25+ Reasons why predicting CTR from Rankings is Impossible
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25+ Reasons why predicting CTR from Rankings is Impossible

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So, you want to develop a model showing how rankings in Google, Bing, etc will lead to clicks, conversions, and revenue? We think that is dangerous in all cases, but especially for sites with very ...

So, you want to develop a model showing how rankings in Google, Bing, etc will lead to clicks, conversions, and revenue? We think that is dangerous in all cases, but especially for sites with very little historical data. As SEO professionals, we get it, mobile vs desktop, logged in vs non logged in, personalized vs non-personalized, brand vs unbranded, again we get it, but our bosses and clients sometimes don't, so we decided to share with you one of our slide decks built specifically to help the SEER team to get our clients thinking more holistically about the impact SEO can have. We hope it helps you getting your bosses and clients thinking more holistically too.

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25+ Reasons why predicting CTR from Rankings is Impossible Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Predicting impact of SEO Wil Reynolds Associate @wilreynolds
  • 2. @wilreynolds Makes sense
  • 3. 3 @wilreynolds Keyword Volume (x) Click Through Rate (x) Conversion Rate (x) Conversion Value ROI
  • 4. @wilreynolds
  • 5. @wilreynolds Keyword Volume + Cost
  • 6. @wilreynolds Multiplied By
  • 7. @wilreynolds Click Through Rate
  • 8. @wilreynolds Multiplied By
  • 9. @wilreynolds Conversion Rate
  • 10. @wilreynolds Multiplied By
  • 11. @wilreynolds Conversion Value
  • 12. 12 @wilreynolds 33,000 Searches (x) 1.04 CTR @ #10 343.2 Visitors
  • 13. 13 @wilreynolds 343.2 Visitors (x) .18% conv. rate (x) .62 Conversions
  • 14. 14 @wilreynolds .62 Conversions/mo (x) 12 months 7.5 Conversions @ $150k = $1,125,000
  • 15. @wilreynolds You Us
  • 16. 16 @wilreynolds Easy, right?
  • 17. @wilreynolds Problem, predicting search volume and CTR is impossible
  • 18. @wilreynolds
  • 19. 19 @wilreynolds #1 – Search Volume
  • 20. @wilreynolds Impacted by News Fall out of Favor Change in how we search Google gets Smarter Google Changes Behavior
  • 21. @wilreynolds News
  • 22. @wilreynolds Fall out of Favor
  • 23. @wilreynolds Fall out of Favor
  • 24. @wilreynolds Change in how we search
  • 25. @wilreynolds Google Gets Smarter
  • 26. @wilreynolds Google Changes Behavior
  • 27. 27 @wilreynolds #2 – Click Through Rate
  • 28. @wilreynolds Carousel Google’s Comparison Ads Mobile Changes PPC + SEO impacts CTR
  • 29. @wilreynolds Carousel
  • 30. @wilreynolds
  • 31. @wilreynolds
  • 32. @wilreynolds
  • 33. @wilreynolds
  • 34. @wilreynolds
  • 35. @wilreynolds PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic
  • 36. @wilreynolds PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic
  • 37. 37 @wilreynolds “SEO CTR rises by 416% (brand) & rises by 125% (non-brand) When a PPC ad is also on the SERP” -SEER Study 2013
  • 38. @wilreynolds Tale of 2 searches
  • 39. 39 @wilreynolds Search #1 “SEO Company”
  • 40. 40 @wilreynolds 7 – Philly 2 – National 1 – Review 0 - Atlanta
  • 41. 41 @wilreynolds Search #2 First search “Things to do in Atlanta” Second search “SEO Company”
  • 42. 42 @wilreynolds Impact CTR?
  • 43. @wilreynolds Amazon, Trusted + Prime
  • 44. @wilreynolds Get more branded search? Probably get more rankings
  • 45. 45 @wilreynolds Cut that TV campaign, rankings might slide…
  • 46. @wilreynolds Mobile Search changes 1 – How we search 2 – What we see (vs Desktop)
  • 47. @wilreynolds
  • 48. @wilreynolds Impact On CTR? (Call + Map)
  • 49. @wilreynolds
  • 50. @wilreynolds How confident are you NOW?
  • 51. 51 @wilreynolds • Is the Map showing? & is it mobile vs desktop? • Is mobile growing more than desktop for that KW? • Is your PPC ad showing? • Is a Click to Call Ad showing on mobile? • Is that person in your circles? • Have they searched for a different city before? • Ranking is lower if site is improperly configured? • Did you get the person to visit from a “how much to save” query, which increased your rank later for certain people but not others? • Is your brand trusted in SERP, like Amazon/Zappos? • Have they been to your site before? • Are branded competitors moving up? • Is Google launching a test? • Where is the person located, was location detection accurate? • Is PPC showing for your brand, how many other ads?
  • 52. @wilreynolds Each of those questions impacts CTR, increasing complexity, decreasing confidence in CTR models.
  • 53. 53 @wilreynolds Predicting CTR w/ any degree of confidence is impossible making predicting impact reckless
  • 54. @wilreynolds I can give you a number, I’ll have 5%-30% confidence in it 90% of the time
  • 55. 55 @wilreynolds Have you ever been @ a store and did a search to compare price? Then go to another store? Or Buy online?
  • 56. @wilreynolds Online Leads to Offline
  • 57. @wilreynolds Build content high in the funnel Probably get more conversions
  • 58. 58 @wilreynolds If we can get content on getting a checking account at 16, then we have a higher chance to rank when that 16 year old does a search for “checking account”.
  • 59. @wilreynolds
  • 60. @wilreynolds “If we can be there at every step of the customer journey, they’ll know our brand, we’ll get higher CTR, and we’ll rank higher…”
  • 61. @wilreynolds I propose we look to get better… EVERY month, than we were last month (rankings, traffic, conv.) Theory + Implement + Analyze Tweak, Improve, Measure, Win.