Britain after the referendum: What next
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This document summarizes the results of a survey by Ipsos MORI on public attitudes in Britain following the Brexit referendum. It finds that most leave voters still think Brexit was the right decision, consumer confidence has not collapsed, and views are split on the economic impact. While immigration was a key driver of the leave vote, views are divided on whether Britain should prioritize single market access or controlling EU migration. The public also expresses uncertainty about Britain's negotiating position and whether Brexit will make the country stronger or weaker. Overall, British people remain proud of their country and identity. The document sets up a panel discussion on Britain's path forward after the vote to leave the European Union.
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Britain after the referendum: What next
- 1. Ā© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 Britain after the Referendum: What next? @IpsosMORI #IpsosMORIlive
- 2. Ā© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 2 Speakers Rt Hon Nick Clegg Paul Drechsler Polly Toynbee Tim Montgomerie Ben Page President, Confederation of British Industry Columnist, The Guardian Columnist, The Times MP Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
- 3. Ā© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 3 The Public Ben Page Chief Executive Mood Ipsos MORI
- 4. 4 Welcome!
- 5. 5 Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,077 online GB adults aged 18-75 29thā 30th June 2016 (426 leave voters and 548 remain voters) No sign of āBregretā As you may know the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Do you think that was the right decision or the wrong decision for the United Kingdom? 43% 44% 14% 89% 3% 8% 4% 89% 7% All Leave voters Remain voters Right decision Wrong decision Donāt know
- 6. 6 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month No collapse in consumer confidence -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan1997 Jun1997 Nov1997 Apr1998 Sep1998 Feb1999 Jul1999 Dec1999 May2000 Oct2000 Mar2001 Aug2001 Jan2002 Jun2002 Nov2002 Apr2003 Sep2003 Feb2004 Jul2004 Dec2004 May2005 Oct2005 Mar2006 Aug2006 Jan2007 Jun2007 Nov2007 Apr2008 Sep2008 Feb2009 Jul2009 Dec2009 May2010 Oct2010 Mar2011 Aug2011 Jan2012 Jun2012 Nov2012 Apr2013 Sep2013 Feb2014 Jul2014 Dec2014 May2015 Oct2015 Mar2016 Aug2016 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
- 7. 7 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Still split on economic impact of Brexit Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? - if anything more optimistic 18% 21% 39% 55% 26% 38% 46% 39% 11% 11% 15% 9% 29% 36% 35% 24% 49% 49% 7% 4% 16% 11% 9% 5% May ā16 May ā16 May ā16 July ā16 July ā16 July ā16 Britainās economy over the next five years Britainās economy over the next ten to twenty years Your own standard of living Better Makes no difference Worse Donāt know
- 8. 8 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Most do not expect a change in their Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? personal financial situation over the next 6 months About the same Stronger Weaker 57% 18% 24%
- 9. 9 Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,077 online GB adults aged 18-75 29thā 30th June 2016 (426 leave voters and 548 remain voters) Not very confident in our negotiators getting Very confident Fairly confident Not very confident Not at all confident Donāt know a good deal 3% 9% 6% 15% 36% 24% 41% 32% 35% 35% 14% 24% 6% 9% 11% Remain voters Leave voters All
- 10. 10 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th ā 14th June 2016 Immigration trumped the economy before Looking ahead to the Referendum on Britainās membership of the European Union on June 23rd, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which way to vote? And which of these issues, if any, that you mentioned is the most important to you in helping you decide which way to vote? 23 Juneā¦.. 11 7 5 6 7 8 11 12 28 33 Donāt know Nothing/none The ability to travel in the European Union Britainās ability to trade with countries in the European Union The cost of EU immigration on Britainās welfare system The impact on British jobs Impact on public services/housing Britainās ability to make its own laws The impact on Britainās economy The number of immigrants coming into Britain Jun-16 Unprompted
- 11. 11 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 9th ā 11th July 2016 Impact of Brexit on immigration numbers And now that Britain has voted to leave the EU, to what extent do you think the number of ā¦ coming to the UK will be higher or lower than if Britain had voted to remain, or will it make no difference? 5% 4% 9% 3% 51% 41% 17% 32% 13% 17% 5% 3% Immigrants from countries outside the EU EU immigrants A lot higher A little higher It will make no difference A little lower A lot lower Donāt know
- 12. 12 Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,077 online GB adults aged 18-75 29thā 30th June 2016 (426 leave voters and 548 remain voters) Split on single market v free movement with EU Britain should continue to allow European Union citizens to come and live and work in Britain in return for access to the EU single market Donāt know Britain should stop European Union citizens coming to live and work in Britain with new immigration rules even if that restricted Britainās access to the EU single market 67% 18% 42% 17% 16% 20% 16% 66% 38% Remain voters Leave voters All
- 13. 13 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,026 British adults 18+, 9th ā 11th July 2016 Divided over Brexitās impact ā except Now that Britain has voted to leave the EU, to what extent do you think it will be better or worse for each of following, or will it make no difference? on sovereignty Better Makes no difference Worse Donāt know 59% 59% 19% 31% 29% 32% 32% 32% 15% 16% 32% 24% 31% 33% 34% 27% 20% 21% 43% 42% 34% 31% 26% 36% 7% 4% 7% 4% 8% 5% 8% 5% May ā16 May ā16 May ā16 July ā16 July ā16 July ā16 May ā16 July ā16 Britainās public services Britainās national security Britainās influence in the world Britainās ability to make decisions in its own best interests
- 14. 14 Not just driven by economy/inequality, backlash against too-fast cultural change. Strong focus on immigration in US and UKā¦
- 15. 15 Patriotic nostalgia everywhere To what extent do you agree or disagreeā¦? I would like ā¦ to be the way it used to be 69% 62% 60% 57% 56% 56% 54% 53% 51% 50% 50% 46% 45% 45% 42% 41% 41% 35% 28% 28% 22% 21% 27% 34% 34% 36% 29% 34% 33% 44% 33% 43% 44% 38% 47% 46% 46% 45% 52% 67% 63% 73% US Argentina India Italy France Australia Belgium GB Turkey Canada S Africa Total Russia Brazil Spain Japan Poland Germany S Korea Sweden China Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, The Global Trends Survey Agree Disagree US
- 16. 16 Nativism seems the key driving force for Trumpā¦.. Nativism/
- 17. 17 What is the global view?
- 18. 18 In EU, Swedes most worried, How does the UK's decision to leave the European Union make you feel, if at allā¦ more worried about the future, more hopeful about the future or neither? French the least 53% 53% 51% 49% 46% 45% 42% 42% 31% 51% 47% 36% 35% 32% 31% 10% 13% 32% 6% 14% 10% 23% 9% 13% 13% 14% 6% 8% 33% 14% 19% 29% 34% 15% 42% 37% 44% 32% 49% 45% 56% 36% 47% 56% 32% 54% 50% 61% Sweden Great Britain Hungary Poland Belgium Italy Spain Germany France South Africa Japan Canada India Australia US Russia European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union More worried about the future More hopeful about the future Neither Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016
- 19. 19 Germans and Spanish most likely to Following on from the UK's vote to leave the European Union, do you think the UK will be stronger or weaker? think Brexit will 64% 64% 60% 57% 50% 49% 47% 44% 41% 44% 43% 40% 38% 36% 32% 17% 13% 14% 14% 21% 25% 35% 25% 21% 34% 15% 10% 30% 23% 44% 33% 47% 23% 22% 26% 23% 25% 16% 27% 35% 25% 41% 47% 30% 39% 20% 36% 37% Germany Spain Belgium Sweden Poland Great Britain Hungary France Italy Canada Japan South Africa Australia India US Russia European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union Weaker Stronger Donāt know Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016 weaken Britain
- 20. 20 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 12,525 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden and the United States, July 2016 Britons think they should get a favourable deal ā Do you agree or disagree The European Union should offer favourable terms to Britain in negotiations about their future relationship to reduce the negative impact on the economy overall but French and Belgians want us to be punished! 56 36 31 28 26 26 25 20 19 52 51 44 43 37 33 1416 23 20 23 30 28 27 34 39 25 40 21 19 16 16 19 GB Hungary Poland Sweden Spain Italy Germany Belgium France South Africa India US Russia Australia Canada Japan Countries outside of the European UnionEuropean Union countries Agree Disagree
- 22. 22 Base: 1,052 British Citizens aged 16-75 across the UK. Interviews were conducted online, from 26th-29th July 2016 What makes us proudest? Which two or three of the following, if any would you say makes you most proud to be British? Please select up to 3 options. 50% 43% 31% 26% 25% 24% 14% 11% 11% 6% 4% 5% 3% The NHS Our History The Royal Family Our system of democracy Our culture and arts British army / armed forces Having a free press/ media The BBC Position in the world British sports teams British business None Don't know
- 23. 23 Base: 1,052 British Citizens aged 16-75 in GB. Interviews were conducted online, from 26th-29th July 2016 What is best From this list, please tell me which two or three, if any of these do you think are the best characteristics of British people as a whole? 6% 7% 13% 19% 24% 25% 26% 27% 40% 47% Don't know None Keep to themselves Law abiding Hardworking Friendly Patriotism Tolerant Polite/Good Manners Good sense of humour about us?
- 24. 24 Base: 1,052 British Citizens aged 16-75 in GB. Interviews were conducted online, from 26th-29th July 2016 And whatās worst? From this list, please tell me which two or three, if any of these do you think are the worst characteristics of British people as a whole? 5% 7% 7% 14% 14% 14% 17% 18% 19% 22% 27% 37% 42%Drink too much Ignorant of other cultures Complain too much Intolerant to other sections of society Lazy Bad eating habits Too pessimistic Bad teeth Too nationalistic Rude Unfriendly None Donāt know
- 25. 25 Base: 1,052 British Citizens aged 16-75 in GB. Interviews were conducted online, from 26th-29th July 2016 Still proud to be British rather than Do you agree or disagree with the statement, āI would rather be a citizen of Britain than of any country on earth?ā anything else! 31% 29% 23% 8% 5% 4% Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to agree Strongly disagree I am not British Donāt know
- 26. Ā© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 26 Rt Hon Nick Clegg MP
- 27. Ā© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 27 Paul Drechsler President Confederation of British Industry
- 28. Ā© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 28 Polly Toynbee Columnist The Guardian
- 29. Ā© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 29 Tim Montgomerie Columnist The Times
- 30. Ā© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 30 Over to you!
- 31. Ā© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 31 Thank you!