LittleBig APF 2007: Verge: the little black dress of foresight methods
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A quick description of Bowman and Lum\'s Ethnographic Futures Framework (Verge), and suggestions for applying it throughout the foresight process.
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LittleBig APF 2007: Verge: the little black dress of foresight methods
- 1. Futures Mashups, or… Verge: the little black dress of futures tools. • An ethnographic futures framework: – – – – – Define Relate Connect Create Consume • Unique scanning taxonomy: point of impact (POI) rather than point of origin (POO), like STEEP or PESTLE.
- 2. Use it with your futures wheels! Define Relate Change / Emerging issue secondary effects impact Create impact impact primary effects Connect Consume
- 3. Strengthen your scenarios! A Virtue of Necessity The Rose Garden • First loyalties to family and local community; • Value balance and wellness; • Focus on life; • “Shabby green”: sustainability forced by economic limitations -- don’t have much so you don’t use much -innovations help. •Technology: assess health and environmental impacts before adopting • First loyalties to digital social network and communities of interest; • Value exploration and creativity; • Focus on transcending the life/work conflict; • “Green de luxe”: environmentalism, sustainability for design elegance and parsimony of system solutions; • Technology: embrace innovation, but take responsibility for impacts. • “A Nation of Tinkers with Virtual Allotments”: • Trevor Bayliss, Charlie Dimmock • “Cool Explorers on New Adventures”: • Kevin Warwick, Richard Branson Define loyalties to the company or organisation; • First • First loyalties to self; • Value security; • Wish for the luxury of choice regarding work/life balance; • “Conserving to cope”: no available capital to invest in retrofitting or entrepreneurial initiatives; •Technology: can’t afford the R&D -- or ameliorating any negative impacts. • “Tough choices require tough resolve” • Arthur Daley, Private Walker Tough Choices Comparing: • Where people invest loyalty; • What people value; • Position on work/life balance; • Value competition and winning; • Focus on work; • “Success first, sustainability later”: the trickle down approach -- only stable, surplus generating economy can afford sustainability; • Technology: adopt and adapt -- let someone else pay for R&D, and externalise the impacts where possible. • “Optimised Sharks in the Market” • “There is no society, there are only individuals.” Thatcher Boom and Blame •Sustainability and the environment; •Attitudes to technology • Who we are / indicative celebrity
- 4. Enrich and organise your visions! Define Relate secondary goals impact impact impact Create Connect Preferred future primary goals Consume • Layer with CLA to add depth: – – – – What’s the litany on the preferred future? What’s the systems / causal explanation? What worldviews / models inform it? What myths and metaphors express it?
- 5. Add specificity to strategy! Verge Define Relate Connect Create Consume S W O T Strategy
- 6. Add specificity to strategy! Verge Define Relate Connect Create Consume S W O T Strategy
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