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Predicting impact of
SEO
Wil Reynolds
Associate
@wilreynolds
@wilreynolds
Makes sense
3
@wilreynolds
Keyword Volume (x)
Click Through Rate (x)
Conversion Rate (x)
Conversion Value
ROI
@wilreynolds
@wilreynolds
Keyword Volume + Cost
@wilreynolds
Multiplied By
@wilreynolds
Click Through Rate
@wilreynolds
Multiplied By
@wilreynolds
Conversion Rate
@wilreynolds
Multiplied By
@wilreynolds
Conversion Value
12
@wilreynolds
33,000 Searches (x)
1.04 CTR @ #10
343.2 Visitors
13
@wilreynolds
343.2 Visitors (x)
.18% conv. rate (x)
.62 Conversions
14
@wilreynolds
.62 Conversions/mo
(x) 12 months
7.5 Conversions @
$150k = $1,125,000
@wilreynolds
You Us
16
@wilreynolds
Easy, right?
@wilreynolds
Problem, predicting
search volume and CTR is
impossible
@wilreynolds
19
@wilreynolds
#1 – Search Volume
@wilreynolds
Impacted by News
Fall out of Favor
Change in how we search
Google gets Smarter
Google Changes Behavior
@wilreynolds
News
@wilreynolds
Fall out of Favor
@wilreynolds
Fall out of Favor
@wilreynolds
Change in how we search
@wilreynolds
Google Gets Smarter
@wilreynolds
Google Changes Behavior
27
@wilreynolds
#2 – Click Through Rate
@wilreynolds
Carousel
Google’s Comparison Ads
Mobile Changes
PPC + SEO impacts CTR
@wilreynolds
Carousel
@wilreynolds
@wilreynolds
@wilreynolds
@wilreynolds
@wilreynolds
@wilreynolds
PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic
@wilreynolds
PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic
37
@wilreynolds
“SEO CTR rises by 416% (brand)
& rises by 125% (non-brand)
When a PPC ad is also on the SERP”
-SEER Study ...
@wilreynolds
Tale of 2 searches
39
@wilreynolds
Search #1
“SEO Company”
40
@wilreynolds
7 – Philly
2 – National
1 – Review
0 - Atlanta
41
@wilreynolds
Search #2
First search
“Things to do in Atlanta”
Second search
“SEO Company”
42
@wilreynolds
Impact
CTR?
@wilreynolds
Amazon, Trusted + Prime
@wilreynolds
Get more branded search?
Probably get more rankings
45
@wilreynolds
Cut that TV campaign,
rankings might slide…
@wilreynolds
Mobile Search changes
1 – How we search
2 – What we see (vs Desktop)
@wilreynolds
@wilreynolds
Impact
On
CTR?
(Call + Map)
@wilreynolds
@wilreynolds
How confident are you NOW?
51
@wilreynolds
• Is the Map showing? & is it mobile vs desktop?
• Is mobile growing more than desktop for that KW?
• Is y...
@wilreynolds
Each of those questions
impacts CTR, increasing
complexity, decreasing
confidence in CTR models.
53
@wilreynolds
Predicting CTR w/ any
degree of confidence is
impossible
making predicting impact
reckless
@wilreynolds
I can give you a number,
I’ll have 5%-30% confidence in it
90% of the time
55
@wilreynolds
Have you ever been @ a store
and did a search to compare
price?
Then go to another store?
Or Buy online?
@wilreynolds
Online Leads to Offline
@wilreynolds
Build content high in the funnel
Probably get more conversions
58
@wilreynolds
If we can get content on
getting a checking account
at 16, then we have a higher
chance to rank when that
...
@wilreynolds
@wilreynolds
“If we can be there at every step
of the customer journey, they’ll
know our brand, we’ll get higher
CTR, and ...
@wilreynolds
I propose we look to get better…
EVERY month, than we were last
month (rankings, traffic, conv.)
Theory + Imp...
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25+ Reasons why predicting CTR from Rankings is Impossible

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So, you want to develop a model showing how rankings in Google, Bing, etc will lead to clicks, conversions, and revenue? We think that is dangerous in all cases, but especially for sites with very little historical data. As SEO professionals, we get it, mobile vs desktop, logged in vs non logged in, personalized vs non-personalized, brand vs unbranded, again we get it, but our bosses and clients sometimes don't, so we decided to share with you one of our slide decks built specifically to help the SEER team to get our clients thinking more holistically about the impact SEO can have. We hope it helps you getting your bosses and clients thinking more holistically too.

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25+ Reasons why predicting CTR from Rankings is Impossible

  1. 1. Predicting impact of SEO Wil Reynolds Associate @wilreynolds
  2. 2. @wilreynolds Makes sense
  3. 3. 3 @wilreynolds Keyword Volume (x) Click Through Rate (x) Conversion Rate (x) Conversion Value ROI
  4. 4. @wilreynolds
  5. 5. @wilreynolds Keyword Volume + Cost
  6. 6. @wilreynolds Multiplied By
  7. 7. @wilreynolds Click Through Rate
  8. 8. @wilreynolds Multiplied By
  9. 9. @wilreynolds Conversion Rate
  10. 10. @wilreynolds Multiplied By
  11. 11. @wilreynolds Conversion Value
  12. 12. 12 @wilreynolds 33,000 Searches (x) 1.04 CTR @ #10 343.2 Visitors
  13. 13. 13 @wilreynolds 343.2 Visitors (x) .18% conv. rate (x) .62 Conversions
  14. 14. 14 @wilreynolds .62 Conversions/mo (x) 12 months 7.5 Conversions @ $150k = $1,125,000
  15. 15. @wilreynolds You Us
  16. 16. 16 @wilreynolds Easy, right?
  17. 17. @wilreynolds Problem, predicting search volume and CTR is impossible
  18. 18. @wilreynolds
  19. 19. 19 @wilreynolds #1 – Search Volume
  20. 20. @wilreynolds Impacted by News Fall out of Favor Change in how we search Google gets Smarter Google Changes Behavior
  21. 21. @wilreynolds News
  22. 22. @wilreynolds Fall out of Favor
  23. 23. @wilreynolds Fall out of Favor
  24. 24. @wilreynolds Change in how we search
  25. 25. @wilreynolds Google Gets Smarter
  26. 26. @wilreynolds Google Changes Behavior
  27. 27. 27 @wilreynolds #2 – Click Through Rate
  28. 28. @wilreynolds Carousel Google’s Comparison Ads Mobile Changes PPC + SEO impacts CTR
  29. 29. @wilreynolds Carousel
  30. 30. @wilreynolds
  31. 31. @wilreynolds
  32. 32. @wilreynolds
  33. 33. @wilreynolds
  34. 34. @wilreynolds
  35. 35. @wilreynolds PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic
  36. 36. @wilreynolds PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic
  37. 37. 37 @wilreynolds “SEO CTR rises by 416% (brand) & rises by 125% (non-brand) When a PPC ad is also on the SERP” -SEER Study 2013
  38. 38. @wilreynolds Tale of 2 searches
  39. 39. 39 @wilreynolds Search #1 “SEO Company”
  40. 40. 40 @wilreynolds 7 – Philly 2 – National 1 – Review 0 - Atlanta
  41. 41. 41 @wilreynolds Search #2 First search “Things to do in Atlanta” Second search “SEO Company”
  42. 42. 42 @wilreynolds Impact CTR?
  43. 43. @wilreynolds Amazon, Trusted + Prime
  44. 44. @wilreynolds Get more branded search? Probably get more rankings
  45. 45. 45 @wilreynolds Cut that TV campaign, rankings might slide…
  46. 46. @wilreynolds Mobile Search changes 1 – How we search 2 – What we see (vs Desktop)
  47. 47. @wilreynolds
  48. 48. @wilreynolds Impact On CTR? (Call + Map)
  49. 49. @wilreynolds
  50. 50. @wilreynolds How confident are you NOW?
  51. 51. 51 @wilreynolds • Is the Map showing? & is it mobile vs desktop? • Is mobile growing more than desktop for that KW? • Is your PPC ad showing? • Is a Click to Call Ad showing on mobile? • Is that person in your circles? • Have they searched for a different city before? • Ranking is lower if site is improperly configured? • Did you get the person to visit from a “how much to save” query, which increased your rank later for certain people but not others? • Is your brand trusted in SERP, like Amazon/Zappos? • Have they been to your site before? • Are branded competitors moving up? • Is Google launching a test? • Where is the person located, was location detection accurate? • Is PPC showing for your brand, how many other ads?
  52. 52. @wilreynolds Each of those questions impacts CTR, increasing complexity, decreasing confidence in CTR models.
  53. 53. 53 @wilreynolds Predicting CTR w/ any degree of confidence is impossible making predicting impact reckless
  54. 54. @wilreynolds I can give you a number, I’ll have 5%-30% confidence in it 90% of the time
  55. 55. 55 @wilreynolds Have you ever been @ a store and did a search to compare price? Then go to another store? Or Buy online?
  56. 56. @wilreynolds Online Leads to Offline
  57. 57. @wilreynolds Build content high in the funnel Probably get more conversions
  58. 58. 58 @wilreynolds If we can get content on getting a checking account at 16, then we have a higher chance to rank when that 16 year old does a search for “checking account”.
  59. 59. @wilreynolds
  60. 60. @wilreynolds “If we can be there at every step of the customer journey, they’ll know our brand, we’ll get higher CTR, and we’ll rank higher…”
  61. 61. @wilreynolds I propose we look to get better… EVERY month, than we were last month (rankings, traffic, conv.) Theory + Implement + Analyze Tweak, Improve, Measure, Win.
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So, you want to develop a model showing how rankings in Google, Bing, etc will lead to clicks, conversions, and revenue? We think that is dangerous in all cases, but especially for sites with very little historical data. As SEO professionals, we get it, mobile vs desktop, logged in vs non logged in, personalized vs non-personalized, brand vs unbranded, again we get it, but our bosses and clients sometimes don't, so we decided to share with you one of our slide decks built specifically to help the SEER team to get our clients thinking more holistically about the impact SEO can have. We hope it helps you getting your bosses and clients thinking more holistically too.

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