1. Predicting impact of
SEO
Wil Reynolds
Associate
@wilreynolds

2. @wilreynolds
Makes sense

3. 3
@wilreynolds
Keyword Volume (x)
Click Through Rate (x)
Conversion Rate (x)
Conversion Value
ROI

4. @wilreynolds

5. @wilreynolds
Keyword Volume + Cost

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Multiplied By

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Click Through Rate

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Multiplied By

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Conversion Rate

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Multiplied By

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Conversion Value

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@wilreynolds
33,000 Searches (x)
1.04 CTR @ #10
343.2 Visitors

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@wilreynolds
343.2 Visitors (x)
.18% conv. rate (x)
.62 Conversions

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@wilreynolds
.62 Conversions/mo
(x) 12 months
7.5 Conversions @
$150k = $1,125,000

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You Us

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@wilreynolds
Easy, right?

17. @wilreynolds
Problem, predicting
search volume and CTR is
impossible

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@wilreynolds
#1 – Search Volume

20. @wilreynolds
Impacted by News
Fall out of Favor
Change in how we search
Google gets Smarter
Google Changes Behavior

21. @wilreynolds
News

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Fall out of Favor

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Fall out of Favor

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Change in how we search

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Google Gets Smarter

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Google Changes Behavior

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@wilreynolds
#2 – Click Through Rate

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Carousel
Google’s Comparison Ads
Mobile Changes
PPC + SEO impacts CTR

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Carousel

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35. @wilreynolds
PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic

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PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic

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@wilreynolds
“SEO CTR rises by 416% (brand)
& rises by 125% (non-brand)
When a PPC ad is also on the SERP”
-SEER Study 2013

38. @wilreynolds
Tale of 2 searches

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@wilreynolds
Search #1
“SEO Company”

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@wilreynolds
7 – Philly
2 – National
1 – Review
0 - Atlanta

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@wilreynolds
Search #2
First search
“Things to do in Atlanta”
Second search
“SEO Company”

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@wilreynolds
Impact
CTR?

43. @wilreynolds
Amazon, Trusted + Prime

44. @wilreynolds
Get more branded search?
Probably get more rankings

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@wilreynolds
Cut that TV campaign,
rankings might slide…

46. @wilreynolds
Mobile Search changes
1 – How we search
2 – What we see (vs Desktop)

47. @wilreynolds

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Impact
On
CTR?
(Call + Map)

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How confident are you NOW?

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@wilreynolds
• Is the Map showing? & is it mobile vs desktop?
• Is mobile growing more than desktop for that KW?
• Is your PPC ad showing?
• Is a Click to Call Ad showing on mobile?
• Is that person in your circles?
• Have they searched for a different city before?
• Ranking is lower if site is improperly configured?
• Did you get the person to visit from a “how much to save” query,
which increased your rank later for certain people but not others?
• Is your brand trusted in SERP, like Amazon/Zappos?
• Have they been to your site before?
• Are branded competitors moving up?
• Is Google launching a test?
• Where is the person located, was location detection accurate?
• Is PPC showing for your brand, how many other ads?

52. @wilreynolds
Each of those questions
impacts CTR, increasing
complexity, decreasing
confidence in CTR models.

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@wilreynolds
Predicting CTR w/ any
degree of confidence is
impossible
making predicting impact
reckless

54. @wilreynolds
I can give you a number,
I’ll have 5%-30% confidence in it
90% of the time

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@wilreynolds
Have you ever been @ a store
and did a search to compare
price?
Then go to another store?
Or Buy online?

56. @wilreynolds
Online Leads to Offline

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Build content high in the funnel
Probably get more conversions

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@wilreynolds
If we can get content on
getting a checking account
at 16, then we have a higher
chance to rank when that
16 year old does a search
for “checking account”.

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“If we can be there at every step
of the customer journey, they’ll
know our brand, we’ll get higher
CTR, and we’ll rank higher…”

61. @wilreynolds
I propose we look to get better…
EVERY month, than we were last
month (rankings, traffic, conv.)
Theory + Implement + Analyze
Tweak, Improve, Measure, Win.