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Europeans' attitudes to the UK's EU referendum

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Half of people in nine European countries believe UK will vote to leave the EU


• Half think Brexit could lead to a ‘domino effect’
• Europeans more likely to think Brexit will harm the EU than the UK
• On the eve of Europe Day, four in ten Europeans foresee a reduced EU by 2020

With the British referendum on European Union (EU) membership on 23 June rapidly approaching, a new poll from Ipsos reveals that half (49%) of Europeans in eight other EU countries believe that Britain will vote to leave the EU. The survey is published on Europe Day, the anniversary of the Schumann declaration arguing for greater political cooperation in Europe, viewed as one of the founding moments of the European Union.

Published in: News & Politics
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Europeans' attitudes to the UK's EU referendum

  1. 1. Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 1 Ipsos Brexit poll May 2016
  2. 2. 2Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Contents  Referendum on EU  Impact of Brexit  Future of Europe
  3. 3. 3Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Methodology • These are the findings of the Brexit Survey. In total 11,030 interviews were conducted between March 25th – April 8th 2016 among adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and adults aged 16-64 in all other countries. • The survey was conducted in 14 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel system. The countries reporting herein are Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, and the United States of America. • The nine European Union countries represent approximately three-quarters of the EU’s population and 80% of its GDP. • Approximately 1000+ individuals participated on a country by country basis via the Ipsos Online Panel with the exception of Belgium, Hungary, India, Poland, South Africa, and Sweden, where the sample was approximately 500+. The precision of Ipsos online polls is calculated using a credibility interval with a poll of 1,000 accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and of 500 accurate to +/- 5.0 percentage points. For more information on Ipsos’ use of credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website. • In countries where internet penetration is approximately 60% or higher the data output reflects the general population. Of the 14 countries surveyed online, 12 yield results that are balanced to reflect the general population: Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States. The two remaining countries surveyed - India (19%) and South Africa (47%) - have lower levels of internet connectivity and are therefore not reflective of the general population; however, the online sample in these countries are valuable in their own right as they are more urban/educated/income than their fellow citizens and are often referred to as “Upper Deck Consumer Citizens”. • Where results do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses or the exclusion of don't knows or not stated responses. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
  4. 4. Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 4 Referendum on the EU
  5. 5. 5Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016 Will Britain stay in the EU or vote to leave? Thinking about Britain's referendum on European Union membership, which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely? 53% 47% 62% 38% European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION
  6. 6. 6Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016 65 59 57 56 56 51 50 42 40 68 64 60 58 58 35 42 43 44 44 49 50 58 60 32 36 40 42 42 Great Britain Germany Poland Hungary Sweden Spain Belgium France Italy Canada United States India Australia South Africa Will Britain stay in the EU or vote to leave? Thinking about Britain's referendum on European Union membership, which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely? European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union % - BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION % - BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION
  7. 7. 7Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 6017 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016 Who wants a referendum on the EU and would vote “OUT”? Do you think your own country should or should not hold a referendum on its European Union membership? How would you vote if your country held such a referendum now? 45% 33% Think their own country should hold a referendum on EU membership Would vote "out" if a referendum on their country's EU membership was held now
  8. 8. 8Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 6017 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016 Who wants a referendum on the EU and would vote “OUT”? Do you think your own country should or should not hold a referendum on its European Union membership? How would you vote if your country held such a referendum now? 58% 55% 43% 42% 41% 40% 40% 38% 48% 41% 39% 29% 22% 34% 26% 29% Italy France Sweden Belgium Poland Germany Spain Hungary THINK THEIR OWN COUNTRY SHOULD HOLD A REFERENDUM ON EU MEMBERSHIP WOULD VOTE "OUT" IF A REFERENDUM ON THEIR COUNTRY'S EU MEMBERSHIP WAS HELD NOW
  9. 9. 9Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016 Impact of Brexit on future EU To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? If Britain left the European Union, other countries would follow 48% 35% 18% 42% 42% 16% European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union AGREE NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE DISAGREE
  10. 10. 10Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016 Impact of Brexit on future EU To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? If Britain left the European Union, other countries would follow 15 9 16 12 9 8 11 9 8 9 15 9 5 5 40 42 35 39 39 37 32 33 34 40 33 35 30 28 26 31 37 31 37 34 40 40 36 41 33 35 51 53 13 9 9 13 10 18 12 13 19 9 12 16 12 11 6 9 3 5 4 3 5 5 3 2 8 5 2 3 Hungary Sweden Italy Germany Belgium Poland Spain France Great Britain United States India South Africa Canada Australia European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union % STRONGLY AGREE % TEND TO AGREE % NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE % TEND TO DISAGREE % STRONGLY AGREE
  11. 11. Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 11 Impact of Brexit
  12. 12. 12Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016 The impact of Brexit on the British and EU economy If Britain did vote to leave the European Union, do you think it would have a positive or negative impact, or make no difference, on… the EU’s economy / Britain’s economy? European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union 36% 51% 29% 41% THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE EU'S ECONOMY THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S ECONOMY
  13. 13. 13Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016 The impact of Brexit on the British and EU economy If Britain did vote to leave the European Union, do you think it would have a positive or negative impact, or make no difference, on… the EU’s economy / Britain’s economy? European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union 75 60 53 53 49 49 44 40 39 49 44 44 39 28 46 37 36 30 39 24 43 30 43 34 31 26 26 25 Hungary Sweden Spain Poland Belgium Italy Great Britain France Germany South Africa Canada United States Australia India % THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE EU'S ECONOMY % THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S ECONOMY
  14. 14. 14Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016 The impact of Brexit on world politics If Britain did vote to leave the European Union, do you think it would have a positive or negative impact, or make no difference, on… the EU’s influence on the world stage / Britain’s influence on the world stage? European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union 38% 48% 26% 34% THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR EU'S INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD STAGE THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD STAGE
  15. 15. 15Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016 The impact of Brexit on world politics If Britain did vote to leave the European Union, do you think it would have a positive or negative impact, or make no difference, on… the EU’s influence on the world stage / Britain’s influence on the world stage? European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union 68 59 49 47 45 45 39 39 38 43 36 34 31 26 48 37 41 36 41 30 39 41 31 37 23 26 23 24 Hungary Sweden Spain Poland Belgium Italy Great Britain Germany France South Africa United States Canada Australia India % THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR EU'S INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD STAGE % THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD STAGE
  16. 16. 16Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 10025 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016 Impact of Brexit on relationship with UK If Britain leaves the European Union, do you think it would make the relationship between your country and Britain stronger, weaker, or make no difference? 5% 46% 48% 16% 64% 21% European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union STRONGER MAKE NO DIFFERENCE WEAKER
  17. 17. 17Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Base: 10025 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016 Impact of Brexit on relationship with UK If Britain leaves the European Union, do you think it would make the relationship between your country and Britain stronger, weaker, or make no difference? 58 56 54 46 46 44 44 37 32 24 20 15 12 38 41 39 48 52 49 53 52 59 51 58 74 77 4 4 8 6 2 7 4 11 9 25 22 12 12 Spain Germany Hungary Poland Belgium Italy France Sweden South Africa India United States Canada Australia European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union % STRONGER % MAKE NO DIFFERENCE % WEAKER
  18. 18. Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 18 Future of Europe
  19. 19. 19Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor How the future EU will and should look like Base: 7022 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016 Do you think the European Union in 2020 will... What should be the long-term policy of your country? 6% 16% 39% 29% 11% ...have a single European government ...be more integrated, with more powers for the European Union compared to individual countries ...resemble todays European Union, with the same balance of powers between the EU and individual countries ...be less integrated, with fewer powers for the European Union compared to individual countries ...have disappeared altogether 15% 24% 18% 23% 21% Work for the formation of a single European government Stay in the EU and try to increase the EU's powers Leave things as they are Stay in the EU and try to reduce the EU's powers Leave the European Union
  20. 20. 20Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor How the future EU will and should look like (1) Do you think the European Union in 2020 will... and (2) What should be the long-term policy of your country… 21% 39% 40%39% 18% 43% More Europe Same Less Europe (1) ...have a single European government+ ...be more integrated, with more powers for the European Union compared to individual countries (2) Work for the formation of a single European government + Stay in the EU and try to increase the EU's powers (1) ...resemble todays European Union, with the same balance of powers between the EU and individual countries (2) Leave things as they are (1) ...be less integrated, with fewer powers for the European Union compared to individual countries + ...have disappeared altogether (2) Stay in the EU and try to reduce the EU's powers + Leave the European Union Base: 7022 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016 WHAT PEOPLE THINK IT WILL BE (1) WHAT PEOPLE WANT (2)
  21. 21. 21Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor How the future EU will and should look like (1) Do you think the European Union in 2020 will... and (2) What should be the long-term policy of your country… 17 47 3650 17 33 More Europe Same Less Europe 21 33 4743 21 36 More Europe Same Less Europe 21 38 41 20 28 52 More Europe Same Less Europe 22 27 5144 12 45 More Europe Same Less Europe 18 42 4140 13 47 More Europe Same Less Europe 22 45 3346 20 34 More Europe Same Less Europe 24 39 37 15 20 65 More Europe Same Less Europe 25 34 4143 14 43 More Europe Same Less Europe 22 46 32 48 18 34 More Europe Same Less Europe Base: 7022 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016 Belgium Poland Sweden Hungary France Germany Great Britain Italy Spain % WHAT PEOPLE THINK IT WILL BE % WHAT PEOPLE WANT
  22. 22. 22Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 29% 37% 34% 21% 39% 40% Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor Views on future EU - outside Europe Do you think the European Union in 2020 will... Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016 Outer pie: Countries outside of the European Union Inner pie: European Union countries …HAVE A SINGLE EUROPEAN GOVERNMENT+ BE MORE INTEGRATED, WITH MORE POWERS FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION COMPARED TO INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES …RESEMBLE TODAYS EUROPEAN UNION, WITH THE SAME BALANCE OF POWERS BETWEEN THE EU AND INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES ...BE LESS INTEGRATED, WITH FEWER POWERS FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION COMPARED TO INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES + ...HAVE DISAPPEARED ALTOGETHER 43% 34% 29% 23% 18% 28% 31% 35% 43% 47% 30% 35% 37% 34% 35% India South Africa United States Australia Canada
  23. 23. www.ipsos-mori.com/ Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 23 Jean-Michel Lebrun Research Director, Ipsos +32 (0) 2 642 49 10 jean-michel.lebrun@ipsos.com For more information Gideon Skinner Research Director, Ipsos MORI UK +44 (0)20 7347 3260 gideon.skinner@ipsos.com Daan Bijwaard Research Executive, Ipsos +32 (0) 2 642 49 37 daan.bijwaard@ipsos.com

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