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The Future of Artificial Intelligence:
An IBM Research, Chief Science
Office Cognitive, Perspective
Guru Banavar, IBM VP, Chief Science Office Cognitive
Jim Spohrer, Director, Understanding Cognitive Systems
DRAFT v5: September 7, 2016
Note: This presentation has a companion whitepaper, available on request.
9/7/2016 Future of AI 1
Request:
White House OSTP
• The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy is particularly
interested in responses related to the following topics:
• (1) the legal and governance implications of AI;
• (2) the use of AI for public good;
• (3) the safety and control issues for AI;
• (4) the social and economic implications of AI;
• (5) the most pressing, fundamental questions in AI research, common to
most or all scientific fields;
• (6) the most important research gaps in AI that must be addressed to
advance this field and benefit the public;
• (7) the scientific and technical training that will be needed to take advantage
of harnessing the potential of AI technology;
• (8) the specific steps that could be taken by the federal government,
research institutes, universities, and philanthropies to encourage multi-
disciplinary AI research; and
• (9) the use of open data sets to close fundamental research gaps;
• (10) the role of incentives and prizes to accelerate public benefits;
• (11) any additional information related to AI research or policymaking, not
requested above, that you believe OSTP should consider.
9/7/2016 Future of AI 2
Response: IBM Chief Science Office Cognitive
9/7/2016 Future of AI 3
A. The Use of AI for the Public Good
• Healthcare
• Social Services
• Education
• Financial Services
• Transportation
• Public Safety
• The Environment
• Infrastructure
9/7/2016 Future of AI 4
B. Social and economic
implications of AI
• History: Technologies with broad
potential across industries like AI
increase:
• Productivity
• Earnings
• Job growth
• Adjustment: Social, learning, and
decision making capabilities are
key to acceptance of AI in society
• Underserved: Potential to help
underserved populations and
improve their quality of life
9/7/2016 Future of AI 5
C. Education for
harnessing AI technologies
• Demand: High demand for AI,
machine learning, data science and
related courses; many MOOCs
• Industry Platforms: Growing set of
companies provide learners access to
cognitive service capabilities in their
clouds
• Gap: Need curriculum for learners
with no programming or advanced
mathematics background
9/7/2016 Future of AI 6
D. Fundamental questions
in AI research, and
the most important
research gaps
• Machine learning and reasoning
• Decision techniques
• Domain-specific AI systems
• Data assurance and trust
• Radically efficient computing
infrastructure
9/7/2016 Future of AI 7
E. Data sets that can
accelerate AI research
• Bottleneck: Develop and validate
data sets that are:
• Large and unbiased
• Openly curated
• Publically accessible
• Domains: Novice to expert task
performance is hard to get for all
occupations and industries
• Models: Incentives to share trained
models that require lots of data and
compute time to create
9/7/2016 Future of AI 8
F. Multi-disciplinary
research
• Disciplines: Breadth of disciplines
to tackle issues:
• Psychology and cognitive science,
philosophy, design and art, public
policy and management, law and
regulations
• Systems: Professional associations
to tackle industry and system
issues, including novice to expert
progression on tasks
• Socio-technical system design
loop and smart service systems
9/7/2016 Future of AI 9
G. Role of incentives
and prizes
• Example:
• IBM Watson AI XPrize ($5M)
• Best AI system to empower teams
of people to tackle the world’s
grand challenges
• TED 2020, finalists present
• I-athlon
• More objective scoring
• Rational processes
• Multiple dimensions of intelligence
9/7/2016 Future of AI 10
H. Safety and
control issues for AI
• Trust & Trustworthiness
• Ethical & Social Norms
• Algorithmic Transparency
• Unexpected Interactions
• Safeguards
9/7/2016 Future of AI 11
I. Legal and governance
implications of AI
• Responsible & inclusive dialogue
• Elevate the dialogue
• Algorithmic responsibility
• Individual privacy
• Jobs and workforce transformation
• Safety
• Learn beyond the headlines
• Key: Focus on skills
9/7/2016 Future of AI 12
J. Other issues:
Business models
• Trusted platform
• Training – Unbiased data
• Algorithms - Transparency
• Services - Open API Economy
• Transactions – Blockchain
• Applications – Ethically boosting
creativity and productivity
• Governance – Laws and regulations
• Trust takes time
• Steam engines – boiler explosions
• Cognitive engines – headline hype
9/7/2016 Future of AI 13
Some reactions…
• aitrends
• Artificial Brilliance
• Futurism
• InformationWeek
• Calburn: “IBM: AI Should Stand For
‘Augmented Intelligence’
• PYMNTS
• TechCrunch
• Coldewey: “The White House
requested input on artificial
intelligence, and IBM’s response is a
great AI 101”
9/7/2016 Future of AI 14
White House OSTP
Follow Up
• The White House OSTP received
161 responses and created a 349
downloadable PDF with URL links
• The White House Frontiers
Conference is being planned as a
follow up meeting
• Date: October 13, 2016
• Place: Pittsburgh, PA USA
9/7/2016 Future of AI 15
Acknowledgements
• Sam Adams
• Guru Banavar
• Rob High
• Mark O’Riley
• Francesca Rossi
• Vijay Saraswat
• Anna Sekaran
• John R Smith
• Jim Spohrer
• Peter Williams
9/7/2016 Future of AI 16

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Ibm csoc response_future _ai 20160907 v5

  • 1. The Future of Artificial Intelligence: An IBM Research, Chief Science Office Cognitive, Perspective Guru Banavar, IBM VP, Chief Science Office Cognitive Jim Spohrer, Director, Understanding Cognitive Systems DRAFT v5: September 7, 2016 Note: This presentation has a companion whitepaper, available on request. 9/7/2016 Future of AI 1
  • 2. Request: White House OSTP • The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy is particularly interested in responses related to the following topics: • (1) the legal and governance implications of AI; • (2) the use of AI for public good; • (3) the safety and control issues for AI; • (4) the social and economic implications of AI; • (5) the most pressing, fundamental questions in AI research, common to most or all scientific fields; • (6) the most important research gaps in AI that must be addressed to advance this field and benefit the public; • (7) the scientific and technical training that will be needed to take advantage of harnessing the potential of AI technology; • (8) the specific steps that could be taken by the federal government, research institutes, universities, and philanthropies to encourage multi- disciplinary AI research; and • (9) the use of open data sets to close fundamental research gaps; • (10) the role of incentives and prizes to accelerate public benefits; • (11) any additional information related to AI research or policymaking, not requested above, that you believe OSTP should consider. 9/7/2016 Future of AI 2
  • 3. Response: IBM Chief Science Office Cognitive 9/7/2016 Future of AI 3
  • 4. A. The Use of AI for the Public Good • Healthcare • Social Services • Education • Financial Services • Transportation • Public Safety • The Environment • Infrastructure 9/7/2016 Future of AI 4
  • 5. B. Social and economic implications of AI • History: Technologies with broad potential across industries like AI increase: • Productivity • Earnings • Job growth • Adjustment: Social, learning, and decision making capabilities are key to acceptance of AI in society • Underserved: Potential to help underserved populations and improve their quality of life 9/7/2016 Future of AI 5
  • 6. C. Education for harnessing AI technologies • Demand: High demand for AI, machine learning, data science and related courses; many MOOCs • Industry Platforms: Growing set of companies provide learners access to cognitive service capabilities in their clouds • Gap: Need curriculum for learners with no programming or advanced mathematics background 9/7/2016 Future of AI 6
  • 7. D. Fundamental questions in AI research, and the most important research gaps • Machine learning and reasoning • Decision techniques • Domain-specific AI systems • Data assurance and trust • Radically efficient computing infrastructure 9/7/2016 Future of AI 7
  • 8. E. Data sets that can accelerate AI research • Bottleneck: Develop and validate data sets that are: • Large and unbiased • Openly curated • Publically accessible • Domains: Novice to expert task performance is hard to get for all occupations and industries • Models: Incentives to share trained models that require lots of data and compute time to create 9/7/2016 Future of AI 8
  • 9. F. Multi-disciplinary research • Disciplines: Breadth of disciplines to tackle issues: • Psychology and cognitive science, philosophy, design and art, public policy and management, law and regulations • Systems: Professional associations to tackle industry and system issues, including novice to expert progression on tasks • Socio-technical system design loop and smart service systems 9/7/2016 Future of AI 9
  • 10. G. Role of incentives and prizes • Example: • IBM Watson AI XPrize ($5M) • Best AI system to empower teams of people to tackle the world’s grand challenges • TED 2020, finalists present • I-athlon • More objective scoring • Rational processes • Multiple dimensions of intelligence 9/7/2016 Future of AI 10
  • 11. H. Safety and control issues for AI • Trust & Trustworthiness • Ethical & Social Norms • Algorithmic Transparency • Unexpected Interactions • Safeguards 9/7/2016 Future of AI 11
  • 12. I. Legal and governance implications of AI • Responsible & inclusive dialogue • Elevate the dialogue • Algorithmic responsibility • Individual privacy • Jobs and workforce transformation • Safety • Learn beyond the headlines • Key: Focus on skills 9/7/2016 Future of AI 12
  • 13. J. Other issues: Business models • Trusted platform • Training – Unbiased data • Algorithms - Transparency • Services - Open API Economy • Transactions – Blockchain • Applications – Ethically boosting creativity and productivity • Governance – Laws and regulations • Trust takes time • Steam engines – boiler explosions • Cognitive engines – headline hype 9/7/2016 Future of AI 13
  • 14. Some reactions… • aitrends • Artificial Brilliance • Futurism • InformationWeek • Calburn: “IBM: AI Should Stand For ‘Augmented Intelligence’ • PYMNTS • TechCrunch • Coldewey: “The White House requested input on artificial intelligence, and IBM’s response is a great AI 101” 9/7/2016 Future of AI 14
  • 15. White House OSTP Follow Up • The White House OSTP received 161 responses and created a 349 downloadable PDF with URL links • The White House Frontiers Conference is being planned as a follow up meeting • Date: October 13, 2016 • Place: Pittsburgh, PA USA 9/7/2016 Future of AI 15
  • 16. Acknowledgements • Sam Adams • Guru Banavar • Rob High • Mark O’Riley • Francesca Rossi • Vijay Saraswat • Anna Sekaran • John R Smith • Jim Spohrer • Peter Williams 9/7/2016 Future of AI 16