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- 1. No way, José! Yet another crisis? What?? WATER??!!??
- 2. Megatrends, global water crisis, challenges: What is the value of our science? Is there any solution? András SZÖLLÖSI-NAGY National University of Public Service, Budapest, Hungary UNESCO International Hydrological Programme Sustainable Water Futures Programme, Brisbane, Australia
- 4. WATER AS THE CENTER PIECE OF THE SDGs
- 6. (Photo: NASA) The world’s freshwater: HOW MUCH WE HAVE? Lakes and rivers •41,000 km3 •The James Bond phenomenon .007
- 8. GLOBAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES Relation between water availability and population
- 9. TRENDS OF NON-SUSTAINABLE WATER USE [1000 KM3/YR]
- 10. Rockström, et al., Nature, 2009 DNV GL Report 2014
- 13. 13
- 14. LOOMING WATER CRISES The time of easy water is over
- 15. Drinking-water MDGDrinking-water MDG The world is ALMOSTThe world is ALMOST on track,on track, butbut …… Source: WHO/UNICEF 2010
- 16. Area proportional with non-access to drinking water 2011
- 17. Many countries not on track to reach MDG sanitation target
- 18. Water security key challenges of the 21st century people lack access to safe water and 2.5 billion to adequate sanitation. 750 million human beings are killed each year from water related‐ disasters and diseases. 6-8 million of the human population live in arid areas. By 2030, half of the population will be living in areas of high water stress. 85% of the world’s total wastewater is discharged without adequate or any treatment. 85% transboundary aquifers shared by 2-4 countries 600 decline in population of freshwater species in just thirty years. 50 % Source: Data collected by UNESCO-IHP a and IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM
- 19. SUPERIMPOSED ON ALL THIS …
- 20. The climate is changing !!! (Yap, for 4 billion years now …) 20 HEADLINE NEWS!!!!!
- 21. NEGATIVE IMPACT
- 22. Number of natural disaster events since 1900 to 2007 Total Water- related Earth-quake Numbero 500 events/year 400 300 200 100 0
- 23. 23 • Is the cycle changing? • Increased risks? • Growing vulnerability? • More disasters ? • Less waterforpeople? • Crisis is looming? • What crisis? • Resource? • Governance? • Global orlocal? GLOBAL WATER CYCLE ISSUES
- 24. Maurits Cornelis Frans Escher Water cycle No begin and no end!
- 26. GOVERNANCE: Doing the right things MANAGEMENT: Doing things right 26
- 27. Does the cycle accelerate? Is it measurable?
- 28. THE DRIVERS
- 29. • The world’s population has increased 3-fold • Water withdrawal has increased 6-fold • The area of cropland has almost doubled • The area of pasture has decreased by about 75% • The area covered by tropical forests has decreased by about 25%. • Dams now intercept ca. 40% of the runoff from the continents KEY CHANGES SINCE 1900
- 30. An example: Imagine a Place Where • 96% of the population has no electricity • 30% of the population has no toilets or outhouses • 70% of the population must go 300 yards for water • Less the 30% of the population read newspapers • Over 60% of the horsepower required is from horses/ 6% from electric stations • More then 90% have no lighting • More then 90% no refrigeration – thus loss of more then 25% of meat • Most live on subsistence farming • Over used ruined soil • Flooding serious and repetitive to soil and cities THIS IS NOT AN LDC TODAY – IT IS THE TENNESSE VALLEY, USA, IN 1935 (Source: J.D. Priscoli)
- 31. 1950 Source: U.N. Population Division World Cities exceeding 5 million residents
- 32. 2015 Source: U.N. Population Division World Cities exceeding 5 million residents
- 33. Global change drivers: • Population growth, movement, migration and age structures • Geo-political changes and realignments • Trade and subsidies • Technological changes • Climate change U.S.Bureauofthe Census
- 34. 34
- 35. 35
- 36. 36
- 37. 37
- 39. THE GREAT MIGRATION WAVES OF THE PAST 100,00 YEARS
- 41. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND: CENTRAL PARK-NEW YORK WEST POINT ACADEMY
- 42. Climate change: What do we know? • Global Mean Temperature have increased • Greenhouse Gases play a role • Reducing Emissions alone will not avoid impacts
- 43. Climate change is effecting our environment, our societies and our cultures (Source: IPCC)
- 44. WILL WE HAVE MORE FLOODS ? Expected Impacts of Global Changes on Water Resources
- 45. Water hazards and related nexi are major challenges Intensifying and increasing occurrence of water related hazard in many part of the world Serious concern on climate change such as extreme hydrologic events and sea level rise
- 46. Korea Czech ドイツ China Nepal India Bangladesh Bolivia Haiti/ Jamaica Uruguay USA Mexico Ecuador Peru Micronesia Philippines Indonesia Vietnam Senegal Ethiopia Turkey Austria Kenya France Afghanistan Russia Sri Lanka Flood Drought Major floods and droughts worldwideMajor floods and droughts worldwide Germany China USA KoreaChinaGermany Kenya There is pressing need to develop advanced risk management on water hazard in order to secure human life and ensure sustainable socio- economic development and poverty alleviation.
- 47. Flood Disaster in Pakistan (August, 2010)
- 48. Flood Disaster in Korea (September 21, 2010)
- 49. Rio de Janneiro, Brasil (January, 2011)
- 50. Flood Disaster in Brisbane, Australia (January, 2011)
- 52. ORSZÁGOS MŰSZAKI IRÁNYÍTÓ TÖRZS (OMIT) 2006. március 30 - április 17. Budapest FLOODS
- 53. 53
- 54. FLOOD LOSSES IN FUNCTION OF GDP
- 55. Building your Future 20 november 2008
- 56. (Source : MLIT) Fukuoka Flash Flood in 1999
- 57. Fukuoka flash flood simulation Volume of water entered into underground space: •2,017 m3 (simulated volume) •1,320 m3 (total pumped water At Hakata station (Source: Herat, UNU) Urban expansion taking place downward Underground flood risk Recent developments Long term risks are not experienced
- 58. ARIDITY
- 59. NOT TOO MUCH HOPE ... UNLESS POLITICAL LEADERS STICK TO THE PARIS AGREEMENT
- 61. 61
- 62. CLIMATE CHANGE IS ALL ABOUT WATER
- 63. KEY TO SUSTAINABILITY CLIMATE ADAPTIVE WATER STRATEGIES 63
- 64. DO WE HAVE A CHOICE? WE NEED TO INCREASE THE RESILIENCE OF OUR SYSTEMS 64
- 66. ADAPTATION OPTIONS: MORE STORAGE MORE HYDROPOWER MORE GROUNDWATER USE MORE INLAND NAVIGATION MORE CONSERVATION INTERBASIN WATER TRANSFER BETTER WATER GOVERNANCE BUT AREN’T THESE CONTRADICTORY?
- 68. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 year percentage -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 rainfall variation around the mean GDP growth -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 year percentage -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 rainfall variation around the mean GDP growth R a i -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Years RealGDPgrowth(%) -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 VariabilityinRainfall(Meter) Real GDPgrow th (%) Variability in Rainfall (Meter) Rainfall & GDP growth: Zimbabwe 1978-1993 Economy-wide impacts Ethiopia: 1982 - 2000
- 69. WE WILL NEED MORE STORAGE 69 STORAGE ISTHE NEXUS BETWEEN WATER/FOOD/ENERGY
- 70. 43 746 1,287 1,406 2,486 3,255 4,729 6,150 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Ethiopia South Africa Thailand Laos China Brazil Australia North America Water storage per person (m3) Infrastructure gap: Water storage [m3/person]
- 71. 2 10 25 50 100 >100 Stored Runoff < 2% annual flow 1800 20001900 • 700% increase in water held by river systems • Several years of residence time change in many basins • Tripling of river runoff travel times globally (from 20 up to 60 days) • Substantial impact on aquatic biodiversity • Interception of 30% of continental TSS flux 1950 2000 History of US Dam & Reservoir Construction From: Vörösmarty et al. 2004, Eos-AGU Trans.
- 72. Global change impacts • Global change is more than global climate variability/change • It has natural PLUS human/social dimensions • A constellation of changes, many global in domain For example, we see large changes in: NOAA Vitousek (1994) Mackenzieetal (2002) Richards(1991),WRI (1990) Reid&Miller (1989)
- 73. From: Steffen et al. 2004
- 74. 74 STATIONARITY IS DEAD The story of the 200-year flood New technologies are needed
- 75. ANTROPOCEN
- 76. The Earth System: Coupling the Physical, Biogeochemical and Human Components
- 77. 2 4 3 5 6 1 0 GlobalTemperature(°C) IPCC Projections for 2100 N.H.Temperature(°C) 0 0.5 1 -0.5 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Lower Risk for Instabilities High Risk for Instabilities
- 78. Does the cycle accelerate? Probably … but …
- 81. 81
- 82. WAROVERWATER?
- 83. The Indus River and the Ganges Brahmaputra-Maghna River Basin
- 84. The Aral Sea basin
- 86. The Tigris Euphrates basin
- 87. The Nile River basin The Jordan River basin
- 88. THE DATA ISSUE
- 89. IF YOU CAN’T MEASURE IT (NEAR) REAL TIME AND IF YOU DON’T HAVE THE RIGHT DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY YOU CAN’T MANAGE IT89
- 90. DATA SECRECY: NEW TECHNOLOGIES OFFER NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR TRUST BUILDING 90
- 91. (Source: D. Solomatine) 91 Remotely sensed data
- 92. urce: D. SolomatineSo Flow of information in a Hydroinformatics systems Earth observation, monitoring Numerical Weather Prediction Models Data modelling, integration with hydrologic and hydraulic models Access to modelling results Data Models Knowledge Decisions Decision support Map of flood probability
- 93. 93
- 94. 94 Landsat images Tile squares space time “Cubing” Landsat images Dice… Stack
- 95. BIG DATA 95Terra bytes Petabytes Exabytes … Terra Hertz speed Data revolution:
- 97. . 97 Modeling is the heart … 0 2 =+− ∂ ∂ + ∂ ∂ + ∂ ∂ fo gASgAS x h gA A Q xt Q Technologies support the whole information cycle, and integrate data, models, and humans
- 99. High Precision Earth Systems Tools •Satellite data •Data assimilation •Simulation models •Geospatial analysis / GIS Huge progress but…
- 100. Our capacity to monitor remains limited
- 101. LOOMING WATER CRISES The time of easy water is indeed over
- 102. Where do we go from here?
- 103. LESSONS
- 104. WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WATER FOR THE HUMANS AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY?
- 105. WE NEED SOLUTIONS NOW YES, BUT 105
- 107. We need to generate… • The political will to … DO IT • The capacity to … DO IT RIGHT • The resources to … DO IT RIGHT NOW It is part of the answeronly ….
- 108. WATER IS AN ETHICAL ISSUE 108
- 109. The poorest are theThe poorest are the most vulnerablemost vulnerable
- 111. The challenge we all have How to put water in the minds of people?
- 112. Budapest Water Summits 2013, 2016, 2019 Sustainable Development Goals Follow Up WATER CONNECTS
- 113. “Anybody who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes, one for peace and one for science.” (President John. F. Kennedy) 113 FINAL MESSAGE:
Editor's Notes
- First, a review of the MDGs – the eight goals. In my view these goals really reflect a poor persons agenda – a truly human development agenda – reflecting the most important capabilities. They translate HD into simple and meaningful objectives. They address some of the most enduring problems of poverty in terms of peoples’ lives. It’s an agenda for eradicating poverty – human poverty not just income poverty – in the world. So what’s new? Four things. First, these goals have quantitative specific targets. Second, they are time bound. And third, there is a political commitment and agreement. That makes MDGs a new powerful force for change, for accelerating the pace of development. Fourth and finally, these goals put poverty and human development at as the bottom line of the agenda for international cooperation. It reminds us all that things like macroeconomic stability, expanding trade, and indeed economic growth are means to this ultimate end of reducing global poverty, and challenges rich countries to focus their aid, trade and financial policies to this end.
- 97.5% of all water on the globe is marine 80% of what is left is caught in ice caps and the permafrost 80% of what is left is groundwater What remains is 0.07%
- In 2009, an international team of 29 researchers from 8 countries and 27 different institutions published a study that tried to identify areas where human activities could possibly lead to a shift in the behavior of the earth system (a “tipping point”), and to quantify the level of human activity beyond which the risk of such a large-scale change becomes too high. Of course, “too high” is a normative term; the point of departure for the analysis was that we wanted to minimize the risk that human activities would move the earth system outside the range of stability it has exhibited during the last 10,000 years. This study has become known as the “Planetary Boundaries” paper, and has been widely reported on in popular science and other media. This particular graphic comes from a recent (and very good) report from DNV-GL (one of the top three certification bodies in the world, the leading technical advisor to the global oil and gas industry, and a leading expert for the energy value chain including renewables and energy efficiency) titled “Safe & Sustainable Future: Enabling The Transition”.
- Let’s start with some good news -The world is on track to meet the MDG drinking water target. Since 1990, 1.8 billion people gained access to an improved drinking water source and in 2008 the number of people without access is 883 million. However, this map shows some clear regional disparities – in particular, sub-Saharan Africa is lagging behind. In the light of population growth additional millions people need to gain access to safe water to meet the MDG target, which refers to the proportion of people with access to safe drinking-water as the yardstick.
- The challenges
- Authors, please select example graphs which are appropriate for your presentation. NOTE: More graphs (Climate, Land Cover, Notrous oxide and Overfishing) are available in the ’Extra Slides’ file. Sources: Nitrogen: Vitousek PM (1994) Beyond global warming: Ecology and global change. Ecology 75: 1861-1876 Species Extinction Reid WVC, Miller KR (1989) The scientific basis for the conservation of biodiversity. World Resources Institute, Washington DC. Note: temperature graph shows temperature anomaly of global average temperature from the 1960-91 mean.
- Water availability a traditional problem in the Central Asian states. It is produced upstream but consumed downstream. Therefore we are concentrating on one of the downstream irrigated areas