Presentation by Michalis Vousdoukas, European Joint Research Centre, Italy, at the Symposium Knowledge and Innovation for Decision Making, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2017. Friday, 27 October 2017, Delft.

1. LISCoAsT – Large scale Integrated Sea-level and
Coastal Assessment Tool
Michalis Vousdoukas, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Luc Feyen
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
1

2. Disaster Risk Management Unit
Directorate E1, Joint Research Centre, EC
Activity on river floods:
European/Global Flood Awareness System (EFAS/GLOFAS)
Climate change projections (Alfieri L., Rojas R., Feyen L)
Coastal floods group:
Michalis Vousdoukas, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Dimitrios Bouziotas, Francesco Dottori,
Thomas Montblanc, Georgia Kakoylaki, Luc Feyen
2

3. Coastal risks and challenges
Hansen ACPD, 2015
IPCC 2013
UN 2010
1 billion in 1800
2 billion in 1920
4 billion in 1975
7 billion now
• >50% of EU population lives within 50 km of the coast
• 44% of global population lives within 100 km of the coast (UN Atlas 2010)
• A great proportion below 10 m elevation

4. 4
Climate risk - framework
SREX, IPCC (2012)

5. Impact
VulnerabilityExposure
Hazard
Coastal erosion and
inundation
TWL + Inundation
SLR, Tide, Waves, Storm
Surge
CMIP5
TOPEX-
POSEIDON
Delft3D 4 WW3 Delft3D FMXBeach
LISFLOOD-FP
Socio-economic
drivers
Land Use Scenarios
Adaptation
The LISCoAsT approach

6. HAZARD PROJECTIONS
The LISCoAsT approach

7. State of the art hazard assessment
Waves Tides-Storm surgeSea level rise
Inundation
Coastal Impacts
Climate

8. Sea level extremes: Tropical cyclones

9. http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST

10. Sea level extremes:
Global wave model
Model used: WaveWatch3 v4.18
Generates waves from wind fields
Resolves all wave directions and frequencies
Considers several parameters including
temperature, ice concentration
http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST

11. European TWL projections: Climate extremes

12. European TWL projections: All components

13. European TWL projections: Changes in frequency
http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST

14. SLR projections
Jevrejeva et al. (2016)

15. TWL projections: Climate extremes

16. Intensification of extreme events Future frequency of present day 100 year event: 12.8 (3oC) 3.6 (4oC)

17. Intensification of extreme total water levels

20. Coastal Inundation on Global scale
• TWL components estimated every 25 km of coast
• SRTM DEM
• Similarly coastline and all data divided in 25 km long
segments, extending 50 km inland
wavestormsurgetideMSLTWL RSLR  

21. Compound events
2 m Storm surge
80 m3/s Peak discharge
Max water depth
Only coastal: 2.1 m
Only river: 0.5 m
Compound: 2.5 m

22. EXPOSURE-VULNERABILITY
The LISCoAsT approach

23. 23
 2006 land use map, 100x100 m
 EU27 + EFTA + Turkey + Balkan
 45 thematic classes
 Refined CORINE land use
 Soil Sealing Layer
 TeleAtlas®
 Urban Atlas
 2006 population map, 100x100 m
 EU27 + EFTA
 SSPs
Exposure: current land use and population
Batista e Silva, F., Lavalle, C., Koomen, E., 2013. A procedure to
obtain a refined European land use/cover map. Journal of
Land Use Science, 8 (3), pp. 255-283.
Batista e Silva, F., J. Gallego, C. Lavalle, 2013. A high-resolution
population grid map for Europe. Journal of Maps, 9, 16-28.

24. Mapping of large infrastructures and key
economic assets
24
• Non renewable Power Plants (MW)
• Electricity distribution lines (km)
• Unesco cultural sites (number)
• Social infrastructure (number)
• Ports/Airports (No People Served)
• Transport networks (No People Served)
• Urban transport (No People Served)
Railway networkTransmission lines Ports

25. PROJECTIONS OF COASTAL IMPACTS FOR
EUROPE
Results

26. Projections of EAD for RCP4.5 and 8.5
Only direct impacts!

27. Coastal impacts- Socio-economic vs Physical

28. Need for adaptation

29. SIDS: projected impacts

30. SUMMARY AND WORK IN PROGRESS:
Closing Remarks

31. What is really at stake?
• The ocean absorbs >90% of the increase in energy
• Past sea levels under +1.5-2oC were 6-10 m higher than present
• Expansion of sea water per oC of warming is greater at higher
temperature and higher pressure
Hawkins, MetOffice, 2016

32. What is really at stake?
Climate
River floods
Heat waves
Cold waves
Draughts
Wildfires
Windstorms
Crops
Fisheries
Coastal floods
Impacts
SLR
River floods: 0.04% GDP  0.1% GDP
Coastal floods: 0.01% GDP  0.29-0.86% GDP

33. Intangible/indirect impacts
www.wikipedia.org
Coastline (km) GDP Expenses GDPratio
Jamaica 894 14 0.7599 5.43%
NL 2000 752 1.7 0.23%

34. Adaptation and social justice
James G. Titus and Michael Craghan (2009) http://porterbriggs.com/
• Need to acknowledge the challenging nature of coastal adaptation in view of
climate change
• Urgency of moving towards the direction of a timely response, taking coordinated
and fair measures

35. Summary
• LISCOAST: A flexible coastal impact assessment tool
• Large scale, but not oversimplified
• A collection of open access papers and datasets
• Projected intensification of ESLs towards the end of the century
• Increase of EA losses by one or two orders of magnitude
• Climate change appears to dominate socio-economic development in terms of
impacts

36. Pressure on the coast: Population
Thank you very much…
www.vousdoukas.com
http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST