The document discusses the challenges of food production in the context of increasing global population and demand for grain-intensive livestock products, highlighting the conflict between food and biofuel production. It addresses significant issues such as water scarcity, aquifer depletion, and potential food shortages due to overextraction of resources. Additionally, it introduces the concept of planetary boundaries, emphasizing the need to understand and manage human activities within the planet's ecological limits.

1. Milano, 29 giugno 2010 Rethinking Food Production Within Planetary Boundaries Gianfranco Bologna Scientific Director and Head Sustainability and Education WWF Italy

3. GROWING DEMAND World population is increasing by 79 million annually Some 3 billion people desire to move up the food chain and eat more grain-intensive livestock products Food vs. Fuel: Expanding biofuel production means that cars and people compete for crops Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

4. WATER SHORTAGES Between 1950 and 2000, world water use tripled Some 70% of water use is for irrigation Overextraction is leading to disappearing lakes and rivers failing to reach the sea Aquifer depletion is causing water tables to fall and wells to go dry 175 million Indians, 130 million Chinese are fed with grain produced by overpumping Since the overpumping of aquifers is occurring in many countries more or less simultaneously, the depletion of aquifers and the resulting harvest cutbacks could come at roughly the same time, creating potentially unmanageable food scarcity. Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

8. PB CONCEPT RESTS ON THREE BRANCHES OF SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY Earth System and sustainability science (Understanding Earth System processes; ICSU, IGBP, ESSP, IPCC, MEA, evolution of sustainability science…) Scale of human action in relation to the capacity of the planet to sustain it (Kenneth Boulding Spaceship Earth, Herman Daly, Club of Rome, Ecological Economics reserach agenda, Ecological Footprint...) Shocks and Abrupt change in Social-Ecological systems from local to global scales (Resilience, GAIA, tipping elements, guardrails...) Planetary Boundaries concept

9. Climate Change < 350 ppm CO 2 < 1W m 2 (350 – 500 ppm CO 2 ; 1-1.5 W m 2 ) Ozone depletion < 5 % of Pre-Industrial 290 DU (5 - 10%) Global Freshwater Use <4000 km 3 /yr (4000 – 6000 km 3 /yr) Rate of Biodiversity Loss < 10 E/MSY (< 10 - < 1000 E/MSY) Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles Limit industrial fixation of N 2 to 35 Tg N yr -1 (25 % of natural fixation) (25%-35%) P < 10× natural weathering inflow to Oceans (10× – 100×) Atmospheric Aerosol Loading To be determined Land System Change ≤ 15 % of land under crops (15-20%) Chemical Pollution Plastics, Endocrine Desruptors, Nuclear Waste Emitted globally To be determined Planetary Boundaries