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Immigration
HOW VIEWS CHANGE
APRIL 2015
© Ipsos MORI
2
Exploring Changes in Immigration Attitudes Over Time
In the first study of its kind, Ipsos MORI is conducti...
© Ipsos MORI
3
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2%
10%
25%
33%
28%
3%
Very satisfied Fairly satisfied
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Fairly dissatisfie...
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3% 1% 3% 5% 4% 4%
28%
10%
33%
11%
33%
25%
71%
33%
35%
34%
36%
37%
40%
22%
25%
32%
23%
33%
20% 27%
6%10%
20%...
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Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the current government is dealing with
immigrat...
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9% 4% 7% 9% 8% 13%
2%
12%
1%
25%
5%
19% 7%
15%
14%
3%
25%
13%
18%
21%
13%
39%
30%
36%
49%
43% 49%
47%
20%
4...
© Ipsos MORI
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7%
20%
39%
14%
12%
9%
A much better job now A slightly better job now
There's no difference A slightly wors...
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Four in ten have shifted views since the last election and of
those, a majority are more worried, particul...
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23%
34%
22%
7%
3% 11%
It is being discussed a lot more now
It is being discussed a bit more now
It is bein...
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1 in 5 UKIP supporters think that immigration is being discussed
less now than in 2010
11%
4% 7% 8% 9%
3%
...
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7% 8%
62%
37%
20%
28%
11%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 Feb-15
Too much About the...
© Ipsos MORI
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72%
23%
4%
1%
Immigration is not as much of a
problem as politicians and the
media make out
There is too m...
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Foreign born population is overestimated across the board. Lib
Dem and Green supporters closer to actual p...
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Party supporters that are least positive about the impact of immigration
are most likely to overestimate i...
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But the opposite is true for generations – younger
generations more positive but less accurate
R² = 0.7411...
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0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2...
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Most Britons still prefer to stay in the EU, even when
considering the ability to control immigration
22%
...
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Which issues will be very important when voters cast their
ballots?
66%
47%
46%
45%
40%
36%
36%
35%
34%
32...
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Only 23% say Immigration AND Europe will be
important to them
13% 23% 24%
Europe Only Both Europe and Immi...
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In 2005, the top four factors related to thinking
immigration is an issue were all newspapers…
Immigration...
© Ipsos MORI
31
Reflected in the massive divergence of views across
readers of different newspapers
• Source: Ipsos MORI I...
© Ipsos MORI
32
Immigration
Vote UKIP
Read the Sun
Vote Conservative
Read Daily Mail
White ethnic group
Aged 65+
More like...
© Ipsos MORI
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0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20...
Immigration
HOW VIEWS CHANGE
For more details contact: Bobby.duffy@ipsos.com
Kully.kaur-ballagan@ipsos.com
Tom.frere-smith...
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Immigration: How Views Change

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In a unique survey, Ipsos MORI will be interviewing a longitudinal panel of respondents on their attitudes to immigration throughout and after the election campaign.

This will provide a much more detailed understanding of how and why views change.

For the first wave we have also interviewed an unusually large sample of the public (over 4,500), which allows us to look at smaller sub-groups, including followers of all key parties and those who have switched parties since the last election.

Published in: News & Politics
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Immigration: How Views Change

  1. 1. Immigration HOW VIEWS CHANGE APRIL 2015
  2. 2. © Ipsos MORI 2 Exploring Changes in Immigration Attitudes Over Time In the first study of its kind, Ipsos MORI is conducting a longitudinal panel survey of the British public on their attitudes to immigration throughout and after the election campaign. This will provide a much more detailed understanding of how and why views on immigration change. In this presentation we highlight the key findings from our first panel wave of over 4,500 respondents as well as other trend data exploring immigration attitudes over the past several decades. The large sample for our survey allows us to look at smaller sub-groups, including followers of all key parties and those who have switched parties since the last election. The Fieldwork for the first longitudinal panel wave was completed online, from 25 February to 4 March 2015. Further waves will be released during and after the campaign. This initial wave identified 10 key trends in public opinion… We would like to thank Unbound Philanthropy for their support of this study.
  3. 3. © Ipsos MORI 3 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Paste co- brand logo here
  4. 4. © Ipsos MORI 4 2% 10% 25% 33% 28% 3% Very satisfied Fairly satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Fairly dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know 6% 23% 71% 6 in 10 are dissatisfied with the government’s handling of immigration, rising to almost all among Tory defectors to UKIP Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015), UKIP base: 172 All respondents UKIP supporters who voted Tory in 2010 Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the current government is dealing with immigration?
  5. 5. © Ipsos MORI 5 3% 1% 3% 5% 4% 4% 28% 10% 33% 11% 33% 25% 71% 33% 35% 34% 36% 37% 40% 22% 25% 32% 23% 33% 20% 27% 6%10% 20% 6% 15% 3% 5% 1%2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total Conservatives Labour Lib Dem SNP Green UKIP Very satisfied Fairly satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Fairly dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the current government is dealing with immigration? Even among Tory supporters, satisfaction is low, with only 23% satisfied Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
  6. 6. © Ipsos MORI 6 Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the current government is dealing with immigration? Consistent with previous measures – although lowest satisfaction we’ve measured since 2007… Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015) 14% 14% 11% 16% 14% 15% 21% 23% 12% 67% 68% 72% 66% 67% 64% 62% 64% 61% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Satisfied Dissatisfied
  7. 7. © Ipsos MORI 7 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Paste co- brand logo here
  8. 8. © Ipsos MORI 8 9% 4% 7% 9% 8% 13% 2% 12% 1% 25% 5% 19% 7% 15% 14% 3% 25% 13% 18% 21% 13% 39% 30% 36% 49% 43% 49% 47% 20% 44% 6% 20% 11% 8% 18% 7% 18% 1% 4% 2% 2% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total Conservatives Labour Lib Dem SNP Green UKIP A much better job A slightly better job There's no difference A slightly worse job A much worse job Don't know Do you think the current government has done a better or worse job of handling immigration than the previous Labour government? The current government is generally seen as on a par with previous Labour government on immigration Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
  9. 9. © Ipsos MORI 9 7% 20% 39% 14% 12% 9% A much better job now A slightly better job now There's no difference A slightly worse job now A much worse job now Don't know 6% 26% 48% 8% 11% 1% Do you think the current government has done a better or worse job of handling immigration than the previous Labour government? And nearly half of Tory defectors to UKIP think there’s no difference between this and previous Labour government All respondents Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015), UKIP base: 172 UKIP supporters who voted Tory in 2010
  10. 10. © Ipsos MORI 10 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Paste co- brand logo here
  11. 11. © Ipsos MORI 11 Four in ten have shifted views since the last election and of those, a majority are more worried, particularly UKIP supporters 1% 3% 4% 1% 5% 55% 58% 63% 42% 54% 33% 28% 29% 32% 29% 11% 11% 5% 25% 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Conservatives Labour Lib Dems UKIP Total Changed a lot Changed a little Stayed the same Don't know Thinking back to the last general election in 2010, since then would you say your views on immigration have changed a lot, a little, or stayed the same? 18% 30% 33% 62% 36% 56% 50% 57% 34% 50% 18% 14% 8% 3% 10% 7% 4% 1% 2% 4% 2% 2% 1% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Lib Dems Labour Conservatives UKIP Total Much more worried A little more worried A little less worried Much less worried Don't know And would you say you have become more or less worried about immigration since 2010? Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015) Base: those who say their views have changed a lot or a little, 930 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
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  13. 13. © Ipsos MORI 13 23% 34% 22% 7% 3% 11% It is being discussed a lot more now It is being discussed a bit more now It is being discussed about the same amount It is being discussed a bit less now It is being discussed a lot less now Don't know Do you think that immigration is being discussed more, less or about the same amount now than it was at the time of the last general election in 2010? Over half think that immigration is being discussed more now than at the last general election Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
  14. 14. © Ipsos MORI 14 1 in 5 UKIP supporters think that immigration is being discussed less now than in 2010 11% 4% 7% 8% 9% 3% 10% 2% 3% 1% 7% 11% 6% 8% 5% 22% 22% 23% 20% 20% 34% 35% 41% 32% 34% 23% 18% 21% 29% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total UKIP Conservatives Labour Lib Dems It is being discussed a lot more now It is being discussed a bit more now It is being discussed about the same amount It is being discussed a bit less now It is being discussed a lot less now Don't know Do you think that immigration is being discussed more, less or about the same amount now than it was at the time of the last general election in 2010? Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
  15. 15. © Ipsos MORI 15 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Paste co- brand logo here
  16. 16. © Ipsos MORI 16 7% 8% 62% 37% 20% 28% 11% 27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Apr-11 Feb-15 Too much About the right amount Too little Don't know Source: YouGov, April 2011; Ipsos MORI, Mar 2014, Dec 2014, Feb 2015 Generally speaking, do you think that the issue of immigration has been discussed in Britain too much, too little or about the right amount over the last few years/months? By party (Feb 2015) Views about level of discussion are polarising – three in four UKIP supporters think it is discussed too little, half of Lib Dems say too much 4% 7% 6% 2% 8% 41% 28% 17% 74% 37% 37% 28% 28% 21% 28% 18% 38% 48% 4% 27% 0% 50% 100% Conservatives Labour Lib Dems UKIP Total
  17. 17. © Ipsos MORI 17 72% 23% 4% 1% Immigration is not as much of a problem as politicians and the media make out There is too much talk but not enough action to control immigration Neither Don't know You said that immigration has been discussed too much over the last few months. Which of these two statements best explains why you think that? And most who think we discuss it too much are generally not worried about it Base: 1,215 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
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  19. 19. © Ipsos MORI 19 Foreign born population is overestimated across the board. Lib Dem and Green supporters closer to actual proportion (c13%) What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? MEAN Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Green Lib Dem SNP Labour Conservatives UKIP Total
  20. 20. © Ipsos MORI 20 Party supporters that are least positive about the impact of immigration are most likely to overestimate immigration levels R² = 0.7767 .00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 22.00 24.00 26.00 Lib Dems Plaid Cymru Labour SNP Total Conservatives UKIP Greens What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? MEAN On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on Britain? (0 is “very negative”, 10 is “very positive”) MEAN Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
  21. 21. © Ipsos MORI 21 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Paste co- brand logo here
  22. 22. © Ipsos MORI 22 But the opposite is true for generations – younger generations more positive but less accurate R² = 0.7411 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.00 25.00 What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)? MEAN On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on Britain? (0 is “very negative”, 10 is “very positive”) MEAN Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015) Pre-war Gen X Baby-boomers Gen Y Pre-war: born before 1945 Baby-boomers: born between 1945 and 1965 Gen X: born between 1966 and 1979 Gen Y: born since1980
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  24. 24. © Ipsos MORI 24 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pre-war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born between 1945 and 1965 Gen X (born between 1966 and 1979) Gen Y (born since 1980) Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index What would you say is the most important issue/other important issues facing Britain today? RACE RELATIONS/IMMIGRATION Generations have diverged in their views on the salience of immigration since the last election GE2010
  25. 25. © Ipsos MORI 25 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Paste co- brand logo here
  26. 26. © Ipsos MORI 26 Most Britons still prefer to stay in the EU, even when considering the ability to control immigration 22% 22% 12% 17% 22% 20% 26% 15% Strongly agree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know Base: 2,287 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015) 19% 21% 20% 27% 12% I would like Britain to leave the European Union I would like Britain to leave the European Union as that is the only way we can control the number of immigrants coming To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement…? Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 2,287British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
  27. 27. © Ipsos MORI 27 Which issues will be very important when voters cast their ballots? 66% 47% 46% 45% 40% 36% 36% 35% 34% 32% Healthcare/NHS/hospitals Asylum and immigration The economy Care for older/disabled people Benefits Education/schools Europe/EU Pensions Crime/law and order Taxation Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015)
  28. 28. © Ipsos MORI 28 Only 23% say Immigration AND Europe will be important to them 13% 23% 24% Europe Only Both Europe and Immigration Immigration only Source: Ipsos MORI; nationally representative sample of 4,574 British adults 16+ (Feb-March 2015) Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?
  29. 29. © Ipsos MORI 29 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Paste co- brand logo here
  30. 30. © Ipsos MORI 30 In 2005, the top four factors related to thinking immigration is an issue were all newspapers… Immigration Read the Daily Mail Owner-occupier Vote Conservative Read the Daily Express Read the Sun Work full-time More likely to see as important issue to Britain Social classes AB Read the Guardian Satisfied with gov 1.81 1.65 1.65 1.32 1.29 1.16 0.63 Less likely to see as important issue to Britain Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2004 0.68 0.58 Figures show odds ratios – i.e. how much more/less likely each group is to think immigration is an issue
  31. 31. © Ipsos MORI 31 Reflected in the massive divergence of views across readers of different newspapers • Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Daily Express Daily Mail Daily Mirror Daily Telegraph The Guardian The Independent The Sun The Times None of these What would you say is the most important issue/other important issues facing Britain today? IMMIGRATION
  32. 32. © Ipsos MORI 32 Immigration Vote UKIP Read the Sun Vote Conservative Read Daily Mail White ethnic group Aged 65+ More likely to see as important issue to Britain Read the Guardian Degree/post-grad Vote Labour Scotland Aged 18-24 Greater London Vote Green 4.75 1.69 1.67 1.61 1.44 1.41 0.55 0.56 0.63 0.68 0.68 0.52 0.74 Less likely to see as important issue to Britain Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2014 But now political affiliation is the strongest predictor of views on immigration Figures show odds ratios – i.e. how much more/less likely each group is to think immigration is an issue
  33. 33. © Ipsos MORI 33 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) UK Independence Party Would not vote Undecided Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index What would you say is the most important issue/other important issues facing Britain today? IMMIGRATION Our long term trends show that UKIP supporters more likely to say immigration an important issue
  34. 34. Immigration HOW VIEWS CHANGE For more details contact: Bobby.duffy@ipsos.com Kully.kaur-ballagan@ipsos.com Tom.frere-smith@ipsos.com Glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com

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