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Ipsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 election

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Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos MORI presents his initial view of the accuracy of polls in the UK's Election of 2015. Read our statement here: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/latestnews/1680/In-response-to-the-2015-Election-results.aspx

Published in: News & Politics

Ipsos MORI's initial view on polls accuracy in the UK's 2015 election

  1. 1. The election, the polls, and aftermath Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI Ben.page@ipsos.com @benatipsosmori
  2. 2. Exit poll - 316 Result - 331 Exit poll - 239 Result - 232 Exit poll - 10 Result - 8 Exit poll - 58 Result - 21 Exit poll - 2 Result - 1 Exit poll - 2 Result - 1 Result - 56 Exit poll - 23 Source: Ipsos MORI/GfK NOP for BBC/ITV News /Sky News Asking what did do, rather than what will…
  3. 3. Our final poll – all parties less than 2% points away from actual – except Labour, overestimated Base: 862 British adults who are registered and certain to vote 5th -6th May 2015 6HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI calculations from BBC reports 36% 35% 11% 5% 8% 5% Ipsos MORI final poll GB final result Conservative lead = +1 Conservative lead = +6.5 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER 37.7% 31.2% 12.9% 3.8% 8.1% 6.4%
  4. 4. Record of the final polls in Britain Con Lab Lib/Alliance/ LibDem Average “error” 1959 0 +1 0 0.33 1964 +1 +1 -1 1.00 1966 -1 +3 -1 1.67 1970 -2 +4 -1 2.33 February 1974 0 -2 +2 1.33 October 1974 -2 +2 0 1.33 1979 0 +1 0 0.33 1983 +2 -2 0 1.33 1987 -1 +2 -1 1.33 1992 -5 +4 +1 3.33 1997 0 +3 -1 1.33 2001 -1 +3 -1 1.67 2005 0 +1 0 0.33 2010 -1 -2 +3 2.00 2015 -2 +4 +1 2.33
  5. 5. Average percentage point error on Conservative/Labour vote share
  6. 6. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Jun10 Aug10 Oct10 Dec10 Feb11 Apr11 Jun11 Aug11 Oct11 Dec11 Feb12 Apr12 Jun12 Aug12 Oct12 Dec12 Feb13 Apr13 Jun13 Aug13 Oct13 Dec13 Feb14 Apr14 Jun14 Aug14 Oct14 Dec14 Feb15 Apr15 Polls got the final prediction wrong – but direction of travel was fairly clear for last year… Base: c.500-600 British adults certain to vote each month 10HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 2013 average CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM 38 35 33 Election campaign average 31 2014 average 34 32 2012 average 41 33 2011 average 40 35 2010 post GE average 37 38
  7. 7. ‘Shy Tories’ not our problem – instead ‘Lazy Labour’ 11HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Base: 1,186 British adults 18+, 5th – 6th May 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI calculations from BBC reports 9.3 11.3 12.2 12.5 Implied from final poll Actual Votes (millions)
  8. 8. © Ipsos MORI 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 2015 2010 2005 Days before election % certain to vote -9ppt -11ppt -16ppt Difference between actual turnout and certainty to vote
  9. 9. Late swing could have played a role – 21% said may still change mind on May 6. Convenient explanation for pollsters, but probably not the key factor… 13 HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ LABOUR PARTY/ LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ GREENS/ UKIP/ SNP/PLAID CYMRU OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE? 43% 47% 48% 56% 65% 78% 56% 51% 50% 41% 34% 21% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW Source: Ipsos MORIBase: All registered expressing a preference (923), 5th -6th May 2015
  10. 10. Conservatives held on to as much of 2010 vote as Labour (so starting from higher base), and little direct Con-Lab switching Base: 260 2010 Conservative voters / 233 2010 Labour voters 5th -6th May 2015 registered and certain to vote 14 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? AMONG 2010 CONSERVATIVE AND LABOUR VOTERS Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 80% 4% 12% 3%1% 2010 Conservative voters 2010 Labour voters 2015 VOTING BEHAVIOUR CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM OTHER 5% 75% 5% 6% 9%
  11. 11. IN POWER
  12. 12. 23% 41% 4% 3%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Jan00 Apr00 Jul00 Oct00 Jan01 Apr01 Jul01 Oct01 Jan02 Apr02 Jul02 Oct02 Jan03 Apr03 Jul03 Oct03 Jan04 Apr04 Jul04 Oct04 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Conservatives’ led on the “economy stupid”… 16 WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON MANAGING THE ECONOMY THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY? Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM
  13. 13. 57% 51% 44% 47% 40% 56% 33% 24% 35% 50% 20% 45% 31% 24% 33% 46% 34% 31% 26% 17% 19% 33% 64% 43% Ed trailed Cameron on key attributes.. 17 I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO… DAVID CAMERON ED MILIBAND NIGEL FARAGE NICK CLEGG Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12th – 15th April 2015. Split sample for Farage (493) and Clegg (507) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor A capable leader Understands the problems facing Britain Good in a crisis Has sound judgement Has got a lot of personality Has a clear vision for Britain
  14. 14. Record levels of macro-optimism – but not felt in people’s pockets Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 12th – 15th April 2015 18 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? IN 2015, DO YOU THINK THAT EACH OF THE FOLLOWING WILL RISE, FALL, OR STAY ABOUT THE SAME LEVEL? YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Economic optimism - April 2015 IMPROVE 42% STAY THE SAME 27% GET WORSE 21% DON’T KNOW 11% EOI = +21 RISE 21% STAY THE SAME 61% FALL 17% DON’T KNOW 2% NET = +4 Standard of living over next 12 months – December 2014
  15. 15. And still much more disliked than Labour Base: 1,025 British adults aged 18+, 8-11 March 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF … LEADER AND … PARTY? 19 % dislike the party
  16. 16. Political Monitor Trends Prediction (10 p.m.): Con 307 seats Lab 255 seats LD 59 seats Result: Con 307 seats Lab 258 seats LD 57 seats Iain Dale (10:02 p.m.): The Lib Dems are only predicted to get 59 seats. I'll run naked down Whitehall if that turns out to be true
  17. 17. Global Trends Survey | July 2014 THANK YOU ben.page@ipsos.com @benatipsosmori

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