Assessing Relocation Potential in 
Hurricane-Sandy Affected Coastal 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
Repetitive and permanent impacts… 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
MEDIATORS: 
‘Integrative Risk...
• Overconfidence in technology and engineering solutions 
• Unsustainable coastal land use patterns 
• Choosing only feel-...
• Relocation as adaptation strategy 
• Lack of political will/no incentives to pursue this option 
• No single governmenta...
• To identify areas where in situ adaptation may be ineffective 
• Inform policy and planning (land use, assistance…) 
• T...
Regional vulnerability to relocation 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Manageme...
Integration: what do people think??? 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Manageme...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
Would you currently consider a buyout program to 
move somewhere else in the future? 
5th International Disaster and Risk ...
If you would consider relocation, which of these 
options would you prefer? 
Other 
5% 
5th International Disaster and Ris...
• Spontaneous relocation is already happening under the radar 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk M...
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IDRC 2014 Bukvic presentation

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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IDRC 2014 Bukvic presentation

  1. 1. Assessing Relocation Potential in Hurricane-Sandy Affected Coastal 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Communities Anamaria Bukvic, Urban Affairs and Planning, Virginia Tech, USA
  2. 2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  3. 3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  4. 4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Should we stay or should we go now? Should we stay or should we go now? If we go there will be trouble An’ if we stay there will be double So come on and let us know Should we stay or should we go?
  5. 5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  6. 6. Repetitive and permanent impacts… 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 MEDIATORS: ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org OUTCOMES: Psycho-social and economic damages Indirect/secondary impacts Recovery progress… Should we stay or should we go now? Stress and trauma Personal circumstances Attitudes and perceptions
  7. 7. • Overconfidence in technology and engineering solutions • Unsustainable coastal land use patterns • Choosing only feel-good short-term adaptation options • Avoiding wicked problems until they escalate • Lack of accountability and inertia 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  8. 8. • Relocation as adaptation strategy • Lack of political will/no incentives to pursue this option • No single governmental agency has authority to relocate 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Sources: 1IAWG (2009); 2Kniveton (2008) ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org people (even if they want it)1 • There is no funding designated for the relocation1 • No framework for public participation in the process1 • Mobility management under humanitarian and federal authorities – assistance on responsive, short-term basis with short-term solutions2 Sources: 1IAWG (2009); 2Kniveton (2008)
  9. 9. • To identify areas where in situ adaptation may be ineffective • Inform policy and planning (land use, assistance…) • To alert stakeholders, make wiser investments • To explore opportunities and benefits • To develop relocation tools/policy in a bottom-up fashion • Perceptions differ – based on the experience and exposure • Many concerns: tax increases, FEMA maps, insurance, 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org repetitive damage, contradictory requirements… • To provide info proxy decision-support tools cannot
  10. 10. Regional vulnerability to relocation 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org STATE COUNTY Connecticut New Haven New Jersey Cumberland New Jersey Essex New Jersey Passaic Maryland Baltimore Maryland Dorchester New York Kings New York Queens Bukvic and Puckett (2013) Sandy high impact counties
  11. 11. Integration: what do people think??? 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org ?
  12. 12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Bukvic and Owen, 2013
  13. 13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org • Reasons prompting relocation – Storms, hurricanes, related flooding (32% most preferred) – Sea-level rise (44% somewhat preferred) – Neighbors, friends, and family moved somewhere else (51% least preferred) – Due to health and safety of myself and my family (73% most preferred) – Recommendations from the local government (50% least preferred) – Homeowners pay for property damage at their own cost (42% most preferred) • Preferred solutions – 1st levees/seawalls; 2nd natural barriers; 63% relocation less preferred – 75% the least preferred: Nothing, the event like this will not happen again anytime soon • Type of assistance – 48% Offer to purchase home at pre-storm value, I will do the rest Sources: 1IAWG (2009); 2Kniveton (2008)
  14. 14. Would you currently consider a buyout program to move somewhere else in the future? 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Yes 28% No 46% Cannot decide 5% Maybe in the future 21% Other 0%
  15. 15. If you would consider relocation, which of these options would you prefer? Other 5% 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Moving together as a community 8% Moving together with selected few friends 18% Moving together with others in the same interest group (church, ethnic…) 0% Moving independently - own my own 69%
  16. 16. • Spontaneous relocation is already happening under the radar 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org and should be acknowledged • The major shifts in attitudes and actions, as well as the ability to “think the unthinkable” needed • Policy and planning barriers to recovery and relocation should be identified and addressed • More research needed on when, why, how, where, and who of relocation. “If the state steps in to provide insurance to protect against CC driven storms, it will soon become clear that grandmothers in Albany are paying to insure the lifestyle choices of beachside condo-dwellers” – Chris Walker (Swiss Re/GBN)
  17. 17. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Thank you Questions • Comments: ana.bukvic@vt.edu Acknowledgements: Erin Puckett, Graham Owen, Yang Zhang, William Drake, Ning Wang, and Xinran Hu This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under grant no. EAR-1312813
  18. 18. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Disaster Risk Reduction • How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action: – Proposing a novel integrated assessment for evaluation of relocation potential in coastal communities – Facilitating engagement of disaster risk community in a dialogue on worst case scenario – when recovery is not possible – Emphasizing gap between actual risk and policy/planning responses in costal communities and developing strategies to bridge it • From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in – Research: integration, bridging disciplinary divide, communication – Education & Training: communicating science, consolidating rhetoric – Implementation & Practice: more user-friendly and straightforward – Policy: focus on benefits, development of decision-support tools

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