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HR  Practices  
&  
  TechnologY  
induced  change  
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.org
Peter Cochrane
The  world  is  no  longer  simple
It is connected complex and non-linear !
Complexity
is the norm
Complexity is
accelerating
Globalisation
is growing
CulturalDifferenceSkill Shortages
are universal
Integration and
o r g a n i s a t i o n a l
r e o r g a n i s a t i o n
are necessi ties
Humans always!
the most difficult
Embrace & prosper	

Deny & fail
complexity
What does it mean ?
‘Not simple or obvious’	

Resists analysis	

Resists modelling	

Denies simplification	

Unexpected outcomes	

Unintended consequences	

No generalised classifications	

No generalised mathematical theory
No generalised description	

Mostly counter intuitive	

Generally confounding	

Conditionally difficult	

No, or, weak axioms	

Non commutative
non-linear
What does it mean ?
Outcome not related to input by scale 	

and may see a different outcome every time
even when starting conditions/inputs are the	

	

 same !
How come??
- Minuscule/imperceptible differences in start conditions
- Minuscule/imperceptible differences in the system state
Small input changes can have a massive 	

impact on the output
Natural  &  man  made
Complexity, Non-Linearity, Chaos are the natural order !
connected
What does it mean ??
The day of the independent variable is over	

The day of disconnected decisions and effect/s has gone 	

Today unintended consequences rule…and there is no escape
The  world  is  no  longer  slow
It is fast and speeding up !
Change  is  not  a  constant
It is exponential !
A doubling every year = 1024 (1k) fold in 10 years	

	

 In 20 years = 1024 x 1024 = 1M	

	

 	

 	

 	

 In 30 years = 1B
My laptop is now 1M fold more
powerful than the one I 	

had 20 years ago!
Exponential
Why it is a big deal !!
Telephone Network Growth ∝ N2	

!
Internet Network Growth ∝ 2N	

!
Cloud Network Growth ∝ N1/2
Increase nodes 10 fold = Energy Increase
x 100 more energy
x 1000 more energy
x 3.6 more energy
The telephone network and Internet will not scale to >7Bn
people + >50 Bn things on line but clouds will!
everyone  is  connected
And soon so will everything!
Global traffic 	

flows
education  through  a  straw
People focussed into a corner leading to unemployment!
Limited to 3 - 7 simultaneous topics/tasks	

Mathematics fails > order 5	

In evolutionary stasis
Physics
ART
LAW
Biology
TECH
Maths
Chemistry
Humanities Religion MediaIT
Professions are now
multidisciplinary
Multi-talented  &  flexible
Doers and the solvers of problems!
Education  v  ability
Paper achievements will be outgunned by a proven abilty!
HUmans  are  simple  minded
They cannot cope with or solve the complex!
Limited to 3 - 7 simultaneous topics/tasks	

Mathematics fails > order 5	

In evolutionary stasis
Machines experience	

no such limitations !
Why  do  we  employ  People  ?
Because they are cheaper than robots !
MATERIALS
Organic + inorganic, printed,
programmed, autonomous
No  casting,  Pressing,  machining
> 300 parts are now printed
FRont  line  production
Shipping designs and not parts
AI  -  HUMAN  
Conflict or cooperation ?
Without Artificial Intelligence many of today’s
machines, technology, production and control
processes would fail/be impossible…
…and in the future this will be even more so…and if
humanity is to progress we have no choice !
IBM  WATSON
General knowledge
In 1997 IBM Deep Blue became the
Chess Grand Master - and now my
laptop will beat any human with
ease!
In 2011 IBM
Watson
became
the world
champion
at General
Knowledge
IBM  WATSON
Medical Expertise
In 2012 IBM Watson moved into
medical diagnosis
By 2014
Watson
became
superior
to any
human
Doctor
at data
analysis
and
diagnosis
People  reaction
I want one!!
A very high proportion of the
general public appear to be
ready to embrace the new
technologies of robotics & 	

ar tificial intelligence in	

their homes and places of
work..and in everyday life	

!
…children and young people 	

are especially accepting, as 	

are the aged and ailing when
needy of support that is lacking
AI  job  destruction
Sweeping away the old
Testers	

Tasters	

Analysts	

Advisors	

Educators	

Reporters	

Strategists	

Call centres	

Report writers	

Personal bankers	

Personal assistants	

Answering services	

Investment bankers
Agents	

Drivers	

Assistant	

IT support	

Technicians	

Researcher	

Train driver	

Forecasters	

Receptionist	

Stock Trader	

Tech support	

+++++	

Warehouse People
AI  job  CREATION  &  ENHANCEMENT
Bringing in the better and the new
Polymath	

Fabricator	

Geneticist	

Generalist	

Proteomist	

Multi-designer	

Problem solver	

Longevity advisor	

Big Data Analyst	

Cellular programmer	

Material programme	

Complexity analysts
Medics	

Scientists	

Engineers	

Modellers	

Designers	

Detectives	

Architects	

Consultants	

Technologists	

Entrepreneurs	

++++	

Security Experts
BIG/META  DATA  -  BIG  RETURNS
The power of the hash
Highly mathematical and specialised,
but a gold mine of opportunities
BIG/Meta  DATA  -  ANALYSIS
Only one person filtered out by The Hash Function
more  pilots  on  the  ground
Military aviation & civil aviation transformed
Big expensive machines and pilots
sidelined in policing, TV reporting,
surveying +++
food  and  care  transformed
Sensor technologies available to all
future  employment/employees
New modes and different expectations
the  rise  of  the  Connected  
New modes and different expectations
Speed	

of 	

Change
Adaptability	

and	

Flexibility
New	

Technology	

Entries	

Competition
Growing	

Global
Market	

Threat	

Ecological	

Humanitarian	

Demands
BYOD	

BMOB	

OPEN	

APPS	

Social	

Mobility	

BIG	

Data
More empowering than
anything we have
had before
THE  future  is  personal
Personal not Corporate Computing
My way works and yours is so slow	

I leverage my network and you don’t have one	

My laptop is so much more powerful than yours	

I need access so I by-pass the company network	

My network speed is far faster than yours
Unacceptable  
Ineffective and redundant IT Dept’s
Thinking/attitudes out of step with reality, corporate and
people needs	

!
Resistive of any form 	

of change	

!
Against mobility,	

BYOD, Apps, SMTP +++	

!
Warped and paranoid view of	

threats and security - obsessed by firewalls 	

and malware protection, Office Upgrades, inventory control,
purchases, and network issues, but doing nothing about the
insider threat, big data, business modelling, decision support
You have to
every 5 days
change your
password every
Can they cope with the sophistication of
the new threat scenarios ?
Do they have the same ability and resources as
Cisco, IBM, Google,Apple et al working together...
security
Are you protected, is your team up to par ?
- Unsure	

- Unaware	

- Uninformed	

- Underpowered	

- Blissfully ignorant
Pre - occupied by:	

Office upgrades	

LAN provision	

Old services	

Operations	

+++
security
Or are they in the little league ?
new  workforce
Tech savvy, fully equipped, no respect for IT Depts!
The see social
networking is a
vital a tool...
...as their choice of
equipment, apps, 	

web sites and	

ways of working...
...they don’t
eMail, theyTXT	

and IM !
...they don’t
conceal or
hide they
share !
new  workforce
No loyalty or allegiances, driven by interests !
T h e y s e e I T a s
‘personal’ and not
‘corporate’ - 	

!
Thinking, working & acting
differently...
…creating new
fast,innovative
solutions, groups,
and operations...	

new  workforce
Working on the fly using what they choose!
Management attitudes, working and operational
practices, will have to change if companies are 	

to keep up and compete on 	

the world stage ...
case  study:  XYZ  Corporation  
ABC market leader
• Open entry - no airlocks	

• Open plan - no offices	

• 60% seating provision	

• Flexible working	

• Mobile working	

• Home working	

• BYOD	

• BMOB	

• Virtual PBX	

• VOIP PBX Client	

• No wired infrastructure
• Power sockets only	

• Cloud provision	

• App freedom	

• ISP freedom	

• Open access	

• Open Apps	

• Transients	

• Associates	

• Part timers	

• Contractors	

• Multi Continent	

• +++	

New Building designed for 21C working
THE  BIG  HR  CHAllenge
Over the next 10 years +
• Fewer Full Time and FTE	

• Shorter FT dwell times	

• Shorter project times	

• Changing processes	

• New technologies	

• More competition	

• More contractors	

• More transients	

• More machines	

• Faster change
Thank You
ca-global.org

cochrane.org.uk
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s

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HR practices and technology induced change

  • 1. HR  Practices   &    TechnologY   induced  change   COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org Peter Cochrane
  • 2. The  world  is  no  longer  simple It is connected complex and non-linear ! Complexity is the norm Complexity is accelerating Globalisation is growing CulturalDifferenceSkill Shortages are universal Integration and o r g a n i s a t i o n a l r e o r g a n i s a t i o n are necessi ties Humans always! the most difficult Embrace & prosper Deny & fail
  • 3. complexity What does it mean ? ‘Not simple or obvious’ Resists analysis Resists modelling Denies simplification Unexpected outcomes Unintended consequences No generalised classifications No generalised mathematical theory No generalised description Mostly counter intuitive Generally confounding Conditionally difficult No, or, weak axioms Non commutative
  • 4. non-linear What does it mean ? Outcome not related to input by scale and may see a different outcome every time even when starting conditions/inputs are the same ! How come?? - Minuscule/imperceptible differences in start conditions - Minuscule/imperceptible differences in the system state Small input changes can have a massive impact on the output
  • 5. Natural  &  man  made Complexity, Non-Linearity, Chaos are the natural order !
  • 6. connected What does it mean ?? The day of the independent variable is over The day of disconnected decisions and effect/s has gone Today unintended consequences rule…and there is no escape
  • 7. The  world  is  no  longer  slow It is fast and speeding up !
  • 8. Change  is  not  a  constant It is exponential ! A doubling every year = 1024 (1k) fold in 10 years In 20 years = 1024 x 1024 = 1M In 30 years = 1B My laptop is now 1M fold more powerful than the one I had 20 years ago!
  • 9. Exponential Why it is a big deal !! Telephone Network Growth ∝ N2 ! Internet Network Growth ∝ 2N ! Cloud Network Growth ∝ N1/2 Increase nodes 10 fold = Energy Increase x 100 more energy x 1000 more energy x 3.6 more energy The telephone network and Internet will not scale to >7Bn people + >50 Bn things on line but clouds will!
  • 10. everyone  is  connected And soon so will everything! Global traffic flows
  • 11. education  through  a  straw People focussed into a corner leading to unemployment! Limited to 3 - 7 simultaneous topics/tasks Mathematics fails > order 5 In evolutionary stasis Physics ART LAW Biology TECH Maths Chemistry Humanities Religion MediaIT Professions are now multidisciplinary
  • 12. Multi-talented  &  flexible Doers and the solvers of problems!
  • 13. Education  v  ability Paper achievements will be outgunned by a proven abilty!
  • 14. HUmans  are  simple  minded They cannot cope with or solve the complex! Limited to 3 - 7 simultaneous topics/tasks Mathematics fails > order 5 In evolutionary stasis Machines experience no such limitations !
  • 15. Why  do  we  employ  People  ? Because they are cheaper than robots !
  • 16. MATERIALS Organic + inorganic, printed, programmed, autonomous
  • 17. No  casting,  Pressing,  machining > 300 parts are now printed
  • 18. FRont  line  production Shipping designs and not parts
  • 19. AI  -  HUMAN   Conflict or cooperation ? Without Artificial Intelligence many of today’s machines, technology, production and control processes would fail/be impossible… …and in the future this will be even more so…and if humanity is to progress we have no choice !
  • 20. IBM  WATSON General knowledge In 1997 IBM Deep Blue became the Chess Grand Master - and now my laptop will beat any human with ease! In 2011 IBM Watson became the world champion at General Knowledge
  • 21. IBM  WATSON Medical Expertise In 2012 IBM Watson moved into medical diagnosis By 2014 Watson became superior to any human Doctor at data analysis and diagnosis
  • 22. People  reaction I want one!! A very high proportion of the general public appear to be ready to embrace the new technologies of robotics & ar tificial intelligence in their homes and places of work..and in everyday life ! …children and young people are especially accepting, as are the aged and ailing when needy of support that is lacking
  • 23. AI  job  destruction Sweeping away the old Testers Tasters Analysts Advisors Educators Reporters Strategists Call centres Report writers Personal bankers Personal assistants Answering services Investment bankers Agents Drivers Assistant IT support Technicians Researcher Train driver Forecasters Receptionist Stock Trader Tech support +++++ Warehouse People
  • 24. AI  job  CREATION  &  ENHANCEMENT Bringing in the better and the new Polymath Fabricator Geneticist Generalist Proteomist Multi-designer Problem solver Longevity advisor Big Data Analyst Cellular programmer Material programme Complexity analysts Medics Scientists Engineers Modellers Designers Detectives Architects Consultants Technologists Entrepreneurs ++++ Security Experts
  • 25. BIG/META  DATA  -  BIG  RETURNS The power of the hash Highly mathematical and specialised, but a gold mine of opportunities
  • 26. BIG/Meta  DATA  -  ANALYSIS Only one person filtered out by The Hash Function
  • 27. more  pilots  on  the  ground Military aviation & civil aviation transformed Big expensive machines and pilots sidelined in policing, TV reporting, surveying +++
  • 28. food  and  care  transformed Sensor technologies available to all
  • 29. future  employment/employees New modes and different expectations
  • 30. the  rise  of  the  Connected   New modes and different expectations Speed of Change Adaptability and Flexibility New Technology Entries Competition Growing Global Market Threat Ecological Humanitarian Demands BYOD BMOB OPEN APPS Social Mobility BIG Data
  • 31. More empowering than anything we have had before THE  future  is  personal Personal not Corporate Computing My way works and yours is so slow I leverage my network and you don’t have one My laptop is so much more powerful than yours I need access so I by-pass the company network My network speed is far faster than yours
  • 32. Unacceptable   Ineffective and redundant IT Dept’s Thinking/attitudes out of step with reality, corporate and people needs ! Resistive of any form of change ! Against mobility, BYOD, Apps, SMTP +++ ! Warped and paranoid view of threats and security - obsessed by firewalls and malware protection, Office Upgrades, inventory control, purchases, and network issues, but doing nothing about the insider threat, big data, business modelling, decision support You have to every 5 days change your password every
  • 33. Can they cope with the sophistication of the new threat scenarios ? Do they have the same ability and resources as Cisco, IBM, Google,Apple et al working together... security Are you protected, is your team up to par ?
  • 34. - Unsure - Unaware - Uninformed - Underpowered - Blissfully ignorant Pre - occupied by: Office upgrades LAN provision Old services Operations +++ security Or are they in the little league ?
  • 35. new  workforce Tech savvy, fully equipped, no respect for IT Depts!
  • 36. The see social networking is a vital a tool... ...as their choice of equipment, apps, web sites and ways of working... ...they don’t eMail, theyTXT and IM ! ...they don’t conceal or hide they share ! new  workforce No loyalty or allegiances, driven by interests !
  • 37. T h e y s e e I T a s ‘personal’ and not ‘corporate’ - ! Thinking, working & acting differently... …creating new fast,innovative solutions, groups, and operations... new  workforce Working on the fly using what they choose!
  • 38. Management attitudes, working and operational practices, will have to change if companies are to keep up and compete on the world stage ...
  • 39. case  study:  XYZ  Corporation   ABC market leader • Open entry - no airlocks • Open plan - no offices • 60% seating provision • Flexible working • Mobile working • Home working • BYOD • BMOB • Virtual PBX • VOIP PBX Client • No wired infrastructure • Power sockets only • Cloud provision • App freedom • ISP freedom • Open access • Open Apps • Transients • Associates • Part timers • Contractors • Multi Continent • +++ New Building designed for 21C working
  • 40. THE  BIG  HR  CHAllenge Over the next 10 years + • Fewer Full Time and FTE • Shorter FT dwell times • Shorter project times • Changing processes • New technologies • More competition • More contractors • More transients • More machines • Faster change