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"Beyond the Bubble" - Conservative Party Conference 2015

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What next for the Conservatives, presented at "Beyond the Bubble" event at Conservative Party Conference 2015.

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"Beyond the Bubble" - Conservative Party Conference 2015

  1. 1. Ipsos MORI at Conservatives 2015 Beyond the bubble What next for the Conservatives?
  2. 2. Conservatives 2015 WHAT HAPPENED? WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? @GideonSkinner gideon.skinner@ipsos.com
  3. 3. © Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential Conservatives won GE2015 with swings among key voter groups: Over 65s ABC1s East Midlands & South West But still behind among: Renters C2DEs Young women Scotland & London
  4. 4. 4
  5. 5. 36% 23% 6% 3% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Jan00 Apr00 Jul00 Oct00 Jan01 Apr01 Jul01 Oct01 Jan02 Apr02 Jul02 Oct02 Jan03 Apr03 Jul03 Oct03 Jan04 Apr04 Jul04 Oct04 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Labour’s lead on the NHS wasn’t enough…. 5 WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON HEALTHCARE THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY? Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM
  6. 6. 39% 53% 7% Will this government’s policies will improve Britain's ECONOMY in the long-term?
  7. 7. WHAT NEXT? WHAT ABOUT THE NEW GUY?
  8. 8. The old style of politics is losing younger generations All data points represent > 200 responses 8DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A SUPPORTER OF ANY ONE POLITICAL PARTY? Source: British Social Attitudes 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Pre war Baby boomers Gen X Gen Y
  9. 9. Jeremy Corbyn’s debut on the Ipsos MORI satisfaction ratings does not bode well 9 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY … DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER/ LEADER OF XX PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 21 13 22 12 16 13 15 17 17 20 22 36 23 33 37 30 34 12 15 26 31 36 41 33 Foot - Nov. '80 Kinnock - Oct '83 Major - Dec '90 Smith - July '92 Blair - Aug '94 Hague - Jun '97 Duncan Smith - Sep '01 Howard - Nov '03 Cameron - Jan '06 Brown - July '07 Miliband - Oct '10 Corbyn - Sep '15 % Dissatisfied % Satisfied Net +% +2 +20 +15 +18 +18 -1 0 +9 +16 +14 +19 -3 c. 1,000 British adults aged 18+ each month
  10. 10. …although satisfaction with the new leader is higher among the young 10ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th –22ND September 2015 * Net satisfied +% 14 19 4 -4 -11 -28 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
  11. 11. 62% 51% 46% 76% 51% 56% 45% 41% 51% 64% 30% 32% 23% 32% 37% 49% 47% 25% 41% 49% 39% 54% Capable leader Good in a crisis Sound judgement Patriotic Understands the problems facing Britain Has a clear vision for Britain More style than substance Has got a lot of personality Understands the problems facing Britain Out of touch with ordinary people More honest than most politicians A different type of politics? Jeremy Corbyn is seen as being more honest than most politicians and less out of touch….. 11 I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO JEREMY CORBYN? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th– 22nd September 2015. CORBYN CAMERON
  12. 12. 43% 14% 36% 63% 24% 28% 40% 43% 52% 39% 75% 36% 55% 60% 26% 27% 35% 43% 51% 62% 61% Divided Extreme Out of date Will promise anything to win votes Keeps its promises Has a good team of leaders Fit to govern Looks after the interests of people like me Understands the problems facing Britain Different to the other parties Concerned about people in real need in Britain And leading a party concerned about those in real need – but also as more divided and more extreme 12 I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor SEPTEMBER 2015 APRIL 2015 Base: 1,255 British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd September 2015.
  13. 13. But while Jeremy Corbyn is seen as more left-wing than Ed Miliband, perceptions of Cameron have drifted right-ward too 13HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THE VIEWS OF DAVID CAMERON? LEFT WING LEFT OF CENTRE CENTRE RIGHT OF CENTRE RIGHT WING DON’T KNOW October 2010 October 2013 September 2015 6% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 14% 13% 13% 28% 33% 31% 21% 24% 30% 26% 21% 18% Base: 1,255British adults 18+, 19th – 22nd September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 61% 57% 49%
  14. 14. WHAT NEXT? THE ECONOMY AND AUSTERITY
  15. 15. 45% 38% 17% Reaction to the Summer Budget was largely positive 15AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT RECENTLY ANNOUNCED ITS SUMMER 2015 BUDGET LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING….? Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Good thing Bad thing 46% 44% 10% Don’t know ...for the country Good thing Bad thing ...for you personally
  16. 16. And George Osborne’s ratings best for a Conservative since Nigel Lawson Base: c1,000 British adults aged 18+ 16 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY XXX IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor % saying ‘satisfied’ 66% 44% 67% 52% 45% 45% 34% 39% 44% 42% 37% 39% 36%37% 18% 31% 17% 24% 28% 38% 34% 52% 44% 56% 45% 42% 48% 52% 34% 41% 55% 57% 48% 46% 49% 47% 42% 32% 28% 36% 40% 36% 38% 28%27% 47% 43%44% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Mar-… Mar-… Apr-78 Jul-80 Mar-… Jun-83 Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Dec… Dec… Nov… Dec… Nov… Dec… Jul-97 Feb-… Mar-… Mar-… Feb-… Mar-… Jul-00 Sep… Nov… Mar-… Apr-02 Apr-03 Mar-… Nov… Feb-… Dec… Apr-07 Mar-… Mar-… Jun-10 Mar-… Dec… Apr-12 Mar-… Apr-14 Mar-… Jul-15 Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne
  17. 17. But concern about public services and austerity Base: 1,025 British adults 18+, 8th -11th March 2015 17ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor October 2013 March 2015 59% 35% 6% 60% 33% 7% AGREE DISAGREE DON’T KNOW IN THE LONG TERM, THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE BRITAIN’S PUBLIC SERVICES
  18. 18. WHAT NEXT? IMMIGRATION AND EUROPE
  19. 19. Cameron becomes PM Public concern around immigration is at the highest level we’ve ever recorded Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home * Up until Sept 2014 the code was race relations/immigration/immigrants What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 May 1997 May 1998 May 1999 May 2000 May 2001 May 2002 May 2003 May 2004 May 2005 May 2006 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 May 2013 May 2014 May 2015 Border controls relaxed for “A8” EU Countries (Poland, etc.) Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index Border controls relaxed for Romanians and Bulgarians Highest concern ever recorded (56%)
  20. 20. 21% 17% 6% 20% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 But faith in the Conservatives’ immigration policies has halved since 2008 20 WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON ASYLUM/IMMIGRATION THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY? Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM
  21. 21. The trend before the summer was towards Britain’s membership of the EU – will this last? 21 IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE? 26% 60% 63% 52% 49% 53% 51% 41% 61% 65% 29% 27% 36% 35% 32% 39% 49% 27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Jun-77 Jun-79 Jun-81 Jun-83 Jun-85 Jun-87 Jun-89 Jun-91 Jun-93 Jun-95 Jun-97 Jun-99 Jun-01 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Base: 501 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor STAY IN GET OUT
  22. 22. More Britons want a scaled-back relationship with the EU rather than leaving altogether 22 WHICH OF THE OPTIONS BEST DESCRIBES YOUR OWN PREFERENCE FOR BRITAIN'S FUTURE ROLE IN EUROPE? Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 13% 17% 20% 23% 19% 33% 34% 30% 28% 28% 31% 29% 32% 29% 24% 14% 14% 13% 13% 24% Britain leaving the European Union altogether Britain’s relationship with Europe remaining broadly the same as at present Britain returning to being part on economic community, without political links Britain and other member states of the European Union moving towards closer political and economic integration Apr ‘96 Nov ‘12 May ‘14 Oct ‘14 Jun ‘15 Apr ‘96 Nov ‘12 May ‘14 Oct ‘14 Jun ‘15 Apr ‘96 Nov ‘12 May ‘14 Oct ‘14 Jun ‘15 Apr ‘96 Nov ‘12 May ‘14 Oct ‘14 Jun ‘15
  23. 23. 6% 32% 37% 20% 4% Though Britons are unsure whether Cameron will be able to deliver a good deal Britain with the EU in any case 23 PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS? VERY CONFIDENT FAIRLY CONFIDENT NOT VERY CONFIDENT NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT NO OPINION Source: Ipsos MORI June 2015 Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015
  24. 24. AND WHAT ABOUT YOUR POTENTIAL NEXT LEADER?
  25. 25. Who would Britons like to see lead the Conservative Party? 25 AS YOU MAY KNOW, DAVID CAMERON HAS SAID THAT HE WILL STEP DOWN AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020 WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING POLITICIANS I AM GOING TO READ OUT, IF ANY, WOULD MAKE YOU MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,255 British adults 18+, 395 Conservative supporters 19th – 22nd September 2015 *Red herring 8% 25% 3% 4% 15% 17% 27% Don't know None of these Strewart Lewis Michael Gove Sajid Javid George Osborne Theresa May Boris Johnson * September 2015 BRITISH ADULTS 18+
  26. 26. But Conservative voters prefer George 26 AS YOU MAY KNOW, DAVID CAMERON HAS SAID THAT HE WILL STEP DOWN AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION IN 2020 WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING POLITICIANS I AM GOING TO READ OUT, IF ANY, WOULD MAKE YOU MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORIBase: British adults 18+, 395 Conservative supporters, 408 Labour, 103 LibDem, 70 UKIP 19th – 22nd September 2015 16% 2% 10% 18% 43% 28% 1% 8% 6% 28% 21% 42% 2% 4% 9% 17% 18% 7% 4% 3% 32% 18% 29% None of these Michael Gove Sajid Javid George Osborne Theresa May Boris Johnson * September 2015 CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS LABOUR SUPPORTERS LIBERAL DEMOCRAT SUPPORTERS UKIP SUPPORTERS
  27. 27. Thank you Q&A

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