Predicting SEO impact is impossible due to changing factors impacting search volume and CTR
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This document discusses the challenges of predicting the impact of SEO. It notes that predicting keyword volume and click-through rates is impossible due to constantly changing factors like news, user search behavior, and Google's algorithm. Specifically, it outlines how search volume can be impacted by external events and changes in how users search. Click-through rates are also difficult to predict due to variables like ad placements, device and location. The document concludes that while SEO metrics like rankings, traffic and conversions can be improved over time through testing and optimization, precisely predicting the impact of SEO is impossible given the many unknown variables that influence user behavior and search engine results.
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Predicting SEO impact is impossible due to changing factors impacting search volume and CTR
- 1. Predicting impact of SEO Wil Reynolds Associate @wilreynolds
- 3. 3 @wilreynolds Keyword Volume (x) Click Through Rate (x) Conversion Rate (x) Conversion Value ROI
- 4. @wilreynolds
- 5. @wilreynolds Keyword Volume + Cost
- 12. 12 @wilreynolds 33,000 Searches (x) 1.04 CTR @ #10 343.2 Visitors
- 13. 13 @wilreynolds 343.2 Visitors (x) .18% conv. rate (x) .62 Conversions
- 14. 14 @wilreynolds .62 Conversions/mo (x) 12 months 7.5 Conversions @ $150k = $1,125,000
- 17. @wilreynolds Problem, predicting search volume and CTR is impossible
- 18. @wilreynolds
- 19. 19 @wilreynolds #1 – Search Volume
- 20. @wilreynolds Impacted by News Fall out of Favor Change in how we search Google gets Smarter Google Changes Behavior
- 22. @wilreynolds Fall out of Favor
- 23. @wilreynolds Fall out of Favor
- 24. @wilreynolds Change in how we search
- 27. 27 @wilreynolds #2 – Click Through Rate
- 28. @wilreynolds Carousel Google’s Comparison Ads Mobile Changes PPC + SEO impacts CTR
- 30. @wilreynolds
- 31. @wilreynolds
- 32. @wilreynolds
- 33. @wilreynolds
- 34. @wilreynolds
- 35. @wilreynolds PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic
- 36. @wilreynolds PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic
- 37. 37 @wilreynolds “SEO CTR rises by 416% (brand) & rises by 125% (non-brand) When a PPC ad is also on the SERP” -SEER Study 2013
- 38. @wilreynolds Tale of 2 searches
- 40. 40 @wilreynolds 7 – Philly 2 – National 1 – Review 0 - Atlanta
- 41. 41 @wilreynolds Search #2 First search “Things to do in Atlanta” Second search “SEO Company”
- 43. @wilreynolds Amazon, Trusted + Prime
- 44. @wilreynolds Get more branded search? Probably get more rankings
- 45. 45 @wilreynolds Cut that TV campaign, rankings might slide…
- 46. @wilreynolds Mobile Search changes 1 – How we search 2 – What we see (vs Desktop)
- 47. @wilreynolds
- 49. @wilreynolds
- 50. @wilreynolds How confident are you NOW?
- 51. 51 @wilreynolds • Is the Map showing? & is it mobile vs desktop? • Is mobile growing more than desktop for that KW? • Is your PPC ad showing? • Is a Click to Call Ad showing on mobile? • Is that person in your circles? • Have they searched for a different city before? • Ranking is lower if site is improperly configured? • Did you get the person to visit from a “how much to save” query, which increased your rank later for certain people but not others? • Is your brand trusted in SERP, like Amazon/Zappos? • Have they been to your site before? • Are branded competitors moving up? • Is Google launching a test? • Where is the person located, was location detection accurate? • Is PPC showing for your brand, how many other ads?
- 52. @wilreynolds Each of those questions impacts CTR, increasing complexity, decreasing confidence in CTR models.
- 53. 53 @wilreynolds Predicting CTR w/ any degree of confidence is impossible making predicting impact reckless
- 54. @wilreynolds I can give you a number, I’ll have 5%-30% confidence in it 90% of the time
- 55. 55 @wilreynolds Have you ever been @ a store and did a search to compare price? Then go to another store? Or Buy online?
- 56. @wilreynolds Online Leads to Offline
- 57. @wilreynolds Build content high in the funnel Probably get more conversions
- 58. 58 @wilreynolds If we can get content on getting a checking account at 16, then we have a higher chance to rank when that 16 year old does a search for “checking account”.
- 59. @wilreynolds
- 60. @wilreynolds “If we can be there at every step of the customer journey, they’ll know our brand, we’ll get higher CTR, and we’ll rank higher…”
- 61. @wilreynolds I propose we look to get better… EVERY month, than we were last month (rankings, traffic, conv.) Theory + Implement + Analyze Tweak, Improve, Measure, Win.