 20. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 3.2 INFLUENZA EWS based on MC Index SPANISH CLIMATIC REGIONS SPANISH INFLUENZA RATES
  21. 21. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 3.2 INFLUENZA EWS based on MC Index USING DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC CLASSIFICATIONS AND OTHER DEFINED CATALOGS INCREASING THE FREQUENCY OF DAILY WEATHER TYPE TO EVERY 6 HOURS WORKING BY CLIMATIC REGIONS APPLYING DIFERENT DELAYS FROM 2 TO 7 DAYS
  22. 22. Iberian Peninsula 2001-02 Iberian Peninsula 2004-05 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 3.2 INFLUENZA EWS based on MC Index
  23. 23. 3 - EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (PROBLEMS) 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 1. GLOBAL APPROACH BASED ON GLOBAL DATA 2. SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF METEOROLOGICAL DATA 3. VULNERABILITY IS NOT DEFINED AT PERSONAL LEVEL 4. EXPOUSURE IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE PEOPLE ARE GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION IS REQUIERED
  24. 24. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 4 - CUSTOMIZED WARNING SYSTEMS GPS GIS NEW PERSONALIZED WEATHER-RELATED HEALTH RISK SERVICES
  25. 25. 4 - CUSTOMIZED WARNING SYSTEMS 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org WATER SCARCITY ATMOSPHERIC HAZARDS HEALTH AGRICULTURE PRIORITY AREAS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE SERVICES ACCORDING TO THE GFCS
  26. 26. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 4 - CUSTOMIZED WARNING SYSTEMS
  27. 27. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 4 - CUSTOMIZED WARNING SYSTEMS USER REGISTER THROUGH THE APP PERSONALIZED LEVEL OF RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE WARNING SYSTEM TO IMPROVE THE SERVICES
  28. 28. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 5 - CONCLUSIONS • The definition and implementation of Weather-related Customized Early Warning Systems (CEWS) at an individual level should be developed based on ecological approaches and on the definition of biometeorological profiles. • A detailed meteorological forecasting is also needed to be able to run the service personally. • These personalized warning systems can easily be spread all over the world through the development of new Climate Services based on ICTs technologies such as WEB Services, GIS or APPs.
  29. 29. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION FERNANDHP@UNICAN.ES

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