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EIT DIGITAL
Session 1
Nov. 28: Jim Spohrer & Marco Podien
Session 2
Dec. 5: Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez
Session 3
Dec 12: Edwin M. Colella
Session 4
Dec 19: Neema Balolebwami Nelly & Gry Hasselbalch
• Jim
• Inspiration: Generative AI in the context of AI's history, present, and future.
• Climbing Up: Ways to accelerate your learning trajectory.
• Unleashing Creativity: Ways to stay future-ready in the AI era.
• Marco
• Deep dive into ChatGPT's features.
• Techniques for basic and advanced prompting and real-world applications.
Today’s Learning Topics
1956
2023
2060 2080
1956
First AI
Workshop
2023
ChatGPT 100M
users in just 2
months
(1.5B visits in Sept)
2060 (Predicted)
Exascale for $1000
(~ one human
brain)
2080 (Predicted)
Ronnascale for $1B
(~ billion human brains)
Progress in IA (Intelligence Augmentation) for nations can be estimated as
GPD/worker.
Progress in AI (Artificial Intelligence) is directly connected to the cost of
computing.
REMEMBER THESE DATES
• First impressions
• Insanely great productivity
• Insanely great quality
• Awesome progress, but…
• Impressive
• Imperfect
• What is really going on?
• Decreasing cost of computation
• Increasing GDP/worker
• Advantage of empowered people
Inspiration
Icons of AI Progress
• 1955-1956: Dartmouth Workshop organized by:
• Two early career faculty
• John McCarthy (Dartmouth, later Stanford)
• Marvin Minsky (MIT)
• Two senior industry scientists
• Claude Shannon (Bell Labs)
• Nathan Rochester (IBM)
• 1997: Deep Blue (IBM) - Chess
• 2011: Watson Jeopardy! (IBM)
• 2016: AlphaGo (Google DeepMinds)
• 2017: All you need is attention (Google) - Transformers
• Attention heads (working memory) to predict what comes next
• 2018: AlphaFold (Google DeepMinds)
• 2020: Language models are few-shot learners (OpenAI)
• 2022: DALL-E 2 & ChapGPT (OpenAI)
• 2022: Constitutional AI (Anthropic) – “Behave yourself!”
• 2023: New Bing+ (Microsoft) & GPT-4 (OpenAI)
• 2023: ?Q* (OpenAI) - to reduce hallucinations (generation stage errors)
11/27/2023
pohrer
http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/history/dartmouth/dartmouth.html https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf
1955 2023
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Time
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
$1,000,000,000,000
(Trillion)
$1,000,000
(Million)
$1,000,000,000
(Billion)
$1,000
(Thousand)
$1
Cost
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
$1,000,000,000,000
(Trillion)
$1,000,000
(Million)
$1,000,000,000
(Billion)
$1,000
(Thousand)
$1
Cost of Computation (Diagonals)
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
$1,000,000,000,000
(Trillion)
$1,000,000
(Million)
$1,000,000,000
(Billion)
$1,000
(Thousand)
$1
Cost of Computation (Diagonals)
Note: Adjust Kilo and Mega scales slightly to fit data better (early days – more cost – learning curve).
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
$1,000,000,000,000
(Trillion)
$1,000,000
(Million)
$1,000,000,000
(Billion)
$1,000
(Thousand)
$1
GDP/Employee
Trend
Estimating Knowledge Worker Productivity
Based on USA
Historical Data
Year Value
1960 $10K
1980 $33K
2000 $78K
2020. $151K
2023 $169K
Cost of computation goes down by 1000x every 20 years (left to right diagonals), driving knowledge worker productivity up.
7September 2018 / © 2018 IBM Corporation
Petaflops = 1,000,000,000,000,000 or a million
billion = 10 ** 15
Megaflops = 1,000,000 = million = 10 ** 6
Gigaflops = 1,000,000,000 = billion = 10 ** 9
One of the AI Super Computers in the World,
= 13 MegaWatts of Power (HOT!)
8September 2018 / © 2018 IBM Corporation
Exascale = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 or a
billion billion = 10 ** 18
Megaflops = 1,000,000 = million = 10 ** 6
Gigaflops = 1,000,000,000 = billion = 10 ** 9
Human Brain
= 20 Watts (COOL!)
“NorthPole Chip”
Far less energy.
Impressive, but imperfect
Physical realm: Energy
Social realms: Digital property theft
• How to keep up with accelerating change?
• Social learning
• Who do you follow?
• What kind of person are you?
• Let’s level set…
• *** Survey ***
• Diving in!
• We get the future we invest in
• … so invest wisely
• Awesome stuff that lies ahead
Climbing Up
Optimistic Realistic
Knowing
Doing
How to keep up with accelerating change? Follow a diverse collection of people… make up dimensions meaningful to you!
Sadly for me… my brain is biased into thinking I can understand older, white, males the best… maybe AI can help overcome!
Let’s level set – how many of you know about…
Ethan Mollick (UPenn Wharton) Don Norman (UC San Diego)
Scott Pelley (CBS, 60 Minutes)
Tristan Harris and Aza Raskin
(Center for Humane Technology) Generative AI Tools
To Output:
Text/Writing
Images
Code/Programming
Videos
Audio
Music
Game Worlds
Digital Twin
Other?
11/27/2023
r (ISSIP.org)
Survey
Q: How often are you using a generative AI tool?
a. Never
b. Occasionally
c. At least once a week
d. Multiple times a day
Q: How many generative AI tools have you used?
a. None
b. One
c. A few
d. Over a dozen
We get the future we invest in:
AI tools to experiment with today
• #1 Magic Eraser
• #2 Craiyon
• #3 Rytr And GPT-3, ChatGPT, GPT-4, Bing
• #4 Thing Translator
• #5 Autodraw
• #6 Fontjoy
• #7 Talk to Book
• #8 This Person Does Not Exist
• #9 Namelix
• #10 Let's Enhance
Thanks to @TessaRDavis
for compiling this list:
“Service providers
will not be replaced by AI,
but trusted service providers
who use AI (well and responsibly)
will replace those who don’t.”
National Academy - Service Systems and AI
27
Try at least two
from the list
as soon as possible
What do you think?
, DALL-E and Stable Diffusion
Every person in a role in an organization is a service provider.
11/27/2023
• How to stay future ready?
• Learn the building blocks
• Marco Podien will help you with ChatGPT building block shortly…
• Oh, by the way, you are going to need bigger goals too
• When you have 100 digital workers working for you, what is your main goal?
• From serial entrepreneur to parallel entrepreneur
• Use Q&A feature – almost time for Q&A
Unleashing Creativity
11/27/2023
1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Learn: Explore and Exploit Better Building Blocks
Read Wakefield
(2020)
enough to
understand what a
”digital twin” of
you might be like in
the future decades
with very advanced
AI capabilities.
Also see Rouse
(2018; 2022) ”Life
with a Cognitive
Assistant.”
ervice Systems and AI
AI Tools
in coming
decades…
11/27/2023
11/27/2023
Innovation Professionals (ISSIP.org)
Advice…
1. AI upskill
2. Build your
“digital twin”
3. Set bigger
goals(*)
(*) This directly implies learning better strategies for coping with failures, and resiliently rebounding.
Two disciplines: Two approaches to the future
Artificial Intelligence is almost seventy-years-old discipline in computer
science that studies automation and builds more capable technological
systems. AI tries to understand the intelligent things that people can do
and then does those things with technology. (https://deepmind.com/about “...
we aim to build advanced AI - sometimes known as Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) - to
expand our knowledge and find new answers. By solving this, we believe we could help
people solve thousands of problems.”)
Service science is an emerging transdiscipline not yet twenty-years- old
that studies transformation and builds smarter and wiser socoi-
technical systems – families, businesses, nations, platforms and other
special types of responsible entities and their win-win interactions that
transform value co-creation and capability co-elevation mechanisms
that build more resilient future versions of themselves – what we call
service systems entities. Service science tries to understand the
evolving ecology of service system entities, their capabilities,
constraints, rights, and responsibilities, and then then seeks to improve
the quality of life of people (present/smarter and future/wiser) in those
service systems.
Artificial Intelligence
Automation
Generations of machines
Service Science
Transformation
Generations of people
(responsible entities)
Service systems are dynamic configurations of people,
technology, organizations, and information, connected
internally and externally by value propositions, to other
service system entities. (Maglio et al 2009)
Jim Spohrer is a Silicon Valley-based Advisor to industry, academia, governments,
startups and non-profits on topics of AI upskilling, innovation strategy, and win-
win service in the AI era. Most recently with a consulting team working for a top
10 market cap global company, he contributed to a strategic plan for a globally
connected AI Academy for achieving rapid, nation-scale upskilling with AI. With
the US National Academy of Engineering, he co-led a 2022 workshop on “Service
Systems Engineering in the Era of Human-Centered AI” to improve well-being.
Jim is a retired IBM Executive since July 2021, and previously directed IBM’s open-
source Artificial Intelligence developer ecosystem effort, was CTO IBM Venture
Capital Group, co-founded IBM Almaden Service Research, and led IBM Global
University Programs. In the 1990’s at Apple Computer, as a Distinguished Engineer
Scientist and Technologist, he was executive lead on next generation learning
platforms. In the 1970’s, after his MIT BS in Physics, he developed speech
recognition systems at Verbex (Exxon) before receiving his Yale PhD in Computer
Science/AI. In 1989, prior to joining Apple, he was a visiting scholar at the
University of Rome, La Sapienza advising doctoral students working on AI and
Education dissertations. With over ninety publications and nine patents, he
received the Christopher Lovelock Career Contributions to the Service Discipline
award, Gummesson Service Research award, Vargo and Lusch Service-Dominant
Logic award, Daniel Berg Service Systems award, and a PICMET Fellow for
advancing service science. Jim was elected and previously served as Linux
Foundation AI & Data Technical Advisory Board Chairperson and ONNX Steering
Committee Member (2020-2021). Today, he is a UIDP Senior Fellow for
contributions to industry-university collaborations, and a member of the Board of
Directors of the International Society of Service Innovation (ISSIP) and ServCollab.
Jim Spohrer, Advisor
Retired Industry Executive (Apple, IBM)
UIDP Senior Fellow
Board of Directors, ServCollab
Board of Directors, ISSIP.org
Changemaker Priorities
1. Service Innovation
2. Upskilling with AI
3. Future Universities
4. Geothermal Energy
5. Poverty Reduction
6. Regional Development
Competitive Parity
Technologies
1. AI & Robotics
2. Digital Twins
3. Open Source
4. AR/VR/XR
5. Geothermal
6. Learning
Platforms
Thank-you for
participating today!
You are all awesome!!
Backup Slides
Template slides and others
Topics for Discussion
• Beyond Language for Communications
• Here is how my AI, using my digital twin of you, predicted that you would respond to my
request – could you please ask your digital twin of yourself to check this response and
suggest improvements?
• How to keep up with accelerating change?
• Who do you follow? What two main dimensions do you try to balance? Hype-buster <->
Super-Optimist, Doing (Try this) <-> Knowing (News)
• How to verify results of generative AI?
• How to deal with verification challenge? Run Open AI ChatGPT 3.5, Google Bard (waiting
for Gemini), Anthopic’s Claude, Microsoft Bing power by Open AI ChatGPT 4 – in parallel
and have them critique each others’ responses (where they agree, where and how they
differ) – if possible, also run Meta and open source to compare (Generate-Test-and-
Debug)
• How to deeply understand how generative AI works?
• Monkey’s at the typewrite in high dimensional spaces that map to low dimensional spaces
• One dimensional space is time – what comes next? (Predictors, unsupervised learning)
• Two dimensional space is what people gravitate towards in business schools (Sorters,
supervised learning)
Today’s talk
• Intro: AI (by 1955 definition) has arrived
• Just took 68 years, but…
• What’s really going on?
• Your data is becoming your AI… IA transformation
• AI Digital Twin = IA (Intelligence Augmentation)
• Adjustment period underway…
• Part 1: Solving AI: Leaderboards/Profession Exams
• Roadmap and implications
• Open technologies, innovation
• Part 2: Solving IA: Better Building Blocks
• Solving problems faster, creates new problems
• Identity, social contracts, trust, resilience
• Part 3: ”Solving All Problems”
• What could go wrong? Be prepared.
• 37-year long adjustment period is now underway…
11/27/2023
pohrer
Predict the Timeline: GDP/Employee
National Academy - Service Systems and AI 38
(Source)
Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations
Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
Alistair Nolan (OECD AI for Science Productivity): “It has been stated that the number of engineers proclaiming the end of Moore's Law doubles every two years.”
Rouse WB, Spohrer JC. (2018) Automating versus augmenting intelligence. Journal of Enterprise Transformation. 2018 Apr 3;8(1-2):1-21.
Read Rouse & Spohrer (2018)
enough to understand this slide
including what ”exascale” means
11/22/22
Part 1: Solving AI
Types: Progression of Models : Verified, Trusted, Wise
Models = instruction_set of future: Better building blocks
11/27/2023
Understanding Cognitive Systems
39
Task & World Model/
Planning & Decisions
Self Model/
Capacity & Limits
User Model/
Episodic Memory
Institutions Model/
Trust & Social Acts
Tool + - - -
Assistant ++ + - -
Collaborator +++ ++ + -
Coach ++++ +++ ++ +
Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++
Cognitive
Tool
Cognitive
Assistant
Cognitive
Collaborator
Cognitive
Coach
Cognitive
Mediator
Part 2: Solving IA
Solving IA also requires
All of this and done well
As a “bicycle for the mind”
To make us stronger,
Not weaker
When tech is all removed
Resilience:
Rapidly Rebuilding From Scratch
• Dartnell L (2012) The Knowledge: How to
Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a
Cataclysm. Westminster London: Penguin
Books.
11/27/2023
Jim Spohrer (ISSIP)
40
Part 3: “Solving All Problems”
Long slide title
Awesome subtitle
Slide title
Slide subtitle
Slide content
Slide title
Box Box content Box Box content
• Slide bullet points
• Elaborating
• On
• Awesome
• Tech and
• Business
Slide Title
BOX 1
Subtitle for box
BOX 2
Subtitle for box
Transaction finalization
Block 2
text
Block 3 text
Block 1
text
Slide title
Box 3
Slide title
Slide subtitle
Slide title
Meet the team
Thank you
ANNEX

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EIT-Digital_Spohrer_AI_Intro 20231128 v1.pptx

  • 2. Session 1 Nov. 28: Jim Spohrer & Marco Podien
  • 3. Session 2 Dec. 5: Antonio Nieto-Rodriguez
  • 4. Session 3 Dec 12: Edwin M. Colella
  • 5. Session 4 Dec 19: Neema Balolebwami Nelly & Gry Hasselbalch
  • 6. • Jim • Inspiration: Generative AI in the context of AI's history, present, and future. • Climbing Up: Ways to accelerate your learning trajectory. • Unleashing Creativity: Ways to stay future-ready in the AI era. • Marco • Deep dive into ChatGPT's features. • Techniques for basic and advanced prompting and real-world applications. Today’s Learning Topics
  • 7. 1956 2023 2060 2080 1956 First AI Workshop 2023 ChatGPT 100M users in just 2 months (1.5B visits in Sept) 2060 (Predicted) Exascale for $1000 (~ one human brain) 2080 (Predicted) Ronnascale for $1B (~ billion human brains) Progress in IA (Intelligence Augmentation) for nations can be estimated as GPD/worker. Progress in AI (Artificial Intelligence) is directly connected to the cost of computing. REMEMBER THESE DATES
  • 8. • First impressions • Insanely great productivity • Insanely great quality • Awesome progress, but… • Impressive • Imperfect • What is really going on? • Decreasing cost of computation • Increasing GDP/worker • Advantage of empowered people Inspiration
  • 9.
  • 10. Icons of AI Progress • 1955-1956: Dartmouth Workshop organized by: • Two early career faculty • John McCarthy (Dartmouth, later Stanford) • Marvin Minsky (MIT) • Two senior industry scientists • Claude Shannon (Bell Labs) • Nathan Rochester (IBM) • 1997: Deep Blue (IBM) - Chess • 2011: Watson Jeopardy! (IBM) • 2016: AlphaGo (Google DeepMinds) • 2017: All you need is attention (Google) - Transformers • Attention heads (working memory) to predict what comes next • 2018: AlphaFold (Google DeepMinds) • 2020: Language models are few-shot learners (OpenAI) • 2022: DALL-E 2 & ChapGPT (OpenAI) • 2022: Constitutional AI (Anthropic) – “Behave yourself!” • 2023: New Bing+ (Microsoft) & GPT-4 (OpenAI) • 2023: ?Q* (OpenAI) - to reduce hallucinations (generation stage errors) 11/27/2023 pohrer
  • 12. 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 Time
  • 13. 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 $1,000,000,000,000 (Trillion) $1,000,000 (Million) $1,000,000,000 (Billion) $1,000 (Thousand) $1 Cost
  • 14. 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 $1,000,000,000,000 (Trillion) $1,000,000 (Million) $1,000,000,000 (Billion) $1,000 (Thousand) $1 Cost of Computation (Diagonals)
  • 15. 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 $1,000,000,000,000 (Trillion) $1,000,000 (Million) $1,000,000,000 (Billion) $1,000 (Thousand) $1 Cost of Computation (Diagonals) Note: Adjust Kilo and Mega scales slightly to fit data better (early days – more cost – learning curve).
  • 16. 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 $1,000,000,000,000 (Trillion) $1,000,000 (Million) $1,000,000,000 (Billion) $1,000 (Thousand) $1 GDP/Employee Trend Estimating Knowledge Worker Productivity Based on USA Historical Data Year Value 1960 $10K 1980 $33K 2000 $78K 2020. $151K 2023 $169K Cost of computation goes down by 1000x every 20 years (left to right diagonals), driving knowledge worker productivity up.
  • 17. 7September 2018 / © 2018 IBM Corporation Petaflops = 1,000,000,000,000,000 or a million billion = 10 ** 15 Megaflops = 1,000,000 = million = 10 ** 6 Gigaflops = 1,000,000,000 = billion = 10 ** 9 One of the AI Super Computers in the World, = 13 MegaWatts of Power (HOT!)
  • 18. 8September 2018 / © 2018 IBM Corporation Exascale = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 or a billion billion = 10 ** 18 Megaflops = 1,000,000 = million = 10 ** 6 Gigaflops = 1,000,000,000 = billion = 10 ** 9 Human Brain = 20 Watts (COOL!)
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 22. Impressive, but imperfect Physical realm: Energy Social realms: Digital property theft
  • 23. • How to keep up with accelerating change? • Social learning • Who do you follow? • What kind of person are you? • Let’s level set… • *** Survey *** • Diving in! • We get the future we invest in • … so invest wisely • Awesome stuff that lies ahead Climbing Up
  • 24. Optimistic Realistic Knowing Doing How to keep up with accelerating change? Follow a diverse collection of people… make up dimensions meaningful to you! Sadly for me… my brain is biased into thinking I can understand older, white, males the best… maybe AI can help overcome!
  • 25. Let’s level set – how many of you know about… Ethan Mollick (UPenn Wharton) Don Norman (UC San Diego) Scott Pelley (CBS, 60 Minutes) Tristan Harris and Aza Raskin (Center for Humane Technology) Generative AI Tools To Output: Text/Writing Images Code/Programming Videos Audio Music Game Worlds Digital Twin Other? 11/27/2023 r (ISSIP.org)
  • 26. Survey Q: How often are you using a generative AI tool? a. Never b. Occasionally c. At least once a week d. Multiple times a day Q: How many generative AI tools have you used? a. None b. One c. A few d. Over a dozen
  • 27. We get the future we invest in: AI tools to experiment with today • #1 Magic Eraser • #2 Craiyon • #3 Rytr And GPT-3, ChatGPT, GPT-4, Bing • #4 Thing Translator • #5 Autodraw • #6 Fontjoy • #7 Talk to Book • #8 This Person Does Not Exist • #9 Namelix • #10 Let's Enhance Thanks to @TessaRDavis for compiling this list: “Service providers will not be replaced by AI, but trusted service providers who use AI (well and responsibly) will replace those who don’t.” National Academy - Service Systems and AI 27 Try at least two from the list as soon as possible What do you think? , DALL-E and Stable Diffusion Every person in a role in an organization is a service provider. 11/27/2023
  • 28. • How to stay future ready? • Learn the building blocks • Marco Podien will help you with ChatGPT building block shortly… • Oh, by the way, you are going to need bigger goals too • When you have 100 digital workers working for you, what is your main goal? • From serial entrepreneur to parallel entrepreneur • Use Q&A feature – almost time for Q&A Unleashing Creativity
  • 29. 11/27/2023 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Learn: Explore and Exploit Better Building Blocks
  • 30. Read Wakefield (2020) enough to understand what a ”digital twin” of you might be like in the future decades with very advanced AI capabilities. Also see Rouse (2018; 2022) ”Life with a Cognitive Assistant.” ervice Systems and AI AI Tools in coming decades… 11/27/2023
  • 31. 11/27/2023 Innovation Professionals (ISSIP.org) Advice… 1. AI upskill 2. Build your “digital twin” 3. Set bigger goals(*) (*) This directly implies learning better strategies for coping with failures, and resiliently rebounding.
  • 32. Two disciplines: Two approaches to the future Artificial Intelligence is almost seventy-years-old discipline in computer science that studies automation and builds more capable technological systems. AI tries to understand the intelligent things that people can do and then does those things with technology. (https://deepmind.com/about “... we aim to build advanced AI - sometimes known as Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) - to expand our knowledge and find new answers. By solving this, we believe we could help people solve thousands of problems.”) Service science is an emerging transdiscipline not yet twenty-years- old that studies transformation and builds smarter and wiser socoi- technical systems – families, businesses, nations, platforms and other special types of responsible entities and their win-win interactions that transform value co-creation and capability co-elevation mechanisms that build more resilient future versions of themselves – what we call service systems entities. Service science tries to understand the evolving ecology of service system entities, their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities, and then then seeks to improve the quality of life of people (present/smarter and future/wiser) in those service systems. Artificial Intelligence Automation Generations of machines Service Science Transformation Generations of people (responsible entities) Service systems are dynamic configurations of people, technology, organizations, and information, connected internally and externally by value propositions, to other service system entities. (Maglio et al 2009)
  • 33. Jim Spohrer is a Silicon Valley-based Advisor to industry, academia, governments, startups and non-profits on topics of AI upskilling, innovation strategy, and win- win service in the AI era. Most recently with a consulting team working for a top 10 market cap global company, he contributed to a strategic plan for a globally connected AI Academy for achieving rapid, nation-scale upskilling with AI. With the US National Academy of Engineering, he co-led a 2022 workshop on “Service Systems Engineering in the Era of Human-Centered AI” to improve well-being. Jim is a retired IBM Executive since July 2021, and previously directed IBM’s open- source Artificial Intelligence developer ecosystem effort, was CTO IBM Venture Capital Group, co-founded IBM Almaden Service Research, and led IBM Global University Programs. In the 1990’s at Apple Computer, as a Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist, he was executive lead on next generation learning platforms. In the 1970’s, after his MIT BS in Physics, he developed speech recognition systems at Verbex (Exxon) before receiving his Yale PhD in Computer Science/AI. In 1989, prior to joining Apple, he was a visiting scholar at the University of Rome, La Sapienza advising doctoral students working on AI and Education dissertations. With over ninety publications and nine patents, he received the Christopher Lovelock Career Contributions to the Service Discipline award, Gummesson Service Research award, Vargo and Lusch Service-Dominant Logic award, Daniel Berg Service Systems award, and a PICMET Fellow for advancing service science. Jim was elected and previously served as Linux Foundation AI & Data Technical Advisory Board Chairperson and ONNX Steering Committee Member (2020-2021). Today, he is a UIDP Senior Fellow for contributions to industry-university collaborations, and a member of the Board of Directors of the International Society of Service Innovation (ISSIP) and ServCollab. Jim Spohrer, Advisor Retired Industry Executive (Apple, IBM) UIDP Senior Fellow Board of Directors, ServCollab Board of Directors, ISSIP.org Changemaker Priorities 1. Service Innovation 2. Upskilling with AI 3. Future Universities 4. Geothermal Energy 5. Poverty Reduction 6. Regional Development Competitive Parity Technologies 1. AI & Robotics 2. Digital Twins 3. Open Source 4. AR/VR/XR 5. Geothermal 6. Learning Platforms
  • 36. Topics for Discussion • Beyond Language for Communications • Here is how my AI, using my digital twin of you, predicted that you would respond to my request – could you please ask your digital twin of yourself to check this response and suggest improvements? • How to keep up with accelerating change? • Who do you follow? What two main dimensions do you try to balance? Hype-buster <-> Super-Optimist, Doing (Try this) <-> Knowing (News) • How to verify results of generative AI? • How to deal with verification challenge? Run Open AI ChatGPT 3.5, Google Bard (waiting for Gemini), Anthopic’s Claude, Microsoft Bing power by Open AI ChatGPT 4 – in parallel and have them critique each others’ responses (where they agree, where and how they differ) – if possible, also run Meta and open source to compare (Generate-Test-and- Debug) • How to deeply understand how generative AI works? • Monkey’s at the typewrite in high dimensional spaces that map to low dimensional spaces • One dimensional space is time – what comes next? (Predictors, unsupervised learning) • Two dimensional space is what people gravitate towards in business schools (Sorters, supervised learning)
  • 37. Today’s talk • Intro: AI (by 1955 definition) has arrived • Just took 68 years, but… • What’s really going on? • Your data is becoming your AI… IA transformation • AI Digital Twin = IA (Intelligence Augmentation) • Adjustment period underway… • Part 1: Solving AI: Leaderboards/Profession Exams • Roadmap and implications • Open technologies, innovation • Part 2: Solving IA: Better Building Blocks • Solving problems faster, creates new problems • Identity, social contracts, trust, resilience • Part 3: ”Solving All Problems” • What could go wrong? Be prepared. • 37-year long adjustment period is now underway… 11/27/2023 pohrer
  • 38. Predict the Timeline: GDP/Employee National Academy - Service Systems and AI 38 (Source) Lower compute costs translate into increasing productivity and GDP/employees for nations Increasing productivity and GDP/employees should translate into wealthier citizens AI Progress on Open Leaderboards Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA Alistair Nolan (OECD AI for Science Productivity): “It has been stated that the number of engineers proclaiming the end of Moore's Law doubles every two years.” Rouse WB, Spohrer JC. (2018) Automating versus augmenting intelligence. Journal of Enterprise Transformation. 2018 Apr 3;8(1-2):1-21. Read Rouse & Spohrer (2018) enough to understand this slide including what ”exascale” means 11/22/22 Part 1: Solving AI
  • 39. Types: Progression of Models : Verified, Trusted, Wise Models = instruction_set of future: Better building blocks 11/27/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 39 Task & World Model/ Planning & Decisions Self Model/ Capacity & Limits User Model/ Episodic Memory Institutions Model/ Trust & Social Acts Tool + - - - Assistant ++ + - - Collaborator +++ ++ + - Coach ++++ +++ ++ + Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++ Cognitive Tool Cognitive Assistant Cognitive Collaborator Cognitive Coach Cognitive Mediator Part 2: Solving IA Solving IA also requires All of this and done well As a “bicycle for the mind” To make us stronger, Not weaker When tech is all removed
  • 40. Resilience: Rapidly Rebuilding From Scratch • Dartnell L (2012) The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a Cataclysm. Westminster London: Penguin Books. 11/27/2023 Jim Spohrer (ISSIP) 40 Part 3: “Solving All Problems”
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  • 50. ANNEX