The document discusses the evolution of computing and cognitive systems from the past to the projected future. It describes how cognitive assistants are beginning to appear for various occupations currently, and how they will become more advanced and ubiquitous over time, with tools being available for nonexperts to build their own assistants. The talk outlines a vision of Reality 2.0 where cognitive systems are integrated into most areas of work and life to enhance productivity and creativity by 2035 and beyond.
Jim Spohrer gave a presentation about smarter and wiser service systems. He discussed how building blocks for artificial intelligence like machine learning and cognitive computing are advancing rapidly. However, he questions whether this is making people wiser. By 2035, cognitive mediators could be tools, assistants, collaborators and coaches that help all people in all roles. This could enable a reality where all entities in a network use cognitive mediators to enhance interactions and co-create value. The goal is assisting individuals and organizations in developing wiser service systems that empower employees, customers and citizens.
The document discusses the potential for cognitive systems and cognitive mediators to enhance human capabilities and help address societal challenges. It describes how machine learning and AI are advancing rapidly, with capabilities like image recognition and question answering growing quickly. By 2035, the presentation suggests cognitive mediators could be tools that know users well and help people in various jobs and roles. The document outlines a vision of smarter service systems and industry where cognitive systems and mediators help improve value co-creation and capabilities.
This document summarizes a presentation about cognitive systems and startup opportunities. It discusses how cognitive building blocks like machine learning, natural language processing, and question answering are improving rapidly. By 2035, it suggests cognitive mediators could help anyone build a question answering system for a textbook in a day. The presentation also discusses opportunities for startups in areas like cognitive assistants for various occupations. It envisions a future where most people have 100 digital workers managed by cognitive mediators that know people better than themselves.
The document discusses the future of skills and talent needed for Industry 4.0. It suggests that future workers will need to have T-shaped skills with both depth in their core discipline and breadth across other areas. Workers will also need skills in empathy, teamwork, and using new "building blocks" like cognitive mediators and AI assistants. By 2035, these cognitive mediators could become common tools that help people collaborate and innovate together on solving grand challenges.
The document discusses various paths to becoming 64 times smarter, including improving learning through better models of concepts and learners, guided learning paths, lifelong learning, and early education. It also discusses gaining performance support through cognitive systems. The next sections discuss the need for future-ready, T-shaped innovators with skills across many disciplines, sectors, and cultures, as well as a deep skill in one area. The presentation recommends educating service innovators and discusses trends in digital natives and future courses that use cognitive systems to enhance learning and build startups.
Jim Spohrer (IBM) gave a presentation on cognitive startups and the future of computing. He discussed how machine learning and AI are advancing rapidly, with capabilities like image tagging and captioning already available. By 2035, he predicted "cognitive mediators" will be tools that know users better than they know themselves and help people in their jobs and daily lives. While machines are getting smarter, developing wisdom requires focusing on inspiring students to use new technologies to solve problems. The future will require "T-shaped" thinkers with broad skills and deep expertise to build a better world.
The document discusses the evolution of computing and cognitive systems from the past to the projected future. It describes how cognitive assistants are beginning to appear for various occupations currently, and how they will become more advanced and ubiquitous over time, with tools being available for nonexperts to build their own assistants. The talk outlines a vision of Reality 2.0 where cognitive systems are integrated into most areas of work and life to enhance productivity and creativity by 2035 and beyond.
Jim Spohrer gave a presentation about smarter and wiser service systems. He discussed how building blocks for artificial intelligence like machine learning and cognitive computing are advancing rapidly. However, he questions whether this is making people wiser. By 2035, cognitive mediators could be tools, assistants, collaborators and coaches that help all people in all roles. This could enable a reality where all entities in a network use cognitive mediators to enhance interactions and co-create value. The goal is assisting individuals and organizations in developing wiser service systems that empower employees, customers and citizens.
The document discusses the potential for cognitive systems and cognitive mediators to enhance human capabilities and help address societal challenges. It describes how machine learning and AI are advancing rapidly, with capabilities like image recognition and question answering growing quickly. By 2035, the presentation suggests cognitive mediators could be tools that know users well and help people in various jobs and roles. The document outlines a vision of smarter service systems and industry where cognitive systems and mediators help improve value co-creation and capabilities.
This document summarizes a presentation about cognitive systems and startup opportunities. It discusses how cognitive building blocks like machine learning, natural language processing, and question answering are improving rapidly. By 2035, it suggests cognitive mediators could help anyone build a question answering system for a textbook in a day. The presentation also discusses opportunities for startups in areas like cognitive assistants for various occupations. It envisions a future where most people have 100 digital workers managed by cognitive mediators that know people better than themselves.
The document discusses the future of skills and talent needed for Industry 4.0. It suggests that future workers will need to have T-shaped skills with both depth in their core discipline and breadth across other areas. Workers will also need skills in empathy, teamwork, and using new "building blocks" like cognitive mediators and AI assistants. By 2035, these cognitive mediators could become common tools that help people collaborate and innovate together on solving grand challenges.
The document discusses various paths to becoming 64 times smarter, including improving learning through better models of concepts and learners, guided learning paths, lifelong learning, and early education. It also discusses gaining performance support through cognitive systems. The next sections discuss the need for future-ready, T-shaped innovators with skills across many disciplines, sectors, and cultures, as well as a deep skill in one area. The presentation recommends educating service innovators and discusses trends in digital natives and future courses that use cognitive systems to enhance learning and build startups.
Jim Spohrer (IBM) gave a presentation on cognitive startups and the future of computing. He discussed how machine learning and AI are advancing rapidly, with capabilities like image tagging and captioning already available. By 2035, he predicted "cognitive mediators" will be tools that know users better than they know themselves and help people in their jobs and daily lives. While machines are getting smarter, developing wisdom requires focusing on inspiring students to use new technologies to solve problems. The future will require "T-shaped" thinkers with broad skills and deep expertise to build a better world.
The document summarizes a panel discussion on skills for digital transformation. It introduces the panel chairs and members, which include professors, administrators, and an IBM vice president. Short biographies are provided for several of the panel members, including Theodor Borangiu, a professor from University Politehnica of Bucharest who founded research centers; Thierry Picq, an academic dean and professor of human resources management; and Gary Kildare, a vice president of human resources at IBM with over 30 years of international experience.
The document discusses the emergence of smarter service systems and cognitive assistants. By 2035, tools will allow students to build basic question answering systems from textbooks within a week and faculty-level systems within a day. People will have over 100 cognitive assistants working for them by 2055. The document argues that cognitive mediators will know individuals better than they know themselves by 2035. Ultimately, cognitive systems working through cognitive mediators could empower organizations, employees and customers by assisting in closing skills gaps and co-creating smarter service systems in a collaborative economy.
This document discusses the development of smart, people-centered service systems and cognitive assistants for all occupations. It describes how computing capabilities have developed from early computer programs in the 1970s to modern capabilities like image tagging and automatic captioning. The document envisions continued growth in cognitive abilities, with tools being able to build basic question answering systems within a week by 2025 and advanced systems within a day by 2035. It proposes that by 2035, people will have "cognitive mediators" that act as tools, assistants, collaborators and coaches. The goal is for wise service systems where all entities use cognitive mediators to enhance value creation through interactions and empathy. The document argues this will require developing future-ready, "T-
The document discusses the history and future of artificial intelligence and cognitive computing, including milestones from the Dartmouth Conference in 1956 to modern systems like Watson, and a vision for the role of cognitive systems in augmenting human intelligence and capabilities by 2035 through tools like cognitive mediators. It also addresses the types and capabilities of different digital cognitive systems, partnerships in AI research, and applications of cognitive computing in areas like education, healthcare and more.
The document is IBM's response to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy's request for input on artificial intelligence. It addresses 11 topics, providing an overview of key issues like the use of AI for public good, the social and economic implications of AI, important research gaps, and the need for multi-disciplinary collaboration and open data sets to advance the field safely. It recommends focusing on skills and having a responsible dialogue to develop AI for societal benefit.
The document provides an overview of IBM Research - Almaden and IBM's university programs. It discusses IBM's history and growth, from punch cards to brain chips. It highlights IBM's work in cognitive computing through projects like Watson and the TrueNorth chip. The presentation emphasizes the importance of universities in driving innovation and the future, and how IBM partners with universities through programs like IBM Research - Almaden. It also discusses IBM's vision of augmenting human expertise through cognitive technologies and building smarter service systems.
Provides information to users, but has limited capabilities and does not collaborate or make complex decisions.
Collaborator: Works with users as a partner, able to understand tasks and goals, make recommendations, and collaborate to find solutions. However, it does not coach users or mediate between different perspectives.
Coach: Guides and supports users through personalized feedback and recommendations based on their specific needs and goals. A coach understands a user's strengths and weaknesses and helps them improve in all aspects of their lives. However, a coach does not mediate between different perspectives.
Mediator: Facilitates understanding and resolution of conflicts between different individuals or groups. A mediator understands all perspectives involved in a complex situation and helps people find common ground and
1) Jim Spohrer from IBM discusses Cognition as a Service (CaaS), where cognitive capabilities from AI such as natural language processing, machine learning, and decision support become available as services in the cloud and on devices.
2) Building cognitive systems is still challenging, but will become easier over the next 10 years as the building blocks of AI improve.
3) Spohrer advocates developing a new curriculum to help people build, understand, and work with cognitive systems as they continue to advance.
The document discusses progress being made in artificial intelligence, including timelines for when AI may reach human-level capabilities in different areas, who the leaders are in driving AI progress, and how individuals and organizations can prepare for the future of AI by learning skills like programming and participating in online AI challenges and leaderboards.
The document discusses IBM's Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG) and its director Jim Spohrer. CSIG works to build cognitive systems and platforms using techniques from fields like natural language processing, machine learning, and neuromorphic computing. The goal is to develop cognitive assistants that can augment human expertise to help solve complex problems. Universities are seen as important partners in this work through collaborations on research and by inspiring students to help build smarter service systems for the future.
The document summarizes Jim Spohrer's presentation on open innovation and the singularity with regards to the future of industries and business models. Spohrer discusses how business models and technologies co-evolve, with value propositions changing from saving time to reducing costs to providing more value through user models and building blocks. He predicts that by 2035, most people will have at least one cognitive assistant, and by 2055, people will have 100 cognitive assistants each. Spohrer also outlines the CSIG (Cognitive Systems Institute Group) model of collaboration between IBM and universities to advance research in cognitive systems.
The document discusses the development of smarter service systems through cognitive augmentation. It covers:
1) The growing market for exoskeletons and other robotic technologies that will be integrated into our lives through devices like clothing, vehicles, homes, and cities.
2) How cognitive systems can augment people and organizations, making "smart service systems" that enhance human performance.
3) The need to develop "intelligence augmentation" through partnerships between people and intelligent machines, rather than just focusing on artificial intelligence alone.
This document summarizes a presentation on the future of AI given by Jim Spohrer of IBM Research. Some key points from the presentation include:
- AI progress is being measured using open leaderboards to benchmark progress on tasks like question answering, translation, and video understanding.
- The timeline for solving different AI/IA tasks ranges from the next 5-10 years for pattern recognition to 20-30 years for commonsense reasoning and human-level performance.
- Preparing for the AI future involves participating in open source AI communities on GitHub and open challenges on platforms like Kaggle. It also involves learning skills like rapidly rebuilding systems from scratch.
- Both the benefits and risks of AI include impacts on jobs
The document discusses engineering robots and cognitive systems to augment humans and create smarter service systems, highlighting how cognitive tools can take various forms from assistants to mediators and how they will continue improving over time as they gain more experience and people work together with these systems.
The document discusses next generation cognitive curriculums and evolving education with cognitive and data sciences. It describes key building blocks for artificial and augmented intelligence including learning, perception, reasoning, interaction and knowledge. It also discusses building blocks for augmented intelligence including science, design, business value, societal impact, and interdisciplinarity. The document presents IBM's cognitive system build approach and types of cognitive system entities. It provides a brief history of AI and discusses challenges in building, understanding and working with cognitive systems.
This document provides an overview of IBM and its university programs from a presentation given by Jim Spohrer, the director of IBM's Global University Programs and Cognitive Systems Institute Group. Some key points:
1. IBM operates globally with over 400,000 employees and has grown through acquisitions. It leads in patent generation and many employees work remotely.
2. IBM has had a presence in Silicon Valley since 1943 and helped establish the region's technology industry. It now does research in areas like new materials, cognitive systems, and cloud computing.
3. IBM works with universities to inspire students to build the future, and views them as where the future is emerging. Its university programs aim to accelerate regional development through
The panel discussion addressed predictions for the future of industries, business models, and cognitive technologies. Some predictions included tools being available by 2025 to build student-level question answering from textbooks in a week and by 2035 to build faculty-level question answering in a day. The discussion also suggested most people having at least one cognitive assistant by 2035 and 100 assistants by 2055. The panel proposed a model for university and IBM collaboration around cognitive systems research. They advocated identifying weak links in areas like energy, water, and trust and augmenting entities with cognitive mediators to boost value co-creation by 2035.
Jim Spohrer (IBM) gave a presentation on AI trends at Watson West in San Francisco on June 27, 2017. The presentation covered:
1) Progress in AI capabilities from 1955 to the present day and projections out to 2035 and 2055, including the evolution of cognitive systems from tools to mediators.
2) Examples of current AI technologies like image tagging and natural language processing and how they are being used to augment human work.
3) A vision for the future where "cognitive mediators" will know users better than they know themselves and help people in their personal and professional lives.
4) The importance of developing "T-shaped" skills in the next generation by gaining
This document provides an overview of IBM's work in cognitive computing and artificial intelligence. It discusses IBM's research areas like machine learning, natural language processing, and knowledge representation. It provides a brief history of AI and defines the differences between AI and intelligence augmentation. The document outlines IBM's vision of cognitive systems augmenting workers in different occupations and industries. It showcases some of IBM's cognitive products and services like Watson Discovery Advisor and user modeling capabilities. Overall, the document presents IBM's perspective on the progress and future of cognitive computing.
The document summarizes a panel discussion on skills for digital transformation. It introduces the panel chairs and members, which include professors, administrators, and an IBM vice president. Short biographies are provided for several of the panel members, including Theodor Borangiu, a professor from University Politehnica of Bucharest who founded research centers; Thierry Picq, an academic dean and professor of human resources management; and Gary Kildare, a vice president of human resources at IBM with over 30 years of international experience.
The document discusses the emergence of smarter service systems and cognitive assistants. By 2035, tools will allow students to build basic question answering systems from textbooks within a week and faculty-level systems within a day. People will have over 100 cognitive assistants working for them by 2055. The document argues that cognitive mediators will know individuals better than they know themselves by 2035. Ultimately, cognitive systems working through cognitive mediators could empower organizations, employees and customers by assisting in closing skills gaps and co-creating smarter service systems in a collaborative economy.
This document discusses the development of smart, people-centered service systems and cognitive assistants for all occupations. It describes how computing capabilities have developed from early computer programs in the 1970s to modern capabilities like image tagging and automatic captioning. The document envisions continued growth in cognitive abilities, with tools being able to build basic question answering systems within a week by 2025 and advanced systems within a day by 2035. It proposes that by 2035, people will have "cognitive mediators" that act as tools, assistants, collaborators and coaches. The goal is for wise service systems where all entities use cognitive mediators to enhance value creation through interactions and empathy. The document argues this will require developing future-ready, "T-
The document discusses the history and future of artificial intelligence and cognitive computing, including milestones from the Dartmouth Conference in 1956 to modern systems like Watson, and a vision for the role of cognitive systems in augmenting human intelligence and capabilities by 2035 through tools like cognitive mediators. It also addresses the types and capabilities of different digital cognitive systems, partnerships in AI research, and applications of cognitive computing in areas like education, healthcare and more.
The document is IBM's response to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy's request for input on artificial intelligence. It addresses 11 topics, providing an overview of key issues like the use of AI for public good, the social and economic implications of AI, important research gaps, and the need for multi-disciplinary collaboration and open data sets to advance the field safely. It recommends focusing on skills and having a responsible dialogue to develop AI for societal benefit.
The document provides an overview of IBM Research - Almaden and IBM's university programs. It discusses IBM's history and growth, from punch cards to brain chips. It highlights IBM's work in cognitive computing through projects like Watson and the TrueNorth chip. The presentation emphasizes the importance of universities in driving innovation and the future, and how IBM partners with universities through programs like IBM Research - Almaden. It also discusses IBM's vision of augmenting human expertise through cognitive technologies and building smarter service systems.
Provides information to users, but has limited capabilities and does not collaborate or make complex decisions.
Collaborator: Works with users as a partner, able to understand tasks and goals, make recommendations, and collaborate to find solutions. However, it does not coach users or mediate between different perspectives.
Coach: Guides and supports users through personalized feedback and recommendations based on their specific needs and goals. A coach understands a user's strengths and weaknesses and helps them improve in all aspects of their lives. However, a coach does not mediate between different perspectives.
Mediator: Facilitates understanding and resolution of conflicts between different individuals or groups. A mediator understands all perspectives involved in a complex situation and helps people find common ground and
1) Jim Spohrer from IBM discusses Cognition as a Service (CaaS), where cognitive capabilities from AI such as natural language processing, machine learning, and decision support become available as services in the cloud and on devices.
2) Building cognitive systems is still challenging, but will become easier over the next 10 years as the building blocks of AI improve.
3) Spohrer advocates developing a new curriculum to help people build, understand, and work with cognitive systems as they continue to advance.
The document discusses progress being made in artificial intelligence, including timelines for when AI may reach human-level capabilities in different areas, who the leaders are in driving AI progress, and how individuals and organizations can prepare for the future of AI by learning skills like programming and participating in online AI challenges and leaderboards.
The document discusses IBM's Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG) and its director Jim Spohrer. CSIG works to build cognitive systems and platforms using techniques from fields like natural language processing, machine learning, and neuromorphic computing. The goal is to develop cognitive assistants that can augment human expertise to help solve complex problems. Universities are seen as important partners in this work through collaborations on research and by inspiring students to help build smarter service systems for the future.
The document summarizes Jim Spohrer's presentation on open innovation and the singularity with regards to the future of industries and business models. Spohrer discusses how business models and technologies co-evolve, with value propositions changing from saving time to reducing costs to providing more value through user models and building blocks. He predicts that by 2035, most people will have at least one cognitive assistant, and by 2055, people will have 100 cognitive assistants each. Spohrer also outlines the CSIG (Cognitive Systems Institute Group) model of collaboration between IBM and universities to advance research in cognitive systems.
The document discusses the development of smarter service systems through cognitive augmentation. It covers:
1) The growing market for exoskeletons and other robotic technologies that will be integrated into our lives through devices like clothing, vehicles, homes, and cities.
2) How cognitive systems can augment people and organizations, making "smart service systems" that enhance human performance.
3) The need to develop "intelligence augmentation" through partnerships between people and intelligent machines, rather than just focusing on artificial intelligence alone.
This document summarizes a presentation on the future of AI given by Jim Spohrer of IBM Research. Some key points from the presentation include:
- AI progress is being measured using open leaderboards to benchmark progress on tasks like question answering, translation, and video understanding.
- The timeline for solving different AI/IA tasks ranges from the next 5-10 years for pattern recognition to 20-30 years for commonsense reasoning and human-level performance.
- Preparing for the AI future involves participating in open source AI communities on GitHub and open challenges on platforms like Kaggle. It also involves learning skills like rapidly rebuilding systems from scratch.
- Both the benefits and risks of AI include impacts on jobs
The document discusses engineering robots and cognitive systems to augment humans and create smarter service systems, highlighting how cognitive tools can take various forms from assistants to mediators and how they will continue improving over time as they gain more experience and people work together with these systems.
The document discusses next generation cognitive curriculums and evolving education with cognitive and data sciences. It describes key building blocks for artificial and augmented intelligence including learning, perception, reasoning, interaction and knowledge. It also discusses building blocks for augmented intelligence including science, design, business value, societal impact, and interdisciplinarity. The document presents IBM's cognitive system build approach and types of cognitive system entities. It provides a brief history of AI and discusses challenges in building, understanding and working with cognitive systems.
This document provides an overview of IBM and its university programs from a presentation given by Jim Spohrer, the director of IBM's Global University Programs and Cognitive Systems Institute Group. Some key points:
1. IBM operates globally with over 400,000 employees and has grown through acquisitions. It leads in patent generation and many employees work remotely.
2. IBM has had a presence in Silicon Valley since 1943 and helped establish the region's technology industry. It now does research in areas like new materials, cognitive systems, and cloud computing.
3. IBM works with universities to inspire students to build the future, and views them as where the future is emerging. Its university programs aim to accelerate regional development through
The panel discussion addressed predictions for the future of industries, business models, and cognitive technologies. Some predictions included tools being available by 2025 to build student-level question answering from textbooks in a week and by 2035 to build faculty-level question answering in a day. The discussion also suggested most people having at least one cognitive assistant by 2035 and 100 assistants by 2055. The panel proposed a model for university and IBM collaboration around cognitive systems research. They advocated identifying weak links in areas like energy, water, and trust and augmenting entities with cognitive mediators to boost value co-creation by 2035.
Jim Spohrer (IBM) gave a presentation on AI trends at Watson West in San Francisco on June 27, 2017. The presentation covered:
1) Progress in AI capabilities from 1955 to the present day and projections out to 2035 and 2055, including the evolution of cognitive systems from tools to mediators.
2) Examples of current AI technologies like image tagging and natural language processing and how they are being used to augment human work.
3) A vision for the future where "cognitive mediators" will know users better than they know themselves and help people in their personal and professional lives.
4) The importance of developing "T-shaped" skills in the next generation by gaining
This document provides an overview of IBM's work in cognitive computing and artificial intelligence. It discusses IBM's research areas like machine learning, natural language processing, and knowledge representation. It provides a brief history of AI and defines the differences between AI and intelligence augmentation. The document outlines IBM's vision of cognitive systems augmenting workers in different occupations and industries. It showcases some of IBM's cognitive products and services like Watson Discovery Advisor and user modeling capabilities. Overall, the document presents IBM's perspective on the progress and future of cognitive computing.
The document discusses cognition-as-a-service (CaaS) from a service science perspective. It outlines the evolving capabilities of cognitive systems, from tools to assistants to collaborators and coaches. As cognitive mediators become more advanced, they will be able to understand users better than users understand themselves. The document also examines challenges like building experience for cognitive systems and addressing societal and policy implications as these systems take on more responsibilities. The goal is for cognitive systems to help make users wiser through access to growing cognitive capabilities as a service.
The document discusses cognition-as-a-service (CaaS) from a service science perspective. It describes how cognitive systems are evolving from tools to assistants, collaborators, coaches and mediators. It also discusses how cognitive capabilities are being applied across different domains like education, healthcare, transportation and more. The talk outlines challenges and opportunities around developing cognitive systems and ensuring their safe, fair and beneficial use.
This document discusses cognition-as-a-service (CaaS) from a service science perspective. It provides a brief history of artificial intelligence and outlines the building blocks of intelligence, including augmented science, design, business, and societal impact. The document envisions future "cognitive mediator" tools that could serve as assistants, collaborators, coaches, and mediators. It also discusses the progression of cognitive systems from simple tools to more advanced mediators and the need to consider rights and responsibilities as these systems are developed.
The document summarizes a presentation on the future of AI. It discusses measuring progress through leaderboards, with countries like Korea and China leading in industrial robot adoption. It outlines questions around timelines for solving AI, who is driving progress, and potential benefits and risks. These include job loss as a short term risk and superintelligence as a longer term risk. Other technologies like augmented reality may have a bigger impact. Stakeholders in AI include individuals, businesses, governments, and more. The presentation emphasizes preparing for AI through participating in open source projects, leaderboard challenges, and learning about related fields.
Jim Spohrer from IBM gave a presentation at the NSF about the future of AI and education. He discussed that AI progress is being measured using open leaderboards and benchmarks. The timeline for solving difficult AI problems like commonsense reasoning and learning from reading is estimated to be between 2021-2030. The biggest benefits of AI will be increased productivity and access to expertise, while the main risks are job loss and potential for misuse. Other technologies like augmented reality may have an even bigger impact. Stakeholders in AI include individuals, businesses, and governments. To prepare for AI, people should learn skills like coding and understanding open source tools and data.
Jim Spohrer from IBM gave a talk on the future of AI. Some key points:
1) IBM is heavily involved in open source AI through its Cognitive Opentech Group and projects on GitHub. Leaderboards like SQuAD are used to measure progress.
2) The timeline for solving difficult AI problems like commonsense reasoning and learning from experience is 5-10 more years. Job and skills impacts will be felt sooner.
3) Stakeholders at all levels need to participate in and learn about open source AI to help build the future and prepare for changes. Understanding how to rapidly rebuild systems from scratch will be important.
The document discusses cognitive assistants and smart service systems. Cognitive assistants are systems that use language, learning, levels of confidence in recommendations, and potential physical embodiments to assist humans. Smart service systems are networks where all entities use cognitive mediators to enhance value co-creation interactions. The talk outlines how cognitive assistants could support various occupations by assisting with individual tasks. It also discusses IBM's work on cognitive systems, platforms, and components that could enable the development of advanced cognitive assistants and smart service systems in the future.
Managing Professional Development in BrightspaceD2L Barry
Presentation at 2018 D2L London Connection by Alan Hiddleston and Israel Rosales, D2L.
Major agenda items: 1) Professional Development today, and 2) Brightspace Demo
The document discusses how data and cognitive technologies can empower people and communities. It describes how technologies like cloud computing, the internet of things, cognitive systems, and analytics can generate valuable insights from data. When combined with new computing architectures like neuromorphic systems, these technologies will enable a new generation of cognitive applications that can augment human expertise. The document argues that these cognitive technologies, when developed responsibly, have the potential to tackle important challenges and create economic opportunities in various industries and sectors including agriculture.
This document summarizes a talk given by Jim Spohrer from IBM on moving from cognitive to wise computing using a service science perspective. Some key points from the talk include:
- Cognitive systems are getting smarter, but the goal is to make them wiser by considering their roles, capabilities, constraints, rights and responsibilities within complex service systems.
- Systems could progress from tools to assistants to collaborators and potentially moral entities if designed properly.
- Cognitive assistants could augment many occupations and roles through smart service systems.
- A service science perspective looks at the ecology of relationships between different service system entities.
The document discusses preparing for the future of artificial intelligence. It provides a timeline for solving major AI problems from 2012 to 2035. Leaders in AI are discussed as China, the US, Europe, and other regions. Companies like Microsoft, Google, and IBM are highlighted. The biggest benefits of AI are seen as access to expertise, improved productivity and collaborations. Risks include potential job losses and risks from bad actors if superintelligence is achieved. Other technologies like augmented reality, blockchain, and new materials/energy systems may have an even bigger impact. Stakeholders that need to prepare include individuals, businesses, industries, and governments at all levels.
This document discusses the future of artificial intelligence (AI) and provides timelines and considerations. It addresses key questions such as the timeline for solving AI, leaders in the field, potential benefits and risks of AI, other impactful technologies, implications for stakeholders, and how to prepare for AI. The presentation outlines a framework for progress in AI capabilities from narrow to broad to general AI. It also discusses emerging technologies like augmented reality, blockchain, advanced materials and their potential impacts.
The document discusses future directions and timelines for artificial intelligence (AI). It provides a projected timeline for when different AI capabilities may be achieved and at what cost. Some key points discussed include:
- By 2040, "narrow AI" systems capable of specific tasks like recognition may cost around $1,000, and "broad AI" systems capable of reasoning may follow by 2060 at similar costs.
- Labor costs are projected to decrease over time relative to the decreasing costs of AI systems, with digital workers potentially outcompeting human labor on a cost basis.
- An framework of AI progress and capabilities is presented, spanning perception, cognition, relationships and roles. Milestones and benchmark leaderboards are discussed
Jim from IBM discusses various topics related to artificial intelligence including:
- The timeline for solving different AI problems and reaching human-level performance on benchmarks.
- Leaders and communities driving progress in open source AI.
- Potential benefits of AI including increasing productivity and GDP, as well as risks that need to be addressed.
- Preparing students and citizens for future jobs and skills needed in an increasingly automated world.
- The importance of open source communities working on challenges like bias and fairness in AI.
Preparing the next generation for the cognitive era - NFAIS KeynoteSteven Miller
Keynote address at NFAIS 2016 in Philadelphia PA on February 21st 2016 focused on how the Cogntive Era is transforming our lives, creating new careers, and inspiring innovation.
Spohrer on AI for SIRs Post 125 20240618 v6.pptxISSIP
Sons in Retirement (SIRs)
Post 125 San Jose
Host - Gene Plevyak
URL: https://sirinc2.org/branch125/
We are SIR Westgate Branch 125
We meet on the third Tuesday of the month
at the Three Flames Restaurant
1547 Meridian Ave., San Jose
Fellowship Hour: 11:00 AM
Host Santokh Badesha: https://www.linkedin.com/in/santokh-badesha-24b72916/
Recommended Readings (If Possible, Skim Before the Talk)
Patent: Management of Usage Costs of a Resource (IBM)
Jim Spohrer patent: Graphical Interface for Interacting Constrained Actors (Apple)
Jim Spohrer's Google Scholar Profile, includes open publications as well as patents
Apple's ATG Authoring Tools - Balancing Open and Proprietary Work
Forbes - Cognitive World
AI Magazine - Role of Open Source in AI
AI and Education 20240327 v16 for Northeastern.pptxISSIP
Prof. Mark L. Miller (https://www.linkedin.com/in/mlmiller751/), Northeastern University, class on AI and Education
Speaker: Jim Spohrer (https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/)
===
Speaker: Dr. Jim Spohrer, retired Apple and IBM executive, currently Board of Directors for ISSIP.org (International Society of Service Innovation Professionals).
Title: AI and Education: A Historical Perspective and Possible Future Directions
Abstract: This talk will briefly survey my 50 years working in the area of AI & Education. At MIT (1974- 1978), MIT's summer EXPLO schools for AI and entrepreneurship classes. At Verbex (1978-1982), speech recognition, language models, early generative AI. At Yale (1982-1989), MARCEL, a generate- test-and-debug architecture and student model of programming bugs. At Apple (1989-1998), from content (SK8) to community (EOE) to context (WorldBoard). At IBM (1999 - 2021), service science and open source AI. At ISSIP (2021-present), generative AI and digital twins.
Bio:Jim’s Bio (142 words):
Jim Spohrer is a student of service science and open-source, trusted AI. He is a retired industry executive (Apple, IBM), who is a member of the Board of Directors of the non-profit International Society of Service Innovation Professionals (ISSIP). At IBM, he served as Director for Open Source AI/Data, Global University Programs, IBM Almaden Service Research, and CTO IBM Venture Capital Relations Group. At Apple, he achieved Distinguished Engineer Scientist Technologist (DEST) for authoring and learning platforms. After MIT (BS/Physics), he developed speech recognition systems at Verbex (Exxon), then Yale (PhD/Computer Science AI). With over ninety publications and nine patents, awards include AMA ServSIG Christopher Lovelock Career Contributions to the Service Discipline, Evert Gummesson Service Research, Vargo-Lusch Service-Dominant Logic, Daniel Berg Service Systems, and PICMET Fellow for advancing service science. In 2021, Jim was appointed a UIDP Senior Fellow (University-Industry Demonstration Partnership).
Readings:Apple's ATG Authoring Tools:
URL: https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/279044.279173 Blog: WorldBoard
URL: https://service-science.info/archives/2060 Blog: Reflecting on Generative AI and Digital Twins
URL: https://service-science.info/archives/6521 Book: Service in the AI Era
Attached: Pages 46-54.Video: Speech Recognition (History)
URL: https://youtu.be/G9z4VAsw_kw
Thanks, -Jim
--Jim Spohrer, PhDBoard of Directors, ISSIP (International Society of Service Innovation Professionals) Board of Directors, ServCollab ("Serving Humanity Through Collaboration")Senior Fellow, UIDP ("Strengthening University-Industry Partnerships")Retired Industry Executive (Apple, IBM)
March 20, 2024
Host Ganesan Narayanasamy (https://www.linkedin.com/in/ganesannarayanasamy/)
Uploaded here:
===
Event 20230320
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ganesannarayanasamy_productnation-semiconductorproductnation-activity-7174119132114620418-jvpx
Themed Shaping a Sustainable $1 Trillion Era, semicondynamics.org 2024 will gather industry experts on March 20th at Milpitas, California , for insights into the latest trends and innovations Accelerating AI with Semiconductor RTL Front end services and workforce development. The event will feature keynotes from the Semiconductor ecosystem, academia and Industries.
March 20, 2024
Host Ganesan Narayanasamy (https://www.linkedin.com/in/ganesannarayanasamy/)
Uploaded here:
===
Event 20230320
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ganesannarayanasamy_productnation-semiconductorproductnation-activity-7174119132114620418-jvpx
Themed Shaping a Sustainable $1 Trillion Era, semicondynamics.org 2024 will gather industry experts on March 20th at Milpitas, California , for insights into the latest trends and innovations Accelerating AI with Semiconductor RTL Front end services and workforce development. The event will feature keynotes from the Semiconductor ecosystem, academia and Industries.
Jim Spohrer is an advisor to industry, academia, governments, startups and non-profits on topics of AI upskilling, innovation strategy, and win-win service in the AI era. He is a retired IBM executive and was previously the director of IBM's open-source AI developer ecosystem effort. In this talk, Spohrer discusses topics such as how to keep up with accelerating change, verifying results from generative AI, and understanding how generative AI works through concepts like monkeys at typewriters in high dimensional spaces. He emphasizes balancing hype with realism and doing work alongside gaining knowledge.
This document contains notes from a presentation by Jim Spohrer on leadership, career experiences, and technology topics. The presentation covers collaborating with others, teamwork practices, storytelling, communication skills, leadership habits and mindsets. It includes links to Spohrer's online profiles and resources. Tables provide estimates of increasing GDP per employee over time and a timeline of Spohrer's career highlights and accomplishments in the fields of service science and artificial intelligence.
It my pleasure to be with you all today – thanks to my host for the opportunity to speak with you all today.
Host: Leonard Walletzky <qwalletz@fi.muni.cz> (https://www.linkedin.com/in/leonardwalletzky/) +420 549 49 7690
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=aUvbsmwAAAAJ&hl=cs
Katrina Motkova (https://www.linkedin.com/in/kateřina-moťková-mba-a964a3175/en/?originalSubdomain=cz)
Speaker: Jim Spohrer <spohrer@gmail.com> (https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/) +1-408-829-3112
I am Jim Spohrer, a retired Apple and IBM Executive, and currently a UIDP Senior Fellow, on the Board of Directors of ISSIP and ServCollab.
I am retired, meaning my primary activities are family-oriented – families are the oldest and most important type of service systems
I volunteer to help non-profits, mentor students, professionals, and retiree (some in retirement communities where the average age is 85) on AI & service science
My hobbies are hiking, reading, programming, and building my AI digital twin and humanoid robots for maintaining farms and farming equipment.
My hobbies are also trying to understand as much as I can about the system called the universe and mult-verse, and robots to rapidly rebuild civilization including themselves from scratch.
2001 - Nonzero: The Logic of Human Desitiny (Wright) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonzero:_The_Logic_of_Human_Destiny
2015 - Geek Heresy: Rescuing Social Change from the Cult of Technology - https://www.amazon.com/Geek-Heresy-Rescuing-Social-Technology/dp/161039528X
2021 - Humankind: A Hopeful History (Bregman) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humankind:_A_Hopeful_History
Humankind - https://www.amazon.com/Humankind-Hopeful-History-Rutger-Bregman/dp/0316418536
Humankind Book Review - https://service-science.info/archives/5654
2022 - Service in the AI Era: Science, Logic, and Architecture Perspectives (2022) by Spohrer, Maglio, Vargo, Warg - https://www.amazon.com/Service-AI-Era-Architecture-Perspectives/dp/1637423039
2023 - Design for a Better World: Meaningful, Sustainable, Humanity-Centered (2023) by Don Norman - https://www.amazon.com/Design-Better-World-Meaningful-Sustainable/dp/0262047950/
It my pleasure to be with you all today – thanks to my host for the opportunity to speak with you all today.
Host: Leonard Walletzky <qwalletz@fi.muni.cz> (https://www.linkedin.com/in/leonardwalletzky/) +420 549 49 7690
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=aUvbsmwAAAAJ&hl=cs
Katrina Motkova (https://www.linkedin.com/in/kateřina-moťková-mba-a964a3175/en/?originalSubdomain=cz)
Speaker: Jim Spohrer <spohrer@gmail.com> (https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/) +1-408-829-3112
I am Jim Spohrer, a retired Apple and IBM Executive, and currently a UIDP Senior Fellow, on the Board of Directors of ISSIP and ServCollab.
I am retired, meaning my primary activities are family-oriented – families are the oldest and most important type of service systems
I volunteer to help non-profits, mentor students, professionals, and retiree (some in retirement communities where the average age is 85) on AI & service science
My hobbies are hiking, reading, programming, and building my AI digital twin and humanoid robots for maintaining farms and farming equipment.
My hobbies are also trying to understand as much as I can about the system called the universe and mult-verse, and robots to rapidly rebuild civilization including themselves from scratch.
2001 - Nonzero: The Logic of Human Desitiny (Wright) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonzero:_The_Logic_of_Human_Destiny
2015 - Geek Heresy: Rescuing Social Change from the Cult of Technology - https://www.amazon.com/Geek-Heresy-Rescuing-Social-Technology/dp/161039528X
2021 - Humankind: A Hopeful History (Bregman) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humankind:_A_Hopeful_History
Humankind - https://www.amazon.com/Humankind-Hopeful-History-Rutger-Bregman/dp/0316418536
Humankind Book Review - https://service-science.info/archives/5654
2022 - Service in the AI Era: Science, Logic, and Architecture Perspectives (2022) by Spohrer, Maglio, Vargo, Warg - https://www.amazon.com/Service-AI-Era-Architecture-Perspectives/dp/1637423039
2023 - Design for a Better World: Meaningful, Sustainable, Humanity-Centered (2023) by Don Norman - https://www.amazon.com/Design-Better-World-Meaningful-Sustainable/dp/0262047950/
Brno-IESS 20240206 v10 service science ai.pptxISSIP
It my pleasure to be with you all today – thanks to my host for the opportunity to speak with you all today.
Host: Leonard Walletzky <qwalletz@fi.muni.cz> (https://www.linkedin.com/in/leonardwalletzky/) +420 549 49 7690
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=aUvbsmwAAAAJ&hl=cs
Katrina Motkova (https://www.linkedin.com/in/kateřina-moťková-mba-a964a3175/en/?originalSubdomain=cz)
Speaker: Jim Spohrer <spohrer@gmail.com> (https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/) +1-408-829-3112
NordicHouse 20240116 AI Quantum IFTF dfiscussionv7.pptxISSIP
Jim Spohrer presented on AI and quantum computing. He discussed the history of AI from the 1955 Dartmouth workshop to modern advances like AlphaGo, GPT-3, and DALL-E 2. Spohrer noted that computation costs have decreased exponentially over time, driving increases in knowledge worker productivity. He highlighted several experts and resources he follows to stay informed on AI capabilities and implications. Spohrer sees opportunities to improve learning and performance through advances in learning sciences, technology, lifelong learning, and early education. The talk addressed how generative AI works and challenges around verification.
20240104 HICSS Panel on AI and Legal Ethical 20240103 v7.pptxISSIP
20240103 HICSS Panel
Ethical and legal implications raised by Generative AI and Augmented Reality in the workplace.
Souren Paul - https://www.linkedin.com/in/souren-paul-a3bbaa5/
Event: https://kmeducationhub.de/hawaii-international-conference-on-system-sciences-hicss/
Congratulations to the organizers of the “Symposium for Celebrating 40 Years of Bayesian Learning in Speech and Language Processing” and to Prof. Chin-Hui Lee of Georgia Tech the Honorary Chair of the Symposium.
Thanks to Huck Yang (Amazon) for the invitation to record this short message.
Huck Yang
URL: https://www.linkedin.com/in/huckyang/
Event: https://bayesian40.github.io
Recording:
Slides:
URL: https://professionalschool.eitdigital.eu/generative-ai-essentials
Course on Generative Al
Description:
Generative AI is a world-changing power tool that is getting better by the day. So now is the time to get truly inspired, climb up the learning curve, and unleash more of your creative potential.
Learning Topics:
* Inspiration: What is Generative AI in the context of AI's history, present, and future
* Climbing Up: Ways to accelerate your learning trajectory
* Unleashing Creativity: Ways to stay future-ready in the AI era
What You'll Take Away:
By the end of this session, you'll understand the importance of upskilling with today's generative AI tools to get more work done, both faster and at higher quality, as well as some pitfalls to avoid, all within the broader context of the past, present, and future of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Intelligence Augmentation (IA).
Learning Topics
Inspiration: What is Generative AI in the context of AI's history, present, and future.
Climbing Up: Ways to accelerate your learning trajectory.
Unleashing Creativity: Ways to stay future-ready in the AI era.
Deep dive into ChatGPT's features.
Techniques for basic and advanced prompting and real-world applications.
- Service science has progressed significantly in the past two decades since its inception in the early 2000s.
- However, there is still a long way to go to fully realize the potential of service science and its role in areas like upskilling with AI.
- Looking ahead, some of the biggest challenges will be upskilling entire nations with AI for digital transformation, while also decarbonizing nations through sustainable energy infrastructure - both accomplished through service-based business models.
Leveraging Generative AI to Drive Nonprofit InnovationTechSoup
In this webinar, participants learned how to utilize Generative AI to streamline operations and elevate member engagement. Amazon Web Service experts provided a customer specific use cases and dived into low/no-code tools that are quick and easy to deploy through Amazon Web Service (AWS.)
Chapter wise All Notes of First year Basic Civil Engineering.pptxDenish Jangid
Chapter wise All Notes of First year Basic Civil Engineering
Syllabus
Chapter-1
Introduction to objective, scope and outcome the subject
Chapter 2
Introduction: Scope and Specialization of Civil Engineering, Role of civil Engineer in Society, Impact of infrastructural development on economy of country.
Chapter 3
Surveying: Object Principles & Types of Surveying; Site Plans, Plans & Maps; Scales & Unit of different Measurements.
Linear Measurements: Instruments used. Linear Measurement by Tape, Ranging out Survey Lines and overcoming Obstructions; Measurements on sloping ground; Tape corrections, conventional symbols. Angular Measurements: Instruments used; Introduction to Compass Surveying, Bearings and Longitude & Latitude of a Line, Introduction to total station.
Levelling: Instrument used Object of levelling, Methods of levelling in brief, and Contour maps.
Chapter 4
Buildings: Selection of site for Buildings, Layout of Building Plan, Types of buildings, Plinth area, carpet area, floor space index, Introduction to building byelaws, concept of sun light & ventilation. Components of Buildings & their functions, Basic concept of R.C.C., Introduction to types of foundation
Chapter 5
Transportation: Introduction to Transportation Engineering; Traffic and Road Safety: Types and Characteristics of Various Modes of Transportation; Various Road Traffic Signs, Causes of Accidents and Road Safety Measures.
Chapter 6
Environmental Engineering: Environmental Pollution, Environmental Acts and Regulations, Functional Concepts of Ecology, Basics of Species, Biodiversity, Ecosystem, Hydrological Cycle; Chemical Cycles: Carbon, Nitrogen & Phosphorus; Energy Flow in Ecosystems.
Water Pollution: Water Quality standards, Introduction to Treatment & Disposal of Waste Water. Reuse and Saving of Water, Rain Water Harvesting. Solid Waste Management: Classification of Solid Waste, Collection, Transportation and Disposal of Solid. Recycling of Solid Waste: Energy Recovery, Sanitary Landfill, On-Site Sanitation. Air & Noise Pollution: Primary and Secondary air pollutants, Harmful effects of Air Pollution, Control of Air Pollution. . Noise Pollution Harmful Effects of noise pollution, control of noise pollution, Global warming & Climate Change, Ozone depletion, Greenhouse effect
Text Books:
1. Palancharmy, Basic Civil Engineering, McGraw Hill publishers.
2. Satheesh Gopi, Basic Civil Engineering, Pearson Publishers.
3. Ketki Rangwala Dalal, Essentials of Civil Engineering, Charotar Publishing House.
4. BCP, Surveying volume 1
Andreas Schleicher presents PISA 2022 Volume III - Creative Thinking - 18 Jun...EduSkills OECD
Andreas Schleicher, Director of Education and Skills at the OECD presents at the launch of PISA 2022 Volume III - Creative Minds, Creative Schools on 18 June 2024.
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...PsychoTech Services
A proprietary approach developed by bringing together the best of learning theories from Psychology, design principles from the world of visualization, and pedagogical methods from over a decade of training experience, that enables you to: Learn better, faster!
This document provides an overview of wound healing, its functions, stages, mechanisms, factors affecting it, and complications.
A wound is a break in the integrity of the skin or tissues, which may be associated with disruption of the structure and function.
Healing is the body’s response to injury in an attempt to restore normal structure and functions.
Healing can occur in two ways: Regeneration and Repair
There are 4 phases of wound healing: hemostasis, inflammation, proliferation, and remodeling. This document also describes the mechanism of wound healing. Factors that affect healing include infection, uncontrolled diabetes, poor nutrition, age, anemia, the presence of foreign bodies, etc.
Complications of wound healing like infection, hyperpigmentation of scar, contractures, and keloid formation.
Philippine Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) CurriculumMJDuyan
(𝐓𝐋𝐄 𝟏𝟎𝟎) (𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝟏)-𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐬
𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐏𝐏 𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐮𝐦 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬:
- Understand the goals and objectives of the Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) curriculum, recognizing its importance in fostering practical life skills and values among students. Students will also be able to identify the key components and subjects covered, such as agriculture, home economics, industrial arts, and information and communication technology.
𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐜𝐨𝐩𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧 𝐄𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐮𝐫:
-Define entrepreneurship, distinguishing it from general business activities by emphasizing its focus on innovation, risk-taking, and value creation. Students will describe the characteristics and traits of successful entrepreneurs, including their roles and responsibilities, and discuss the broader economic and social impacts of entrepreneurial activities on both local and global scales.
This presentation was provided by Rebecca Benner, Ph.D., of the American Society of Anesthesiologists, for the second session of NISO's 2024 Training Series "DEIA in the Scholarly Landscape." Session Two: 'Expanding Pathways to Publishing Careers,' was held June 13, 2024.
Geography as a Discipline Chapter 1 __ Class 11 Geography NCERT _ Class Notes...
Norway frontiers 20160624 v3
1. Jim Spohrer (IBM)
Bergen, Norway – Frontiers in Service, Conference
Friday June 24,, 2016
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/norway-frontiers-20160624-v3
6/23/2016 1
Industry 4.0: A Digital Service Transformation
15. Tomorrow: Servitization
• Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers
• Make the product part of a smart/wise service system
– Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything
– Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’
performance across their life-cycles
– Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product
performance, efficiency, maintenance, etc.
– Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with
financing/Internet of Service
– Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability
– Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability
• Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for
service innovation) for innovative university startups
16. Vision: MMaaRRSS
• Modular Manufacturing as a Regional
Recirculation Service System
– “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for
customer Y.”
– Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows
– Minimize transport costs (for products and waste)
• The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)
17. Assisting individuals and organizations
to close their service innovation skills gap
and co-create wiser service systems
empowering employees, customers, citizens
with cognitive mediators
in the collaborative service economy
18. 6/23/2016 18
1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Can better service help us be wiser?
Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach
19. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
36. By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great
Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators
6/23/2016 36
Empathy & Teamwork
sector
region/culture
discipline
Depth
Breadth
STEM
Liberal Arts
48. Courses
2015
– “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”
– 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy
– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject
2025
– “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”
– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week
2035
– “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”
– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day
– Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves
2055
– “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”
– Most people have 100 digital workers.
6/23/2016 48
49. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
For permission to reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com
Reference:
Spohrer, J (2016) Industry 4.0 & Service Transformation. Frontiers in Service Conference. Bergen, Norway. June 24, 2016.
URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/norway-bergen-20160624-v3
4th is a cyber-physcial systems.
We are talking about the Frontiers of Service here – and Roland has long predicted information and service converge in some hard to imagine way…
The 50% of taxi cab drivers that are scared of driverless cars can only think about skillset.
The 50% of tax cab drivers that are not scared of driveless cars are all over mindset…
The key is to think of everything in term of the data/information associated with it across it complete life-cycle form cradle-to-cradle, and redo the business model to benefit provider-customer-and-other stakeholders
Changing the Dominant Logic: http://blog.egonl.com/?m=200902
Rolls Royce: http://www.economist.com/node/18073351
The Circular Economy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCRKvDyyHmI
The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems.
By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains.
Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine.
However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
Today’s talk will explore two questions
What should we know how to make?
What might programming education become?
If we look at history we see a time when people could make only simple things, and often a single person could make them.
Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play?
Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
In the 1940’s IBM started teaching computer science at Columbia.
My first program – punch cards 1972.
If you ask some very smart people, what are societal grand challenges – what will they tell you?
The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems.
By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains.
Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine.
However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
Many intelligent assistants or cognitive assistants are beginning to appear. (the numbers indicate approximate number of employees at each companuy).
More and more companies are working on cognitive assistants – and each month a new company shows up working on their version of an intelligent personal assistant.
Make no mistake, like “magnetism” – the company the can first provide all its employees with intelligent personal assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite historic!
Prediction 1 – more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects for their customers within ten years
Prediction 2 – by 2035 we will be symbiotic with our cognitive assistants
Prediction 3 – by 2055 (in part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal infrastructure
Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant
CM1 to CM2 “Once they stop talking about the weather, do you think we should let them know together they could potentially cure cancer?”
Source: http://tsummit.org
Modha’s Brain - Goal 1KW and 2 Litres….
Dharmendra Modha and his design for a brain chip playing pong:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ3HEVelBFY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqeINGOzIZo
https://twitter.com/dharmendramodha/status/545693986149511168
Source URL: Mother Jones - http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation
If Moore’s Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing…. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people).
Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000.
Source:
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
Was Moore’s Law inevitable?
http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/
O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990’s – it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc.
O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists – and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time.
Source:
http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=0
Here is what I tell students....
... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era:
(0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy;
- another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope")
- today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly
- debater is an example of where we would like to get to though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY
- more about the ambitions at http://cognitive-science.info
(1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and produce a Q&A system
- the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions
(2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions
(3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000
- an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at 20W power)
(4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many ways better than they know themselves
- memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid, etc.
(5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for them"
- better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a course taught at university
In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era...
In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook....
In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook....
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2
By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be in full force.
Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features:
Suits - body suit cell phones
Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the information to us - and what we know and our goals.
Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research team....
The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness - and note especially the wellness suit at the end:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL
Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.
By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena?
Physics is the science that helps us understand the the external world – across many scales.
Picture of star formation
https://www.bnl.gov/science/physics.php
Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena?
Cognitive science, including brain science, neuroscience, psychology and other areas, is the study of the internal world.
Artificial intelligence is the science and engineering discipline trying to build smart machines – or what we at IBM call cognitive systems. Cognitive assistants are cognitive systems with capabilities of natural language, learning, and levels (of confidence) in recommendations to people trying to use them to make decisions, and some cognitive assistants have more than 3 L’s, they also have a 4th L – limbs – those cognitive assistants are robots.
Picture of physics and the brain...
http://medimoon.com/2014/04/drayson-foundation-donation-to-tackle-the-girls-in-physics-conundrum/
However, at the end of the day, even with more creative and productive people…. With the 2035 symbiosis of people and their cognitive assistants, we are left trying to explain external phenomena and internal phenomena, as well as to create possible future worlds…
The natural sciences of course include physics, chemistry, and biology.
The cogntive science are not as well understood, but people are increasing aware of neuroscience (brain science), psychology, and artificial intelligence – which inform cognitive science.
Finally, the least understood and newest is service science. Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service sytem entities with capabilities, contraints, rights, and responsibilities – but also importantly with imagination! The humanities and fiction are a great source of possible future worlds. We just have to design and edcuate the next generation to engineer, manage, and set in place public policy that allows us to realize possible future worlds that we would like to live in.
Source: Regis Lemmes http://www.slideshare.net/SalesCubes/sales-cocreation-35336385
These concerns about what could possibly go wrong with cognitive mediators are real, so how can science help provide answers to help us make good choices in creating our future?
Image sources:
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51oBLyAHXzL._SX327_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg
Alone in the Wilderness (1968) – Dick Proenneke - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYJKd0rkKss
Open Source Ecology is one branch of the Makers Movement with the goal of making it easier for individual to make the industrial machines most needed in civilization…
“Open Source Blueprints for Civilization. Build Yourself.
We’re developing open source industrial machines that can be made for a fraction of commercial costs, and sharing our designs online for free. The goal of Open Source Ecology is to create an open source economy – an efficient economy which increases innovation by open collaboration.
“
Source: http://opensourceecology.org/
One of my heroes and mentors – Doug Engelbart (1925-2013)
Doug and I had several conversations about the relationship between augmentation theory and service science. I wish we could have had many more.
Before connecting augmentation theory to service science, I have to travel through some technical areas that are closer to my first two degrees physics at MIT and artificial intelligence at Yale university – but I promise you, I will connect this to service science and smarter service system research agenda….
Obvious things to do….. With the mission of cognitive assistants for all occupations in smart service systems.
http://www.cognitive-science.info
https://www.linkedin.com/groups/Cognitive-Systems-Institute-6729452