The document discusses the future of IT professionals and provides both positive and negative perspectives. Positively, there will continue to be IT jobs, though many may be outsourced or require H1B visas. Agile development is becoming more common. However, surveys show IT professionals are dissatisfied with their work and salaries. The document argues that IT is seen negatively as a commodity and that professionals are viewed as interchangeable resources. It suggests alternative futures that focus on culture, problem-solving and incremental innovation rather than projects and tools.

1. The Future of IT Professionals (if they have one) OTUG March 21, 2006 Dr. dave west

2. Good news (Bad news) There will be a future (the threat of avian programmer flu pandemic has been vastly exaggerated) The dot com recession has ended (excepting a few “Googles”, the dot com excitement is largely gone as well) IT jobs are increasing in number (mostly offshore and/or via HB1 visa increases – most of you are not smart enough for Bill) 34% of all software projects are completed and used by customer (usually late and over budget) Platforms are smaller, faster, cheaper (still powered by Windows) Agile / Lean development is sweeping the industry (at least 14% of all IT shops use some agile / lean practices)

3. Survey Says! 2500 sent, 1427 returned (Feb/March 2005) 43% would choose profession again 5% made the world a better place 74% salary stagnant / declining 63% felt negative consequences from off-shoring 9% satisfied with day-to-day process / method 21% take great pride in the quality of their work

4. Baseline 2006 IT Doesn’t matter IT professionals are commodities Management / User perspective Popular Perceptions

5. IT Doesn’t Matter Nicholas G Carr, Harvard Business Review, 2003 Main arguments IT is cheap and ubiquitous IT is a utility – no longer of strategic value IT management should Spend less Follow, don’t lead Focus on vulnerabilities, not opportunities

6. IT doesn’t Matter - Rebuttal John Seeley Brown, John Hagel III IT by itself, rarely if ever, confers strategic advantage IT is inherently strategic because it creates possibilities and options Main points Extracting value from IT requires innovations in business practices IT’s economic impact comes from incremental innovations rather than “big bang” initiatives (“fiasco” of ERP / CRM projects) The strategic impact of IT investments comes from the cumulative effect of sustained initiatives to innovate business practices in the near term (emergence) Strategic value comes from “radical incrementalism”

7. IT Doesn’t Matter - Aside Done versus said Few companies welcome (foster) innovation Most companies act as if they believe that new tech equates to new strategy Most companies, and professionals, reject new ideas, new possibilities: instead adopt “syntactic veneer” Bang! Is still norm “ Solutions” that inhibit / prevent innovation in business practice preferred over those that enable “ Thriving on chaos” is still largely a corporate business myth “ CYA is our most valuable resource.”

8. IT Professionals are Commodities Outsourcing (Offshore) – 700 pound gorilla What IT – data entry, programming, OS / network admin / DBA, support Other – back office, clinical trials, applications and claims processing, filings, market research, legal (scientific research) Why Cost (64%), productivity (8%), turnaround speed (3%), quality (3%) We’ll adopt Java because everyone else is, so there will always be a lot of java programmers and we can get them at a rate of a dime a dozen Fungible, components to development teams (method used to force square pegs into round holes) HR restrictions – individual differences are impossible, distinctions only on “objective” criteria, e.g. certificates

9. Management / User Perspective Management IT “necessary evil” Cost of doing business Hard to manage Contributes little to bottom line Users “irritating tax levied an almost every aspect of life” Why Things Don’t Work

10. Popular Perceptions Geek Squad CS is hard, boring, and “done in India” University enrollments dropped 10-50% / year the past five years It’s (still) a boy thing Cannot name / identify “good” software “bad” software is everywhere An absence of heroes / heroines / mythic figures

11. Where did we go wrong IT is the computer Bad! Bad human! If it cannot be measured it is not real Control, centralization, integration Greatest generation

12. IT is the computer Dahlbom & Mathiassen – The Future of Our Profession Mechanistic dominant Focus = artifact, approach = construction, role = engineer Formality (of definition / specification, process) Need more romanticism Focus = culture, approach = interpretation, role = facilitator MDA - epitome of the abstracted machine

13. Bad!! Bad human! Original sin Are humans innately evil but capable of redemption, or innately good but subject to corruption? Taylorism and scientific management Automatic programming – CASE / repository - formal software engineering

14. If it cannot be measured it is not real Productivity LOC / developer Stories completed Tests passed Quality Defects / LOC Passed tests (elegance, durability, suitability, likeability) CMM, ISO9000, … Delivered software statistically identical to all other software

15. Control, Centralization, Integration Examples Architecture 55% of all programs use PSC architecture 30% have no architecture Database ERP / CRM Monolithic, expensive to change, example of Bang! Solutions Business straight jackets

16. Greatest Generation Mobilization overnight armies Manhattan project Big bang thinking GI Bill Education factories

17. Alternative Future – Stay the Course Dilbert Commoditization blue vest with a smiley button for all Certification No programmer left behind (It’s the test, stupid!) Google envy

18. Alternative Future – radical realization Key ideas Change of focus Redefine profession Re-conceptualize the professional Education The “C” word

19. Key ideas Silver Bullet – better people Methodology – iterative / incremental Process – applied reflection Software Engineering – simplest thing that could possibly work Objects – anthropomorphization Agile / XP – story Lean - only that which adds value

20. Objects and Stories Object = character Fundamental unit of decomposition and understanding – NOT programming Story Cast of characters Context (snapshot of characters in context) Interactions, communications (arbitrarily bounded – e.g. index card rule) Result = changes in the state[s] of characters or context The Historian by Elizabeth Kostova

21. Change of Focus System – not artifact Complicated (dead) versus complex (living) Reality construction Radical incrementalism Story not project Nominal expense not capital improvement Incremental return on investment Domain - not implementation Problem understanding defines solution All implementations are “trivial”

22. Redefine Profession Definition – metaphor Medicine, horticulture sacred (opposite of profane) responsibility Do no harm Eschew intrusion (e.g. surgery) Focus / pay attention to side effects - holism Practice Reclaim ownership of tools, skills, practices Community Guild, (cult), peer derived reputation, culture

23. Re-conceptualize the Professional Deshi, sensei, master, arhat By their works shall you know them Linda Evans, not Sigourney Weaver Grasshopper, Paladin, Dan Ingalls Situational awareness Right (non-attached) action catalyst

24. Education Experience based – studio Iterative, incremental Just-in-time, theory last One-room schoolhouse Teams Retrospective / introspective

25. What we are doing in NM

26. The “C” word Culture (not certification) Shared world view Common mythology (including heroic figures) Enculturation Schools (ashrams) Professional society – organization Conferences

27. OTUG – Agile 2006 - OOPSLA Separation (opening prayer) Re-identification, Re-recognition (rituals, hymns, testimony) Re-purposing (homily – story about us) Education / growth (sermon) Affirmation (ritual, hymns, responsorials) Re-integration (closing prayer, socialization)