This document summarizes a presentation about cognitive systems and startup opportunities. It discusses how cognitive building blocks like machine learning, natural language processing, and question answering are improving rapidly. By 2035, it suggests cognitive mediators could help anyone build a question answering system for a textbook in a day. The presentation also discusses opportunities for startups in areas like cognitive assistants for various occupations. It envisions a future where most people have 100 digital workers managed by cognitive mediators that know people better than themselves.

1. Jim Spohrer (IBM)
Singularity University – NASA Research Park, Mountain View, CA
Friday July 8, 2016
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/cognitive-startups-20160708-v6
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Startup Opportunities for Cognitive Systems

2. $5M Prize
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I have…
Have you noticed how the building
blocks just keep getting better?

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6. IBM Cloud Bluemix:
Watson APIs are growing…
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So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

7. Societal Grand Challenges
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Solving these would mean we are smarter,
but would they mean we are wiser?

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9. IBM Research – Almaden
San Jose, CA USA
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10. IBM in Silicon Valley:
From Punch Cards….
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On August 22, 1943, 105 men, women and children,
among them 43 IBM employees, alighted from a special
train that carried them across the continent to establish
new homes and the new IBM Card Manufacturing Plant
Number 5 at 16th and St. John Streets, San Jose, CA.

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12. IBM in Silicon Valley:
To Brain Chips….
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13. IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive
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14. Machine
Learning
Natural
Language
Processing
High
Performance
Computing
Knowledge
Representation
and Reasoning
Question
Answering
Unstructured
Information

15. IBM Cloud Bluemix:
Watson APIs are growing…
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So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

16. 16
Cognitive Build

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I have…
Have you noticed how the building
blocks just keep getting better?

18. Learning to program:
My first program
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Early Computer Science Class:
Watson Center at Columbia 1945
Jim Spohrer’s
First Program 1972

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Fast Forward 2016:
Consider this…

20. Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016
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21. Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016
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22. IBM Image Tagging
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23. Courses
2015
– “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”
– 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy
– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject
2025
– “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”
– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week
2035
– “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”
– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day
– Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves
2055
– “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”
– Most people have 100 digital workers.
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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Can better service help us be wiser?
Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach

25. What exists in 2016?
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360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000

26. Reality 2.0 Service Platform:
polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2)
do not interrupt people (P1,P2)
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Service Platform
CM2
P2
CM1
P1
100x
100x 100x

27. By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great
Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators
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Empathy & Teamwork
sector
region/culture
discipline
Depth
Breadth
STEM
Liberal Arts

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What might Reality 2.0 look like?

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32. How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching?
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What might it look like?

33. Computing: Then, Now, Projected
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2035
2055

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Wise Service System:
All entities’ in network
use cognitive mediators
to enhance
value co-creation interactions
Cognitive Mediators:
Cognitive systems
with deep knowledge of both
customer (user) and provider (expert)
as co-creators of win-win value
Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions

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Cognitive Mediators
for all people in all roles

36. Occupations = Many Tasks
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37. Watson Discovery Advisor
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Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.
URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/

38. User Models
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39. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government

40. Two assertions
• Machines seem to be getting smarter fast.
– Agree/disagree?
• People do not seem to be getting wiser fast.
– Agree/disagree?
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Homo Sapiens means Wise Man: True/False?

41. IBM Cloud Bluemix:
Watson APIs are growing…
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So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

42. What is Industry 4.0?
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43. History of the idea: Mirror Worlds
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Why is this relevant?

45. I am still very skeptical…
but tell me more….
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47. Managers: Courage Required….
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48. Talent required, but…
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49. Industry 4.0
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50. CyberPhysical Systems?
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51. Industry 4.0
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54. Yesterday: Servitization
• Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”

55. Tomorrow: Servitization
• Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers
• Make the product part of a smart/wise service system
– Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything
– Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’
performance across their life-cycles
– Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product
performance, efficiency, maintenance, etc.
– Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with
financing/Internet of Service
– Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability
– Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability
• Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for
service innovation) for innovative university startups

56. Vision: MMaaRRSS
• Modular Manufacturing as a Regional
Recirculation Service System
– “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for
customer Y.”
– Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows
– Minimize transport costs (for products and waste)
• The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)

57. In Summary
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“A service science
perspective considers
the evolving ecology of
service system entities,
their value co-creation and
capability co-elevation
interactions, and their
capabilities, constraints,
rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive Systems
Entities
Service
Systems
Entities With
Cognitive
Mediators
Add Rights &
Responsibilities

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Explain external
phenomena

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Explain internal
phenomena

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Explain
value co-creation
phenomena

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Physics Chemistry Biology
Neuroscience Psychology Artificial
Intelligence
Engineering Management Public
Policy
Education Design Humanities
Natural Systems
Cognitive Systems
Service Systems

62. Sciences provide…
• Frameworks for people to ask and answer
questions systematically
• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”
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Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -
“To our children and children’s children,
to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world
that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”
Proenneke:
Alone in the Wilderness -
To do a thorough testing,
should each generation
be required to rapidly rebuild
from scratch?
A re-makers movement?

63. Some paths to becoming 64x smarter:
Improving learning and performance
• 2x from Learning sciences (methods)
– Better models of concepts
– Better models of learners
• 2x from Learning technology (tools)
– Guided learning paths
– Elimination of “thrashing”
• 2x from Quantity effect (overlaps)
– More you know, faster you go
– Advanced organizers
• 2x from Lifelong learning (time)
– Longer lives and longer careers
– Keeps “learning-mode” activated
• 2x from Early learning (time)
– Start earlier: Challenged-based approach
– STEM-2D in K-12 (SSME+DAPP Design of Smart Service Systems)
• 2x from Cognitive systems (performance support)
– Technology & Infrastructure Interactions
– Organizations & Others Interactions

64. Next Generation:
Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators
Many disciplines
Many sectors
Many regions/cultures
(understanding & communications)
Deepinonesector
Deepinoneregion/culture
Deepinonediscipline

65. Future-Ready T-Shapes
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66. Brief History
of AI
1956 – Dartmouth Conference
1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds
1981 – Japanese 5th Generation
1988 – Expert Systems Peak
1990 – AI Winter
1997 – Deep Blue
1997 – 2011 Real-World
2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI
2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute
2014 – Watson Business Unit &
True North Brain Chip
2015 – “Cognition as a Service”
on IBM Bluemix
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67. Cognitive Assistants for all occupations
are beginning to appear
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68. The Maker Movement &
Open Source Ecology
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Future of Skills

70. T-Shaped “Future Ready” Talent
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CSIG

72. Assisting individuals and organizations
to close their service innovation skills gap
and co-create wiser service systems
empowering employees, customers, citizens
with cognitive mediators
in the collaborative service economy

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74. Dedication: Doug Engelbart
Father of the mouse and
augmentation theory
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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Can better service help us be wiser?
Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach

76. But this stuff is still really hard…
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77. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government

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