WWV2015: Wijnand Jongen Thuiswinkel.org

KEY TRENDS FOR E-COMMERCE 2015
Wijnand Jongen
Chairman Executive Committee Ecommerce Europe
CEO Thuiswinkel.org
Copenhagen, October 9, 2014

B2C E-commerce in Europe
• Representing 25.000+ Europe’s online merchants
• Selling B2C goods and services
• A € 363 bn ($ 496.9 bn) market
• 15+ national e-commerce associations
Who Do We Represent?
© Ecommerce Europe Page: 2www.ecommerce-europe.eu

© Ecommerce Europe www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Ecommerce Europe proposes an integrated pan European
perspective on 5 key policy areas:
1. Internet security & privacy
2. Consumer rights
3. E-payments
4. Tax Issues
5. E-logistics
1. Public Affairs
Page: 3

Page: 4© Ecommerce Europe www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Round Tables
2015
• Milan
• Madrid
• Dublin
• London
• Amsterdam
• Poznan
• Helsinki
• Copenhagen
• Paris
• Berlin
2. Networking
Page: 4
Round Tables, Pre-conferences, GES, National Association Events
In cooperation with:

3. Research: B2C E-commerce Reports
Page: 5
Reports include Country Profiles, Trends and 30+ Infographics
For free light version downloads of reports:
research@ecommerce-europe.eu
Powered by:In cooperation with:

Page: 6© Ecommerce Europe www.ecommerce-europe.eu
4. Ecommerce Europe Trustmark
Page: 6
In preparation, to be launched in 2015

KEY B2C E-COMMERCE FIGURES
Of Goods And Services

2013 Key B2C E-commerce Data of Goods and Services at a Glance
Top 10 e-commerce countries in
turnover (EUR billion)
USA € 315.4
China € 247.3*
UK € 107.1
Japan € 81.3
Germany € 63.4
France € 51.1
Australia € 26.9
Canada € 18.0
Russia € 15.5
S. Korea € 15.2
* B2C & C2C goods & services, excluding insurances
7,233 million
people live in the world
2,668 million
people use the Internet
1,181 million
people are e-shoppers
16%
37%
100%
€ 1,173.5 bn
Turnover E-commerce
Goods & Services
“1,878 million estimated social media users”
© Ecommerce Europe June 2014
www.ecommerce-europe.eu
info: info@ecommerce-europe.eu
for reports: research@ecommerce-europe.eu
Ecommerce Europe
Rue de Trèves 59-61 | B-1000 Brussels | Belgium
Tel: +32 (0) 2 502 31 34
Twitter: @Ecommerce_eu
Global
Global
€1,173.5 bn +13.6%
Total B2C e-sales 2013 of goods and services
1
2 3
73.4%
Share of Internet users
accessing the web through
a mobile device*
*Average worldwide
Cross-border B2C E- commerce
Most popular countries:
USA 45%
UK 37%
China / HK 26%
Canada 18%
Australia 16%
Germany 14%
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
Latin America
MENA
Africa
Others
€ 406.1 bn
€ 363.1 bn
€ 333.5 bn
€ 37.9 bn
€ 11.9 bn
€ 2.3 bn
€ 18.7 bn
+16.7%
+16.3%
+06.0%
+24.6%
+32.6%
+11.9%
+10.8%
GOMSEC
Global
Online
Measurement
Standard B2C
E-Commerce
“94 million consumers buy
cross-border and this number is
expected to grow in 2014”
Estimated share of
online goods in
total retail of goods
4.2%
‘Global B2C E-commerce report will be published in Fall 2014’

2013 Key B2C E-commerce Data of Goods and Services at a Glance
;
Top 5 mature e-commerce
countries in turnover (million)
UK € 107,157
Germany € 63,400
France € 51,100
Austria € 10,970
Netherlands € 10,583
Top emerging countries
Russia € 15,500
Spain € 14,414
Italy € 11,268
Poland € 5,225
816 million
people live in Europe
565 million
people use the Internet
264 million
people are e-shoppers
1
2 3
2, , +jobs directly or indirectly via e-commerce
54%
Goods
46%
Services
32%
69%
100% € 363.1 bn
Turnover E-commerce
Goods & Services
645,000+
estimated online businesses
3.7 billion+
number of parcels annually (f)
Estimated share of online
goods in total retail of goods
5.7%
“443 million social media users”
Europe
West
Central
South
North
East
€ 177.7 bn
€ 93.3 bn
€ 40.8 bn
€ 31.9 bn
€ 19.3 bn
+12.4%
+22.7%
+18.9%
+12.7%
+47.3%
2.2% eGDP
Europe
€ 363.1 bn 16.3%
EU28
€ 317.9 bn 14.7%
€ 16.4 trn GDP 2013
© Ecommerce Europe June 2014
www.ecommerce-europe.eu
info: info@ecommerce-europe.eu
for reports: research@ecommerce-europe.eu
Rue de Trèves 59-61|B-1000 Brussels |Belgium
Tel: +32 (0) 2 502 31 34
Twitter: @Ecommerce_eu
Powered by:
Free download at:
https://www.ecommerce-europe.eu/
facts-figures/free-downloads

Free downloads!
Page: 16
Powered by:
Free light version downloads:

The Dutch Landscape
• Representing 2.200+ Dutch online merchants
• A € 13,5 bn market (2014), 110 million purchases
• 18% online share of total spending (product & services)
* 10% of products
* 66% of services
• Growth percentages:
* 8% for 2014, 17% for product, -4% for stores

18
Shopping2020 Research
“How do consumers shop online in 2020 and which
actions need to be undertaken on an
national, sector and company level upon that Dutch
B2C selling companies can act on this
successfully, nationally, within Europe and globally.”

19
Online Will Explode, According To 460 Experts
Online,
20%
Offline, 80%
2013
Online, 28%
Offline, 72%
2017
Online, 36%
Offline, 64%
2020
Bron: GfK Expertonderzoek, September 2013 onder 444 Experts

20
52% Of Dutch Consumers Expect To Do
Shopping Online in 2020
T
2020
Online Offline
Bron: GfK Consumentenonderzoek, November 2013 onder 12.0000 Consumenten

5 MEGATRENDS FOR THE FUTURE
Source: iStock

© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu Page: 22
Megatrend 1
MEGATREND 1: CONVERGENCE
OF ALL CHANNELS

23© GfK 2014 | Remaining engaged | Global E-Commerce Summit
As Countries Reach Parity In Terms Of Online Access We Should Expect To
See This Number Rise
GfK panelmarket sales full year 2013
Sales value [%] [01-12/2013]
19%
81%
GB
73.8% 76.1%
IT
92.3%
BE PTES
91.1% 93.2% 97.1%
AT
83.1%82.0%
FRNL CH
79.0%77.4%
DE
2 1 4 3 5Total Sales Ranking Internet
Traditional Sales
Internet Sales
23.9% 22.6% 6.8%8.9% 7.7%18.0% 16.9%21.0%26.2%
2.9%

© Ecommerce Europe 1/30/2015 www.ecommerce-europe.eu
Who Is Leading The Mobile Revolution?
Page: 24
Megatrend 1: Convergence of Channels
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
North
America
South
America
Europe Asia Africa Oceania Global
%ofPageViewsComingfromMobile
Devices
Mobile Usage as % of Web Usage, by Region, 5/14

All The Way To Instant And Blended Commerce
Page: 25
Megatrend 1: Convergence of Channels

Source: iStock
MEGATREND 2: THE INTERNET OF THINGS

Wearables for personal benefit
Page: 29
Megatrend 2: Internet of Things

Products will become digital
Page: 30

Products will also become touchpoints
Page: 31

Shoes coach you to do better..
Page: 32

Big Data Will Tell It All
Page: 33
Megatrend 2

Our Smartphone Will Help Us Get Better
Page: 34

The Diaper Tells You When It Needs Changing
Page: 36

Disney’s Magic Band offer access to..
Page: 37

How 3D Printing Will Change The World
Page: 39
A New Digital Revolution In Itself
Less (local)
stock
Production of
lighter &
‘impossible’
products
Quicker design
& production
process
Mass one-on-
one
production

And Be Disruptive to a lot of Industries
Page: 40

MEGATREND 3: THE SUPER CONSUMER
“There is only one boss. The customer. And he can fire everybody in the company from the chairman on down,
simply by spending his money somewhere else...”

The Super Consumer Is Almighty
Page: 42
Megatrend 3

1 Thing Remains: Great Customer Experience
Page: 44
Megatrend 3: The Super Consumer

MEGATREND 4: RE-ECONOMY
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”
Henri Ford

Major Developments:
•Peer-to-Peer
• The Shared Economy
• The Sustainable Economy
Re-economy
Page: 46
Megatrend 4

The Peer2Peer Economy
Page: 47
Megatrend 4: Re-economy

Why Buy When You Can Share?
Page: 49
Megatrend 4: Re-economy

Why Lend At A Bank..?
Page: 50
Megatrends 4: Re-economy

MEGATREND 5: IT’S A GLOBAL COMPETION
“Start with the customer and work backwards.“ Jeff Bezos, CEO Amazon

Cross Border E-commerce is Growing Rapidly
Page: 55
SOURCE: EC (2013) Consumer Attitudes Towards Cross Border Trade and Consumer Protection
15
10
7
8
7
+21% p.y.
8
6
444
+19% p.y.
20122011201020092008
Consumers that bought products online outside of their own country in the last 12 months
Within the
EU
Outside of
the EU
Percentage

With UK, Germany and France in The Lead
Page: 56
With regard to cross-border e-commerce
SOURCE: Civic Consulting (2013); “Consumer market study on the functioning of eCommerce” in EC (2012) Bringing eCommerce benefits to customers
In which countries did you buy products/services online (%, 2013)
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
U.K.
Total
13
20
48
40
29
20
29
19
21
41
28
34
…
24
…
2
3
4
1
31
4
4
3
1
2
3
2
8
4
3
2
3
3
5
…
5
3
4
8
3
6
4
Italy
4
38
8
7
3
11
4
5
…
3
2
3
6
6
Nether-
lands
2
0
1
1
1
3
2
0
2
0
0
2
3
2
Poland
1
2
2
2
5
4
7
2
4
21
…
3
8
5
Spain
1
1
22
22
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
…
2
2
Sweden
United
KingdomAustria
2
…
1
2
15
4
4
19
15
1
5
2
3
5
Belgium
0
0
…
5
2
4
2
1
2
1
2
15
2
2
Denmark
90
26
32
38
41
…
36
78
43
18
22
32
21
27
GermanyFrance
5
42
5
5
…
9
26
43
11
16
27
9
17
14
Country of
origin
Country where products/services were purchased Percentage > 10%

The Americans Concur the World
Page: 58
And control more and more of the retail infrastructure

Amazon Is Still Leading The Way, Setting The Standard
Page: 59
With selection, ‘the everything store’, lowest prices, best convenience

But Some Cracks Are Appearing..
Page: 60

And New Competitors Are On The Rise
Page: 61
How long will it take for Google Shopping to add the BUY button?

The Chinese Are Here To Stay!
Page: 62

And They Have A Lot of Cash At Hand
Page: 63
Which is not intended for the homemarket

64
Why Alibaba May Beat Amazon?
At it’s IPO Alibaba is valued at $ 231 billion, more than Amazon ($153) and eBay ($65) together
• It owns 60+% of the Chinese market.
• It’s home market outgrows (40%) the US
market (14%) in 2016.
• It makes a profit (40%) while Amazon
does not (2%), as it does not invest in
technolgy (Kindle) infrastructure
(warehousing).
• It’s commission is 75% lower than that
of eBay & Amazon.
• It’s suppliers are the actual producers
(Amazon 3P are retailers).
• It owns Alipay (= Paypal) and can sell
directly on the local Twitter
• It can offer products at a much lower
cost as a result.
• Mobile rules in china (35% of traffic vs
15% in USA and 12% in Europe)
Bold expectations are that Amazon will focus on the customer experience as it controls the
entire journey, while Alibaba will focus on price. Question remains who will buy eBay?

66
Will Market Places Rule The World In 2020?
The ‘over everything strategy’ results in conversion ratio’s up to 20%
# of countries active Growth 2013
13 22%
1*
(just bought
US 11Main)
50%
13 45%
The 3rd party strategy is a cash cow; as sales growth their costs remain the same
Market share
2 – 24%
55 – 60%
20 – 30%
* Although Alibaba offers an international site it is not focused on a specifica market

FINAL CONCLUSIONS
Abraham Lincoln — 'The best way to predict your future is to create it'

1. Unique, exclusive offering
2. Become content owner
3. Build your community
4 Work together
5. Seamless fulfillment
6. Be authentic
7. Work small improvements
8. Watch and learn from Amazon
9. Embrace your people
10.Provide leadership.
Page: 72
10 Tips To Survice Amazon. And Alibaba

2020: We’re Moving Into A New Era
Page: 78
3D Printing
BIG DATA
Re-Economy
Shared Economy
Internet of Things
Anyway: Change Ahead!
Globalization
Sustainable Economy
Changing Consumer Behavior

Finally: It’s All About Innovation, Talent And People
Page: 79
Not the strongest but the most adaptable survive
!

The Future is Yours..
Page: 80
There is a business case for everyone!

The Future Is Yours!
Page: 81
There’s a business case for everyone
Source: Estimote iBeacon (http://youtu.be/sUIqfjpInxY)

WWV2015: Wijnand Jongen Thuiswinkel.org

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