Wow 20161023 v1
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The document discusses next generation cognitive curriculums and evolving education with cognitive and data sciences. It describes key building blocks for artificial and augmented intelligence including learning, perception, reasoning, interaction and knowledge. It also discusses building blocks for augmented intelligence including science, design, business value, societal impact, and interdisciplinarity. The document presents IBM's cognitive system build approach and types of cognitive system entities. It provides a brief history of AI and discusses challenges in building, understanding and working with cognitive systems.
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Wow 20161023 v1
- 1. Next Generation Curriculum Jim Spohrer (IBM) Las Vegas, NV USA; October 23, 2016 World of Watson (WOW): Evolving Education with Cognitive and Data Sciences http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/wow-20161023-v1 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 1
- 2. Intelligence Building Blocks 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 2
- 3. Artificial 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 3
- 4. Artificial 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 4 • Learning • Perception • Reasoning • Interaction • Knowledge
- 5. Augmented 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 5
- 6. Augmented 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 6 • Science • Design • Business Value • Societal Impact • Interdisciplinarity
- 7. Intelligence Building Blocks 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 7 • Augmented • Science (People) • Design • Business Value • Societal Impact • Interdisciplinarity • Artificial • Learning • Perception • Reasoning • Interaction • Knowledge
- 8. Science – People (Child to Adult) 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 8
- 9. Science - People (Novice to Expert) 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 9
- 10. Design 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 10 • HCI • Human-Computer Interactions • CSCW • Computer Supported Collaborative Work • PSS • Performance Support Systems • SDC • Social-Dynamic Counseling • STS-D • Socio-Technical Systems - Design
- 11. Design (Books) 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 11
- 12. Business Value 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 12
- 13. Societal Implications 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 13
- 14. Interdisciplinary • Disciplines: Breadth of disciplines to tackle issues: • Psychology and cognitive science, philosophy, design and art, public policy and management, law and regulations • Systems: Professional associations to tackle industry and system issues, including novice to expert progression on tasks • Socio-technical system design loop and smart service systems 10/24/2016 Future of AI 14
- 15. Intelligence Building Blocks 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 15 • Augmented • Science (People) • Design • Business Value • Societal Impact • Interdisciplinarity • Artificial • Learning • Perception • Reasoning • Interaction • Knowledge
- 16. IBM Cognitive Build: Experiment • Tool • Assistant • Collaborator • Coach • Mediator 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 16
- 17. Progression: Types and Models 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 17 Models (columns) Types (rows) Task & World Model/ Planning & Decisions Self Model/ Capacity & Limits User Model/ Episodic Memory Institutions Model/ Trust & Social Acts Tool + - - - Assistant ++ + - - Collaborator +++ ++ + - Coach ++++ +++ ++ + Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++ tool assistant collaborator coach mediator
- 18. Value Migration: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 18
- 19. Next generation cognitive curriculum 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 19
- 20. 10/24/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 20 I have… Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?
- 21. Learning to program: My first program 10/24/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 21 Early Computer Science Class: Watson Center at Columbia 1945 Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
- 22. IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing… 10/24/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 22 So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
- 23. 10/24/2016 23 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Can better service help us be wiser? Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach
- 24. 10/24/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 24
- 25. Computing: Then, Now, Projected 10/24/2016 25 2035 2055
- 26. 10/24/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 26
- 27. 10/24/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 27
- 28. What exists in 2016? 10/24/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 28 360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
- 29. Jim Spohrer (IBM) Seoul, South Korea; October 13, 2016 Consulting Conference http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/korea-day1-keynote-20161013-v6 10/24/2016 29 Come visit IBM Research – Almaden in San Jose, CA USA – monthly university day!
- 30. 10/24/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 30
- 31. Build: 10 million minutes of experience 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 31
- 32. Build: 2 million minutes of experience 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 32
- 33. Books 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 33
- 34. Today’s Talk • Four Cool Tech Topics • Today: AI • If time others • Definitions • Perspectives • Industry • IBM • Relationships • Industry 4.0/IoT • Challenge & Opportunity • Too hard to build, understand, and work with AI systems 10/24/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 34
- 35. Definitions: Types of Cognitive System Entities (symbol and pattern processing systems) • Socio-Technical (Organization-based) • Businesses • Cities • Nations • Biological (Brain-based) • People • Animals • Technological (Computation-based) • Embodied (Robot, Car, Device) • Virtual (Local, Cloud) 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 35
- 36. Brief History of AI • 1956 – Dartmouth Conference • 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds • 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation • 1988 – Expert Systems Peak • 1990 – AI Winter • 1997 – Deep Blue • 1997 – 2011 Real-World • 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI • 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute • 2014 – Watson Business Unit & • True North Brain Chip • 2015 – “Cognition as a Service” on IBM Bluemix 10/24/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 36
- 37. Dedication: Douglas C. Engelbart Father of the mouse and augmentation theory 10/24/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 37
- 38. But this stuff is still really hard… 10/24/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 38
- 39. Understand them… 10/24/2016 Understanding Cognitive Systems 39
- 40. 10/24/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 40 What might Reality 2.0 look like?
- 41. How fast is Artificial Intelligence approaching? 10/24/2016 41 What might it look like?
Editor's Notes
- For permission to reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference: Spohrer, J (2016) Industry 4.0 & Service Transformation. Frontiers in Service Conference. Bergen, Norway. June 24, 2016. URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/korea-day1-keynote-20161013-v6
- References Kline SJ (1995) Conceptual foundations for multidisciplinary thinking. Stanford University Press. NSF (2016) Partnerships for Innovation: Building Innovation Capacity (PFI:BIC). Smart Sevice Systems. URL: http://www.nsf.gov/funding/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=504708 T Summit (2016) What is the “T”? URL: http://tsummit.org/t F. Multi-disciplinary research (RFI question 8) Most of the research areas in Section D cannot be achieved by AI researchers alone. Collaboration with experts in multiple disciplines -- such as psychology, philosophy, sociology, art, regulation, and law -- will be crucial. In addition, there is an important role for professional associations with industry-specific knowledge to play in informing AI applications. To this end, IBM is in the process of creating a network of several academic centers to jumpstart the scientific ecosystem.
- Where is the variety? Hardware and even software standardizing into modules and algorithms…. Data will standardize next into categories and types…. Experience is where the uniqueness is, and variety and variability, and identity.
- Today’s talk will explore two questions What should we know how to make? What might programming education become? If we look at history we see a time when people could make only simple things, and often a single person could make them. Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play? Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
- In the 1940’s IBM started teaching computer science at Columbia. My first program – punch cards 1972.
- The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems. By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
- If Moore’s Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing…. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/
- Modha’s Brain - Goal 1KW and 2 Litres…. Dharmendra Modha and his design for a brain chip playing pong: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ3HEVelBFY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqeINGOzIZo https://twitter.com/dharmendramodha/status/545693986149511168
- Many intelligent assistants or cognitive assistants are beginning to appear. (the numbers indicate approximate number of employees at each companuy). More and more companies are working on cognitive assistants – and each month a new company shows up working on their version of an intelligent personal assistant. Make no mistake, like “magnetism” – the company the can first provide all its employees with intelligent personal assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite historic! Prediction 1 – more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects for their customers within ten years Prediction 2 – by 2035 we will be symbiotic with our cognitive assistants Prediction 3 – by 2055 (in part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal infrastructure Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant
- For permission to reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference: Spohrer, J (2016) Startup opportunities for cognitive systems. July 8, 2016. URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/cognitive-startups-20160708-v6
- How Does Siri work – local and Cloud http://www.zdnet.com/article/how-apples-siri-really-works/
- One of my heroes and mentors – Doug Engelbart (1925-2013) Doug and I had several conversations about the relationship between augmentation theory and service science. I wish we could have had many more. Before connecting augmentation theory to service science, I have to travel through some technical areas that are closer to my first two degrees physics at MIT and artificial intelligence at Yale university – but I promise you, I will connect this to service science and smarter service system research agenda….
- Source URL: Mother Jones - http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation