This document outlines a study to understand how the freight industry values travel time reliability. The study aims to collect data through a stated preference survey of shippers and carriers. The survey will present hypothetical transportation scenarios varying attributes like travel time, cost, reliability and mode. Models will be developed to estimate the monetary value of reliability for different market segments. Insights from the study could help transportation planning and investment decisions that consider freight stakeholders' needs.

1. UNDERSTANDING THE VALUE
OF RELIABILITY FOR THE
FREIGHT INDUSTRY
FTAC Meeting
August 12th, 2015
Xia Jin
LCTR, FIU

2. Outline
 Background
 Purpose
 Objectives
 Challenges
 Stated Preference Survey
 Recruitment
 Experiment Design

3. Background
Growing
demand for
freight
transportation
Better
understanding
of freight
behavior
Increasing role
of reliability
in freight
transportation

4. Purpose
 Value of Reliability (VOR) refers to the monetary
value users place on reliability, or how much the
users are willing to pay to reduce the variability of
travel time.
 It is a critical parameter in benefit-cost analysis,
and transportation planning to measure the
monetary equivalency of improvements in reliability.
 This study aims to understand how the freight
community value travel time reliability in their
transportation decisions.

5. Benefits to the Community
 Support investment decisions that reflect the needs
of freight stakeholders
 better understanding of how the users (shippers and
carriers) respond to changes in reliability
 tools to evaluate alternative freight management and
operational strategies.

6. Project Objectives
 Review existing studies on VOR and identify knowledge
and data gap;
 Conduct stated preference survey to understand user
decision-making;
 Develop models to estimate VOR by stratification, such
as, commodity type, trip length, and business type, etc.
 Incorporate VOR in freight analysis and project evaluation.

7. Stated Preference (SP) Survey
 SP surveys are designed to collect preference
information from the users through hypothetical
scenarios.
 Recruitment Stage
 Background information
 One recent shipment information
 SP Scenarios
 Eight to nine scenarios, each consists of 2 or 3
alternatives

8. Proposed Market Segment - Shippers
Light Medium Heavy
Yes X X X X X X
Delivery
Window
Pressure
X X
Truck
Non-
perishable
No X X X X
Yes X X X X X X
Perishable
No X X X X X X
Shippers
Rail
Water
ways
Air

9. Proposed Market Segment - Carriers
Carriers
Truck Rail
Water
-ways
AirShipping
Distance
Light Medium Heavy
Shipping
Distance
Containerized
<50 Miles X X X
<300
Miles
X
X X
50-300
Miles
X X X
300+
Miles
X X X 300-
1000
Miles
X
Non-
Containerized
<50 Miles X X X
50-300
Miles
X X X
> 1000
Miles
X
300+
Miles
X X X

10. Experimental Design
 C1 –within-mode trade-offs among travel time, cost and
reliability;
 C2 –within-mode trade-offs among travel time, cost,
reliability, and departure time;
 C3 –cross-mode trade-offs between roadway and
railway shipment based on travel time, cost, travel time
reliability, service flexibility and probability of
shipment damage.
 C4 –cross-mode trade-offs between roadway and
railway based on travel time, cost, travel time
reliability, departure time, service flexibility and
probability of shipment damage.

11. Design
Flow

12. Recruitment
Instrument –
Shipment
Information

13. Recruitment
Instrument –
Background
Information

14. Experiment Design
Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3
Mean Transit Time : 10 hrs Mean Transit Time: 15 hrs Mean Transit Time: 12.5 hrs
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
4.5 hours early
2 hours early
On time
5 hours late
10 hours late
( Hints : very high reliability)
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
6 hour early
3 hour early
On-time
4.5 hours late
9 hour late
( Hints : low reliability)
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
3.5 hour early
On-time
On-time
3 hour late
3 hour late
( Hints : medium reliability )
Cost : $875 Cost : $250 Cost : $400
I prefer this option I prefer this option I prefer this option
C1

15. Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3
Departure time :
Morning : Before 6:00 AM or
after 10:00 AM, Or
Afternoon : Before 3:00 PM
or after 7:00 PM
Departure time : Between
6:00 AM and 10:00 AM
(morning) or Between 3:00
Pm and 7:00 PM (noon)
Departure time :
Morning : Before 6:00 AM or
after 10:00 AM, Or
Afternoon : : Before 3:00 PM
or after 7:00 PM
Mean Transit Time : 8 hrs Mean Transit Time: 12.5 hrs Mean Transit Time: 10 hrs
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
1 hour early
1 hour early
On time
On time
1 hour late
( Hints : high reliability)
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
6 hour early
4 hour early
On-time
5.5 hours late
12.5 hour late
( Hints : very low reliability)
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
0.5 hour early
On-time
On-time
On-time
1 hour late
( Hints : medium reliability )
Cost : $500 Cost : $400 Cost : $750
I prefer this option I prefer this option I prefer this option
C2

16. Road Rail
Mean Transit Time : 10 hrs Mean Transit Time: 20 hrs
The shipment has an equal chance of
arriving at any of the following time :
3 hour early
On time
On time
2 hour late
2 hour late
( Hints : high reliability)
The shipment has an equal chance of arriving at
any of the following time :
3 hour early
3 hour early
On-time
On-time
2 hour late
( Hints : medium reliability )
Cost : $500 Cost : $280
Service Flexibility : Medium Service Flexibility : High
Probability of Shipment Damage : Medium Probability of Shipment Damage : Low
I prefer this option I prefer this option
C3

17. C4
Road Rail Road
Departure time : Between
6:00 AM and 10:00 AM
(morning) or Between 3:00
Pm and 7:00 PM (noon)
Departure time :
Morning : Before 6:00 AM or
after 10:00 AM, Or
Afternoon : Before 3:00 PM
or after 7:00 PM
Departure time :
Morning : Before 6:00 AM or
after 10:00 AM, Or
Afternoon : Before 3:00 PM
or after 7:00 PM
Mean Transit Time : 12.5 hrs Mean Transit Time: 15 hrs Mean Transit Time: 8 hrs
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
3.5 hour early
On time
On time
3 hours late
3 hours late
( Hints : high reliability)
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
1 hour early
On-time
On-time
On-time
2 hours late
( Hints : very low reliability)
The shipment has an equal
chance of arriving at any of
the following time :
1 hour early
1 hour early
On-time
On-time
1 hour late
( Hints : Medium reliability )
Cost : $500 Cost : $625 Cost : $750
Service flexibility : Medium Service flexibility : Medium Service flexibility : Low
Probability of Shipment
damage : Medium
Probability of Shipment
damage : Medium
Probability of Shipment
damage : Medium
I prefer this option I prefer this option I prefer this option