Marti and Sobradelo DAVOS 2014

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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Marti and Sobradelo DAVOS 2014

  1. 1. Designing probabilistc tools for multhazard assessment and risk 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org management Joan Mart, Rosa Sobradelo Insttute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera, CSIC, Barcelona, Spain. E-mail: joan.mart@ictja.csic.es
  2. 2. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org NATURAL DISASTERS VS MAN MADE DISASTERS
  3. 3. NATURE DOES NOT MAKE DISASTERS!!!!........ JUST TENDS TO KEEPT ITS EQUILIBRIUM 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  4. 4. ….....DISASTERS ARE MADE BY MAN WHEN HE DOES NOT PROPERLY ADDRESS RISK REDUCTION (RISK ASSESSMENT + VULNERABILITY REDUCTION + RESILIENCE INCREASE) 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  5. 5. ….....politicians usually say good words, but unfortunately they undertake poor and limited actions concerning risk reduction (it does not provide clear political benefits in the short term!). …..... what can be done from the scientific and technological side??? 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  6. 6. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  7. 7. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org The scientific contribution
  8. 8. THE COMPLEXITY OF NATURAL HAZARDS: CASCADING EVENTS LANDSLIDES 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org EARTHQUAKES FLOODS STORMS TSUNAMIS VOLCANOES
  9. 9. VOLCANOES: A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF MULTI-HAZARD AND CASCADING EVENTS AND EFFECTS FLOODS LANDSLIDES 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org EARTHQUAKES STORMS TSUNAMIS VOLCANOES (lava flows, PDC, fallout, lahars, ..)
  10. 10. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org PROBABILISTIC TOOLS: WHY, WHICH, AND HOW? - Probabilities are the best and most objective outcome for our forecasts on the occurrence and extend of natural events. The problem is to explain probabilities if the receiver is not numerically trained. Probabilities and uncertainties need to be explained in plain text not hidden behind sophisticated mathematical wording - The models to be develop should address risk assessment and mitigation actions (long and short term risk assessment, communication protocols, decision models, vulnerability analysis, resilience models). Science needs to convince decision makers that prevention is always cheaper and much more effective than reaction - Tools to be developed most be free of cost, based on open and free software, easy to use, of rapid applicability, clear and comprehensive, and honest in their objectives and potential applications and results
  11. 11. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org VVOOLLCCAANNICIC H HAAZZAARRDDSS
  12. 12. HASSET Probabilistic long and Short-term hazard Assessment (5 most probable scenarios) The scenario maker box 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org QVAST Susceptibility analysis (location and extent of the event) VORIS2 Event simulator (event scenarios and Hazards maps) VERDI Database (DEM, territorial data, Physical data, vulnerability data, etc) BADEMO Decision Model (cost/benefit analysis) VOLCDAM Vulnerability (damage) Analysis (structural damage, Health impact) IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS TO MINIMISE RISK
  13. 13. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  14. 14. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  15. 15. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  16. 16. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  17. 17. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  18. 18. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk Reducton How did your work support the implementaton of the Hyogo Framework for Acton: - Provides an easy to use methodology undertake volcanic hazard assessment, open to any potental user - Identfes that sequental steps necessary to undertake hazard (and risk) assessment as an efectve way to antcipate to volcanic events and to reduce volcanic risk - These methodology and tools are designed to help decision makers but also to facilitate comprehension of the phenomena to the other stakeholders From your perspectve what are the main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reducton in – Research: needs coordinaton, improvement and fnancial support – Educaton & Training: Needs to be generalised and extended to all societal levels (populaton, media, decision makers, scientsts, technicians, ...) – Implementaton & Practce: It is urgent to promote pilot implementaton actons worldwide – Policy: honest policy based on scientfc knowledge and societal needs
  19. 19. 5th Internatonal Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integratve Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practce‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org TANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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